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Thread: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

  1. #1
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Well, I figure we're close enough. Let's get this rolling.

    I'm assuming the #7 spot is out of our reach, and that the teams below us (NY, Toronto, Washington) are not threats to catch us. So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana. Also, I won't start tracking tiebreakers until the last 5 Pacers games. That means we'll need to win outright in order to get the magic number. And we're off!

    ======

    Milwaukee: 30-36 (16 games remaining)
    Chicago: 29-36 (17 games remaining)
    New Jersey: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
    Charlotte: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
    Indiana: 28-37 (17 games remaining)

    Magic numbers are calculated by assuming that the rest of the teams win the remainder of their games. Then, every Pacers win or loss reduces the magic number by 1. On nights where the Pacers win AND the other team loses, the magic number drops by at least 2. It's possible for such a win to decrease the magic number by 3, if it gives the Pacers the edge in head-to-head, which is the first tiebreaker. But like I said, I won't be calculating that until the last 5 games. So here are our possible finishes:

    Milwaukee: 46 wins
    Chicago: 46 wins
    New Jersey: 47 wins
    Charlotte: 47 wins

    It's ironic that the top two teams (Milwaukee and Chicago) will actually be easier to catch than NJ and Charlotte, due to those teams having more games remaining. Pacers would need 48 wins to ensure success, which means 20 wins out of our next 17. No sweat!

    So here's the final, as of March 10th. I'll update this nightly for the rest of the season.

    Charlotte - 20
    New Jersey - 20
    Chicago - 19
    Milwaukee - 19
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    Member pacerfreak's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Thanks for taking the time to do this. I've been looking at all this on nba.com but not actually getting it figured out. This really helps.

    I'm very hopeful, however I feel like it's a really long shot for us to make the 8th seed.

    I guess after looking at the numbers it doesn't look as bad as it seams.

    I will be watching the Bucks, Bulls, Cats, Nets, and Knicks. I also think that the Sixers could fall dramatically.

    'freak...out!

  3. #3
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    It's still pretty hard. Charlotte has 19 games left. We need to have them lose 10 of those, and we'd have to win 10, to make it past them.
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    I loved this thread last season. Good work, Anthem!

  5. #5
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    After the March 10 games:

    Indy lost, Milwaukee lost, Charlotte lost, Chicago and New Jersey didn't play.

    New Jersey - 20
    Charlotte - 19
    Chicago - 19
    Milwaukee - 18
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    You preface the whole thing and I still get this...
    So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana.
    "Only" he says.

    Man's that's a lot of teams to be battling with only 16 games left. Ugh.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Instead of making my annual "darksider" version of this process, the "eliminated from the bottom" variation that is meant to discourage tank hopes but always gets ripped by insane/misguided sunshiners who think it's my way of saying the team stinks, I'm going to just piggy-back in here.

    Teams the Pacers can't "catch" in terms of most losses and the magic numbers for those teams to "eliminate" the Pacers from those higher draft spots. I have ties factored out by setting the magic number to ensure 1 more loss by the other team.

    Believe it or not the Pacers are not yet mathematically safe from coming last in the NBA.

    Going from top draft slot down, a Pacers win or a loss by these teams reduces their "magic" number on the Pacers and makes tankers cry.

    Kings 5
    Clips 6
    Wiz 6
    OKC 9
    Griz 9

    Minny 10
    GS 13
    Toronto 14
    Bucks 18
    NY 18
    B'cats 19

  8. #8
    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Instead of making my annual "darksider" version of this process, the "eliminated from the bottom" variation that is meant to discourage tank hopes but always gets ripped by insane/misguided sunshiners who think it's my way of saying the team stinks, I'm going to just piggy-back in here.

    Teams the Pacers can't "catch" in terms of most losses and the magic numbers for those teams to "eliminate" the Pacers from those higher draft spots. I have ties factored out by setting the magic number to ensure 1 more loss by the other team.

    Believe it or not the Pacers are not yet mathematically safe from coming last in the NBA.

    Going from top draft slot down, a Pacers win or a loss by these teams reduces their "magic" number on the Pacers and makes tankers cry.

    Kings 5
    Clips 6
    Wiz 6
    OKC 9
    Griz 9

    Minny 10
    GS 13
    Toronto 14
    Bucks 18
    NY 18
    B'cats 19
    What makes me cry is missing out on both the playoffs and a good draft pick. But, hey, if we do it enough years in a row, surely our luck will change! Right? Right? Hello?

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    Yeah, I'm a Pacers fan. MyFavMartin's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Well, I figure we're close enough. Let's get this rolling.

    I'm assuming the #7 spot is out of our reach, and that the teams below us (NY, Toronto, Washington) are not threats to catch us. So I'm only tracking Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey, Charlotte, and Indiana. Also, I won't start tracking tiebreakers until the last 5 Pacers games. That means we'll need to win outright in order to get the magic number. And we're off!

    ======

    Milwaukee: 30-36 (16 games remaining)
    Chicago: 29-36 (17 games remaining)
    New Jersey: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
    Charlotte: 28-35 (19 games remaining)
    Indiana: 28-37 (17 games remaining)

    Magic numbers are calculated by assuming that the rest of the teams win the remainder of their games. Then, every Pacers win or loss reduces the magic number by 1. On nights where the Pacers win AND the other team loses, the magic number drops by at least 2. It's possible for such a win to decrease the magic number by 3, if it gives the Pacers the edge in head-to-head, which is the first tiebreaker. But like I said, I won't be calculating that until the last 5 games. So here are our possible finishes:

    Milwaukee: 46 wins
    Chicago: 46 wins
    New Jersey: 47 wins
    Charlotte: 47 wins

    It's ironic that the top two teams (Milwaukee and Chicago) will actually be easier to catch than NJ and Charlotte, due to those teams having more games remaining. Pacers would need 48 wins to ensure success, which means 20 wins out of our next 17. No sweat!

