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Thread: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

  1. #1
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    Default Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Despite our recent lack of postseason appearances, usually this thing's competitive all the way up until the end. This year, the Pacers are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I'm stealing Nappy Seth's idea and making a reverse magic number thread, instead. We'll be looking at what combination of Pacers losses or other team's wins are needed for the Pacers to secure a top pick.

    For now we won't be looking at tiebreakers and I'll be ignoring the lotto aspect entirely. We're just looking at unadjusted draft ranking.

    Here are the current lotto standings (wins/losses/games left)

    1. New Jersey (10/65/7)
    2. Minnesota (15/60/7)
    3. Golden State (22/53/7)
    4. Washington (22/53/7)
    5. Detroit (23/52/7)
    6. Sacramento (24/52/6)
    7. New York (26/49/7)
    8. Philadelphia (26/50/6)
    9. LA Clippers (27/48/7)
    10. Indiana (28/48/6)
    11. New Orleans (35/42/5)
    12. Chicago (36/39/7)
    13. Houston (38/37/7)
    14. Toronto (38/37/7)

    The Pacers have six games left... even if they win all of their remaining games, they won't have a good enough record to pass New Orleans, Chicago, Houston, or Toronto. So I'm taking those teams off the list right from the start. In addition, New Jersey and Minnesota have enough losses that even if they won the remainder of their games, they wouldn't be in danger of losing the pick to the Pacers. So they're gone as well.

    Golden State has seven games left. If they lose all of those games they'll have 60 losses. Indy currently has 48 losses, meaning they'd have to lose 13 games to acquire more losses than GS. Indy's magic number is thus 13. Either a Golden State win or an Indy loss decreases that number by one.

    Here, then, are the magic numbers:

    3. Golden State - 13
    4. Washington - 13
    5. Detroit - 12
    6. Sacramento - 11
    7. New York - 9
    8. Philadelphia - 9
    9. LA Clippers - 8
    10. Indiana

    I'll update this tonight and every night until the end of the season. I don't have it in me to wish for my Pacers to lose, so I'll be rooting hardcore for the Clippers, Sixers, Knicks, and Kings.
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    For Saturday 4/3:

    Sixers Lost
    Pistons Lost
    Clippers Lost
    Kings Lost

    For Sunday 4/4, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Rockets @ Pacers
    Nets @ Wizards
    Warriors @ Raptors
    Knicks @ Clippers

    No games on Monday 4/5

    For Tuesday 4/6, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Pistons @ Sixers
    Warriors @ Wizards
    Celtics @ Knicks
    Spurs @ Kings

    For Wednesday 4/7, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Pacers
    Wizards @ Magic
    Hawks @ Pistons
    Sixers @ Heat
    Warriors @ TWolves
    Blazers @ Clippers

    For Thursday 4/8, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Clippers @ Kings

    For Friday 4/9, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Magic
    Bucks @ Sixers
    Wizards @ Celtics
    Pacers @ Cavs
    Pistons @ Heat

    For Saturday 4/10, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Nets @ Pacers
    Hawks @ Wizards
    Pistons @ Bobcats
    Sixers @ Grizzlies
    Mavs @ Kings
    Warriors @ Clippers

    For Sunday 4/11, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Thunder @ Warriors
    Heat @ Knicks

    For Monday 4/12, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Magic @ Pacers
    Heat @ Sixers
    Raptors @ Pistons
    Wizards @ Knicks
    Rockets @ Kings
    Mavs @ Clippers

    For Tuesday 4/13, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Jazz @ Warriors
    Kings @ Lakers

    For Wednesday 4/14, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Pistons @ TWolves
    Sixers @ Magic
    Pacers @ Wizards
    Knicks @ Raptors
    Lakers @ Clippers
    Warriors @ Blazers

    It won't make much of a difference....but something to consider is that the Warriors aren't purposely tanking as they are trying to get ( at least ) 2 more wins for Nellie so that he can break the record for "Most Wins by a Coach" record this season. When it's all said and done...I think the Wizards are going to end up with a worst record then the Warriors.
    Last edited by CableKC; 04-04-2010 at 02:13 AM.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    I was gonna say, I think you might be a bit too late for your magic number thread. Then I read it and said "yeah, that's more germane to the situation."



