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Thread: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

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    Default Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I like Tyler a lot. His physicality is going to be huge for us. I can't wait to see Tyler and Roy when they get a feel for each others game. I think Roy/Ty/Danny could be one of the best front lines in the league in time.
    BUT, I can't help but think he's really going to have to adjust the 2nd time around the league. His unorthodox shots in the paint that he keeps getting "fouled" on probably aren't going to keep getting those calls. Defenders are going to learn to stay a step away in the paint and they'll still swat those weak shots with ease. Heck, some of those plays he's going to the line on, the defenders hit the ball with their ELBOWS, they were so high above Ty. And the refs are going to learn that he "flops" even when nobody touches him on those shots. His free throws are going to drop dramatically I fear.
    That said, I still love his game and look forward to him getting in real NBA condition here before long. He's going to be setting monster picks for Danny very soon.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Tyler's tenacity and knack for the game are going to make him a rotational player, no matter how much he struggles to transition his offensive game into the nba.

    Tyler just really needs to develop a consistent jump shot, which I think will become his offensive niche. Carlos Boozer had to do the same thing when he came out of Duke.

    I think Tyler's ceiling really depends on Roy's development too. If Roy can become a dominant back to the basket player, Tyler can start alongside him and be relied upon for hustle, defense, and jump shooting. If that is the case, he could probably average 14 and 8.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Good enough to be a long-time starter in the NBA.

    Best Case: Zach Randolph with double the IQ
    Worst Case: Ikechukwu Somtochukwu Diogu
    Median: Luis Scola

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I think his best case is something like 18 points and 8 rebounds a game. Most likely scenario is probably like 14 and 7.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    Good enough to be a long-time starter in the NBA.

    Best Case: Zach Randolph with double the IQ
    Worst Case: Ikechukwu Somtochukwu Diogu
    Median: Luis Scola

    Scola is not even that much worse than Randolph, if at all:
    SCOLA:
    G MIN FGM-A FG% 3PM-A 3P% FTM-A FT% OFF DEF TOT STL BLK TO PF AST PTS

    179 27.8 865-1657 .522 1-7 .143 387-538 .719 2.3 5.5 7.8 .80 .20 1.47 3.03 1.4 11.8

    RANDOLPH:

    G MIN FGM-A FG% 3PM-A 3P% FTM-A FT% OFF DEF TOT STL BLK TO PF AST PTS
    521 30.1 3458-7398 .467 85-299 .284 1738-2254 .771 2.6 5.7 8.3 .72 .28 2.21 2.39 1.7 16.8
    Last edited by dal9; 11-27-2009 at 04:33 PM.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I'd take Scola over Randolph every time and it has nothing to do with attitude.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I would say a Median of Luis Scola is a bit of an overstatement.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    ya as to the original question, i would be thrilled (and surprised) if he turns into a scola.

    im thinking more along the lines of a pre-injury Brian Cardinal, if he develops his 3-pt shooting. Potentially, a better rebounder.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I think Boozer is an interesting comparison. How good was he his first year?
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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by Indy View Post
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    I think his best case is something like 18 points and 8 rebounds a game. Most likely scenario is probably like 14 and 7.
    Do you realize how high of a standard that is ??

    18-8: Zach Randolph, Boozer, Bynum, Bosh, Dirk. That's it.

    I'd be more than satisfied with 10 & 5 from him.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    Do you realize how high of a standard that is ??

    18-8: Zach Randolph, Boozer, Bynum, Bosh, Dirk. That's it.

    I'd be more than satisfied with 10 & 5 from him.
    He's knocking on 8 & 5 in about 17 minutes. Its not absurd to expect a little more production if he gets more minutes. Linear progression is probably unrealistic, but 12 and 7 in 30 minutes seems reasonable.

    I want to see better decision making and more aggression going after boards. Too many wild shots down low, but I've already noticed adjustment.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by judicata View Post
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    He's knocking on 8 & 5 in about 17 minutes.
    True ............. but usually against & with 2nd units.

    I'm not knocking the kid. He's a good ball player and will definitely bring a lot to the Pacers over the years. My point is that people shoot off numbers without seeing any sort of baseline or making a comparison.

