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Thread: Couple of quick thoughts

  1. #26

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Could be cause Tyler is playing above expectations so far. Murphy sees the writing on the wall. Wants out of Indiana.

    LOL all possible.

  2. #27

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by theboyjwo View Post
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    Could be cause Tyler is playing above expectations so far. Murphy sees the writing on the wall. Wants out of Indiana.

    LOL all possible.
    Good point.

  3. #28

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    I have one thought, and it's that Murphy's +/- is a whopping -122, and Ford's is an equally shocking -123. The next lowest +/- on the team is Granger's -58. Think about that for a second.

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...=9&team=Pacers

    That said, it's nice to see that Murph has played much better in the past couple of games. I still have some hope for him. I've pretty much given up on Ford at this point however...

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  5. #29

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by bphil View Post
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    I have one thought, and it's that Murphy's +/- is a whopping -122, and Ford's is an equally shocking -123. The next lowest +/- on the team is Granger's -58. Think about that for a second.

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusmi...=9&team=Pacers

    That said, it's nice to see that Murph has played much better in the past couple of games. I still have some hope for him. I've pretty much given up on Ford at this point however...
    This is why I can't put much faith into the +/-. If the team has a winning record then those 3 would have a + rating most likely. Those 3 players touch the ball the most during any game, so they will have the biggest numbers either way. Unless another player steps up out of no where, your +/- for a group of starters will ebb and flow with wins and losses.

  6. #30
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by theboyjwo View Post
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    This is why I can't put much faith into the +/-. If the team has a winning record then those 3 would have a + rating most likely. Those 3 players touch the ball the most during any game, so they will have the biggest numbers either way. Unless another player steps up out of no where, your +/- for a group of starters will ebb and flow with wins and losses.
    Umm...isn't that kind of the point?

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  8. #31
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    You also have to figure that the starters will be in against the best the other team has to offer, so if we are getting beat by better players it's likely to be the starters who show the negatives because of it.
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  9. #32

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    Umm...isn't that kind of the point?
    Yes exactly. It its too skewed by wins and losses in my opinion and not an accurate representation of the players themselves. Losses could be easily attributed to Coaching. Granger getting a -58 can be attributed to Obrien saying shoot whenever you want, Green light for you.

    I bet if you played the top 5 players in terms of +/- on this team we would get blown out. Its just a tool to indicate patterns nothing more. I can't put much faith in it by itself.

  10. #33

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    You also have to figure that the starters will be in against the best the other team has to offer, so if we are getting beat by better players it's likely to be the starters who show the negatives because of it.
    Murph and Ford's +/- numbers are more than double that of any other player on the team, including any of the other starters. No matter how you try to spin that into a non-negative, you still can't get away from it I'm afraid...

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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Cherokee View Post
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    Is it possible Murphy's recent improved play is because his back is finally better? Back injuries can be pretty limiting, even after they're good enough for a guy to play.
    I'd say yes.

    He's been looking a lot better this past week compared to a few weeks back.

  12. #35
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by bphil View Post
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    Murph and Ford's +/- numbers are more than double that of any other player on the team, including any of the other starters. No matter how you try to spin that into a non-negative, you still can't get away from it I'm afraid...
    Certainly not saying it explains all of it, but it is something you have to take into account. Otherwise you start thinking your garbage time guys with good +/- are better than your starters with bad ones. Doesn't mean your starters are great, but you have to adjust.
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  13. #36

    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    The other thing to consider is the other four players on the court when guys are racking up minus numbers. That is why I disregard +/- for individuals and prefer to view them as +/- for five-man groups. That gives you a truer analysis IMHO. Still, on a losing team, even those won't be too great.
    Last edited by Cherokee; 12-14-2009 at 03:33 PM. Reason: fixed typos

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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    We played 2 poor teams, got 2 wins, and hey, I like winning -- so cool, but let's not get carried away and thing our problems are fixed.

    Call me in a couple weeks when we take another 3-6 game slide and Murphy/JOB/TJ/whoever's head is being called for again.

    The whole Murphy is playing better thing... yes, in 2 games against 2 poor teams Murphy had ok games. Once again, let's see him do it with any consistency against teams that aren't a mess. Yea, not happening.

    At least we'll show enough life against other bad teams to avoid a top 5 selection again.

  15. #38
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by theboyjwo View Post
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    This is why I can't put much faith into the +/-. If the team has a winning record then those 3 would have a + rating most likely. Those 3 players touch the ball the most during any game, so they will have the biggest numbers either way. Unless another player steps up out of no where, your +/- for a group of starters will ebb and flow with wins and losses.
    You can be somewhat dismissive of the stat, and I agree that it has it's limitations, but when it's so far out of whack for 2 players, it definitely has some meaning.

    The team has been outscored by 78 points so far this year. That means that, had a player played every minute of every game, he'd be a -78. Murphy and Ford are the only two players who's +/- numbers exceed that stat. In other words, Ford and Murphy are the only two players for whom it can be accurately said that we've been much better this season when they're not playing.

    There have been 1,008 minutes available to Pacer players so far this season. Murphy has played 466 minutes (46.2%). If his +/- were directly correlated with the overall average play of the team, it would be -36. The fact that it is more than triple that number is significant. Ford has played 550 minutes (54.5%). His number should be a -43. The -123 he has posted is again nearly triple.

    What this does is confirm what many people have been saying all year: On the whole, Murphy and Ford have been hurting the team with their play this season. We are a worse basketball team when they are on the floor.

