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Thread: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

  1. #51
    Administrator Peck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    See I disagree with some of this. Dale was as strong as an ox but I think the thing that set Dale apart from other muscle player (Kevin Willis come to mind) was the fact that for a big man he was cat like quick when he was younger.

    In fact I think in terms of lateral movement he may have been as fast as any big man that I have ever seen, including Garnett.

    You may be remembering Dale in the 04 season when he was in his mid 30's and much slower.

    When you watch Winning time next weekend, pay attention to the one shot that they say put an end to Ewings career as an elite player. They talk about Pat getting confused and thinking that he was going to draw contact from the defender and get fouled. He didn't, he missed the shot due to the shot being contested enough and he didn't get the rebound because the defender not only sidetepped him for the layup but was fast enough to beat everyone else to the ball to secure the rebound and thus the game.

    That defender was Dale btw. That playe was a combination of skill (not fouling) and speed (getting from one spot to another before anyone else could).


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    I'll grant you that Dale had speed, but not KG/ pre-2002 JO or Jeff Foster-like speed. I mean, he occasionally used his speed so that he had some variety to his game. Just like, on occasions, KG, JO (pre 2002) and Foster sometimes played strong.
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  3. #53

    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    There's a lot of good discussion here, including an encyclopedic answer from Brad.


    Much of the discussion explains why the Pacers foul a lot, but that wasn't my question. I was asking why the ratio of Opponents' FTA per Pacers' PF was higher than for other teams. (I only included Eastern Conference teams in the chart.)

    The Pacers don't just foul -- they give more shooting fouls at a progressive rate. That is what I wanted an explanation of.

    As I was driving around this afternoon, it occurred to me, just as I was turning left and "Keep Your Hands to Yourself" by The Georgia Satellites came on the cd player, that the answer to my question is probably just a function of fouling more than 5 times each quarter.

    You can foul up to 4 times a quarter without giving up any free throws, but beyond that every foul is a shooting foul. So fouling at a rate of 23 PF per game means giving up more shots on the 16th and subsequent fouls.

    Pretty obvious, I guess. But I try never to trust the obvious answer.



    Coupla notes.

    The best no-fouls performance this season so far came in the Cavaliers' 21pt victory over your Indiana Pacers on Jan 19th, when they committed only 12 total fouls and gave the Pacers a mere five FTA, which, to their credit they sank all five of!

    According to Basketball Reference, there hasn't been a single instance since 1990 of a team getting zero FTA in a game. Twice a team got only 2 FTA

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...=&order_by=pts

    There've been 33 game when a team committed fewer than 10 total fouls in a game. That team won only 18 games -- barely over .500. so not fouling doesn't confer or signify any advantage.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...=&order_by=pts





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    Last edited by Putnam; 03-04-2010 at 04:02 PM.
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  5. #54
    100 Miles from the B count55's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    There's a lot of good discussion here, including an encyclopedic answer from Brad.


    Much of the discussion explains why the Pacers foul a lot, but that wasn't my question. I was asking why the ratio of Opponents' FTA per Pacers' PF was higher than for other teams. (I only included Eastern Conference teams in the chart.)

    The Pacers don't just foul -- they give more shooting fouls at a progressive rate. That is what I wanted an explanation of.

    As I was driving around this afternoon, it occurred to me, just as I was turning left and "Keep Your Hands to Yourself" by The Georgia Satellites came on the cd player, that the answer to my question is probably just a function of fouling more than 5 times each quarter.

    You can foul up to 4 times a quarter without giving up any free throws, but beyond that every foul is a shooting foul. So fouling at a rate of 23 PF per game means giving up more shots on the 16th and subsequent fouls.

    Pretty obvious, I guess. But I try never to trust the obvious answer.

    .
    A few things based on rough numbers (All from play-by-plays, excluding the Portland Game).

    1. Of the 1,402 fouls the Pacers had committed through the Lakers game, 754 had been Shooting fouls. That's the highest number of fouls and the highest number of shooting fouls in the league. As a percent of total fouls, this 53.8% is 6th highest in the league, behind the Jazz, Nets, Clippers, Bucks, and Heat. The league average is about 50.4%, so that's roughly an extra 84-ish FTA's (with a slight adjustment for and-ones) compared to the league norm. (The 53.8% is slightly more than one std dev above the mean.)

    2. In the NBA, you put the other team in the bonus in one of two ways: (1) commit 5 team fouls (excluding Offensive Fouls) in a quarter or (2) commit two fouls in the final two minutes of the quarter. I'd have to do more charting to get the data on the second way, but we can use quarters where the committed more than 5 fouls as a directional amount.

