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Thread: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

  1. #26
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Not only all this, but on top of your chances of getting any specific pick you also have the chances of any one of those draft slots actually producing a quality player. This is not truly random as it involves human choices, but time has shown that GMs are not perfect and predicting the proper order that players should be drafted, going from most talented career to least (injuries included), has proven well beyond anyone's capability.

    In other words, not only are your odds short on getting the #1, they are even worse that you will both get the #1 pick AND that player will be the best player in the long term. Kobe, Jordan, Durant...

    You don't only not need to be the worst team to do the best in the draft, you don't even need to win the best pick in the lottery in many years.


    Barring a great turnaround the Pacers are going to have a shot at getting a pretty big impact player. But they'll still carry strong odds of failing to get one too.

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  3. #27

    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Quote Originally Posted by MillerTime View Post
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    What does 12.5% of John Wall mean?
    It means that getting into the lottery, and even with the worst record, provides a team with a very unfavorable chance at winning the top pick.


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  4. #28
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    So if getting into the lottery as one of the worst teams looking for a top pick isn't a decent consolation prize for an awful season.... Is being the 9th seed in an 8 seed playoff picture a better place to be? ...Or even being the 8th seed in a weak EC?

    I think you have to roll a lost season into a high draft pick or else you just waste that season for all intents and purposes. In the short term it might suck but it's starting to look like we're delaying the inevitable and creating long term ramifications that are more far-reaching than just biting the bullet on a season that's going nowhere anyway.
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  6. #29
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    ...And isn't this the old conundrum that when playing the state lotto your odds are awful but if you don't play at all then they are even worse?
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

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  7. #30
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    A Priori called and it's pi**ed.





    Each lottery is a new lottery with no history of the past. Stern, on the other hand, may or may not be so mutually exclusive in determining the probability of winning the lottery.
    True, but the same system of determination is implemented each time.

    And the reason you don't want to tank is the 25% chance of winning the lottery. Not worth the risk to be that bad. 75% chance you come up short.
    If you're not good enough to make the playoffs, why should it matter if you have the worst or 14th worst record? May as well increase your chances at landing a superstar.

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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    for those who want a high draft pick this year(including me), don't worry Murphy is starting today.

  9. #32
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    I don't praise tanking, but the way the league works is the way it works.

    In this league, you're rewarded for being either really bad or really good. There are many examples, and the Celtics almost singlehandedly proved that over the past 3 years. There is simply no reward for being a 30 something win team.

    I agree with anti-tankers that it's morally a lot more correct to play hard and win as many games as you can, but morals aren't what get you anywhere important in the NBA.

    The mechanisms of winning and building a winning team in the NBA are nothing like those of the MLB or the NFL. I don't like the way it works in the NBA, but it is what it is.

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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Upon review, my numbers are not accurate. I had falsely assumed the odds remain the same each year (at least starting with 1994), I inadvertently produced the wrong odds in my thread.

    I had assumed that team records and tie breakers first determined the order of the draft, and then once the order was established, I assumed that the number of lottery balls was always the same for each slot. I was wrong. They are NOT the same. Turns out, if teams tie in record, FIRST they SPLIT the AVERAGE of the number of balls between both of their slots, and THEN there's a tie breaker to determine who gets the extra ball (if applicable). Looking again at draft express, the ball count for teams changes every year. Even the #1 slot may not receive the usual 250 balls. If that team ties with another team, they SPLIT the number of balls the 1st and 2nd slot usually receive.

    So if you are the #1 slot in the lottery, you MAY NOT NECESSARILY HAVE 250 balls

  11. #34
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    So if you are the #1 slot in the lottery, you MAY NOT NECESSARILY HAVE 250 balls
    If you have 125 fully intact males...

  12. #35
    Member naptownmenace's Avatar
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Upon review, my numbers are not accurate. I had falsely assumed the odds remain the same each year (at least starting with 1994), I inadvertently produced the wrong odds in my thread.
    So are the rest of the numbers correct? Meaning that the team with the worst record has only won the lottery 3 times in the last 16 years?
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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  13. #36
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    Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery History from 1994-2009 versus the odds

    The numbers regarding who won are still fine. But the %'s for winning a specific spot are partially wrong because of the changing amount of lottery balls each time can get year to year based on tied records.

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