    Also I usually present it from the other team's POV on this one, so as of now the team's the Pacers can "catch" that are "ahead" of them in the lottery standings.

    Pacers can lose 54 games max.

    Pacers can't catch:
    1. New Jersey
    2. Minny

    Games (Pacer wins, other team's losses) left to eliminate Pacers (no ties)
    3. Golden St - 2
    4. Washington - 2
    5. Sacto - 3
    6. Detroit - 3
    7. New York - 6
    8. Philly - 6
    9. Clips - 7

    The Pacers can't win enough games to catch any other teams and move "down" this list, so they've locked up 10th and have a realistic shot at moving to 7th.

    However considering their slew of home games it seems very possible that the Pacers finish 4-2, which would eliminate the top 6 teams even if those teams won out.

    Of course it's just our luck that the Clips and Knicks play tomorrow, so one of those 2 will reduce their magic number when they lose.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 04-04-2010 at 03:19 AM.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Welcome to No-Man's land....where the Pacers have taken up residence over the last couple of seasons. Many of the Teams that matter will be playing each other over the next week....so it's only going to get better.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

  8. #5

    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    I said about a week and a half ago that the Pacers would finish at
    #10. In fact, I think I used the word 'lock'.

    Nothing has changed.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    For a while there, I really did think we had a shot at somewhere around 4-6. Turns out my initial pessimism (which I believe had me thinking 6-9) was more on the mark.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hillman's 'Fro' View Post
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    I said about a week and a half ago that the Pacers would finish at #10. In fact, I think I used the word 'lock'.

    Nothing has changed.

    It is nice that you made a guess that turned out to actually happen. But I hope you agree that saying something will happen, and then it actually happening, is not "nothing."

    If I say, "I will give you $1,000," I think you would notice a difference between me saying it and then me actually giving you the money.



    People have been "calling it" since the beginning of the season. And most of our predictions have been very far off the mark. Some few can point back to one or a few predictions they made that were on target, thanks to luck and sheer numbers.

    The point of this thread is that we can finally pass beyond the fog of prediction and step into the bright clear daylight of actual results. Keep it up, Anthem.
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
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  11. #8

    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Don't know where else to ask this question:


    Did we lose the pre-season prediction thread?



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    It all dries up and blows away
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Figures we would if you can't find it. Stupid computers.

    Top of my head I think I had them in the 39-41 win range, maybe sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the improved defense. I was more optimistic this year than I was the last 2.

    And honestly, had Danny been healthier or looked healthier during mid-season they might have snuck in a few more wins to get near the bottom of that range, though it wouldn't be enough to make the post-season it appears.

    The 32-33 wins they look to be headed to is much closer to the predictions I made the prior 2 seasons.





    By the way, just since it's one of my personal vendetta rant topics...

    Carlisle
    44 wins
    41 wins
    35 wins
    FIRED

    O'Brien
    36 wins
    36 wins
    34 wins MAX

    Why is this even debatable. If you fired a COY winner (4 straight years in the top 5 COY voting btw) and the team's franchise record holder for most wins in a season as a coach because he failed and only won 35 games on a team built around an injured JO, Tinsley, Dun and Troy, why in the hell would you give JOB the benefit of the doubt for doing worse with Dun, Troy, Granger, Hibbert, Rush, etc.

    Is Hibbert really worse than broken JO? Are Watson/Ford really worse than disruptive, uncontrolled Tinsley (just 1/2 a season away from banishment at that point)? Are mid-season traded, try to figure out how to use them Dun and Troy worse now than they were then (check Dun's numbers before you answer)?

