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Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

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  • #1

    Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

    Today I put the powerful forward from Pittsburgh, DeJuan Blair, under the Tbird microscope. This is the 4th analysis of this 2009 draft series, the first three were PG Ty Lawson, SG Gerald Henderson, and PG Jrue Holiday. You can find those profiles elsewhere on this site if you are interested.

    Blair is the favored selection of the Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz, and a preferred selection of many of you as well I am sure. Blair had a very nice season playing for Jamie Dixon and the Pittsburgh Panthers, and because of the exposure of the Big East and the highly rated matchups Pitt played in all season long, Blair has been one of the most watched players available in this draft by the viewing public.

    Like most players, Blair has his strengths and weaknesses as a player. This thread will hopefully end up being a good discussion avenue of the advantages and disadvantages to having him on your roster, and how, if selected by the Pacers, how he could fit it.

    Let's go with his biggest positive attribute first, which is clearly evident.

    Let us all go ahead and say the obvious: Blair is an absolute MAN, a beast, a stud, a force, or whatever adjective you want to use as a rebounder. He has the single best attribute I as a fan or coach can give to a player as a rebounder: He is RELENTLESS. He adds toughness, attitude, and a physical power to a team whenever he takes the floor.
    Blair is a rebounding *** kicker, an intimidator at the college level, as many guys he played against wanted no part of him. Just ask Hasheem Tabeet, who Blair WWE slammed to the floor in a game during the Big East conference season during a loose ball scrum. I remember smiling broadly when I saw that play live, and I smiled again when I watched it on film while preparing this review. Blair's style harkens back to a bygone era, where real men stalked the painted area...guys like Charles Oakley, Rick Mahorn, and other enforcers of a past time. I like Blair if for no other reason that he lets me remember time in NBA basketball that I really enjoyed.

    But that was then, and this is now. Now we are in the era where physical play is frowned upon, and the old time unskilled enforcers are no longer walking the earth in baggy shorts and tank tops. Blair would have easily fit into the culture of the league a few years ago, but now is a different time. Can he still be a useful player in this more finesse type of game?

    I certainly hope he can, because you can tell that I really enjoyed watching him play.....and indeed I think he can be a role player on most teams and play some regular minutes in the league. He will be a fan favorite where he ends up I think, and his teammates will likely really be glad he is with them instead of against them.

    I think it is obvious that a player with such a dominating singular skill can play in the league for a long time. But does he have any real upside, any chance to become something more than what he appears to be?

    Looking at his offensive game, it doesn't appear so at this time. he clearly will have some developing to do at the NBA level. You can't blame him for not developing a mid range jumper in college...drifting outside then would have been stupid, when he could just overpower people under the rim at that level. But in the NBA he won't have such a strength advantage every night (although he will sometimes), so he will have to be able to stick a face up 10-15 foot baseline jumper from time to time I think to be at maximum effectiveness. Right now he can't make that shot, we will see if he can develop it.

    Blair is too heavy and too short, we all know that, to be considered an "elite" player. But his limitations have also helped him develop his game to a degree. When you can't jump, you have to develop good footwork to get position and leverage, and Blair does have nimble feet inside while posting. He lacks moves once he actually gets the ball of course, but in college he had such deep position it made no difference. Watch Blair's feet against taller guys and you'll notice that he does a very nice job of driving one of his feet between the feet of his defender while posting up, then driving that leg back into his man, which creates one of 2 scenarios: either his man gives ground, or his man takes a shot to the groin or midsection. Trust me, most defenders back up! Blair gets big props from me for very good footwork inside. At 6'11 or so he'd be unstoppable, but at 6'5 or 6'6 his height is a big hindrance to being a reliable post scorer at this level, and that is an issue that is uncoachable.

    Blair is a very nice screener, and really seems to relish the role of screening, which I enjoyed watching on film. He really clobbers people with his size, causing many defenders to want to avoid him altogether, meaning guys on Pittsburgh and more room to get shots off when coming off a Blair screen. He moves some while screening, and occasionally he will deliver a forearm shiver to people as they pass by, possibly just for his own amusement. He will need to tone it down in the NBA game, because the dirtly little secret to college basketball is thta is actually more physical than the NBA. Blair will be a very effective baseline screener for a team that plays alot of offense that way.

