Back to the bluegrass state we go, with another visit to Louisville to breakdown the game of another member of Rick Pitino's highly regarded Cardinals: G/F Terrence Williams.
Williams is one of the more unique players in this draft, as he has unique strengths and an off beat style of play that makes him very appealing in some instances and for some talent evaluators. Conversely, he has enough clear weaknesses in his game that some other scouts will not be high on him. What Williams is, and is not, I think is clear to most people by now, the only question is is how highly do you value you his advantages, and how much do you mark him down for his weaknesses.
To me, Williams has 3 major strongpoints in how he plays the game: His ability to find the open man, his man to man defense, and his ability to be a major plus rebounder for his position. Let's discuss his pros in-depth for moving on to his lesser qualities, so we can determine just how highly to rate his assets, before we discuss how badly his downside will hurt him.
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His first and most obvious plus skill is his ability to pass the basketball. But just how good of a passer is he?
There are several ways to make a great pass.
1. Some players make great passes by driving the basketball into the teeth of the defense, being such an offensive threat to score that the defense collapses on you, enabling you to make a pass to a teammate to score more easily.
2. Some players can see cutters, and the reaction of their defenders, quicker than everyone else can. They simply "read" the defense better, and this enables them to make passes to open players before they are actually open, just as they come off a cut, or just as they open up to the ball after setting a screen.
3. Some players make great passes because they are set up to do so by the design of the play. They deliver the ball where they are told to, as they have many times in practice. They still need the physical capabilities of making a difficult or long or extremely accurate pass against pressure with no margin for error, but they aren't CREATING the situation themselves nor are they SEEING AND REACTING on the fly....they are just executing a designed, albeit difficult, play.
When you judge Terrence Williams passing abilities thru these prizms, they are still above average, but are not as impressive as you may have been led to believe, at least in my judgment.
Rarely do you see on film Williams really pressuring the defense with his dribble in a difficult situation, creating a scoring opportunity where none existed. Williams doesn't to me seem to have the prerequisite ballhandling skills to beat his own defender off the dribble easily enough to regularly gain an advantage with the bounce, which means he really can't be as creative as some others who play the position. This means Williams does not in my view possess the first quality of being a superior passer.
Now admittedly, in the rigid and structured Louisville offense, Williams wasn't SUPPOSED to drive and create, instead he was supposed to do exactly what he did do, which was execute the play called from the sideline. Still, I think it is relatively clear that Williams is not a guy who can break down a defender, get to the paint, and create a scoring chance for himself or someone else.
Louisville's offense was so complex and regimented in the half court that often their cutters were being told where to cut, instead of a true motion offense of reading the defense. Because of that, while I suspect Williams CAN indeed read the defense from a passers perspective and hit cutters extremely well, we cannot know that for sure. Williams recieved alot of help in the decision making department on who and where to pass from the very controlling and micromanaging Louisville coaching staff. Thus, the number 2 skill in determining his passing skill is still a mystery to me, although like I said my guess is that he is solid in this area.
The most extremely impressive thing about Williams passing skills were the mechanics of the passes themselves. Williams was extremely clever on film, very accurate, showed great form, exquisite touch, and particularly I thought was very impressive making difficult passes to cutters in traffic. Williams was great at throwing catchable passes in good areas to Louisville's young bigs, not throwing them passes at their feet or in positions where if they caught the ball they'd be in trouble.
Williams was great at not getting balls tipped when he passed, not being predictable, and he had a quick release when passing. Add the ability to pass from all differing angles and heights to all sorts of different players, and you at least see why he is so highly thought of as a playmaking wing.
So, while I do think his passing is overrated to a degree and was helped enormously by an offensive designed to make him more important than he would be in most other places, I still can easily rate him as above average as a passing wing player....I just can't rate him as "great" or even "very good".
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His second major skill has me much more excited than his first.
Williams to me looked like an extremely versatile and solid man to man defender. I think Williams can guard a variety of different type of wing players, from spot up shooters, to guys who run off screens, to players who try to drive, to still other wings who want to play in the low post. I think Williams rates above average against all those different types of opponents from a defensive perspective.
Williams has 2 particular defensive skills that particularly impress me on film, and I think they are better than any other player I've profiled this year so far: The ability/instinct/willingness to communicate defensively to his teammates, and his ability to close out from help positions back to his man to contest a jump shot strongly.
