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Thread: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

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    Default ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5099980

    NBA cap projection higher than thought
    By Chris Sheridan
    ESPN.com
    Archive
    NEW YORK -- The New York Knicks and other teams hoarding salary-cap space got some good news Friday when they were told at the league's Board of Governors meeting that the projected 2010-11 salary cap will be $56.1 million.
    That figure was $2 million to $3 million more than most teams had been expecting, and for the Knicks it ensures they have enough cap space this summer to sign two maximum-salary free agents.
    "That's a lot of money. That's good," said Knicks president Donnie Walsh, who attended the meeting to learn the results of the Knicks' draft position through a tiebreaker.
    Because of the worldwide economic downturn, the league had warned teams last July to expect the salary cap to be significantly lower -- perhaps as low as $51 million.
    Other teams that will be positively affected by Friday's news include the Nets, Heat, Wizards, Bulls, Clippers and Timberwolves.
    Chris Sheridan is an ESPN.com NBA senior writer.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Helps every team I would imagine

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    This helps more teams stay under the salary cap and gives us more options of sending a contract out without getting the same in return.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Does this put us back under the LT threshold?

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    does this means that they are going to resing Watson and give him a long contract?

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    Does this put us back under the LT threshold?
    If not under, it puts the Pacers very close to it. The luxury tax will be around $68 millions. The Pacers are about $1 million above that with rookies+Price+McRoberts/without Head+Watson. Fairly easy to find something to put them under the threshold.

    Not surprised by this. Always thought the catastrophic speech about the economic situation of the NBA was a bit out of touch with reality. From a projected 5% drop to a 0.5% drop in BRI... pretty large difference.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    I will leave it to count55's analysis on how this will impact the Team....but ( as everyone says )...this will give us some breathing room.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slu...tigation041610

    With the NBA projecting a much more robust salary cap for next season than initially expected, the Players Association plans to investigate whether the league engaged in collusion, a source close to the union told Yahoo! Sports on Friday afternoon.

    After the NBA released a memo last July that warned teams the salary cap for the 2010-11 season could drop as far as $50.6 million, the union countered the projection could be a mechanism to scare teams from signing free agents.

    “A memo of this nature can have a chilling effect on the market for free agent and rookie signings,” Hunter said last July. “If it later turns out that the league did not have a good faith basis for making these projections, the NBPA will pursue all available legal remedies, including a treble damages claim for collusion.”


    NBA Commissioner David Stern told teams at the league’s board of governor’s meeting on Friday in New York that revenue hadn’t decreased as much as expected and the projected cap for next season is $56.1 million. That’s still a drop from this season’s $57.7 million, but not nearly as much as the league initially projected.


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    “A memo of this nature can have a chilling effect on the market for free agent and rookie signings,” Hunter said last July. “If it later turns out that the league did not have a good faith basis for making these projections, the NBPA will pursue all available legal remedies, including a treble damages claim for collusion.”
    Good Lord. The entire rest of the world was losing houses, jobs, investments, tightening their belts, and going through major attitude adjustments. The NBPA is going to get pissy that the NBA decided to issue a conservative warning based on the rest of the economy?

    You know, I think it means sports figures aren't any more exempt from the "if your income is 7 figures or more you just don't quite get it" mentality than the owners are.
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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    I will leave it to count55's analysis on how this will impact the Team....but ( as everyone says )...this will give us some breathing room.
    Not really. Count has our payroll for next year at $65.7m. That's for 12 players.
    http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?t=46729 Post #29.

    Counts projections for next year were a $53m cap, and a $65m tax line. Both will move up about three million if the new projections hold.

    If the tax line moves to $68m you would think we would have about $2.3m to sign 2 or 3 players. The rub is we have the 10th pick in the draft and guess how much that player will make. Just about $2.3m. That's not counting second round players. So we are right at the tax line if it comes in as projected.
    Last edited by Will Galen; 04-16-2010 at 04:55 PM.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    Not really. Count has our payroll for next year at $65.7m. That's for 12 players.

    Counts projections for next year were a $53m cap, and a $65m tax line. Both will move up about three million if the new projections hold.

    If the tax line moves to $68m you would think we would have about $2.3m to sign 2 or 3 players. The rub is we have the 10th pick in the draft and guess how much that player will make. Just about $2.3m. That's not counting second round players. So we are right at the tax line if it comes in as projected.
    How many Players does that include with guaranteed Contracts?