    Can you post up Blair as a primary option? Not at all, nor can he really be an effective player out of a ballscreen situation. Most NBA teams will just trap the ballhandler when he is in a ballscreen play with someone and dare the player with the ball to feed it back to Blair. Blair can't handle the ball, nor would you want him to really, so he isnt going to drive and create anything. A very clever coach will still be able to build offense with Blair in the game though....the easiest idea to use a guy like Blair is to havign him ballscreen for someone at the top, and then when his man leaves to trap the ball, instead of having Blair pop back or roll to the bucket, instead have him SCREEN DOWN AGAIN for another player who CAN score to come up and recieve a pass. This using of Blair as a screener 2 different times gets him closer to the bucket to offensive rebound and creates a situation where there is no help defender available to help on Blair's screen the second time.....smart coaches like Larry Brown, Jerry Sloan, Rick Carlisle, Greg Popovich, and others who already play half court basketball alot will be able to use Blair offensively more than other teams will.

    Blair will need to improve his ability to pass as well. He particularly needs to learn to make the very accurate 2 handed overhead outlet pass. He needs that because he needs to be able to rebound and start fast breaks, instead of just holding it like he does now most of the time. He will also need to do that after he gets offensive rebounds, because even though I think he will be very good at GETTING offensive rebounds, I don't think he will be able to FINISH them all that often. Plus, the game is evolving in such a way that most teams want you to throw the ball backout to spotted up shooters in those cases anyway. Blair will give you extra possessions, just not extra POINTS necessarily, that will be up to others on his team.

    Defensively, there will be some teams that he can match up with, but he will be a liabilty in todays more perimeter, more free flowing NBA. Blair would be useless against a team like Orlando for instance,as he would have no ability to cover the perimeter 4's the league has today. His other defensive attribute of delivering physical pain to cutters that cross his face will be called fouls in today's league....where 20 years ago they would have been ignored.

    Blair will struggle big time in screen/roll situations defensively. He is a bit slow and crosses his feet when trying to slide them, and he will have a tough time staying in front of even average speed guards. His lack of closeout ability and conditioning means he will struggle to recover back to his man if he pops to the perimeter for jumpers as well. As long armed as Blair is, he isnt really projecting to be a big NBA shotblocker, and he plays with his arms down when contesting shots too often....add that to his lack of leaping ability and elite conditioning, and he is going to struggle defensively all over the floor, unless he is guarding a player trying to post him and play with his back to the basket. And even those type players will be able to launch over him. Blair will be a defensive liability, not because of effort exactly but just because of his limitations.

    Blair projects as the 4th big man in a big man rotation, capable of playing 15 to 20 minutes a night on average for a team that values his skillset and that plays a style where he can help them.

    I want to say that Blair would be a good fit in Indiana, since so many people I know like him and since I myself enjoy his tough guy image and bad *** attitude. Unfortunately, I cannot. In fact, i think Blair is one of the worst fits for the Pacers current style in the entire draft, and Ill be shocked beyond belief if they take him and keep him.

    Blair is a bad "fit" with us because his weaknesses hurt us more than his strengths help us. What we need in a big man I think, more than anything Blair can give us, would be one of two types of players:

    1. A bigger guy with enough athleticism to guard and shut down more perimeter oriented bigs....someone who can drift between playing the wing and the low post depending on matchups. Not a star, but someone who can help us in many different ways.

    2. And we also need, probably even more than the above, a big player who can play with EITHER Murphy or Hibbert, so we can use Foster as our 4th big man, and McRoberts as our 5th. We already know that Hibbert/Foster isn't a good defensive combination, so we need someone who can compliment both players, so we can avoid those 2 playing together so much. In a "perfect" world, we'd draft a player who can start over either of those guys and help us....basically, we need today's version of Dale Davis...and that player isn't in this draft.


    I'm not sure exactly who I think will draft Blair, but I'm almost positive it won't be Indiana. I can however see a team trading UP to get Blair to around Indiana's selection, as he is the only player in the draft who plays like he does...Blair's "uniqueness" and fan appeal will make him a draft day target of someone's front office.

