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Thread: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

  1. #51
    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    What I saw in the NBA prior to the 3-point era was that even when packing the paint offenses relied on physical play to get the ball into the middle, forcing defenses to respond, creating a game that was often physical to the point of being confused with football.

    At this point, it probably diverges into opinion and how you were raised with basketball, but I really prefer my basketball to be more than just a fight between behemoths under the basket where referees swallow the whistle in order to keep from just having a game of H-O-R-S-E from the free throw line.

    I really prefer games where the middle is opened up enough to allow the athletic weaving of a smaller and faster offensive player, where it takes some skill to get into position to prevent that kind of basket because you will get well and truly burned by leaving folks who can shoot alone at the 3-pt arc.
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  3. #52
    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    What I saw in the NBA prior to the 3-point era was that even when packing the paint offenses relied on physical play to get the ball into the middle, forcing defenses to respond, creating a game that was often physical to the point of being confused with football.
    Well, is it this, or is it lots of jump shots?
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    100 Miles from the B count55's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Well, is it this, or is it lots of jump shots?
    Both. Kind of a "worst of both worlds" thing.

    The possessions become a rugby scrum, culminating in a crappy jump shot.

    The fun part that there were actually fewer free throws taken back then, under 300 per 1000 FG attempts during the '70's.

    My basketball upbringing is probably similar to BillS', ABA into the '80's NBA. I like space, movement, passing and I like some tempo to the game as well.

  5. #54

    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Most of you already know this. But I thought I add this bit of information to the discussion:


    Below is points-per-attempt for 2pointers and 3-pointers for all Pacers teams since 1981.





    The thread has turned to aesthetics of the inside versus the outside game and whether jumps shots are things of beauty or cop outs. That is OK. But the chart shows that a coach who just wants his team to score has a solid basis for urging his players to take three-pointer attempts. As long as the players can shoot threes at a rate not less that 66% of their two-point scoring percentage, more threes are always better. And that has been the case for every team since 1994.
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Though I doubt the statistic is around, nor would anyone actually put forth the ridiculous amount of research for it....I would absolutely love to see the % of offensive rebounds/total from a 3 point shot versus a two point shot.

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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    Most of you already know this. But I thought I add this bit of information to the discussion:


    Below is points-per-attempt for 2pointers and 3-pointers for all Pacers teams since 1981.





    The thread has turned to aesthetics of the inside versus the outside game and whether jumps shots are things of beauty or cop outs. That is OK. But the chart shows that a coach who just wants his team to score has a solid basis for urging his players to take three-pointer attempts. As long as the players can shoot threes at a rate not less that 66% of their two-point scoring percentage, more threes are always better. And that has been the case for every team since 1994.
    Where do FTMs go in this chart? I realize that not every FTA is attributed to a shooting foul, but the contribution of FTAs from shooting a three point shot is close to de minimus and it is a material part of a two point shot. That's a lot of points that disappear with a doughnut offense and I believe the points-per-attempt on the 2FGA is understated.

    Keep in mind that a shooting foul that results in a missed shot is not tracked as an FGA so somebody would have to go back through lots and lots of game film or play-by-play logs to quantify this and avoid the garbage-in-garbage-out problem. A shooting foul only counts as a FGA if the shot is made and it becomes an "and-1" situation.
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  10. #57

    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Good points, Jay.

    Is there any way to measure the question?

    I suppose you are asking if free throw attempts vary inversely to 3ptA. With a large sample of game data, you could see if the number of free throw attempts varies inversely to three-point attempts. To control for pace you'd have to use three-point attempts as a percentage of all field goal attempts. Would that measure the right thing?


    I don't understand this part:

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoJ
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    I believe the points-per-attempt on the 2FGA is understated.
    How come? How and why is it understated?
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    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    I guess a big question would be: When the 3PA rose, were they at the expense of attacks to the basket, close shots, medium shots, or long 2's?

    Maybe long 2's are what got the axe?

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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Where are the And-1 FTs put?

    How do know the amount of times there is a four-point play (which we all know is rare) and the amoutn of times there is a "conventional" three-point play (which we all know happens a few times per quarter).

    And getting points from a shooting foul is completely ignored if you base the analysis off FGAs. That's a postive possession (0, 1, or 2 points depending if Dale Davis or Reggie Miller gets fouled... ) that falls out of the FGA stats.
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    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
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    And life itself, rushing over me
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    Default Re: Pacers Long-term Trend of 3pt Shooting

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I guess a big question would be: When the 3PA rose, were they at the expense of attacks to the basket, close shots, medium shots, or long 2's?

    Maybe long 2's are what got the axe?
    Well... the worst shot you can take is a two-point jump shot. Although accuracy percentages really start to decrease from about 20' (usually still a very high percentage shot for a pro or any kid in Indiana) out to the three-point line (36%).

    I saw somewhere that teams shoot closer to 40% from the deep corner. That is a closer shot. So that probably puts the rest of the arc in the low thirties to get to a 36% average.

    Clearly the mid-range shot is the one that has totally disappeared. If someone is open to take a midrange shot, they're probably looking to pass the ball out to someone who can miss a three.

    But post play is not what it used to be.

    We're ranting and raving about a guy like Hibbert -- not because he's Wilt-like/ Shaq-like/ Kareem-like/ McHale-like in the paint. But because there are only a dozen or so good post players in the league anymore so just having one "should be" a tremendous advantage.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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