    And until we get rid of the ReboundRobber, boards for anyone on the Pacers will be hard to come by.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    How good? He will be good enough to start for most teams in the NBA, but will never be an all-star. He will probably hit the 15ppg and 8 board per game level or thereabouts multiple times in his career.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    You gotta remember Tyler is a rookie and is gonna make rookie mistakes. The thing that impresses me the most is his ability to recognize his mistakes and make corrective action to improve his chances of success the next time he is in the same situation. You can't help but like the kid's work ethic and BB IQ. I see him as a starter in this league for a long time and may push for an all star spot once or twice. 15 and 8 would be a nice place for him to be.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    Do you realize how high of a standard that is ??

    18-8: Zach Randolph, Boozer, Bynum, Bosh, Dirk. That's it.

    I'd be more than satisfied with 10 & 5 from him.
    18 & 8 is good production, but it's nowhere near the elite production you're making it out to be. There are plenty of lesser known guys who are putting up numbers around 18 & 8 this year, or have done so recently:

    LaMarcus Aldridge
    Gerald Wallace
    Andrew Bynum
    Chris Kaman
    Luol Deng
    David Lee
    Josh Smith
    Brook Lopez
    Al Jefferson
    David West

    There are also plenty of young talent that look like 18 & 8 is very attainable in their near future: Luis Scola, Jason Thompson, Marc Gasol, Ersan Ilyasova, Michael Beasley, etc.

    A few months back I said 14 & 7 was Tyler's downside. I've seen nothing that warrants changing that statement.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I hate this whole "He will be good enough to start on most NBA teams" crap. It's simply not true. Of course your prediction is as good as mine, but if you ask me: if you take what Tyler will look like at his absolute peak and compare it to today's NBA (from a power forward perspective), he could not start on: Toronto (Bosh), Boston (KG, Sheed), New York (Lee), Detroit (Vill), Orlando (Shard), Atlanta (Smooth), Washington (Jamison), Spurs (Duncan), Mavs (Dirk), NO (West), Memphis (Randolph), Denver (KMart's D is what Den needs and is at a level Tyler will never reach), Utah (Boozer), LA (Pau), Clippers (Kaman/Griffin TBD), Phoenix (Amar'e).

    The rest are mainly toss ups. As has been said being on Scola's level would be a nice surprise. I doubt he will ever be as good as Noah is doing this year, his college champion comparison, because he lacks the defensive shot-blocking presence and the seven foot height. He could be as good as Aldridge (doubtful), Thaddeus Young (maybe) and Anderson Varejaou (probable). I'm predicting I would always much rather have Jeff Green, who is also still growing. He will never be as smooth around the rim as, and have the touch of, Kevin Love (all else being ~equal in their primes). He doesn't have the scoring ability of Beasley and never will, but he has some upsides Beas doesn't. He will probably be of around equal importance to a team like Charlotte with Diaw. Hell, I don't think Tyler will ever be good enough to even start over what Murphy is now.

    Point being, Tyler Hansbrough will most likely never be anything more than a reserve in this league. But he has the potential to be a very valuable reserve. I like him a lot and I think he can be a solid part of our franchise, but if he's starting then I'm shaking.

    P.S. Comparing him to Zach Randolph at all makes no sense, because Randolph has incredible touch and an uncanny ability to put the ball in the hole. Regardless of all the rest of Randolph's game, Tyler will never be even a fraction of the scorer Randolph is. Most NBA players won't. Can he be a better player? Maybe in other areas he will be a more efficient player, but you can't say that the man who masters in jumping into his opponent's and flipping up a shot will ever be on ZRandolph's scoring level. Hate Rand all you want but the dude can flat out score the rock.
    Last edited by quinnthology; 11-28-2009 at 03:06 AM.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I'm shocked with how high some of ya'll are on him.

    I love Psycho T, I really do. I am also a die hard Tar Heels fan and have loved Hansbrough since his first game in Carolina Blue. However, I don't think this guy will get anything close to All-Star level. I see him as a great bench player for years to come. I don't know that he will ever be good starter, but I could see him being in the running for 6th man of the year a lot.

