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Thread: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

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    Default Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    I sat down at a Borders store yesterday and spent some time reading "The Art of a Beautiful Game".

    One chapter is on rebounding, and there's a quote in there by Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey that caught my attention.

    The reason I take notice when he speaks on statistics is that he has a reputation for finding and using statistics that many people still don't or won't.

    He seems to find stats that help him accumulate talented players that may otherwise not appear to be that good (think Shane Battier or Chuck Hayes).

    By the way, notice how his roster without its stars is still doing pretty well out West.

    Anyway, here's the quote:

    Quote Originally Posted by Daryl Morey
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    What you're looking for is a rebounder who increases the percentage of rebounds that his team is getting rather than the raw number.
    Intrigued, I wondered if there was any place to find such a stat.

    Thankfully, 82games.com provides.

    Here is how our bigs (Foster, Tyler, Roy, Murphy, Solo) shake out.

    Keep in mind what we're looking at here is the percentage of possible rebounds (offensive, defensive, and in total) the Pacers, as a team, got.

    So if there were a possible 30 defensive rebounds to be had, and the Pacers got 20 of them, then their defensive rebounding percentage would be about 67%.

    What this stat does is show what those %'s are with Player X on the floor, and then those %'s when Player X is NOT on the floor.

    It's also important to keep in mind this isn't a perfect stat because it falls into the dreaded +/- zone where other players can impact another player's numbers. But I like it better than pure +/- because there are so many more factors that could mess with that number. At least with rebounds things are slightly less wide-open as to why they are what they are.

    These #'s are as of 12/16/09:

    Jeff Foster:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND13.HTM

    Off Reb: 31.2% on the floor, 24.8% off the floor, net gain 6.4%
    Def Reb: 74.5% on the floor, 68.6% off the floor, net gain 5.7%
    Tot Reb: 52.8% on the floor, 46.8% off the floor, net gain 6.0%

    Tyler Hansbrough:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND9.HTM

    Off Reb: 31.3% on the floor, 23.8% off the floor, net gain 7.5%
    Def Reb: 71.8% on the floor, 69.3% off the floor, net gain 2.5%
    Tot Reb: 51.6% on the floor, 46.6% off the floor, net gain 5.0%

    Roy Hibbert:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND14.HTM

    Off Reb: 23.5% on the floor, 28.4% off the floor, net loss 4.9%
    Def Reb: 68.5% on the floor, 71.4% off the floor, net loss 2.9%
    Tot Reb 46.0% on the floor, 49.9% off the floor, net loss 3.9%

    Troy Murphy:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND10.HTM

    Off Reb: 23.8% on the floor, 28.4% off the floor, net loss 4.6%
    Def Reb: 69.6% on the floor, 70.3% off the floor, net loss 0.7%
    Tot Reb: 46.7% on the floor, 49.4% off the floor, net loss 2.6%


    Solomon Jones:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND11.HTM

    Off Reb: 27.5% on the floor, 25.9% off the floor, net gain 1.6%
    Def Reb: 67.1% on the floor, 70.7% off the floor, net loss 3.6%
    Tot Reb: 47.3% on the floor, 48.3% off the floor, net loss 1.0%

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Great work. Very enlightening.

    Obviously, Troy's numbers surprise me some. And I would have thought Roy had better numbers.

    But it does help explain why we seem to do so poorly when a "Top three" rebounder is in the game for us.
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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    My first reaction: Holy cow!

    My second reaction: How can this be?

    My third reaction: How would you expect the Pacers team rebounding to change when you take out a scorer and put in a rebounding specialist in his place?

    When Hibbert or Murphy comes out, it is often Foster that goes in. And Foster is a rebounding specialist. He sets a high standard. Hibbert doesn't equal Foster's rebounding because he hasn't yet learned how to do it in the NBA or because he doesn't have the hunger to go after 'em. Murphy doesn't equal Foster's rebounding because he is a prototypical stretch forward who plays out of position.

    This is a very interesting point. But before anyone begins to rave against Pacers players, please browse around at some other players' On-Off rebounding. See who else negatively impacts their team's rebounding. Guys like:

    Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Al Horford, Kevin Garnett, Andy Varejao and Duane Wade.

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    Last edited by Putnam; 12-20-2009 at 03:59 PM.
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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    I see Foster and Tyler boxing out further from the basket a lot of times, and it allows a teammate to get a board. Those two guys nearly always find their guy and put a body part on him, but it can take them out of the normal rebounding area.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    This was also fascinating to me in the "ON/OFF" stat department.