Communication is hard to see on film, so I don't want to overstate it here. But it appears to me that Williams was the de facto leader of Louisville's team defense, especially when they played their 2-3 zone. As an aside, WHY Louisville played so much zone when they had what looked to me to be a superior man to man defensive club is a mystery, especially in their tournament loss to Michigan State. In my view, playing so much zone in that particular matchup is why Louisville didn't advance past the Spartans, and it is a puzzle to me what Coach Pitino was thinking there.
Anyway, back to defensive communication.
Williams on film routinely turns and talks to his teammates in the zone, seemingly directing them as cutters changed positions and as the ball moved from side to side and from wing to baseline. Communication on defense is one of the most undertaught fundamentals in the game, and it appears to be one Williams has in spades.
To be fair, last year I saw some of the same things communication wise in Roy Hibbert, but in our uniquely designed (to put it in a kind way) team scheme, his communication skills didn't help us at all, as our defense shifting too much, too often, and too far, basically making us so spread out and frenzied that any "captaincy" from a defender was wasted.
But still, a player needs to talk on defense, and Williams can and will do that....he has been well taught in that area it appears.
Williams also stands out in defensive fundamentals like tracing the basketball, getting deflections, chucking cutters physically, and staying in front the dribbler, so he is a nicely well rounded defensive player.
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Thirdly, Williams is an extremely talented rebounding wing. It isn't because he is a great leaper, though he is. And it isn't because he plays poor defense and "hunts" rebounds, it's that he seems to read the ball out of the shooters hand well, and gets to spots where the ball is likely to come down. He isn't a great old school, block my man out hard THEN chase the ball down kind of guy.....instead he reads where the ball is going and gets there first. On top of that, he gets his hands on the ball well, keeps things alive with tips when he can't get it himself, and in general is just aggressive and tough in traffic. He has the added bonus of being able to handle the ball some after he boards it, and I would assume he can make relatively good outlet passes although you don't see much of that on film.
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In summarizing his strengths, I'd say for his position Williams is a "plus" passer, "plus" defender, and a "plus plus" rebounder.
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The problem with Williams as I see it is his extreme limitations as an offensive player from the wing position. Basically, other than being a pretty good passer, Williams does NOTHING as an offensive player particularly well.
Is Williams a good cutter? Not really, and often he didn't move much without the ball at Louisville. He almost always recieved a pass early in a possession, playing a point forward type of role. When he did play off the ball some, I thought he stared at the ball and not his man too much, rounded off his cuts and taking extra steps to come around a screen.
Is Williams a good ballhandler? Not really, he dribbles high and carelessly, and lacked the blow by speed to make people pay for pressuring him.
Is Williams a good player to isolate 1 on 1? Not really, he lacks the sophisticated ballhandling moves to beat a good defender, and while strong enough he seems to miss too many shots in traffic that typical NBA players at his size and position make. His ability to pull up and make the mid range jumper is terrible in the games I saw, as Williams missed a ton of pull up jumpers he took off the dribble. He didn't look that bad taking them, but when your shot consistently doesn't go in, then it should tell you something.
Is Williams a good shooter off screens or spotting up? Not really, his form is fairly poor and he lacks NBA range I think. Pitino played to his strengths well by not asking him to do these things much.
Is Williams a good finisher on the break? Can't really tell, as Louisville didn't run nearly as much as you would think. He would seem to have the physical capabilities, but you'll see Williams trailing plays a bit more than a natural type of finisher would.
Like Gerald Henderson, Williams looks a lot better going to his right than his left I thought. Unlike Henderson however (who operated all over the floor in Duke's offense) Williams it seems to me was often put on the left side of the floor by design. This enabled him to "maximize" his abilities by at least sending his drive to the middle of the floor, giving him some room to manuever at least.
Also unlike Henderson, Williams limitations as a driver mean he lacks any real ability to get to the foul line. He can't get by you, he can't finish thru you or over you by pulling up, so defenders smartly just mostly let Williams shoot. More often than not he was looking to pass anyway, but when he did shoot he often threw up bricks.
Williams at the NBA level will definitely be a player other teams back off of and abandon on the perimeter to double team someone better. Williams has alot of room to go I think to even be an average NBA offensive player, and he will likely always be an offensively challenged wing player. Even his one offensive strength (his ability to pass to open cutters and to the post) is mitigated by his pure lack of talent on the "money" end of the floor.
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So where does that put Williams in terms of the draft 10 days from now?