    Maybe its moreso the fact I could never see an NBA Championship team with him as the starting PF. If he can become a defensive force and a rebounding machine - that could change, but I didn't see enough of that at Carolina to make me think he will become that player. I love him as a high energy guy off the bench who just terrorizes the other team and wears them out. I will be happy with that.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by quinnthology View Post
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    P.S. Comparing him to Zach Randolph at all makes no sense, because Randolph has incredible touch and an uncanny ability to put the ball in the hole.
    Those are the exact reasons I choose Randolph as a comparison - Tyler posses the same attributes. They both have ungraceful but effective post games, complimented by a nice shooting touch.



    This is Randolph at his peak, and yet he shows nothing in his arsenal that Hansbrough can't do right now. Hell, Randolph even has a little baby hook that's remarkably similar to the one Hansbrough's used recently.

    Quote Originally Posted by quinnthology View Post
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    Regardless of all the rest of Randolph's game, Tyler will never be even a fraction of the scorer Randolph is. Most NBA players won't. Can he be a better player? Maybe in other areas he will be a more efficient player, but you can't say that the man who masters in jumping into his opponent's and flipping up a shot will ever be on ZRandolph's scoring level. Hate Rand all you want but the dude can flat out score the rock.
    Hansbrough's already put to rest the idea that his offensive game is nothing more than jumping into opponents and hoping for the foul. He's got post moves and a soft shooting touch. His knack for getting to the line like a beast is just the icing on the cake. As for Randolph, you make him out to be an elite scorer, yet this just isn't backed up by the data. Randolph has career averages of 16.8 points per game on .467 shooting - good, but a level unattainable by the ACC's all-time leading scorer? Hardly. Even during his peak scoring years Randolph has fluctuated between the high teens and low twenties - not exactly the Wilt Chamberlain-like production you're making it out to be.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by quinnthology View Post
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    I hate this whole "He will be good enough to start on most NBA teams" crap. It's simply not true. Of course your prediction is as good as mine, but if you ask me: if you take what Tyler will look like at his absolute peak and compare it to today's NBA (from a power forward perspective), he could not start on: Toronto (Bosh), Boston (KG, Sheed), New York (Lee), Detroit (Vill), Orlando (Shard), Atlanta (Smooth), Washington (Jamison), Spurs (Duncan), Mavs (Dirk), NO (West), Memphis (Randolph), Denver (KMart's D is what Den needs and is at a level Tyler will never reach), Utah (Boozer), LA (Pau), Clippers (Kaman/Griffin TBD), Phoenix (Amar'e).

    The rest are mainly toss ups. As has been said being on Scola's level would be a nice surprise. I doubt he will ever be as good as Noah is doing this year, his college champion comparison, because he lacks the defensive shot-blocking presence and the seven foot height. He could be as good as Aldridge (doubtful), Thaddeus Young (maybe) and Anderson Varejaou (probable). I'm predicting I would always much rather have Jeff Green, who is also still growing. He will never be as smooth around the rim as, and have the touch of, Kevin Love (all else being ~equal in their primes). He doesn't have the scoring ability of Beasley and never will, but he has some upsides Beas doesn't. He will probably be of around equal importance to a team like Charlotte with Diaw. Hell, I don't think Tyler will ever be good enough to even start over what Murphy is now.

    Point being, Tyler Hansbrough will most likely never be anything more than a reserve in this league. But he has the potential to be a very valuable reserve. I like him a lot and I think he can be a solid part of our franchise, but if he's starting then I'm shaking.

    P.S. Comparing him to Zach Randolph at all makes no sense, because Randolph has incredible touch and an uncanny ability to put the ball in the hole. Regardless of all the rest of Randolph's game, Tyler will never be even a fraction of the scorer Randolph is. Most NBA players won't. Can he be a better player? Maybe in other areas he will be a more efficient player, but you can't say that the man who masters in jumping into his opponent's and flipping up a shot will ever be on ZRandolph's scoring level. Hate Rand all you want but the dude can flat out score the rock.
    As for the phrase "most teams in the NBA", I suppose that's a bit of a stretch based on what we know at this point. However, I would definitely not wrap Charlie V and David Lee into the "unattainable" group. They are in a tier that T-Hans is capable of entering. Also, I disagree completely that he cannot be as good or better than Troy Murphy.