    I've heard New Jersey as a destination for Blair, but I think he would fit terribly in their current "dribble drive motion" offense. I think he gets past the Nets. I can see Charlotte picking him to use as a screener and role player, but who would he be screening for? Plus, I think they need a scorer more than Blair at this point.....but I can still see him landing there despite the fact I think they will take Henderson instead. I can see Milwaukee and Scott Skiles valuing Blair the most, along with Chicago. I'll go out on a small limb and say the Bucks and Bulls are his most likely destinations, although if he gets past 16 its anyone's guess.

    NBA comparables are easy for Blair I think.

    Current day: Reggie Evans, F from the 76'ers.
    Past day: Tyrone Hill.

    Sepite the protests and criticisms likely to come from our local newspaper columnist, I predict the Pacers would/should pass on Blair, even if he is available when we select. I think he will have a long NBA career as a rebounder/tough guy specialist, but I think we need to go in another direction.

    As always, the above is just my opinion.

    Tbird
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

    Good post Tbird, yeah I agree with you, Blair would not fit as a pacers because he is not a offensive presence and for a team like the Pacers you need a big who can shoot the ball when he is not close to the basket, he is also a bit to small for a PF.
    @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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    • #3
      Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

      The size never worried me much, but the quickness did.

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      • #4
        Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

        Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
        Blair is a bad "fit" with us because his weaknesses hurt us more than his strengths help us. What we need in a big man I think, more than anything Blair can give us, would be one of two types of players:

        1. A bigger guy with enough athleticism to guard and shut down more perimeter oriented bigs....someone who can drift between playing the wing and the low post depending on matchups. Not a star, but someone who can help us in many different ways.

        2. And we also need, probably even more than the above, a big player who can play with EITHER Murphy or Hibbert, so we can use Foster as our 4th big man, and McRoberts as our 5th. We already know that Hibbert/Foster isn't a good defensive combination, so we need someone who can compliment both players, so we can avoid those 2 playing together so much. In a "perfect" world, we'd draft a player who can start over either of those guys and help us....basically, we need today's version of Dale Davis...and that player isn't in this draft.
        Thanks as always, Tbird. You're whetting my appetite for comments on Earl Clark (and his appropriateness for us). If only we could put Blair's brain into Clark's body ... . Is a 2nd-round pick worth a transplant??


        "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

        - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

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        • #5
          Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

          Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
          Blair is a bad "fit" with us because his weaknesses hurt us more than his strengths help us. What we need in a big man I think, more than anything Blair can give us, would be one of two types of players:

          1. A bigger guy with enough athleticism to guard and shut down more perimeter oriented bigs....someone who can drift between playing the wing and the low post depending on matchups. Not a star, but someone who can help us in many different ways.

          2. And we also need, probably even more than the above, a big player who can play with EITHER Murphy or Hibbert, so we can use Foster as our 4th big man, and McRoberts as our 5th. We already know that Hibbert/Foster isn't a good defensive combination, so we need someone who can compliment both players, so we can avoid those 2 playing together so much. In a "perfect" world, we'd draft a player who can start over either of those guys and help us....basically, we need today's version of Dale Davis...and that player isn't in this draft.
          This is something I've been thinking about lately now that the draft measurements have come out. I haven't watched the guy play much at all, but could Austin Daye come in and fill some of this role? He's no Dale Davis, that's for sure. I just think a 6'10" wing guy with a 7'2" wingspan would be able to bring something to the table at the PF spot on this team. He could possibly play a Rashard Lewis role for us while Hibbert is our main big down low. Looking at his draftexpress, he is actually a pretty good shot blocker and defensive rebounder while having the versatility to play on the wing.

          http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Austin-Daye-1316/

          The big thing with Daye seems to be his weight. He's so skinny it almost looks unhealthy. So I would imagine he would need to add 25-30 lbs before he could really contribute. Does he have the frame for that kind of weight gain? It would seem so, but who knows. We all saw how JO and Bender reacted to bulking up.

          Sorry to take this thread off topic. Hopefully someone who has seen Daye can shed some light on him though.