    Most of you are familiar with team offensive and defensive ratings. Those are point scored (or for defense, points allowed) per 100 possessions.

    Obviously, this means you want your offensive rating to be as high as possible, and your defensive rating to be as low as possible.

    Well, 82games.com keeps track of what those ratings are for every player, both when they're on the floor and off the floor.

    Keep in mind some of these players see very little time, or at least a lot less than others, so there will be some that would probably not look the same if they were constant rotation players.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/0910IND.HTM

    Mike Dunleavy:
    offense on 108.8 off 100.3 net 8.5
    defense on 107.0 off 106.3 net 0.7
    net 7.8

    Luther Head:
    offense on 106.2 off 101.0 net 5.2
    defense on 97.3 off 108.5 net -11.2
    net 16.4

    AJ Price:
    offense on 112.2 off 101.5 net 10.7
    defense on 98.2 off 106.8 net -8.6
    net 19.3

    Earl Watson:
    offense on 103.6 off 100.5 net 3.1
    defense on 103.8 off 108.9 net -5.1
    net 8.2

    Danny Granger:
    offense on 103.8 off 99.4 net 4.4
    defense on 108.7 off 102.9 net 5.8
    net -1.4

    Brandon Rush:
    offense on 100.0 off 104.8 net -4.8
    defense on 102.2 off 112.3 net -10.1
    net 5.3

    Jeff Foster:
    offense on 108.7 off 100.1 net 8.6
    defense on 109.1 off 105.6 net 3.5
    net 5.1

    Dahntay Jones:
    offense on 102.5 off 101.1 net 1.4
    defense on 105.9 off 107.3 net -1.4
    net 2.8

    Tyler Hansbrough:
    offense on 103.3 off 101.5 net 1.8
    defense on 109.6 off 105.1 net 4.5
    net -2.7

    Roy Hibbert:
    offense on 101.7 off 102.3 net -0.6
    defense on 103.9 off 108.6 net -4.7
    net 4.1

    Troy Murphy:
    offense on 94.3 off 108.9 net -14.6
    defense on 108.7 off 104.4 net 4.3
    net -18.9

    TJ Ford:
    offense on 99.3 off 105.4 net -6.1
    defense on 109.8 off 102.2 net 7.6
    net -13.7

    Solomon Jones:
    offense on 101.1 off 102.2 net -1.1
    defense on 110.3 off 105.5 net 4.8
    net -5.9

    Josh McRoberts:
    offense on 102.7 off 102.0 net 0.7
    defense on 123.0 off 105.9 net 17.1
    net -16.4

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    It is easy to draw conclusions from any stats, but the game is complex. Honestly, you are better off looking at stats and then going with your intuition. Sometimes you just have to go with what works.

    With that said, Daryl Morey is doing something right.

    I happen to think this highlights one of Troy's weaknesses, particularly when you consider the fact teams crank up D in the 4th and usually take him out of the game. This combo may the the prime reason I don't like his game.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    This was also fascinating to me in the "ON/OFF" stat department.

    Most of you are familiar with team offensive and defensive ratings. Those are point scored (or for defense, points allowed) per 100 possessions.

    Obviously, this means you want your offensive rating to be as high as possible, and your defensive rating to be as low as possible.

    Well, 82games.com keeps track of what those ratings are for every player, both when they're on the floor and off the floor.

    Keep in mind some of these players see very little time, or at least a lot less than others, so there will be some that would probably not look the same if they were constant rotation players.

    http://www.82games.com/0910/0910IND.HTM

    Mike Dunleavy:
    offense on 108.8 off 100.3 net 8.5
    defense on 107.0 off 106.3 net 0.7
    net 7.8

    Luther Head:
    offense on 106.2 off 101.0 net 5.2
    defense on 97.3 off 108.5 net -11.1
    net 16.3

    AJ Price:
    offense on 112.2 off 101.5 net 10.7
    defense on 98.2 off 106.8 net -8.6
    net 19.4

    Earl Watson:
    offense on 103.6 off 100.5 net 3.1
    defense on 103.8 off 108.9 net -5.1
    net 8.2

    Danny Granger:
    offense on 103.8 off 99.4 net 4.4
    defense on 108.7 off 102.9 net 5.8
    net -1.4

    Brandon Rush:
    offense on 100.0 off 104.8 net -4.9
    defense on 102.2 off 112.3 net -10.1
    net 5.2

