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Thread: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by Hollinger
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    Who were the other 13 top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Fred Jones, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
    We get it John, you don't like Fred Jones. Sheesh.




    One thing about regression that I can tell you from lots of stat experience, they all run the risk of training too hard to the training set, looking good when you test against that same set, and then failing horribly when applied to new data because they have specifically dialed in whatever quirks were in that training set.

    For a typical AI program I would work on, you first split your data into training and testing and don't mix them. But often, as in this case, you don't have enough data to afford this luxury. So you are basically validating against your own training, the one thing the regression shouldn't fail.


    Simple example - I train a visual inspection system to identify great art. All I have are 4 Da Vinci's. I then test it on the Mona Lisa and it is correctly spotted as great art. Then I use my own painting and it's shown as bad art.

    Then I pull out a brilliant Picasso and the system says "fail". What did I do wrong? I trained it to find Da Vinci, not great art.


    I admire the heck out of what Hollinger is trying to do for the NBA, I really do. But I also used to have a system that never missed on predicting the Best Picture Oscar, and I mean over 18 years of back testing. It even had the close races with closer scores. Then it missed 3 years in a row and I gave it up as a dud.

    It knew my training set (the past winners) but what I put into it as key items and how it weighted those key items were both flawed overall. It went off in a new tangent because of this.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    I do like that he has age as a consideration. I have to concede that some of what looks good about TWill and Sam Young, and AJ Price to an extent, is their mature awareness vs other college players. They know the game more, they handle the college game emotions better, but that doesn't mean they'll have that advantage at the next level. In fact you assume they will totally lose it among other very mature players with lots of pro experience.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    The problem with that is if we trade Ford it's because we can get someone in the draft, and Portland won't be under the cap until the new season starts.

    I guess we could agree to a trade during the draft and do it later.
    I could see us doing a deal with them since we now have a history and they're looking to be active, as always.

    But, if they're not under the cap until next season, how could they be going after signing Hedo? Is "next season" July 1? Because if so, we could agree, but the trade wouldn't be official for a week. Excuse me for being too lazy to look it up and figure it out for myself... Anyone know for sure?

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by ESutt7 View Post
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    I could see us doing a deal with them since we now have a history and they're looking to be active, as always.

    But, if they're not under the cap until next season, how could they be going after signing Hedo? Is "next season" July 1? Because if so, we could agree, but the trade wouldn't be official for a week. Excuse me for being too lazy to look it up and figure it out for myself... Anyone know for sure?
    Yes, you can agree to a trade, and execute it at a later date. This is exactly what happened with both the Toronto and Portland trades last year. They were agreed to before/during the draft, but didn't become official until after July 9.

    July 1, or a date shortly thereafter will mark "next season."

    (I would guess Portland will not be signing Hedo. They probably don't have enough space under the cap, unless they cut Blake and/or Outlaw.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    Yes, you can agree to a trade, and execute it at a later date. This is exactly what happened with both the Toronto and Portland trades last year. They were agreed to before/during the draft, but didn't become official until after July 9.

    July 1, or a date shortly thereafter will mark "next season."

    (I would guess Portland will not be signing Hedo. They probably don't have enough space under the cap, unless they cut Blake and/or Outlaw.
    So then, would a deal like TJ Ford for Outlaw or Webster and #24 (or a 2nd rounder since they have 4) work with the cap situation? Can they absorb that much? Thanks so much for being a cap expert!

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by ESutt7 View Post
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    So then, would a deal like TJ Ford for Outlaw or Webster and #24 (or a 2nd rounder since they have 4) work with the cap situation? Can they absorb that much? Thanks so much for being a cap expert!
    Yes, that deal could work under the cap rules, but I'm not entirely sure they'd want to use their cap space that way.

    (BTW...that deal would create a TE for the Pacers for between roughly $4-5mm.)

    Again, I would not think Portland would be interested in such a deal, and if they were, I think we might be more interested in Blake (depending on who we draft).

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Bump.

    Interesting to see how Hollinger's rankings have held up a year in. Lawson, Evans and Curry all in the top-five looks great (and I suspect Griffin would as well), and Blair at seven looks good. His biggest miss seems to be Collison at #18.
    Last edited by Lance George; 05-21-2010 at 11:53 AM.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Interesting catch, thx .
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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Definately an intersting read given what we know now.

