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Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

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  • #1

    Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

    I continue on with my draft analysis threads tonight with a thorough examination of the UCLA young combo guard, Jrue Holiday. My first two draft analysis threads featured PG Ty Lawson from North Carolina, and SG Gerald Henderson from Duke. Those who are interested in reading those can find them via this site from a few days ago.

    How well a team and its fans likes Holiday probably depends on your opinion of whether he can be a true NBA caliber starting point guard or not. Obviously, the value of a legitimate starter at a difficult to fill position is much higher than a "tweener" type of guard, which are much more common and easier to find. Holiday doesn't have the normal prerequisite size to be off the ball at the NBA level anyway, so it is probably point guard or bust for Holiday at the next level.

    Trying to make a determination abouth whether or not Holiday is a point guard truly by nature isn't an easy task, because he almost never played that position in his one year of college up to this point. As most of you probably know, Holiday played almost exclusively off the ball and out of position for the Bruins this year, as Head coach ben Howland opted to play big minutes to his senior defensive minded point guard Darren Collison.

    The Bruins offense is tough to watch on film. The play a slow pace in general anyway, and really lack alot of fluidity and motion in their overall team scheme in the halfcourt. The Bruins win with defense mostly, and in spite of their mind numbing at times half court attack. It's hard to tell whether the Bruins stand alot on offense because Collison over dribbled so much, or because Collison dribbled so much because his teammates didn't move....perhaps a little of both.

    Anyway, most of what a person thinks of Holiday is a projection into the future, because we haven't ever really got to see Jrue play his NBA position against any sort of tougher competition. This leaves a person to have to try to judge him in small bursts of plays, trying to read very fine nuances. It also brings a scouts personal biases and predilections into play, because their is so much open to interpretation. It is for this reason that I believe that there will be a wide variety of opinions on Holiday among teams, fans, draft "experts", and members of this very forum. With very little to go on in film that we have access to, it becomes a reading of tea leaves in many ways.

    Having said that, I definitely have my own strong opinions/beliefs about Holiday, and I will share them here.

    I do not like Holiday at all as a player for this draft, and I feel pretty strongly that he shouldn't be in it. Ultimately, I think he clearly should head back to school, play point guard full time for a season and prove himself. He has too many mysteries about him, and too many clear weaknesses in my opinion to merit being picked anywhere except the later stages of the first round, even though I know there are scouts out there who will have him projected in the top 10. Right now I do not see an NBA point guard when I watch him play.......and I suspect that Holiday will here that from enough teams that it will scare him enough to head back to school and try and improve his stock and try again.

    Don't get me wrong....I don't dislike Holiday forever as a player, it's just that to me here clearly isn't ready to play at this level yet...he is a project at best, needing much improvement in too many areas to be a factor in the league for at least a year, maybe more. I think Holiday has a chance to really develop and be a high quality player, but he clearly needs alot of seasoning, which he will not get nailed to an NBA bench.

    Let's start with his positives first, as we go in depth.

    As a defender, Holiday is both going be very well taught under Ben Howland, and well prepared when he does come out in an NBA type of defensive system. Howland is a great teacher of man to man defensive principles, particularly on the perimeter. Holiday has active hands, and does a really good job of tracing the basketball when pressuring his own man after the dribble has been picked up. Holiday is really good at forcing difficult post entry passes at the college level, and he is tough to beat off the dribble in the half court. Sometimes he will get a little "handsy", and put his hands on people when there is no reason to do so. A little realized fact is that NCAA basketball is in many ways more physical than the NBA, because the officials allow so much defensive contact. Holiday takes adavantage of that by bumping cutters hard as they cross his face on cuts.....trust me, Holiday delivers quite a few off the ball forearm shivers to the chest of cutters, pleasing his tough minded coach.

    On the downside, Holiday (like many young, inexperienced players) has a glaring tendency to stare at the ball when he is in help side and lose track of his man. Often teams I watched werent set up in a way to do anything about it, but occasionally Holiday will get beat by backdoor cuts, as he loses "ball-you-man" type of positioning. This isn't a fatal weakness, it just shows that he is young and still has things to learn about how to play properly.