    Jeff Foster:
    offense on 108.7 off 100.1 net 8.5
    defense on 109.1 off 105.6 net 3.4
    net 5.1

    Dahntay Jones:
    offense on 102.5 off 101.1 net 1.4
    defense on 105.9 off 107.3 net -1.4
    net 2.8

    Tyler Hansbrough:
    offense on 103.3 off 101.5 net 1.8
    defense on 109.6 off 105.1 net 4.5
    net -2.7

    Roy Hibbert:
    offense on 101.7 off 102.3 net -0.6
    defense on 103.9 off 108.6 net -4.7
    net 4.1

    Troy Murphy:
    offense on 94.3 off 108.9 net -14.6
    defense on 108.7 off 104.4 net 4.4
    net -19.0

    TJ Ford:
    offense on 99.3 off 105.4 net -6.1
    defense on 109.8 off 102.2 net 7.6
    net -13.7

    Solomon Jones:
    offense on 101.1 off 102.2 net -1.1
    defense on 110.3 off 105.5 net 4.9
    net -6.0

    Josh McRoberts:
    offense on 102.7 off 102.0 net 0.7
    defense on 123.0 off 105.9 net 17.1
    net -16.4
    I love that Head and Price are SO much better than everyone else it's almost laughable. And Head's a guy that can't get off the bench in scrub minutes sometimes. And Price is a guy that outplays the vets in practice, is supposed to be getting minutes every game but doesn't..and still, clearly team plays better when he's in.

    And for both of them, *And I think I notice it more with Price because I'm a fan and he's a point* it's clear that the Pacers play better when those two are in. It's intuitive, and the stats back it up.

    Now, with Price, there's the possibility that things just look better when he's in because TJ is most likely out. But at the same time, the same could be said of Watson,and Price is a lot better than Watson's too.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    So, basically discounting players who have had little playing time for the most part, Our lineup according to this should be:

    Starters and finishers:

    Watson
    Rush
    Dunleavy
    Hansbrough
    Hibbert (Foster possibly when healthy, otherwise Hibbert)

    and the second unit should be:

    Ford
    D. Jones
    Granger (when he comes back and until he gets healthy for the first time this year)
    Murphy
    S. Jones (assuming Hibbert starts and Foster is not healthy)

    with spot minutes for Price and Head to give the rest of the players a breather.

    Make it so!

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    So, basically discounting players who have had little playing time for the most part, Our lineup according to this should be:

    Starters and finishers:

    Watson
    Rush
    Dunleavy
    Hansbrough
    Hibbert (Foster possibly when healthy, otherwise Hibbert)

    and the second unit should be:

    Ford
    D. Jones
    Granger (when he comes back and until he gets healthy for the first time this year)
    Murphy
    S. Jones (assuming Hibbert starts and Foster is not healthy)

    with spot minutes for Price and Head to give the rest of the players a breather.

    Make it so!
    Agreed. But I didn't need stats to figure it out. Just watch the games.
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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Agreed. But I didn't need stats to figure it out. Just watch the games.
    I didn't need the stats, either. They just happen, in this case, to match the maddeningly obvious so far this season. Somehow, our coaching staff watches the same games we all do and cannot, or will not, recognize what appears to be right in front of them.

    Maybe we need to schedule all of our games for about 11:00 a.m. when our morning practice sessions are now. That must be when our current lineup choices perform their best, because after all what we don't see during practices goes a long way towards determining who plays when on our team come game time.

    My guess is it has something to do with circadian rhythms or something. About 8:30 to 9:00 p.m. we tend to fall asleep due to fatigue.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    I think Count is with me in relying far more on reb% than raw numbers, and I have gone to this before when discussing Troy's true impact on the game.

    We accept that with Roy there is a rebounding issue. Not like, just accept. But that's not his reason for being out there.

    Jeff and Tyler both are meant to be rebound impact guys. I'm pleasantly surprised to see Tyler's impact as high as it is, that's a good stat for him.

    But clearly the damning stat is Troy's DEFENSIVE rebounding. The case is made that his low offensive numbers is just as simple as that he is away from the rim. I'm not sold on that since we even have guards like Rush that come to the rim well for offensive boards.

    But Troy is accused of bumping up numbers by stealing boards from teammates more than by actually winning tough battles against opponents. To me the DEF% shows that this is in fact somewhat true. If you have Troy out there to do 2 things and that's already pushing it in terms of his value balance (gain v give), it's really bad if you take away the impact of one of those 2 items.