    I assume that includes picking up McRoberts unguaranteed Contract?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    How many Players does that include with guaranteed Contracts?

    I assume that includes picking up McRoberts unguaranteed Contract?
    Yes, but we have to have 14 players, and McRoberts won't even make a million dollars. I think the Pacers will pick his option up.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    Not really. Count has our payroll for next year at $65.7m. That's for 12 players.
    http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?t=46729 Post #29.

    Counts projections for next year were a $53m cap, and a $65m tax line. Both will move up about three million if the new projections hold.

    If the tax line moves to $68m you would think we would have about $2.3m to sign 2 or 3 players. The rub is we have the 10th pick in the draft and guess how much that player will make. Just about $2.3m. That's not counting second round players. So we are right at the tax line if it comes in as projected.
    I think the point is that clearing $1M or thereabouts is a LOT easier than clearing $3-4M.

    You can clear $1M of salary just by being on the high side of an allowed trade with a team over the cap, given the 125% rule and the other team's own better position in regards to the LT.
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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    Yes, but we have to have 14 players, and McRoberts won't even make a million dollars. I think the Pacers will pick his option up.
    the minimum roster size is 13 now. so if worst comes to worst, we could just add the 10th pick and we're done.

    i imagine we'll look at trades to get a bit more flexibility though. maybe murphy or ford for a slightly smaller expiring contract? as cordobes says it shouldn't be too hard to make that sort of move.

    depending on how we do, we might even be able to offer watson a better than minimum contract. though i'm hoping we could get a better pg in trade.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    The salary cap is estimated at 56.1M and the LT is typically about 12.2M more putting it at 68.3M for next year. Our current salary obligation for next year is 65.7M. Our first rounder will cost us 1.865M and the second rounders at 473,604. This puts us right at about $68.5M, or just slightly over the cap. If Dallas does not send us their draft pick this year, we will be slightly under it looks like. Sorry these are just estimates

    65,705,857 (sham sports) + 1,865,300 (hoops hype) + 473, 604 + 473,604 (Larry Coon's figure for minimum salary first year player) = 68,518,365


    68,518,365 - 68,300,000 (NBA LT estimate) = 218,365 over the luxury tax amount

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by pacergod2 View Post
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    The salary cap is estimated at 56.1M and the LT is typically about 12.2M more putting it at 68.3M for next year. Our current salary obligation for next year is 65.7M. Our first rounder will cost us 1.865M and the second rounders at 473,604. This puts us right at about $68.5M, or just slightly over the cap. If Dallas does not send us their draft pick this year, we will be slightly under it looks like. Sorry these are just estimates

    65,705,857 (sham sports) + 1,865,300 (hoops hype) + 473, 604 + 473,604 (Larry Coon's figure for minimum salary first year player) = 68,518,365


    68,518,365 - 68,300,000 (NBA LT estimate) = 218,365 over the luxury tax amount
    The draft pick will probably be 20% higher than that. The slot is the mid-point, and the draft picks can be signed for anywhere between 20% below and 20% above. The vast majority of picks sign for the max, which would be about $2,238.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    It's fairly simple and will probably happen anyway. Ford will be bought out at a figure that will give the pacers LT room and he will easily make that up by signing a $1-2M contract somewhere else.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    the minimum roster size is 13 now. so if worst comes to worst, we could just add the 10th pick and we're done.
    True, but the NBA also guarantees a league-wide average of at least 14 players per team. The league is surcharged if they do not meet this obligation. The Pacers probably/might be able to get away with it though.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    David Aldridge makes an excellent point, explaining why maybe the higher salary cap and tax threshold isn't such a great thing.


    http://www.nba.com/2010/news/feature...9/morning.tip/

    David Aldridge

    Friday's announcement by the commish following the Board of Governors meeting that the league's salary cap projection for next season is now a much healthier $56.1 million instead of the $50 to $53 million the league had predicted last summer was a potential game-changer for a number of teams that planned to be players in the 2010 offseason. Not only that, but with an increase in the luxury tax threshhold likely to follow, fewer teams will be writing checks -- for less money -- for exceeding the luxury threshhold. And some owners were counting on being able to pocket that additional loot.