    There's some validity to the idea that they're playing against the starters, but it does not sufficiently explain their ridiculously low numbers. Granger, D. Jones, Rush, and Hibbert have all played similar numbers of minutes to Ford and Murphy. They have also played many of their minutes against the other teams first unit, yet their +/- scores are much, much higher. Even a guy like Brandon Rush, who's been easily the 3rd most criticized player on the team this season, has a +/- score that's roughly 1/6 of Ford's and Murphy's. Even though he hasn't played well, his presence has not negatively affected the team like Ford and Murphy.

    This isn't to say that they don't have the potential to turn it around, or that they are bad basketball players. By all accounts they should be 2 of the 4 best players on the team.
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  17. #39
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    And I would think Granger's -58 may be partially explained by the fact that he's on the court with Murph and TJ probably more than any other player.
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  18. #40
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Strongly disagree on Rush. He didn't have the shot going, but I didn't see a single other aspect of his game that was lacking by either his own standards or in comparison to teammates. He's been aggressive on rebounding which has shown in his totals, he moves well without the ball, makes himself available for plays rather than just watching (when possible), and has continued to be part of some of the strongest 5 man groups.


    We want him to be the scorer, but consider Reggie and Derrick at the 2-3. Is Rush carrying a lighter load with scoring really so different? Was that pairing ineffective?



    Troy has had a couple of good offensive games, but he's been getting killed at the other end. Versus the Nets he was badly beaten for a few boards by Josh Boone, but then came down and knocked DJones out of the way to get one, per the norm. Aldridge took him to the woodshed in the Portland game as well. And Jamison went completely off.

    So "better" is great, but still relative. Truly usefully better will be when the other frontline doesn't put the bib on as they pull their chair up to the buffet.



    OTOH, Dun is finding his shot and I have a lot of faith in him. I actually now rate him slightly better than Jackson. I think he was custom made to be a great 6th man and I'd like to see him continue in that role. I think it would benefit the team and himself quite a bit.


    Watson is a bit down in his play and you have to assume that's injury. He's made some mistakes and also been beaten on defense in ways that he wasn't prior to the last week.

    Dahntay is also a bit off his game as well. I know he scored well a few games ago but I've seen him struggle on defense as well as offense, especially getting burned away from the ball.


    Tyler has notched a couple of good games, more in line with his style I think. However my arguments are obviously that you have to be careful of fool's gold and be certain that the plays a player is making are available to him in most games. That said, I'd love to see him be the next Foster, the hustle boards ugly scoring, making stuff go player. I just don't see him having the same ability that Foster had when he came out. Anyway, enough of that.


    IMO even when Roy personally struggles the team seems to go better with him as the focal point to work off of. It's like an anchor that stabilizes their play and makes them work a more proper offense, slowing them down and forcing a little ball movement prior to shooting.

    That said, it should be noted that Brandon is on somewhat of an upward swing at the moment and it seems to me that his body language and movement have noticeably improved on the offensive end (especially when AJ or Watson is running the point).

    Last three games Rush is shooting 50% (13 of 26), averaging 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .6 blocks, .3 steals, 9.3 pts - he's not too far from the 10-12 pts a game some have said they'd be happy with. So I also wouldn't be offended if Brandon continued to get around 30 minutes to see if this is a blip or if he is finally getting on track on the offensive end.
    Completely agree.


    I do like seeing Luther Head get some minutes. He gets crushed on defense but like Troy he can come back the other way, and unlike Troy when he plays outside he's actually a guard and supposed to be out there. What's the point of stretching the floor if there is no one willing to play inside too?

    And Luther's offensive awareness is outstanding. Watch him run out in front of transition. He sprints, he drags through the baseline to pull his defender up the court with him and often away from the ball. This allows the ball to follow him up without a double and makes himself available for the weakside kickout or even a follow through down the lane from that side. He works on offense and that helps make the offense go forward.

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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    My point had nothing to do with Murphy. My point was about some of the coach criticism
    So your point is that because players might have a couple good games, amid a dozen or so stinkers that there should never be any coaching criticism?

    Head scratcher.

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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    My point had nothing to do with Murphy. My point was about some of the coach criticism
    But its the same point.

    A) Murph is playing poorly
    B) JOB is making a poor choice in letting Murph play

    "A" is the reason you state "B". "B" is a different point than whether Troy is playing well or not. Troy could be playing bad and a counter to "B" might be "let him play through it" or "no better options".


    And as I pointed out, I thought he struggled a lot vs New Jersey still. Hitting shots is one part of the game. Giving them up at the same rate at the other end neutralizes that.

    Troy often lives off the chances created by others, including pushing it up so he can trail into a 3, but he rarely creates chances for his teammates. Sometimes sure, everyone has an anecdote of success, but I would argue that it's not very common with him, especially this season.



    All of this with Troy, JOB, Tyler, whatever just kills me. It's like Isiah winning a game in his final April here and people seeing that as a sign that he had it turned around. Sometimes there is a lot of momentum coming into a game and that game alone just isn't going to kill all that off instantly.

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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Dun is finding his shot and I have a lot of faith in him. I actually now rate him slightly better than Jackson.
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    Default Re: Couple of quick thoughts

    As I have said many times I lilke Murphy as a player, Tyler seems to be settleing down and playing ball rather than just running around like crazy, Hibbert is so inconsistant! At times he really seems to be on top of things, other times he dissappears. Much like Herb Williams used to do. I hope 90% of the minutes for the bigs are divided among Murphy, Tyler and Roy with Foster getting the rest (I'd like to see him more but I don't believe that his back will take it)

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