    When JOB asks Larry "why are you firing me?" the answer should be "why WOULDN'T I fire you?"

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Loved the win, but it means Indy didn't move up.

    GS won, Washington won, New York won, Clips lost, Detroit/Sacramento/Philly didn't play.

    3. Golden State - 12
    4. Washington - 12
    5. Detroit - 12
    6. Sacramento - 11
    7. Philadelphia - 9
    8. New York - 8
    9. LA Clippers - 8
    10. Indiana
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Yeah, we're picking 10th.

    I don't know whether to or

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    I think the best we could have gotten was 7th, maybe 6th, but looking at how badly the other teams have done and the Pacers easy schedule.

    OK, we didn't expect the Pacers to win against the Jazz, Thunder and Bobcats (although each game was at home, but even if the pacers lose each of those games, that would give us 26 wins which puts us tied for 7th with the Sixers. with games at home against the Knicks, Nets, at Wizards (that is three wins there) Nets have no incentive now that they got their 10th win.

    It isn't like the pacers have been beating good teams on the road during this stretch - they have only won 2 road games since the AS break - @Houston, and @ Detroit

    I think I posted this a few days ago, now that I think about it.

    but realistically 7-10 was the most likely anyway.
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 04-05-2010 at 10:12 AM.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    We could still realistically hit 7th.
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Pacers can lose 53 games max.

    Pacers can't catch:
    1. New Jersey
    2. Minny

    Games (Pacer wins, other team's losses) left to eliminate Pacers (no ties)
    3. Golden St - 1
    4. Washington - 1
    5. Sacto - 1
    6. Detroit - 1
    7. Philly - 4
    8. Clips - 4
    9. New York - 5

    1 more win by the Pacers locks them to no worse than 7th.

  20. #15

    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    This thread makes my head spin.

    It is hard to know, when someone says "better" or "worse" if they mean in the standings, or in the lottery.
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Would haiku clear things up, Putty?

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    We could still realistically hit 7th.
    Techincally, that's the best that we could hope for....but the best that I think we could hope for is the 9th spot. This ( of course ) assumes that the Knicks are doing their best to get the best record that they can get so that they don't give the Jazz more ping pong balls. I seriously doubt ( with all the Home games that we'll be playing ) that we lose the vast majority of the games we play and everyone else starts to win games.

    There's a 5 game gap between the Pacers at the 10th spot ( with 48 current losses ) and the Wizards who have gone into full Tank mode at the 6th spot ( with 53 losses ).

    If you are in Tank mode and hoping for more Ping Pong balls, the Teams to watch now are:

    Sixers - 50 loses with a .342 Winning Percentage
    Clippers - 50 loses with a .351 Winning Percentage
    Knicks - 49 loses with a .355 Winning Percentage
    Pacers - 48 loses with a .377 Winning Percentage

    For Tuesday 4/6, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Pistons @ Sixers - ????
    Celtics @ Knicks - Knicks Lose

    For Wednesday 4/7, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Pacers - Pacers win
    Sixers @ Heat - Sixers Lose
    Blazers @ Clippers - Clippers Lose

    For Thursday 4/8, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Clippers @ Kings - ????

    For Friday 4/9, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Magic - Knicks Lose
    Bucks @ Sixers - Sixers Lose
    Pacers @ Cavs - Pacers lose

    For Saturday 4/10, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Nets @ Pacers - ???? ( I think the Nets will pull this one off somehow )
    Sixers @ Grizzlies - ????
    Warriors @ Clippers - ????

    For Sunday 4/11, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Heat @ Knicks - ????