    Reading the part about Lawson just makes me sad. I wanted Ty Lawson from the beginning. A trio of Hibbert/Lawson/Granger would have been amazing to watch.

    I wonder what John Hollinger's Draft rater has to say about this years draft.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by thewholefnshow31 View Post
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    Definately an intersting read given what we know now.

    Reading the part about Lawson just makes me sad. I wanted Ty Lawson from the beginning. A trio of Hibbert/Lawson/Granger would have been amazing to watch.

    I wonder what John Hollinger's Draft rater has to say about this years draft.
    Player School Draft Rater
    1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
    2. Blake Griffin Oklahoma 16.21
    3. Tyreke Evans Memphis 15.02
    4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
    5. Stephen Curry Davidson 14.18
    6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
    7. DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 13.56
    8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28
    9. Jonny Flynn Syracuse 12.99
    10. James Harden Arizona St. 12.97
    11. Hasheem Thabeet Connecticut 12.90
    12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88
    13. Jrue Holiday UCLA 12.73
    14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50
    15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17
    16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
    17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83
    18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
    19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
    20. Leo Lyons Missouri 11.53
    21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35
    22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
    23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18
    24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11
    25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04
    26. Jordan Hill Arizona 10.97
    28. B.J. Mullens Ohio State 10.81
    30. James Johnson Wake Forest 10.63
    31. Chase Budinger Arizona 10.51
    45. Derrick Brown Xavier 9.55
    48. DaJuan Summers Georgetown 9.38
    51. Jodie Meeks Kentucky 9.35
    52. Sam Young Pitt 9.34
    54. DeMar DeRozan USC 9.26
    62. Toney Douglas Florida St. 8.56
    68. Patrick Mills St. Mary's 8.36
    83. Jack McClinton Miami 6.64
    Found them on a message board.


    Hollingers Woo-Doo ratings

    1 DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky 16.14
    2. Evan Turner Ohio State 14.79
    3. John Wall Kentucky 14.68
    4. Greg Monroe Georgetown 14.39
    5. Derrick Favors Georgia Tech 13.98
    6. Xavier Henry Kansas 13.52
    7. Luke Babbitt Nevada 13.35
    8. Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest 13.30
    9. Wes Johnson Syracuse 13.03
    10. Greivis Vasquez Maryland 12.97
    11. Sylven Landesberg Virginia 12.52
    12. Omar Samhan Saint Mary's 12.47

    13. Damion James Texas 12.44
    14. Daniel Orton Kentucky 12.15
    15. James Anderson Oklahoma State 11.98
    16. Paul George Fresno State 11.87
    17. Gordon Hayward Butler 11.87
    18. Manny Harris Michigan 11.80
    19. Jeff Foote Cornell 11.71
    20. Darington Hobson New Mexico 11.69
    21. Eric Bledsoe Kentucky 11.66
    22. Marqus Blakely Vermont 11.58
    23. Luke Harangody Notre Dame 11.37
    24. Jordan Crawford Xavier 11.32

    25. Da'Sean Butler West Virginia 11.26
    26. Jon Scheyer Duke 11.20
    27. Devin Ebanks West Virginia 11.16
    28. Tiny Gallon Oklahoma 11.13
    29. Quincy Pondexter Washington 11.08
    30. Larry Sanders VCU 11.07
    31. Armon Johnson Nevada 10.98
    32. Brian Zoubek Duke 10.96
    33. Aubrey Coleman Houston 10.91
    34. Jeremy Lin Harvard 10.87
    35. Mikhail Torrance Alabama 10.84

    36 Cole Aldrich Kansas 10.83
    37 Patrick Patterson Kentucky 10.79
    40 Willie Warren Oklahoma 10.71
    45 Avery Bradley Texas 10.42
    50 Ekpe Udoh Baylor 10.03
    54 Ed Davis North Carolina 9.88
    60 Terrico White Mississippi 9.68
    62 Hassan Whiteside Marshall 9.65
    65 Craig Brackins Iowa State 9.56
    68 Solomon Alabi Florida State 9.52

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Aldrich, Patterson, Warren, Ed Davis and Udoh... Wow.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    There was a separate thread made for Hollinger's 2010 Draft Rater.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    WOW! Indeed!
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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    I do like that he has age as a consideration. I have to concede that some of what looks good about TWill and Sam Young, and AJ Price to an extent, is their mature awareness vs other college players. They know the game more, they handle the college game emotions better, but that doesn't mean they'll have that advantage at the next level. In fact you assume they will totally lose it among other very mature players with lots of pro experience.
    Something else to consider, there is no guarantee a player developes those "maturing" emotions.