Like most players in this draft, it is critical for Williams to be placed on the right team in order to be successful. If he isn't, I think the Louisville swingman might end up being a player who is out of the league by his rookie contract.
To me, Williams makes the most sense to a team with a really good post game, as he will be able to feed the post from the wing at a level higher than most will. Also, for a team with a scoring point guard Williams makes a little sense in a limited way since he would somewhat enable you to play this point guard off the ball occasionally.
Williams also needs to go to a team that puts a premium of wing defense, because that is where his value is. Ideally, a team who has a great scorer on one wing might be able to get away with Williams on the other at times.
To me, Williams could be a very valuable role player off the bench, and I think that is likely his top end as an NBA player.
The single best fit in the league I think is San Antonio, as an heir apparent for Bruce Bowen, but the Spurs don't have a pick as of yet near the range where I think Williams can go. Dallas and Oklahoma City are 2 other teams I think would be great places for Williams to land.
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Would/Could/Should the Pacers consider Williams at #13?
Not in my opinion. Larry Bird has shown a clear tendency to value shooting and scoring ability from his wings as he builds a team. He traded for Chris Mullin, revived Jalen Rose, traded for Mike Dunleavy, drafted Danny Granger, and made a move for Brandon Rush. While Granger and Rush are somewhat more well rounded players, clearly the first 3 on that list were offensive specialists. The idea that Larry will draft a poor offensive wing defensive specialist at #13, with the wings already being our position of strength AND the easiest position in basketball to fill I think is very very doubtful.
I'd be shocked if the Pacers are even seriously considering Williams at #13. In my opinion, Williams has almost no chance of being an Indiana Pacer on draft night, although I have definitely been wrong before.
My own personal feelings are that we need a wing defender as good as Williams can be, but that we can probably obtain a player like this in a cheaper way thru free agency or in the second round if we want one, which I personally do. I don't hate Williams, but I just don't think he projects to be all that good. He really really needs to get at least one really strong NBA scoring skill, much like Bruce Bowen finally developed when he began to be able to hit the corner 3 point shot for the Spurs.
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NBA current comparable: Greg Buckner
I can't think of a great past NBA comparable....I'm hoping some of you can help me out with one.
I'm aware that this particular profile will have some disagreement on this board, and that is ok. I hope this profile can create some excellent discussion and feedback on the uniquely talented but limited Louisville swingman prospect.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
Williams is one of the more unique players in this draft, as he has unique strengths and an off beat style of play that makes him very appealing in some instances and for some talent evaluators. Conversely, he has enough clear weaknesses in his game that some other scouts will not be high on him. What Williams is, and is not, I think is clear to most people by now, the only question is is how highly do you value you his advantages, and how much do you mark him down for his weaknesses.
To me, Williams has 3 major strongpoints in how he plays the game: His ability to find the open man, his man to man defense, and his ability to be a major plus rebounder for his position. Let's discuss his pros in-depth for moving on to his lesser qualities, so we can determine just how highly to rate his assets, before we discuss how badly his downside will hurt him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
His first and most obvious plus skill is his ability to pass the basketball. But just how good of a passer is he?
There are several ways to make a great pass.
1. Some players make great passes by driving the basketball into the teeth of the defense, being such an offensive threat to score that the defense collapses on you, enabling you to make a pass to a teammate to score more easily.
2. Some players can see cutters, and the reaction of their defenders, quicker than everyone else can. They simply "read" the defense better, and this enables them to make passes to open players before they are actually open, just as they come off a cut, or just as they open up to the ball after setting a screen.
3. Some players make great passes because they are set up to do so by the design of the play. They deliver the ball where they are told to, as they have many times in practice. They still need the physical capabilities of making a difficult or long or extremely accurate pass against pressure with no margin for error, but they aren't CREATING the situation themselves nor are they SEEING AND REACTING on the fly....they are just executing a designed, albeit difficult, play.
When you judge Terrence Williams passing abilities thru these prizms, they are still above average, but are not as impressive as you may have been led to believe, at least in my judgment.
Rarely do you see on film Williams really pressuring the defense with his dribble in a difficult situation, creating a scoring opportunity where none existed. Williams doesn't to me seem to have the prerequisite ballhandling skills to beat his own defender off the dribble easily enough to regularly gain an advantage with the bounce, which means he really can't be as creative as some others who play the position. This means Williams does not in my view possess the first quality of being a superior passer.