    For Monday 4/12, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Magic @ Pacers - Pacers Lose
    Heat @ Sixers - Sixers lose
    Wizards @ Knicks - Knicks win
    Mavs @ Clippers - Clips lose

    For Wednesday 4/14, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Sixers @ Magic - Sixers lose
    Pacers @ Wizards - Pacers win
    Knicks @ Raptors - Knicks lose
    Lakers @ Clippers - Clips lose

    My total guess is:

    Sixers : 4 to 6 more loses - finishing with 54 to 56 loses
    Clippers : 3 to 5 more loses - finishing with 53 to 55 loses
    Knicks - 3 to 5 more loses - finishing with 52 to 55 loses
    Pacers - 3 to 5 more loses - finishing with 51 to 53 loses
    Last edited by CableKC; 04-05-2010 at 04:13 PM.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

  25. #19
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Washington won, Detroit won, New York won. Golden State lost, Philly lost, Sacramento's almost certainly going to lose. Nobody else played.

    3. Golden State - 12
    4. Washington - 11
    5. Detroit - 11
    6. Sacramento - 11
    7. Philadelphia - 9
    8. LA Clippers - 8
    9. New York - 7
    10. Indiana

    The New York win is a biggie. 7 NY wins or Indy losses gets us the #9 seed. Since I don't root for the Pacers to lose, I'm pretty excited about that NY win.
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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Putty - my version is a climb to the bottom, max losses is "good". Teams the Pacers can't catch will be higher than the Pacers in the lottery. Magic number is how many losses those teams need to draft ahead of the Pacers. Pacers wins also reduce those numbers.

    Anthem's is from the Pacers view, mine is from the opponent's view.

    Pacers max losses are 53.

    Pacers can't catch:
    1. New Jersey
    2. Minny
    3. Golden St.
    4. Sacto

    Games left to eliminate Pacers (no ties)
    5. Washington - 1
    6. Detroit - 1
    7. Philly - 3
    8. Clips - 4
    9. New York - 5

    1 more win by the Pacers locks them to no "better" than 7th. The Pacers can no longer get into the top 4 lotto spots.

    If the Pacers beat the Knicks it reduces the Knicks magic number to 3. But the good news is that NY won tonight. Unfortunately Detroit beat Philly. It seems unlikely that the Pacers can get worse than Detroit, but they still had a shot at Philly, so we wanted Philly to win.



    By the way, there are no teams better than the Pacers right now that can finish worse than them. Indy is literally at the "bottom" of the teams they can catch or fall behind in the draft ranking. Figures.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 04-07-2010 at 12:36 AM.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread


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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I think the best we could have gotten was 7th, maybe 6th, but looking at how badly the other teams have done and the Pacers easy schedule.

    OK, we didn't expect the Pacers to win against the Jazz, Thunder and Bobcats (although each game was at home, but even if the pacers lose each of those games, that would give us 26 wins which puts us tied for 7th with the Sixers. with games at home against the Knicks, Nets, at Wizards (that is three wins there) Nets have no incentive now that they got their 10th win.

    It isn't like the pacers have been beating good teams on the road during this stretch - they have only won 2 road games since the AS break - @Houston, and @ Detroit

    I think I posted this a few days ago, now that I think about it.

    but realistically 7-10 was the most likely anyway.
    I agree!

    When we were in the 4th lottery position I looked at the last 14 games and thought we had a good change of winning half of them.

    I figured Washington and Detroit would catch us for sure, and probably the Warriors, which would have put us 7th. Then I figured the lottery would move us back even further.

    The thing is, only the top 4, of Wall, Turner, Favors, and Cousins, stand out from the rest of the lottery players, and it's unlikely Bird would take Cousins? So 5th though 14 doesn't really matter.

    Actually we could move back even further and have about the same caliber of player.

    What I'm hoping for is a couple trades like the two that resulted in Hibbert and Rush.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    We could still realistically hit 7th.
    Possible yes, realistic, no!

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Good to know 10 is as far as they can fall or climb however you want to look at it.

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    Default Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    Possible yes, realistic, no!
    Very true.

    8 or 9 is still realistically possible, though. I wouldn't bet a million dollars on it, but it wouldn't be shocking.
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