    We know TWill, Sam Young, and AJ Price have learned the game, understand the game and know how to play..and everything else that comes with experience.

    All you have to do is look at Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson to realize that just because you are an upper classmen, it does not mean you actually have all the intangibles that come with being "experienced." There's only an advantage of being experienced if you are capable of developing those emotions.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by Sookie View Post
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    Something else to consider, there is no guarantee a player developes those "maturing" emotions.

    We know TWill, Sam Young, and AJ Price have learned the game, understand the game and know how to play..and everything else that comes with experience.

    All you have to do is look at Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson to realize that just because you are an upper classmen, it does not mean you actually have all the intangibles that come with being "experienced." There's only an advantage of being experienced if you are capable of developing those emotions.
    I totally agree about the "bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush" when it comes to a player that has proven something, be it maturity, shooting, whatever.

    I feel very good about promoting TWill, Young and Price as picks, certainly better than Hollinger's system suggested they would pan out.

    In fact here's the ones I think he missed badly on.

    Way too high, just silly. Lawson has panned out okay, but he's not only not better than Evans or Curry, he's not in the same ballpark so far.
    1. Ty Lawson North Carolina 16.34
    4. Austin Daye Gonzaga 14.24
    6. Nick Calathes Florida 13.66
    8. Danny Green North Carolina 13.28

    Considered good at this spot, but I questioned his awareness, he was half the impact player TWill was for L'ville
    12. Earl Clark Louisville 12.88

    Teague was not ready and showed an immature game for a PG
    14. Jeff Teague Wake Forest 12.50

    This is a technicality one, not just because I like Henderson as a prospect but because so far we just don't know if this is a bust or a Larry Brown bust
    15. Gerald Henderson Duke 12.17

    Yikes...
    16. Paul Delaney UAB 11.85
    17. Aaron Jackson Duquesne 11.83

    These guys lower than all those guys above? Collison I think comes back to earth in the long run, but still. At worst these guys are rated close to correct but well above the guys listed above them.
    18. Darren Collison UCLA 11.80
    19. Terrence Williams Louisville 11.80
    21. Eric Maynor VCU 11.35

    Yikes again.
    22. John Bryant Santa Clara 11.30
    23. DeMarre Carroll Missouri 11.18

    See Henderson, this is where I would rate Tyler and where he tracked, but at this point we just don't know
    24. Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 11.11

    Good gravy
    25. Wayne Ellington North Carolina 11.04

    Epic fail, though apparently some GM's listen to Hollinger way too much. Annoys me because I rated them much higher so I don't think their ability was hidden or a surprise
    31. Chase Budinger Arizona 10.51
    52. Sam Young Pitt 9.34

    This might actually be one of his better ratings, but it sure does stand out that he had a lottery guy rated this low. DeRozen has played and while not a star and not one a prospect I liked much, he's not "out of the NBA, late 2nd round" bad by any stretch.
    54. DeMar DeRozan USC 9.26

    No info on him yet, but he was deservedly IMO rated much higher than this. His injury has kept us from finding out yet.
    68. Patrick Mills St. Mary's 8.36


    So I'd say he was pretty off on about 30% of his ratings at least, and given that the mock drafts were probably in the same level of success and that my "I just watched them" amateur effort probably was too, I don't think he's anywhere close to finding the magic formula.

    I agree with plenty of his rankings, last year and this, but I think he's probably got some huge misses in there too.

    Patterson and Udoh wipe the floor with Tiny Gallon. Gallon did have one really great game and it came against Udoh, though Udoh also had a good game. But do you really want a 300 lb 6'9" kid who gets less than 1 block per game over a kid getting 3.7 blocks and 2.7 assists that's an inch taller and 60 pounds lighter?

    Guys like Gani Lawal and Stan Robinson aren't even listed here? Um, sure.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Sookie, one thing we don't quite agree on is Robinson. I found his play to be pretty mature and I thought it was Dyson who caused the most immature havoc for UConn. Walker too, though he was far more reliable IMO.