    Holiday will possibly be a very good NBA rebounder for a point guard, assuming that he someday is able to transition to the position. He is physically tough and playing in a tough minded program will only enhance this skill. He has long arms, good instincts, and strong hands as a rebounder, although that is a skill that will be negated by playing the point guard in many systems and styles of offense.

    Offensively, I don't see much that impresses me. He was clearly uncomfortable playing off the ball so much, you can see that on fiilm easily. Holiday didn't cut very well I didn't think, often rounding his cuts off and not using his screens very well coming off baseline screen action, or on the "zipper" type action the Bruins used occasionally. He also had a pretty bad habit of staring at the ball when he moved, instead of watching his man to know where and how to properly cut. One tape of Holiday I watched live during the season produced this note I took at the time :"Holiday stares LONGINGLY at the ball, like a puppy staring out the window waiting on his owner to get home".....my mind works in odd ways watching games and taking notes sometimes!

    Holiday didn't get the ball very often, and I thought he pouted a little bit during games about it, especially on offense. The fact that I thought he was right to be miffed at times mitigates this for me a little, but overall, I think Holiday thinks he is better than he really is.....and that would be a concern for me.

    Holiday didn't score much, in fact he rarely got into double digits toward the end of the year, averaging only around 8 points per game. Granted, his entire team was a mess offensively, but you would still think a player thought of in the lottery would be more productive than that. He missed alot of the shots he did take from the outside, and seemed to struggle to make shots from a standstill position off kickouts. His percentage didn't seem to improve even when he was wide open....by and large I thought Holiday took good shots mostly, he just rarely made them. I don't see anything particularly wrong form wise, so maybe it was just a comfort/rhythm type of thing. Clearly though, his results indicate a lack of range at this moment in time, yet another thing he needs to develop to be a good NBA lead guard someday.

    He rarely took a pull up off the dribble jumper in the games I watched, but when he did, he didn't convert very many. I didn't notice any particularly weakness in terms of favoring one direction or the other (such as Henderson has in this draft), but the most noticable thing at this point to me is that he simply misses too many shots to be reliable. Even that is a mystery to me as to why, because I also believe that Holiday has nice lower body balance and a reasonably decent looking release as well.

    The evidence cries out that Holiday is a poor shooter from anywhere outside the paint, regardless of why. My educated guess is that Holiday has huge hands, and therefore will need much help from a "shot doctor" to help adjust his hand/finger positions on the ball to help get a better shooting result. I'm guessing of course, but that would be one idea to help him get better. On occasion, but not everytime, I saw him lean to his left while shooting, a tough to break habit that I had myself as a player. Fortunately, the Pacers do have people to help with particular details like that.

    All that above stuff just reinforces that Holiday is either a point guard or a Euro player at this point, he has no positional value anywhere but as a lead guard to me, although there will surely be others who feel differently about that.

    I do like some things about his point guard future, but I need more evidence and proof to be sure enough to recommend him.

    I like his balance, upperbody strength, and super strong hands. I like the fact that he views himself as a point guard, and nothing else....I like "positional purity" in my point guards. I like Holiday alot as a potential defender at the point guard spot with a little more experience. I really like (on the rare occasions he had the ball and made a play off the dribble) that he really seems strong with the ball and is able to make very accurate passes. The ability to make a "perfect pass" is a hugely underrated skill for a player at any position.....it is glaring on film to me that Darren Collison struggled with this very thing, often throwing balls just a little high, low, or behind people. The little things often mean alot in basketball, and the abilty to pass the ball "between the numbers" is something that Holiday seems to have, although like I keep emphasizing, we don't have enough evidence to be sure.