          BTW, I don't like the Blair pick either. While he is a superb rebounder, his other shortcomings outweigh his positives. Like tbird said, I don't think he fits with this team anyways. I honestly couldn't see Blair being able to get up and down the court like JOB wants his bigs to do. Hibbert is pretty slow as well, but there's a big difference in having 4 guys with the ability to play uptempo instead of 3, if that makes sense.\


          Daye video vs Arizona- He blocks Jordan Hills jumpshot twice. I really think he could be the versatile big we need as long as he added some weight.

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXd_vHAoXIM
          Last edited by Coop; 05-30-2009, 04:28 PM. Reason: Added video

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          • #6
            Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

            It is hard to run offense if can't rebound the ball. The more possesions the more offense.
            Blair is a very good rebounder and I believe would be a great complement to Hibbert
            in some ways. I would be concerned about the slowness of the defense with him but
            I believe he is quicker than people give him credit. On offense I think he and Hibbert
            present two very unique bigs with unique skills sets. Blair just adds something that is
            sorely lacking currently.
            {o,o}
            |)__)
            -"-"-

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            • #7
              Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

              I could see the Pacers possibly drafting Blair in certain hypothetical situations, but I think he will always be slightly disappointing to whomever drafts him because while he will play an important role for someone in this league, it won't be the role that most fans want or expect from a guy picked in the first half of the first round.

              I wouldn't mind trading one of the pint sized PG's up for Blair and something else because, well, assuming TJ is somewhat healthy, we already have one of those.

              When it comes to Blair vs. Gerald Henderson, who is my #1 guy right now if he is available, I would of course say Henderson in a heartbeat. When it comes to T-Will...I dunno, a lot of that depends on T-Will's character concerns. So much of the draft, at least for the Pacers, is based on intangibles which from a fan's perspective is so hard to read. Does T-Will have more potential than Blair to play an important role on an NBA team? Of course, but no one wants another Shawne Williams situation in Indianapolis.

              Blair is a good person, a hard worker, and has low absolute bust potential IMO so I think there is a chance the Pacers take a good look at him, especially at the possibility of trading later into the draft to pick him up. He may not fit the style we run right now but I firmly believe that it is the GM's job to draft players and the coach's job to make them work into the system. If a coach cannot do so than he does not have the talent to be an NBA coach.

              While I don't think Blair is the first choice of TPTB he along with Austin Daye is my "dark horse" candidate for Pacers pick this year.
              Last edited by idioteque; 05-30-2009, 04:31 PM.

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              • #8
                Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                I enjoy this series of posts for many reasons:
                • I do not follow college basketball, nor have I had any desire to do so since college. (Go Ball State)
                • Your analysis is based on observation and study mixed with basketball knowledge far surpassing mine.
                • You don't limit your reviews to pet players or favorites you think we should take.
                • Having read many of your posts, I find that if I don't agree with your point of view of what is happening on the court, I need to at least re-examine my point of view.
                • In educating myself before the draft on potential candidates, I read a lot of crap. The only reviews I would find more useful than yours would come from someone inside the team's front office... and they can't print those.

                Keep 'em coming, and thanks.

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                • #9
                  Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                  On top of his toughness and tenacity Blair has a great personality and work ethic. I think he could be a good player for us and I think I've made that clear over the past several weeks. Reading this does have me reconsidering the implications of a Hibbert/Blair frontcourt though. It might be just too slow defensively. I do think that they would compliment eachother well in other aspects. Hibbert is a decent shot blocker while Blair is not and Blair is a great rebounder which Hibbert is not.

                  Hibbert has been working on his base-line/elbow jumpers all summer so I am not too worried about that.

                  The one part I might disagree on is that I don't think we should avoid drafting him just because of the current system we run. Hibbert is probably more of a half court center anyways and who knows what type of offense we will run with our next coach.

                  Depending on who's there at 13, I would love to get Blair. I'm not one of those guys who thinks that every lottery pick needs to turn into a starter. I don't think many powerforwards that we could realistically get would start over Murphy because of his contract. In fact, I really care more about who finishes games rather than starts them..If Blair can be a rotational guy at around 25-30 minutes a night and make guards like Tony Parker think twice about driving into the lane, I'll be more than happy with him at 13.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                    Good read. I can see the Reggie Evans connection, though I'm surprised there was no comparison to Tractor Traylor.