    David West is probably better than he will ever be, but I would not make that conclusion during the first month of his NBA career.

    Anyway, players develop and I think preconcieved notions are running absolutely wild with Tyler.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by quinnthology View Post
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    I hate this whole "He will be good enough to start on most NBA teams" crap. It's simply not true. Of course your prediction is as good as mine, but if you ask me: if you take what Tyler will look like at his absolute peak and compare it to today's NBA (from a power forward perspective), he could not start on: Toronto (Bosh), Boston (KG, Sheed), New York (Lee), Detroit (Vill), Orlando (Shard), Atlanta (Smooth), Washington (Jamison), Spurs (Duncan), Mavs (Dirk), NO (West), Memphis (Randolph), Denver (KMart's D is what Den needs and is at a level Tyler will never reach), Utah (Boozer), LA (Pau), Clippers (Kaman/Griffin TBD), Phoenix (Amar'e).

    The rest are mainly toss ups. As has been said being on Scola's level would be a nice surprise. I doubt he will ever be as good as Noah is doing this year, his college champion comparison, because he lacks the defensive shot-blocking presence and the seven foot height. He could be as good as Aldridge (doubtful), Thaddeus Young (maybe) and Anderson Varejaou (probable). I'm predicting I would always much rather have Jeff Green, who is also still growing. He will never be as smooth around the rim as, and have the touch of, Kevin Love (all else being ~equal in their primes). He doesn't have the scoring ability of Beasley and never will, but he has some upsides Beas doesn't. He will probably be of around equal importance to a team like Charlotte with Diaw. Hell, I don't think Tyler will ever be good enough to even start over what Murphy is now.

    Point being, Tyler Hansbrough will most likely never be anything more than a reserve in this league. But he has the potential to be a very valuable reserve. I like him a lot and I think he can be a solid part of our franchise, but if he's starting then I'm shaking.

    P.S. Comparing him to Zach Randolph at all makes no sense, because Randolph has incredible touch and an uncanny ability to put the ball in the hole. Regardless of all the rest of Randolph's game, Tyler will never be even a fraction of the scorer Randolph is. Most NBA players won't. Can he be a better player? Maybe in other areas he will be a more efficient player, but you can't say that the man who masters in jumping into his opponent's and flipping up a shot will ever be on ZRandolph's scoring level. Hate Rand all you want but the dude can flat out score the rock.
    Outside of Duncan and Gasol, no one on your list of "He'll never be as good as this guy" produced more than 13 and 7 their rookie year. Given the kind of minutes that some of those guys got, I'm fairly certain that he could.

    I think its a little earlier to be talking about his ceiling like we've got it all figured out. He's shown promise and shortcomings. He's never going to jump out of the gym like Amare, but he is strong on fundamentals, and if he settles down his jumper, learns to use the glass a little more, and tunes in to the mental game more by using more pump fakes and things like that, I see good things.

    Big guys can develop. Sure, Tyler has more college under his belt than the above list (nearly combined ), but lets give him some more quality minutes before we write him off as only a 6th man.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Murphy and Hans stats as rookies. I would give Hans the edge on his better rebounding numbers and points scored...even with less minutes. Percentage-wise, the variance here is actually pretty significant. Also, I am sure players would prefer to be defended by Murphy.

    Murphy
    17 minutes
    42% FG%
    3.9 rebounds
    .9 assists
    1 turnover
    .4 steals
    .3 blocks
    2.7 fouls (wow, Murphy must have tried to defend as a rookie...his fouls are worse than Hans!)
    5.9 ppg

    T-Hans
    15 minutes
    38 FG%
    4.7 rebounds
    1.1 assists
    .7 turnovers
    .3 steals
    .4 blocks
    2.2 fouls
    7.6 ppg

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    I can't see him ever being a starter on a playoff team. But he certainly has a spot on a roster.
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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by judicata View Post
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    Outside of Duncan and Gasol, no one on your list of "He'll never be as good as this guy" produced more than 13 and 7 their rookie year. Given the kind of minutes that some of those guys got, I'm fairly certain that he could.
    To me it's irrelevant what all the dominant bigs got their first years and then grew in to. That's the point of Tyler: what we see is what we get. We drafted the player who we will have for his whole career, with very limited but steady growth. That's why it wasn't a gamble. He's going to come in, produce, and steadily produce for 10 years. That's why what he does this rookie year is a huge indicator of who he will be.