    Robinson's kinda got a Ron Artest offense to him, sometimes some iffy shots but not horrible, and the rest of the time he's really helping you. He often would take charge in games, step up his effort and try to get things going.

    Dyson is explosive but he could really get out of control and keep the ball in his hands. They didn't really run good offense through Robinson except for when he'd set up an alley-oop with a good cut. Most of the time they'd go off the ranch even when he was trying to work a PnR with them to help out. IMO of course.

    I think Robinson and Cousins are going to be the two biggest surprises in the area of "I thought they had issues". I think both are already showing plenty of maturity. Cousins as the season went along, Robinson all season.

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    Default Re: Draft Rater: Prospects 1st to worst, by John Hollinger

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Sookie, one thing we don't quite agree on is Robinson. I found his play to be pretty mature and I thought it was Dyson who caused the most immature havoc for UConn. Walker too, though he was far more reliable IMO.

    Robinson's kinda got a Ron Artest offense to him, sometimes some iffy shots but not horrible, and the rest of the time he's really helping you. He often would take charge in games, step up his effort and try to get things going.

    Dyson is explosive but he could really get out of control and keep the ball in his hands. They didn't really run good offense through Robinson except for when he'd set up an alley-oop with a good cut. Most of the time they'd go off the ranch even when he was trying to work a PnR with them to help out. IMO of course.

    I think Robinson and Cousins are going to be the two biggest surprises in the area of "I thought they had issues". I think both are already showing plenty of maturity. Cousins as the season went along, Robinson all season.
    Stanley is a really good kid, and as some people say "you're kind of heartless if you don't root for him."

    Well, I root for him..but I'm also realistic.

    4 years in the program, and his senior season he was still asking Gavin Edwards (the kid who played 10 mpg his entire career until his senior season) where he was supposed to be on offense..and who he was supposed to cover on defense. (I'm sure part of that was his first three years AJ was literally pointing out where he needed to go almost every posession.) We didn't run any plays for him because that would involve him knowing the plays. (and let's be honest, it's not like Calhoun's plays are complicated)

    Problem with Robinson is he is SO athletic, that everyonce in a while, he makes a few moves that make you go "WOW" once or twice a game. And that's nice, but flash annoys me when there's a lack of substance.

    I will say though, in Robinson's defense, He was fantastic during Uconn's Final Four run, and had a tendency to play better with Dyson off the floor. But he always played like a lower classmen..a freshman..And perhaps he's better suited for the pro game. However, my prediction for Robinson is this: Whichever team is suckered into picking him, he'll show a few brilliant things throughout the course of the year. Probably carry a team to a win or two..fans excited. But he'll also have moments where he disappears. He'll do the same year two and year three..fans grow restless but still think "The kid has a ton of potential.." and he'll do the same year four and year five...because that's what Stanley is..a kid with amazing athleticism and a bit of basketball talent..but mentally, well..let's just put it this way..if people think Rush is inconsistent...

    Dyson, honestly he's a ball dominant shooting guard that can't shoot. He lived off of driving to the basket, except he wasn't all that confident in his knee, and Uconn didn't have any shooters. He's not a leader. He had potential defensively..but he had poor fundamentals (in fact, at the end of the day, that was both Dyson and Stick's problem..poor fundamentals overall) and his senior season, when he'd attempt to go for the steal and his man would drive past him, there was no Thabeet to block the incoming shot.

    It was actually funny, I thought Price did a lot for that team, but I had no idea. There were three players (Craig Austrie, Thabeet, and Gavin Edwards..two of which left, and one..career bench player) who didn't depend on AJ to: get them mentally involved in the game, get them physically involved in games, tell them where they need to be on offense, tell them where they need to be on defense, bail them out of tight spots in games, pump everyone up, calm everyone down, tie their shoes for them ect.. (he wasn't a point guard, he was a freaking babysitter.)

    So moral of the story, I hope the Pacer's aren't the suckers who end up with Robinson or Dyson (not that I think he'll make it in the league) Having Gavin Edwards for Summer league would be fine, he'll know the plays, try hard, won't make mistakes, and won't hog the ball. (also won't make the team..) I say that knowing I could be wrong with Robinson..but really, I doubt it. He's talanted, he just doesn't have "it" mentally.
    Last edited by Sookie; 05-21-2010 at 10:23 PM.

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