    To be a very good NBA player, if you struggle as a shooter you need to have either extraordinary athleticism, or some terrific outstanding particularly skill. At this point, I don't project Holiday to have either one of these. Holiday isn't uber quick, or super fast, or a great leaper. He is functional, even good, at those traits but so are a bunch of other guys. Holiday doesn't stand out to me in any real valuable way at this point in his development. He isnt nearly the freak athlete that some people want to project him to be. I think some "experts" see what they want to see sometimes, and right now people want to see the next Westbrook, the next Rajon Rondo, or a physical freak like Derrick Rose. Wishing doesn't make it so however.

    I need to see Holiday run a team from the point. I need to see him be a coach on the floor, show leadership, defend quick point guards instead of wings, make plays out of the screen/roll, see him run an offense and make intelligent decisions. I need to see him do this consistently, do it often, do it well, and do it against big time competition.

    If I were guiding Holiday, I'd tell him to stay in school and get better.

    If I am the Pacers decision makers, I can't afford to take on a long term project at this point, even one with a lot of potential of growth. We simply arent a good enough team to carry a young player as a 3rd point guard. That is what I see Holiday being for the next 2 years in the league....the NBA is a tough league to learn for a young point guard anyway, imagine how tough it will be for an average athlete who can't shoot well and who hasnt played the position since high school 2 years ago!

    If Holiday does stay in the draft, I think the best situation for him would be to be drafted by a team like Phoenix, New Orleans, or Utah.... a place with a big time point guard already who he can learn from and improve with little pressure to have to play right away.

    Who do I see him as an NBA comparison?

    If he completely maxes out his abilities, really improves his shot, and gains experience, I see his absolute highest ceiling to be our own Jarrett Jack.
    I don't ever see him being any better than that, and even that I think is unlikely. Anybody who sees him as a Rodney Stuckey, Chauncey Billups, or someone like that is hoping with their heart more than analyzing with their brain, at least as I see it right now.

    A great former player comparison is also right in front of our noses I think:

    Quinn Buckner.

    Buckner was a really good collegiate player who I think has a similar skill set at the pro level as Holiday has, and had a similar build and athletic pros and cons. Most people don't consider Buckner a very good professional point guard, although his toughness and attitude was good, and he was a very good and physical defender back in the day.


    In summary, I think Holiday should and likely will end up back in school, but if he stays in the draft he shouldnt be picked anywhere in the top 20. In a weak draft year, someone will likely gamble on him around that area if not before. Whoever does will be making a mistake if they expect any immediate impact or help this season, in my view. In the position they find themselves in, the Pacers should definitely pass on drafting Holiday, no matter what any of the so called draft experts say.

    As always, the above is just my opinion.

    Tbird
    Last edited by thunderbird1245; 05-29-2009, 10:41 AM.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

    Great work as always Tbird.

    I'll admit that I was one that jumped aboard the Holiday bandwagon, simply because of all the positive press he receives from scouts. Even for someone that watches a lot of college basketball, it's difficult to catch many games for UCLA simply because of the lack of exposure they get here in the midwest.

    I was under the impression that Jrue was a true PG and was forced to play out of position simply because of seniority with Collison around. It sounds as if that's incorrect as well. While it's a good thing that Jrue has that PG state of mind that tbird touched on, it sounds as if he still has a lot of work to put in to actually achieve his potential.

    Also, I recently watched an interview he had after his workout with the Kings. The interviewer (his name escapes me) asked JH where he felt he could go in the draft. Jrue went on to say he wanted the #1 spot. While that doesn't sound like much at all, it came off a little arrogant on his part. It could be nothing, and maybe my dislike for players with a overgrown ego (not to be mistaken with confidence) has clouded my judgement, but Jrue just doesn't appear as attractive as he did just a couple days ago for me.

    In my opinion, I feel like we have a solid basis for our future core with Granger, Rush, Hibbert, and even Jack. However, I do feel this draft is very important in the sense that we need someone that has a lot of potential, but at the same time can contribute enough to push us over the top and back into the playoffs. Jrue, at this stage of his development, seems to MAYBE only fill one of those. If the front office can't find a player they like that can fit those needs at #13, I think we seriously need to think about trading down and trying to find a veteran shot-blocker or future picks. That's a completely different topic though.

