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Thread: What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.

  1. #1
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    Default What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.

    I must have WAY to much time on my hands but here are some interesting results from doing the ESPN Draft Lottery.

    I did this a total of 400 times which really only took about 40 minutes.
    I did 100 times with the Pacers, 100 times with the Wizards, 100 times with the Pistons, and 100 times again with the Pacers.

    As it stands with the current standings the Wizards are the 4th worse, we are 5th worse, and Pistons are 6th worse.

    My results with the Wizards were. They got the following picks this many times:
    1ST - 9 Times
    2ND - 10 Times
    3RD - 14 Times
    4TH - 15 Times
    5TH - 30 Times
    6TH - 22 Times
    Their average draft position was 4.13 and they ended up in the lottery 33% of the time.

    My Results with the Pacers were:
    1ST 100
    1ST - 3 Times
    2ND - 13 Times
    3RD - 9 Times
    5TH - 34 Times
    6TH - 34 Times
    7TH - 7 Time
    Their average draft position was 4.79 and they ended up in the lottery 25% of the time.

    2ND 100
    1ST - 7 Times
    2ND - 6 Times
    3RD - 9 Times
    5TH - 28 Times
    6TH - 33 Times
    7TH - 16 Times
    8TH - 1 Time
    Their average draft position was 5.04 and they ended up in the lottery 22% of the time.

    Finally I did the Pistons but note that the Pistons and Kings both have similar % to win the lottery so the 6th and 7th spots should have similar numbers.
    1ST - 6 Times
    2ND - 5 Times
    3RD - 3 Times
    6TH - 51 Times
    7Th - 32 Times
    8TH - 3 Times
    Their average draft position was 5.79 and they ended up in the lottery 14% of the time.

    So what I can take from this experiment is that I would like for us to get no higher than the 5th pick. We have almost twice the chance to win the lottery being the 5th worse team than the 6th. The 4th would be nice but it wouldn't change our chances as much as it would being the 6th worse team. In the end it is all a matter of luck but I wanted to do a 100 times test to see what the results would be. We should know more of what type of player we could get around our draft pick once the tournament starts and certain players stand out more than others. Hopefully, no matter where we pick we can get a great player but at least if you pick in the top 3 you get your choice instead of whats left.

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  3. #2
    FREE LANCE MillerTime's Avatar
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    Default Re: What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.

    Woww you do have a lot of time on your hands
    "So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.



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    Default Re: What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by pacerfreak31
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    We have almost twice the chance to win the lottery being the 5th worse team than the 6th. The 4th would be nice but it wouldn't change our chances as much as it would being the 6th worse team. In the end it is all a matter of luck
    Your enthusiasm is great, but not one bit of this is correct.


    The 5th worse team has 28% greater chance to win first place than the 6th worse team, not twice the chance.

    The chance of winning drops by .031 from 4th to 5th, but only by .025 from 5th to 6th.

    In the end, it is a combination of luck and probability.



    I'm sorry for being snarky and treating you like some waiftard instead of a respected poster. I just want it to be understood that the probabilities are fixed and none of our speculating will change them, control them or determine the outcome.



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    Last edited by Putnam; 03-17-2010 at 04:45 PM.
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    Default Re: What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I'm sorry for being snarky and treating you like some waiftard instead of a respected poster. I just want it to be understood that the probabilities are fixed and none of our speculating will change them, control them or determine the outcome.
    .
    Thanks I guess. I know that there are exact odds and everything but I was just basing everything on what happened when I did MY mock lottery draft. Kind of like testing the system and it is pretty close to what should happen... I guess just something to talk about.

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    Default Re: What it means to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th worse.


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