Now admittedly, in the rigid and structured Louisville offense, Williams wasn't SUPPOSED to drive and create, instead he was supposed to do exactly what he did do, which was execute the play called from the sideline. Still, I think it is relatively clear that Williams is not a guy who can break down a defender, get to the paint, and create a scoring chance for himself or someone else.
Louisville's offense was so complex and regimented in the half court that often their cutters were being told where to cut, instead of a true motion offense of reading the defense. Because of that, while I suspect Williams CAN indeed read the defense from a passers perspective and hit cutters extremely well, we cannot know that for sure. Williams recieved alot of help in the decision making department on who and where to pass from the very controlling and micromanaging Louisville coaching staff. Thus, the number 2 skill in determining his passing skill is still a mystery to me, although like I said my guess is that he is solid in this area.
The most extremely impressive thing about Williams passing skills were the mechanics of the passes themselves. Williams was extremely clever on film, very accurate, showed great form, exquisite touch, and particularly I thought was very impressive making difficult passes to cutters in traffic. Williams was great at throwing catchable passes in good areas to Louisville's young bigs, not throwing them passes at their feet or in positions where if they caught the ball they'd be in trouble.
Williams was great at not getting balls tipped when he passed, not being predictable, and he had a quick release when passing. Add the ability to pass from all differing angles and heights to all sorts of different players, and you at least see why he is so highly thought of as a playmaking wing.
So, while I do think his passing is overrated to a degree and was helped enormously by an offensive designed to make him more important than he would be in most other places, I still can easily rate him as above average as a passing wing player....I just can't rate him as "great" or even "very good".
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His second major skill has me much more excited than his first.
Williams to me looked like an extremely versatile and solid man to man defender. I think Williams can guard a variety of different type of wing players, from spot up shooters, to guys who run off screens, to players who try to drive, to still other wings who want to play in the low post. I think Williams rates above average against all those different types of opponents from a defensive perspective.
Williams has 2 particular defensive skills that particularly impress me on film, and I think they are better than any other player I've profiled this year so far: The ability/instinct/willingness to communicate defensively to his teammates, and his ability to close out from help positions back to his man to contest a jump shot strongly.
Communication is hard to see on film, so I don't want to overstate it here. But it appears to me that Williams was the de facto leader of Louisville's team defense, especially when they played their 2-3 zone. As an aside, WHY Louisville played so much zone when they had what looked to me to be a superior man to man defensive club is a mystery, especially in their tournament loss to Michigan State. In my view, playing so much zone in that particular matchup is why Louisville didn't advance past the Spartans, and it is a puzzle to me what Coach Pitino was thinking there.
Anyway, back to defensive communication.
Williams on film routinely turns and talks to his teammates in the zone, seemingly directing them as cutters changed positions and as the ball moved from side to side and from wing to baseline. Communication on defense is one of the most undertaught fundamentals in the game, and it appears to be one Williams has in spades.
To be fair, last year I saw some of the same things communication wise in Roy Hibbert, but in our uniquely designed (to put it in a kind way) team scheme, his communication skills didn't help us at all, as our defense shifting too much, too often, and too far, basically making us so spread out and frenzied that any "captaincy" from a defender was wasted.
But still, a player needs to talk on defense, and Williams can and will do that....he has been well taught in that area it appears.
Williams also stands out in defensive fundamentals like tracing the basketball, getting deflections, chucking cutters physically, and staying in front the dribbler, so he is a nicely well rounded defensive player.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Thirdly, Williams is an extremely talented rebounding wing. It isn't because he is a great leaper, though he is. And it isn't because he plays poor defense and "hunts" rebounds, it's that he seems to read the ball out of the shooters hand well, and gets to spots where the ball is likely to come down. He isn't a great old school, block my man out hard THEN chase the ball down kind of guy.....instead he reads where the ball is going and gets there first. On top of that, he gets his hands on the ball well, keeps things alive with tips when he can't get it himself, and in general is just aggressive and tough in traffic. He has the added bonus of being able to handle the ball some after he boards it, and I would assume he can make relatively good outlet passes although you don't see much of that on film.
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In summarizing his strengths, I'd say for his position Williams is a "plus" passer, "plus" defender, and a "plus plus" rebounder.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The problem with Williams as I see it is his extreme limitations as an offensive player from the wing position. Basically, other than being a pretty good passer, Williams does NOTHING as an offensive player particularly well.