    Outside of Jrue, I didn't have a whole lot of interest in many of the PG's in the draft. I think we need to stay away from the small PG's (Flynn, Lawson, etc.) simply because I don't think the positives outweigh the negatives with most of them. As we're seeing in the Cleveland/Orlando series, a lot of these smaller point guards are getting exposed on defense by the bigger wing players that have the ability to handle the ball.

    One other PG that I have a lot of interest in is Tyreke Evans. But again, most of my interest here stems from scouting reports I've read from the "experts". I've heard he is more of a wing player with ball handling skills (Marquis?), than a true PG. I'm hoping tbird will put together some thoughts on Tyreke as the draft gets closer.

    Again, thanks for the breakdown and I look forward to your upcoming evaluations.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

      Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post


      Anyway, most of what a person thinks of Holiday is a projection into the future, because we haven't ever really got to see Jrue play his NBA position against any sort of tougher competition. This leaves a person to have to try to judge him in small bursts of plays, trying to read very fine nuances. It also brings a scouts personal biases and predilections into play, because their is so much open to interpretation. It is for this reason that I believe that there will be a wide variety of opinions on Holiday among teams, fans, draft "experts", and members of this very forum. With very little to go on in film that we have access to, it becomes a reading of tea leaves in many ways.
      From what I've read Holiday plays nothing like he played in high school. So some of the scouts that liked him then are going from what they seen then.

      Regardless, I don't think he is in the Pacers plans because they like upper classmen with experience. From what Chad Ford wrote it appears Holiday is going in the top ten so we won't have to worry about him.
      Last edited by Will Galen; 05-29-2009, 01:17 AM.

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      • #4
        Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

        i wouldn't say holiday played nothing like he did in high school. i'd just argue that this past year's high school class is one of the worst in recent memory. honestly, there probably weren't many kids in high school better than holiday in his class, his class was just so weak that it made him look like a future all-star comparatively.

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        • #5
          Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

          If we ended up keeping Ford and letting Jack go....I wouldn't mind gambling on Holiday.....let him mature over the course of a season as a 3rd/2nd PG option for the next 2 seasons behind Ford...with the hopes that he will be ready to take over in 2 seasons. But HeartlandFan and Will pointed out something important......although it is optimal to draft a Player that has potential AND can immediately contribute enough by infusing some much needed talent into the lineup, it doesn't appear that we will get that from a Freshman that has barely played the position that he will likely be drafted for.

          As Will said.....he won't be there by the time we pick. I'm inclined to believe that with what Rose, Paul and ( to a lesser degree ) Rondo have done to transform teams.....some GM with a Top 10 pick is going to gamble on him based purely on potential.
          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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          • #6
            Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

            Westbrook was thrown into the same role that Jrue was, but excelled. I have my worries about him as well. But it seems that with good workouts, he still could be selected in the lottery. That is how weak this draft is, that a player with so many ?s could sneak into the lottery.

            He is horrible on pull up jumpers, something that this teams needs. I do like his defense and hoped that what we saw on the offensive end was an aberration.

            We need a physical "larger" point guard, but we need him this year. Even if we traded Ford and not resigned Jack, Jrue would struggle to outplay Diener for the backup spot.

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            • #7
              Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

              The problem with JRue is that the Pacers need someone who can at least contribute and
              Holiday does not sound like he is able at this point. Teague has some size at 6'1" and has
              a reach of 6'7" so he can defend bigger guards. So I could see him before Jrue.
              {o,o}
              |)__)
              -"-"-

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              • #8
                Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
                it is probably point guard or bust for Holiday at the next level.

                I do not like Holiday at all as a player for this draft, and I feel pretty strongly that he shouldn't be in it. Ultimately, I think he clearly should head back to school, play point guard full time for a season and prove himself.