    Like I said, I'm not trying to act like I know everything. Your guess is as good as mine, but this is just what I think of Tyler's future.

    Quote Originally Posted by GrangeRusHibbert View Post
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    Those are the exact reasons I choose Randolph as a comparison - Tyler posses the same attributes. They both have ungraceful but effective post games, complimented by a nice shooting touch.
    I didn't mean that Randolph is an elite scoring big man, but rather that he possesses an elite ability to score for a big man, if that makes sense. We all know that Randolph is a guy who will never live up to his potential as a player, but to me you are hard-pressed to find too many guys who can score as consistently as Zach inside and outside of the paint.

    As for Tyler possessing everything he needs to reach Zach's level of scoring, it simply isn't true. Zach can get into the lane with smoothness: crossovers and between-the-legs, reverse pivots and jab steps. Tyler can put his head down and dribble hard into the rim. Zach's jumper is awesome, and we simply don't know how Tyler's will develop. It could grow to the level of Zach's, but I doubt Ty will ever be able to create his own shot as well as Zach, either off the dribble or being able to shoot with a man right in your face. This is one of the reasons why Zach is a great scorer, he simply doesn't care if he's shooting too much. He has an extreme level of confidence and wants to score the ball no matter what. I think Ty recognizes and will continue to recognize that that's not his role in this league.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    Quote Originally Posted by quinnthology View Post
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    To me it's irrelevant what all the dominant bigs got their first years and then grew in to. That's the point of Tyler: what we see is what we get. We drafted the player who we will have for his whole career, with very limited but steady growth. That's why it wasn't a gamble. He's going to come in, produce, and steadily produce for 10 years. That's why what he does this rookie year is a huge indicator of who he will be.

    Like I said, I'm not trying to act like I know everything. Your guess is as good as mine, but this is just what I think of Tyler's future.



    I didn't mean that Randolph is an elite scoring big man, but rather that he possesses an elite ability to score for a big man, if that makes sense. We all know that Randolph is a guy who will never live up to his potential as a player, but to me you are hard-pressed to find too many guys who can score as consistently as Zach inside and outside of the paint.

    As for Tyler possessing everything he needs to reach Zach's level of scoring, it simply isn't true. Zach can get into the lane with smoothness: crossovers and between-the-legs, reverse pivots and jab steps. Tyler can put his head down and dribble hard into the rim. Zach's jumper is awesome, and we simply don't know how Tyler's will develop. It could grow to the level of Zach's, but I doubt Ty will ever be able to create his own shot as well as Zach, either off the dribble or being able to shoot with a man right in your face. This is one of the reasons why Zach is a great scorer, he simply doesn't care if he's shooting too much. He has an extreme level of confidence and wants to score the ball no matter what. I think Ty recognizes and will continue to recognize that that's not his role in this league.
    Zach Randolph has all-star level talent and I seriously doubt Tyler will ever have his ability to post up, or even his perimeter shot.

    However, I think Tyler is more aggressive than McDyess (post injured version) and might develop into that type of player...but with more offense and a little more activity. That would make him a fairly solid starting PF...but I do think that's his best-case. Worst case as a veteran, Tyler is a very effective guy off the bench. Once he gets some experience and learns where and when to pick his spots, he will kill some teams. He's simply not going to be that prototypical 6'10-11" PF who blocks shots and rebounds.

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    Default Re: Tyler Hansbrough, how good?

    The answer is:

    He'll start for us for many years. Doing the little things. Being the energy guy. Setting killer picks. Maybe not an all star, but a solid starter that is a perfect compliment to Roy.

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