Is Williams a good cutter? Not really, and often he didn't move much without the ball at Louisville. He almost always recieved a pass early in a possession, playing a point forward type of role. When he did play off the ball some, I thought he stared at the ball and not his man too much, rounded off his cuts and taking extra steps to come around a screen.
Is Williams a good ballhandler? Not really, he dribbles high and carelessly, and lacked the blow by speed to make people pay for pressuring him.
Is Williams a good player to isolate 1 on 1? Not really, he lacks the sophisticated ballhandling moves to beat a good defender, and while strong enough he seems to miss too many shots in traffic that typical NBA players at his size and position make. His ability to pull up and make the mid range jumper is terrible in the games I saw, as Williams missed a ton of pull up jumpers he took off the dribble. He didn't look that bad taking them, but when your shot consistently doesn't go in, then it should tell you something.
Is Williams a good shooter off screens or spotting up? Not really, his form is fairly poor and he lacks NBA range I think. Pitino played to his strengths well by not asking him to do these things much.
Is Williams a good finisher on the break? Can't really tell, as Louisville didn't run nearly as much as you would think. He would seem to have the physical capabilities, but you'll see Williams trailing plays a bit more than a natural type of finisher would.
Like Gerald Henderson, Williams looks a lot better going to his right than his left I thought. Unlike Henderson however (who operated all over the floor in Duke's offense) Williams it seems to me was often put on the left side of the floor by design. This enabled him to "maximize" his abilities by at least sending his drive to the middle of the floor, giving him some room to manuever at least.
Also unlike Henderson, Williams limitations as a driver mean he lacks any real ability to get to the foul line. He can't get by you, he can't finish thru you or over you by pulling up, so defenders smartly just mostly let Williams shoot. More often than not he was looking to pass anyway, but when he did shoot he often threw up bricks.
Williams at the NBA level will definitely be a player other teams back off of and abandon on the perimeter to double team someone better. Williams has alot of room to go I think to even be an average NBA offensive player, and he will likely always be an offensively challenged wing player. Even his one offensive strength (his ability to pass to open cutters and to the post) is mitigated by his pure lack of talent on the "money" end of the floor.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
So where does that put Williams in terms of the draft 10 days from now?
Like most players in this draft, it is critical for Williams to be placed on the right team in order to be successful. If he isn't, I think the Louisville swingman might end up being a player who is out of the league by his rookie contract.
To me, Williams makes the most sense to a team with a really good post game, as he will be able to feed the post from the wing at a level higher than most will. Also, for a team with a scoring point guard Williams makes a little sense in a limited way since he would somewhat enable you to play this point guard off the ball occasionally.
Williams also needs to go to a team that puts a premium of wing defense, because that is where his value is. Ideally, a team who has a great scorer on one wing might be able to get away with Williams on the other at times.
To me, Williams could be a very valuable role player off the bench, and I think that is likely his top end as an NBA player.
The single best fit in the league I think is San Antonio, as an heir apparent for Bruce Bowen, but the Spurs don't have a pick as of yet near the range where I think Williams can go. Dallas and Oklahoma City are 2 other teams I think would be great places for Williams to land.
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Would/Could/Should the Pacers consider Williams at #13?
Not in my opinion. Larry Bird has shown a clear tendency to value shooting and scoring ability from his wings as he builds a team. He traded for Chris Mullin, revived Jalen Rose, traded for Mike Dunleavy, drafted Danny Granger, and made a move for Brandon Rush. While Granger and Rush are somewhat more well rounded players, clearly the first 3 on that list were offensive specialists. The idea that Larry will draft a poor offensive wing defensive specialist at #13, with the wings already being our position of strength AND the easiest position in basketball to fill I think is very very doubtful.
I'd be shocked if the Pacers are even seriously considering Williams at #13. In my opinion, Williams has almost no chance of being an Indiana Pacer on draft night, although I have definitely been wrong before.
My own personal feelings are that we need a wing defender as good as Williams can be, but that we can probably obtain a player like this in a cheaper way thru free agency or in the second round if we want one, which I personally do. I don't hate Williams, but I just don't think he projects to be all that good. He really really needs to get at least one really strong NBA scoring skill, much like Bruce Bowen finally developed when he began to be able to hit the corner 3 point shot for the Spurs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA current comparable: Greg Buckner
I can't think of a great past NBA comparable....I'm hoping some of you can help me out with one.
I'm aware that this particular profile will have some disagreement on this board, and that is ok. I hope this profile can create some excellent discussion and feedback on the uniquely talented but limited Louisville swingman prospect.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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