                To be a very good NBA player, if you struggle as a shooter you need to have either extraordinarty athleticism, or some terrific outstanding particularly skill. At this point, I don't project Holiday to have either one of these. Holiday isn't uber quick, or super fast, or a great leaper. He is functional, even good, at those traits but so are a bunch of other guys. Holiday doesn't stand out to me in any real valuable way at this point in his development. He isnt nearly the freak athlete that some people want to project him to be. I think some "experts" see what they want to see sometimes, and right now people want to see the next Westbrook, the next Rajon Rondo, or a physical freak like Derrick Rose. Wishing doesn't make it so however.

                I need to see Holiday run a team from the point. I need to see him be a coach on the floor, show leadership, defend quick point guards instead of wings, make plays out of the screen/roll, see him run an offense and make intelligent decisions. I need to see him do this consistently, do it often, do it well, and do it against big time competition.

                If I were guiding Holiday, I'd tell him to stay in school and get better.
                Tbird,

                Even as a big proponent of Holiday, I agree with everything I've quoted above.

                I do, however, think that Holiday will someday be an NBA PG. I don't see him as being a star. I view him as more of a 15 pts, 8 assists guy who plays very good defense and doesn't turn the ball over much.

                I'd consider him for #13 mainly because I think he fits in as a starter with our projected future lineup better than anyone else that's likely to be available. In 2 years, it's a lot easier for me to envision a lineup of Holiday, Rush, Granger, PF X, and Hibbert than it is for me to believe that DeJaun Blair or James Johnson is going to be PF X. Also, the other players I like (Gerald Henderson, Terrence Williams) are going to be backups for their entire foreseeable careers with the Pacers and they're going to have to really fight for minutes if Dunleavy comes back healthy.
                "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

                - Salman Rushdie

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                • #9
                  Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                  It's hard to tell whether the Bruins stand alot on offense because Collison over dribbled so much, or because Collison dribbled so much because his teammates didn't move....perhaps a little of both.
                  All Collison. Tell me Love and Westbook didn't know how to play away from the ball. My knock on Collison midway LAST season was that he was a offensive killing dribble machine. Being "the man" this year made it twice as bad. He makes Travis Best look like John Stockton.

                  He ruined Holliday's season. The funny thing is that if you followed them throughout the year you saw a change where Howland finally had to give up and go to Holliday more. In the tourney he put Holliday into a few more PnR which had good success. Then he put Collison in the same situation and it would flop horribly.

                  When Westbrook came out and Collison stayed it killed UCLA's season. Shipp is off and on, but if it had been he, W'brook and Holliday out there the Bruins would have seen a much better season.


                  For people that follow these discussions it's old news, but since this is something of an official thread I'll repeat it. I project Jrue to be something like Vern Fleming, and that would include numbers to go with the style. He's not Rose, but he seems legit enough to play healthy PG minutes for at least modestly good teams. He might be a bit better than Chalmers.

                  Then again he does have more upside right now since we've barely seen the tip of what he might do, it's just that I'm reluctant to buy into that. I wouldn't be shocked if he was pretty darn good, but there is no way I'd bet on it.

                  He looks set to go top 10. In this draft that's fair. Last year he'd be pick 18-24.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                    I was under the impression that Jrue was a true PG and was forced to play out of position simply because of seniority with Collison around. It sounds as if that's incorrect as well.
                    No, this is correct. Jrue signed with UCLA expecting to take Collison's place. Starting last year the projection was that Collison was going to come out as a top 15 pick, Westbrook would remain and hope to get some PG minutes which he wanted, and that Jrue would be the team's primary PG.

                    Collison stunk, lowered his draft stock and ended up coming back. Meanwhile Westbrook showed an incredible nose for the ball and a knack for making plays and came out. Even Love went from a maybe to a definitely draft entry.

                    So Jrue ended up getting kinda jobbed. Howland forced him to play off-ball which is something he never wanted any part of. He shows no skill nor desire to be a combo guard type, he wants to run the point. He can score but is not a pure score first AI type by any stretch. He's less passing oriented than Jennings, but more than Evans or even Westbrook. Again, Chalmers' balance of scoring/passing is the closest match I've seen recently, though Mario is a better scorer than Jrue right now.