                    My biggest problem with Blair, in terms of how he fits in with the Pacers, is that I feel opponents aren't afraid to attack the basket against him. Like you said, despite his length (and strength) he's a lazy defender, and I saw several teams attack him as if it were a part of the strategy.

                    I'm looking forward to some of the future reviews. In very limited action, I liked what I saw from J. Flynn, and of course, Terrence Williams.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                      I pose this question. Of all the players that might be there, including Blair, who do you think will help immediately and maybe into the future? I believe Blair would be the best
                      choice. As mentioned above he will not be a bust. He will help the Pacers.
                      With Hibbert being a pressure point on offense and his ability to pass, Blair on the other side of Hibbert would be the recipient of passes or Hibberts misses.
                      {o,o}
                      |)__)
                      -"-"-

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                        Originally posted by owl View Post
                        I pose this question. Of all the players that might be there, including Blair, who do you think will help immediately and maybe into the future? I believe Blair would be the best
                        choice. As mentioned above he will not be a bust. He will help the Pacers.
                        With Hibbert being a pressure point on offense and his ability to pass, Blair on the other side of Hibbert would be the recipient of passes or Hibberts misses.
                        I respectfully submit that I think I Wallace could be a perfect for us, in the role of a pre-injury Ben Wallace. I see us having a team full of shooters, with no one other than Foster to set the hard screens.

                        I think Blair would work simply because of our wealth of shooters. Blair is not a complete, finished product. Some players come out of college and you see there's not going to be much more to their game. I think his intelligence and work ethic, coupled with good coaching, can and will shore up hs defensive shortcomings. Same goes for a mid range game.

                        As a bit of an analogy, and I've mentioned this before, Jeff Foster had a nice midrange game in college. I even got to see him pla in person. When he got to the Pacers, we had a bunch of shooters and his role was reduced to screener, rebounder. As time went by, his shooting tuc atrophied. It was sad for me to see.

                        Instead of treating Blair like Jeff, I would hope that we'd help him to discover his mid-range game. Despite his footspeed, I think we have to grab him if he's available imho.
                        Hey! What're you kicking me for? You want me to ask? All right, I'll ask! Ma'am, where do the high school girls hang out in this town?

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                          Originally posted by Peskoe97 View Post



                          Depending on who's there at 13, I would love to get Blair. I'm not one of those guys who thinks that every lottery pick needs to turn into a starter. I don't think many powerforwards that we could realistically get would start over Murphy because of his contract. In fact, I really care more about who finishes games rather than starts them..If Blair can be a rotational guy at around 25-30 minutes a night and make guards like Tony Parker think twice about driving into the lane, I'll be more than happy with him at 13.




                          I agree with this and I would say this almost about anybody the pacers draft.
                          @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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                          • #14
                            Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                            Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
                            Blair is an absolute MAN, a beast, a stud, a force, or whatever adjective you want to use as a rebounder. He has the single best attribute I as a fan or coach can give to a player as a rebounder: He is RELENTLESS. He adds toughness, attitude, and a physical power to a team whenever he takes the floor.
                            Blair is a rebounding *** kicker, an intimidator at the college level, as many guys he played against wanted no part of him. [....] Blair's style harkens back to a bygone era, where real men stalked the painted area...
                            I stopped reading there. Let's take him.

                            I don't care if the next paragraph says he measured out at 5' 9" or he was caught eating dead puppies while high on his custom mix of paint thinner, baby seal blood, and Tabasco.
                            You're caught up in the Internet / you think it's such a great asset / but you're wrong, wrong, wrong
                            All that fiber optic gear / still cannot take away the fear / like an island song

                            - Jimmy Buffett

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #4: DeJaun Blair

                              OK. I read the rest of it. Dammit. Is it too much to ask for a BIG man than can both play defense against 4s and 5s AND rebound like a madman?
                              You're caught up in the Internet / you think it's such a great asset / but you're wrong, wrong, wrong
                              All that fiber optic gear / still cannot take away the fear / like an island song

                              - Jimmy Buffett

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