    Was it good news? Yes, in the sense that it meant teams did a yeomans work selling more tickets, sponsorships, suites, etc. than the league thought possible a year ago, and limited the damage done as the recession finally seemed to be ebbing. Even though the cap is still going to go down compared to last year's $57 million, a drop of two-tenths of a percent is not at all bad.

    But it was bad news in the sense that owners remain as determined as ever to force major concessions from the players when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, meaning the possibility of a long, protracted lockout in 2011 hasn't dissipated one bit. A Players Association source told Yahoo! Sports Friday that the union would examine whether there was grounds for a collusion lawsuit, based on the league's pessimistic numbers last summer -- which the union will no doubt argue led to a freeze on team movement.

    There could be as many as eight teams -- including a couple we don't know about -- that are currently for sale or being sold, according to a very, very high team source that has knowledge of such things. You could argue that that is a good thing, as it means owners with deeper pockets may be coming into the game. But the mere fact that so many teams may be up for bid also means a lot of the league's current owners are looking to cash in and get out.

    In the meanime, though, the cap raise will be great news for the Knicks, Nets, Heat, Wizards, Clippers and Bulls, all expected to go hot and heavy into free agency July 1. (The Kings, Thunder and Wolves also will have enough room to go after the big fish, but OKC is saving all its coin to extend Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Minnesota is unlikely to be anyone's free agent destination at the moment and Sacramento , slowly rebuilding its fan base, would be an unlikely candidate to raise its payroll significantly in the near future.)

    "It was good news, because it adds to what we have if it bears out," Knicks president Donnie Walsh texted on Friday evening. "This gives us more flexibility."

    A breakdown of some of the key players:

    KNICKS

    The Knicks were operating with an assumptive cap number of $53.5 million. With only four players -- Eddy Curry, Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas and Wilson Chandler -- under contract for next season, the Knicks had, by my count, around $31 million in projected cap room if the cap came in at $53.5 million, enough to sign one max free agent at around $16 million, but not two. At $56.1, though, New York would have just enough to get two max players -- though it still would have to renounce its rights to free agent forward David Lee to sign two max players.

    Now, the Knicks can sign one max player and re-sign Lee at the $12-14 million it would probably take next season to keep him, and still have a couple million left over to sign a veteran player above the veteran's minimum. The Knicks would still have to sign several players at the minimum in order to fill out their roster, though. They could also use that room to trade for a player under contract. (Cap Avatar Larry Coon breaks it down further here.)

    NETS

    With Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Yi Jianlian and rookie Terrence Williams under contract for next season, and the Nets picking up the third-year option on guard Chris Douglas-Roberts, New Jersey has around $27.5 million in committed salaries for next season (and that already counts more than $4 million set aside for a high lottery pick, which will be no worse than fourth and could be first overall). That gives New Jersey $26 million in cap room, not enough for two max free agents, but enough for one max player and $10 million in additional room for other moves.

    But the Nets could add another $3.2 million in room if forward Kris Humphries doesn't exercise his player option for next season, and reach $30 million or so total in room. They still wouldn't be able to sign a second max, but they would be players for a lot of free agents just under the max level, and they could make a deal for just about anyone. And that room could increase further if New Jersey gets the first pick, and takes John Wall. That would make Harris expendable, and a lot of teams with room would probably be quite interested in a still-young (27) point guard with a reasonable (three years, $26.8 million remaining) contract.

    HEAT


    The Heat might be able to find a willing trade partner for Michael Beasley this summer.
    Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty ImagesMany agree that if -- if -- Miami cuts to the bone and frees up as much money as possible, that it could stand to gain the most from the additional cap room. If, for example, Miami was to renounce its rights to all of its free agents, including Udonis Haslem and Jermaine O'Neal, the Heat could be anywhere from $35 to $40 million under the cap next season, an Eastern Conference executive said Sunday. That's more than enough to re-sign Wade at a max level, add a second max player in free agency and have as much as $8 million available to entice a third free agent at a salary greater than the expected mid-level price. (This year's mid-level was $5.854 million.)

    But Pat Riley could also use that extra room to try and re-sign Haslem, considered the heart and soul of the team. Haslem made $7.1 million this season and it was going to be hard to keep him at the old projections. Now, Miami could keep him and Wade and add another superstar. Riley's often taken the mid-level exception and split it up to sign two players; no reason he couldn't do the same with $8 million.