                    The reason Holliday is up the rankings is because he actually has the size and basic skills to play NBA point. He's not just another quick, short guy with modest handles that looks great in college and has very little use in the NBA where everyone is quick and everyone needs a few go-to moves that are tough to stop rather than just leaning on speed.

                    This doesn't make him great, it means the draft is weak and teams don't want to waste a pick on a name that's really not going to last more than 2 years. They at least want a guy that could make it given the right direction.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                      Given our perimeter defense, maybe the much better defender, teammate Collison, would be a good pickup as an early second rounder if we could get there. Not as a starter, but as a defensive-minded and relatively mistake-free PG on the second unit (assuming TJ or Jack is gone)
                      The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

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                      • #12
                        Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                        Originally posted by pacertom View Post
                        Given our perimeter defense, maybe the much better defender, teammate Collison, would be a good pickup as an early second rounder if we could get there. Not as a starter, but as a defensive-minded and relatively mistake-free PG on the second unit (assuming TJ or Jack is gone)
                        In the offense the Pacers ran last year, Collison would be far from mistake-free.
                        "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

                        - Salman Rushdie

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                        • #13
                          Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                          If Jrue Holiday is available at thirteen. The Pacers should take a very strong look at him. He is a big strong guard that could turn into a nice professional player.

                          T-Bird
                          I always read your draft analysis but I would love for you to write an analysis after you have a chance to interview a prospect b/c that is the only way they would be more complete.

                          If Jrue wants to come in here and work hard earn his keep, play defense and Win they I would love him in Pacers Uniform. If he feels like he is All Star already then I do not want him here.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                            Originally posted by Jonathan View Post
                            If Jrue Holiday is available at thirteen. The Pacers should take a very strong look at him. He is a big strong guard that could turn into a nice professional player.

                            T-Bird
                            I always read your draft analysis but I would love for you to write an analysis after you have a chance to interview a prospect b/c that is the only way they would be more complete.

                            If Jrue wants to come in here and work hard earn his keep, play defense and Win they I would love him in Pacers Uniform. If he feels like he is All Star already then I do not want him here.
                            Trust me, if I could figure out a way to interview prospects in person myself, I'd do it!

                            I would love to be one of the guys at the draft camp, seeing all the players work out. Although I think those camps are way overrated in general, I always would like to see how the players interact with one another, how they accept instruction, how they might sound in a press conference and an interview, how fans would percieve them, etc etc.

                            You often can see natural leadership take place in a setting like this....leaders tend to sort themselves out in a camp atmosphere like that, so that would interest me. I'd want to see how a player responds when he gets beat in a drill, how fast he runs from one drill to another, how much he talks on the basketball floor, etc etc.

                            Lack of information is why this is an imperfect science, among many other reasons. The game film shows alot, but there are things you miss that are important, but its the only tool I have when doing these.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tbird 2009 draft analysis #3: Jrue Holiday

                              Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                              The reason Holliday is up the rankings is because he actually has the size and basic skills to play NBA point. He's not just another quick, short guy with modest handles that looks great in college and has very little use in the NBA where everyone is quick and everyone needs a few go-to moves that are tough to stop rather than just leaning on speed.

                              This doesn't make him great, it means the draft is weak and teams don't want to waste a pick on a name that's really not going to last more than 2 years. They at least want a guy that could make it given the right direction.
                              Do you think that Holiday is NBA Ready?

                              I strongly suspect that TPTB will be looking for an NBA Ready player unless there is some player with potential blows them away and Bird really wants him.

                              Even if he isn't.....but if he was available.....I don't mind drafting Holiday IF I knew that we were going to retain either Jack or Ford....but not both....since it would mean that JO'B would be ( in some way ) forced to give Holiday minutes at the PG spot.

                              Basically, any player that we draft whether it's a PG, GF or PF, I want to be sure that he gets a minimum of 10 to 15 mpg in his rookie season. If both Ford and Jack are here.....if we draft a PG, he won't get any minutes behind the both of them.
                              Last edited by CableKC; 05-30-2009, 01:47 AM.
                              Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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