    Leaguewide, teams commit 5 or more fouls in a quarter about 52% of the time. The Pacers, however, are dead last in this category, committing 5 or more fouls in fully two-thirds of their quarters or roughly 67%. Only two other teams (SAC -62% & GSW-65%) have cleared 60%. The Pacers well over two std devs from the mean.

    If we were to pretend for a minute that all of the fouls after the fourth result in 2 FTA's (not perfect, but reasonable), then use the Pacers' actual foul count by quarter, their "bonus" fouls would have resulted in 460 Opponent FT's. The league average for a team is only 321.

    Basically, they're among the league leaders in shooting fouls, and they put the opponent in the bonus way more often than the norm.

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  7. #55

    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    ^^^^ Thank you. Great explanation.
    And I won't be here to see the day
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  9. #56
    100 Miles from the B count55's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    ^^^^ Thank you. Great explanation.
    FT's have an interesting impact on offensive or defensive performance, if you use Offensive Rating or Defensive Rating as a measuring stick (points scored/allowed per 100 possessions).

    The Four Factors of Winning are really pretty cool. They are eFG%, TOV%, Reb% (Off for Offense, Def for Defense) and FT/FGA's.

    If you look at these in aggregate, by using an accumulated rank, you see they really correlate well to winning percentage. (It's not a perfect predictor, but a good indicator.)




    In any case, the eFG%'s are far and away the most important. Looking at all the teams since 1980, a team's rank in eFG% has a correlation of over 0.85 to the team's rank in either Offensive or Defensive Ratings.

    FT's are the second most important on the Offensive side, with a 0.60 correlation in rankings. However, it is the least important on the defensive side, showing only a 0.21 correlation to DefRtg ranks.

    However, I consider them extremely important in the case of this year's Pacers. Their totals are so out of whack with the norm, that they explain why the Pacers have had a top 10 eFG% for the majority of the year, yet have consistently hovered around average in DefRtg, and, consequently, in the middle of the pack. (EDIT: This paragraph is probably, strictly speaking, the wrong way to say it. The correlation is still poor: 30th in FT/FGA vs. 14th in DefRtg. However, it is still the boat anchor on the defense. It drags it down.)

    Additionally, the Top 10 eFG% is a little bit of a mislead. It's probably aided by the fact that they're taking so many shooting fouls. You've used Hoopdata before, so you'll recognize this, but I think the Pacers Opp XeFG% is lower because they're fouling other teams at the rim.
    Last edited by count55; 03-04-2010 at 07:38 PM.

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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    There's a lot of good discussion here, including an encyclopedic answer from Brad.
    .
    OK, the Cliffs notes say

    1. Pacers commit too many fouls due to various defensive deficiencies.

    2. More fouls inevitably mean more free throws than the opponents due to getting into the bonus more quickly then they do on a regular basis.

    3. A combination of poor perimeter defense due to players being injured, played out of their natural positions, and overall poor defensive strategy given the available assets leaves us vulnerable to dribble penetration at a higher rate than other teams.

    4. More likelihood of being attacked on the interior leads to more potential contact with our weak interior defense that is caused by a variety of factors, some of which are not related to the quality of the players we have on the actual interior, but rather requires those players to do more than their experience level and athleticism permits them to do on a nightly basis.

    5. More contact with our defenders leads to a higher percentage of FTA's per FGA.

    6. These things coupled with our blatant tendency not to drive with the intent to score ourselves likely leads to a strategy shift on the part of opposing coaches who decide to exploit this and beat us at the line by driving with intent to score which don't do as frequently as we should, which accelerates the above even moreso than would be expected ordinarily.

    7. In a more succinct fashion this time, I basically said that I would take what O'Brien does both offensively and defensively and basically do the opposite, within reason, and that this, too, is his fault.

    Better?

    I could probably truncate it further by going into the abbreviations used for texting, but hopefully that won't be necessary .

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    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888
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    Better?

    I could probably truncate it further by going into the abbreviations used for texting, but hopefully that won't be necessary .
    Oh, it was fine the first time. "Encyclopedic" is a good thing!
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  13. #59

    Default Re: Why do the Pacers give up so many FTAs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Count55
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    Looking at all the teams since 1980, a team's rank in eFG% has a correlation of over 0.85 to the team's rank in either Offensive or Defensive Ratings.
    Wow. It does my heart good to see such a strong correlation. Sometimes causality exists!

    Thanks again for the additional detailed commentary.


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