    It is even conceivable -- though not likely -- that Miami could find a trading partner for second-year forward Michael Beasley, sending Beasley's salary into the room of a team under the cap for draft picks and no salary in return, and have enough room to re-sign Wade and add two max free agents. The Heat's longtime beat writer, Ira Winderman, explored this possibility here.

    Whatever it decides, Miami will be a force this summer.

    WIZARDS

    Washington has one big ticket -- Gilbert Arenas's $17.7 million next season -- and little else on its cap going forward. Only Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Al Thornton and Nick Young are on the books for next season (Javaris Crittenton, obviously, won't be back, the Wizards aren't going to pick up Josh Howard's option and guard Shaun Livingston, rejuvenated in his stay in D.C., has probably played himself onto a better team's roster next season), giving the Wizards only $25 million in committed money.

    Add a few cap holds here and there and the Wizards were expecting to have around $18 million total in cap room under the $50-$53 million cap projections. At $56.1 million Washington will have more than $20 million available -- a lot of room, but still enough for only one max player.

    It's much more likely, given Washington's uncertainty on the court and in ownership, that the Wizards will have to be trading partners. They have to make some tough decisions about Blatche, who was a 20 and 10 guy after getting more playing time, but still exhibited some of the tendencies that made him unworthy of more playing time and responsibility in his first four NBA seasons. Building around him is far from a foregone conclusion, and his more than reasonable salary (two years and $6.7 million left) could make him a very desirable piece elsewhere.

    Of all the teams with significant cap room, the Wizards are the one that most needs some good fortune in the lottery, to assure them of at least one major, low-salaried building block to start reconstructing their team.

    CLIPPERS

    L.A. only has five players -- Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Baron Davis and DeAndre Jordan -- under contract for next season, though the Clippers would like to bring back free agents Rasual Butler and Craig Smith. Including cap holds on those two, the Clippers would be over $40 million in committed salaries, with not quite enough room to make a max offer under the old projection (though renouncing them would have created enough space). With the new one, they can make an offer for a max player, and the Clippers have leaked out word (clumsily) of their desire for James to be that max player.

    If the Clips can't lure a premier free agent, they could re-sign Butler, Smith or guard Steve Blake and add a veteran player for higher-than-mid-level prices, and filling out the roster with quality depth wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, considering L.A. will add another young player via the draft with a high Lottery pick. At the least, the Clippers certainly could be aggressive trade partners with teams that might be looking to lower their own luxury tax bills next season, and there will be no shortage of those.


    Playing with Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose is sure to lure some free agents to Chicago.
    Chris Graythen/Getty ImagesBULLS

    Chicago mortgaged its immediate future, trading John Salmons at the deadline to Milwaukee for expiring contracts, in order to clear enough cap room to go after a max player. The Bulls succeeded, but now that they have the extra room, one wonders if they would have held onto Salmons (a bargain at $5.45 million, less than the mid-level) if the revised projection had come in two months earlier.

    Chicago has Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and rookies Taj Gibson and James Johnson under contract for next season. That's about $31 million in salary, give or take a few hundred thousand. Even with the increase in the cap projection the Bulls will only be able to make one max offer, albeit with a nice chunk of $8-9 million available for a second, less expensive free agent if they can land the superstar. One would expect there will be any number of people who'd like to play with Rose and Noah for the next 10 years, which means that Chicago, if not everyone's first choice in free agency, will certainly be somewhere on every blue-chipper's wish list. And that will make Chicago a player in any number of potential sign-and-trade scenarios.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Here are a couple of thoughts...

    The list of Free Agents this year is going to be absurd. There are four main destinations IMO for the bigger name players. CHI, MIA, NYK, NJN. I think WAS and SAC will just be facilitators at this point. MIN and LAC will make some moves to utilize their space, but will be more frugal.

    TOR, PHO, BOS, MEM, HOU, CLE, and ATL all have big time free agents, that if they leave, will put those teams under the salary cap. None of these teams would have significant room in the way of replacing their big free agent without their Bird Rights.

    I think CLE keeps LeBron. This will be important for the Pacers, because he will take a lot of money away from whichever teams lose their free agents. This will give us more trading partners for our expiring contracts and will force some of those teams to go in a different direction from a basketball perspective.

    I think Joe Johnson and David Lee end up in Chicago. Rose, Johnson, Deng, Lee, and Noah.