    I've been chastised in person even by several Troy defenders for questioning his rebounding. If I cite him losing a battle to player X, the response is "yes, but that's player X, he's good". My response seems to fall on deaf ears but it's basically this - if he's an NBA leading rebounder shouldn't he be beating out the other NBA leaders for rebounds a healthy chunk of the time. That means BOOZER and DUNCAN and AMARE.

    If you go "yes, but they are good" then think about the implication there. It's saying he's not good, not at that level at least. And in turn that means that his elite rebounding numbers aren't legit.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    BTW, Tyler and Jeff both get dinged on their offensive boards for close range miss and rebound. Going 2-6 and rebounding 2 of your own misses will bump up your OFF% for rebounding. Of course if you make your miss then it's an okay trade. Go 2-4 with 0 rebounds instead of 2-6 with 2.

    But FG% has to be a factor here since it's directly creating rebounding opportunities. And think about the impact of rebounding even 2 of your own misses. If there are 25 misses while you are out there and your team gets 5 of them, that's 20%. Turn that into 7 of 27 and it's up to 26%. Your on/off % just went to 6%. You are an awesome rebounding helper...except you aren't. You just missed 2 shots at the rim and got your own rebound. Other than that you had 0 impact.

    You think 2 of those per game aren't much, but by the standards here it turns you into a star offensive rebounder.



    Also both Roy and Solo are slightly hurt as shot blockers. I don't know how you translate that because some block attempts come up empty. I'd guess you could rough how many block attempts a player makes vs how many he attempts, and in both cases those are creating or possibly creating a shot miss that the player himself will be out of position to recover. Of course if his team doesn't get the ball then it was empty I realize. Just an extra impact on the stat itself, one that has a legit impact as the OFF example shows. 2 or 3 extra rebounds created by defending the rim alters the reb% if your team doesn't get it, or if they do too.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Yeah, Murphy's def reb really jumped out at me, too. Seems to support the general theory most of us have about him.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Yeah, Murphy's def reb really jumped out at me, too. Seems to support the general theory most of us have about him.
    career totals
    or dr
    Troy 8.4 6.3 2.1 25%




    duncan 11.7 8.6 3.1 .265%

    Nope it does not support the general theory that most of you have about him.
    Last edited by GuffeyRay; 12-21-2009 at 01:40 PM.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by GuffeyRay View Post
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    career totals
    or dr
    Troy 8.4 6.3 2.1 25%




    duncan 11.7 8.6 3.1 .265%

    Nope it does not support the general theory that most of you have about him.
    What the hell does this even mean? Or prove?
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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    What the hell does this even mean? Or prove?
    It means that Duncan is only slightly better at getting defensive rebounds than Troy is. This points out the nonsense that posters are throwing out there as fact.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Guffey, could you clear up exactly what those numbers are? And could you link to where you got the numbers, please?

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Guffey, could you clear up exactly what those numbers are? And could you link to where you got the numbers, please?
    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3173

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3524

    Those numbers are career rebounding totals for Troy and Duncan. Somehow when I posted the numbers they got scrunched together. They are total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and defensive rebounds. The percentage figure is the defensive rebounds to total rebounds.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    Where did you get the %'s from? I can't find those from your links.

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    If you really want to compare him to Tim Duncan, here are Duncan's rebounding stats from the same source I used for my initial post:

    Troy Murphy:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09IND10.HTM

    Off Reb: 23.8% on the floor, 28.4% off the floor, net loss 4.6%
    Def Reb: 69.6% on the floor, 70.3% off the floor, net loss 0.7%
    Tot Reb: 46.7% on the floor, 49.4% off the floor, net loss 2.6%

    Tim Duncan:
    http://www.82games.com/0910/09SAS13.HTM

    Off Reb: 27.6% on the floor, 31.6% off the floor, net loss 4.0%
    Def Reb: 74.4% on the floor, 67.9% off the floor, net gain 6.4%
    Tot Reb: 51.0% on the floor, 49.8% off the floor, net gain 1.2%

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    Default Re: Rebounding and Daryl Morey

    By the way, unless Tim is having a bad year somehow, I really have to question the second stat I posted about in post #5 of this thread now that I looked this up on him.

    Here's Duncan's ON/OFF for Offense (points per 100 possessions) and Defense (points allowed per 100 possessions):

    Tim Duncan:
    offense on 110.3 off 114.7 net -4.4
    defense on 105.0 off 109.8 net -4.7
    net 0.4

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