    I think MIA keeps Wade and picks up Bosh. Then they will retain Haslem. Then draft PG and C and pick up a bunch of cheap vets. Chalmers, Wade, Beasley, Bosh, Haslem.

    I think the NYK get Amare and Yao Ming. And then trade with the Nets for Devin Harris, assuming they get Wall. I could also see them going after Baron. Harris, Gallinari, Chandler, Stoudemire, Ming.

    Rudy Gay ends up with LAC. Davis, Gordon, Gay, Griffin, Kaman.

    Other key free agents:

    Boozer stays with Utah

    Pierce opts out in Boston, but signs an extension to finish out his career

    Dirk does the same in Dallas. Haywood also stays in Dallas.

    Camby I could see going to Miami, but POR, TOR, HOU, LAC, and ATL would all have significant interest in him.

    Scola will stay in HOU

    Ray Allen I can see staying in BOS, but he seems like a wild card to me. I don't know what kind of money he will command at his age and what his preferences will be, which I would assume another championship.

    Guys like AI, Shaq, Tmac, and Josh Howard will look to sign somewhere. None of them will get signed to what they think they are worth, if anything at all. I think we could see Shaq retire if CLE wins it all. AI is done. Howard might have to take a lot less money on a three year deal just so he can prove he can heal and that he deserves to still be in the league. I could see Minnesota possibly taking the risk on him if they have a roster spot. Tmac will want a lot, but not get much. He will probably get overpaid and stay injured. I have no idea who would sign him. The Nets are probably the best bet, but that would be dumb of them. They need a PF.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    The Heat seem to be the only Team that is capable of ending up with 2 Max-Contract Free Agents. They should be able to retain Wade and still be able to sign another Max Contract Player while having enough room to sign a $8 mil Player.

    I've brought this up before....but I think that there is only 2 "Batmans" ( notice the lack of apostrophe to the grammar police ) in Lebron and Wade with the rest as "Robins" that will probably receive a similiar Max Contract. Frankly, I hope ( and wouldn't be surprised ) that Lebron and Wade stay put and then we'll see a mad scramble for the rest of the Top Tier FAs. I can see the Knicks overspending on Joe Johnson and players like Amare and Bosh being S&T to other Teams where they will stil be overpaid.

    Just curious...what is the MAX contract ( per year ) that Lebron and Wade get from the Teams that they are on now compared to getting something else from another Team?

    I'm guessing that it's not like the Knicks could offer either of them more per season if not overall then what their own Teams can offer.
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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by pacergod2 View Post
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    Tmac will want a lot, but not get much. He will probably get overpaid and stay injured. I have no idea who would sign him. The Nets are probably the best bet, but that would be dumb of them. They need a PF.
    I think that the Clips could be a possible destination for TMac at some 1-2 year deal for $6 to 7 mil. Yeah, they would overpay for him and he would join the BDiddy on the bench when both are injured......but they need a starting quality SF and ( as you suggest ) probably would likely strike out in the Top Tier FA market and settle for a ticket seller like TMac. TMac maybe able to revive his career being on a Team full of solid quality Players like BDiddy, Gordon, Kaman and Griffin while adding in some quality backup Players like Butler and resigning some of the other Vets like Blake and Gooden.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: ESPN - NBA cap projection higher than thought

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    The draft pick will probably be 20% higher than that. The slot is the mid-point, and the draft picks can be signed for anywhere between 20% below and 20% above. The vast majority of picks sign for the max, which would be about $2,238.
    Help me with some clarity on this issue......let's say that we stay put and literally do nothing ....what will be the projected # of Players along with the guaranteed Salary owed to them if we do the following?

    1 ) Sign both the 1st and 2nd round 2010 Draft Picks
    2 ) Keep AJ and McRoberts

    Who'll be left if we do nothing?

    I'm beginning to think that there is a possiblility that we literally do nothing and we would only be a $1-3 mil ( which means that we can make some minor moves like buying out any of our Big4 Contracts ) over the likely LT threshold and still be able to field a Team of 13 Players. I don't know if this is a good or bad thing....as in "good" because this means that we may not be forced into a situation where we have to do a "Maynor+Harpring" type trade for a Trade Exception just to get under the LT ( my worst Case scenario trade that I want to avoid )....or "bad" because it may mean that we'll have another season to watch the same Team that we saw this season.
    Last edited by CableKC; 04-20-2010 at 12:59 PM.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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