    So here's the final, as of March 10th. I'll update this nightly for the rest of the season.

    Charlotte - 20
    New Jersey - 20
    Chicago - 19
    Milwaukee - 19
    Need to add the Knicks after tonight.

  10. #10
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    What makes me cry is missing out on both the playoffs and a good draft pick. But, hey, if we do it enough years in a row, surely our luck will change! Right? Right? Hello?
    Man are you going to regret things if Rush works out as expected.

    And can I get a complaint about not getting a higher pick the year Danny was drafted? So to you it's year (Rush) after year (gave up Acie Law, I call that a win personally) after year (Williams)...but not after year, because that's Granger then. So 3 years is enough years in a row to make fun of, let's keep it mum on that 4th year.

    Right now my pick for this year is Terrence Williams, L'ville. A tall SG/PG (I think true NBA PG) who rebounds 8 a night with many double digit rebounds, a slew of 7-8 assist games the last month and a new found outside shot after Pitino reworked his motion completely.

    He's slotted in the mid to late 20's, long past the Pacers pick. Other than FT shooting he's a brilliant prospect who plays a very smart and physical game, and we could still get him even if the team does make the playoffs. And this in a crap draft year no less.


    As I've said in previous "we must tank" debates, missing out on a #6 pick also ensures that we aren't the team that picked Sene or Darko way too high. It cuts both ways.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-11-2009 at 09:27 PM.

  11. #11
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Chicago lost, NJ is playing Golden State (I'll finalize tomorrow), Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Indiana didn't play.

    New Jersey - 19
    Charlotte - 19
    Chicago - 18
    Milwaukee - 18
    NY - 18
    Last edited by Anthem; 03-12-2009 at 09:33 AM.
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  12. #12
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by iPACER View Post
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    Need to add the Knicks after tonight.
    They're currently 27-37, so they have 18 games left. If they win out they can finish with 45 wins, so we'd need 46 wins to pass them. We're currently 28-38, so our NY magic number is 18. I'll track that from now on.
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  13. #13
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Jersey lost, so now we are only two games behind both Jersey and Chicago in the all important lost column.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    We could make up some serious ground tonight if we can beat the Hawks.

    Chicago plays Philly, Charlotte plays Houston, New York plays Minnesota, Milwaukee plays Nawlins, and Jersey plays Portland. In all of those (except maybe NY-Minny) I'd expect a loss for the team we're fighting with.

    At the same time, though, the Hawks have had our number recently. Let's hope Danny comes out hot.
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

    New Jersey - 18
    NY - 18
    Charlotte - 18
    Chicago - 17
    Milwaukee - 17
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

    New Jersey - 18
    NY - 18
    Charlotte - 18
    Chicago - 17
    Milwaukee - 17
    Torture.

    Would have been nice not to screw this up.

    But I guess if you lose to the Wizards you probably shouldn't even be in playoff consideration.
    Super Bowl XLI Champions
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  17. #17
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

    Kings 4
    Wiz 4
    Clips 6
    Griz 7
    OKC 8

    Minny 9
    Toronto 12
    GS 13
    Bucks 17

    NY 18
    B'cats 18
    Bulls 18
    NJ 18

    Starting to come closer to a 7th slot. I hate to say it but top 10 feels more definite every day. So much for the late season rally. You just can't lose games like the ATL loss. Good or not, those are the teams you have to beat unless you want to climb my list.

    On the sunshiner side, look at all those teams Shade gets to root for now.

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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Rough night. Everybody else lost, but so did we. Would have been nice to make up some ground.

    New Jersey - 18
    NY - 18
    Charlotte - 18
    Chicago - 17
    Milwaukee - 17
    Er, I think at least one team won.
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

  19. #19
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Quote Originally Posted by DisplacedKnick View Post
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    Er, I think at least one team won.
    Nobody that mattered.

    Don't worry, I didn't change your magic number.
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  20. #20
    Member LoneGranger33's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Minny up 15 at the half over Charlotte, 66-51.
    Chicago up even more on the Hornets, 40-24 (2nd Quarter).

  21. #21
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Minny won, which is great, but Chicago also won, which is less so.

    New Jersey - 18
    NY - 18
    Charlotte - 17
    Chicago - 17
    Milwaukee - 17
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  22. #22
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Thought we'd make a move when Granger was due "any day now" with the Portland game... been 3 games and we really could have made a jump when you look at how other teams have performed in the same span.

  23. #23
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    We are not winning enough games. The other teams are doing their part (NJ and NY lost, nobody else played), but we can't catch up without some wins. There's still time, but it's close. 16 games remaining, and every single team has a magic number of 17.

    New Jersey - 17
    NY - 17
    Charlotte - 17
    Chicago - 17
    Milwaukee - 17
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Those last 2 losses not only hurt the bottom line, they don't really inspire confidence in this whole process. Am I way off thinking this sqaud is sputtering to the end worse than last year?

    You can't just pin it on Granger's injury because initially they reacted well to it. And while Dun has been out, Troy has been twice as effective as he was last year so there is some tradeoff there. Plus this squad has had healthy PG play all season.

    Shouldn't this be going better now?

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Annual Magic Number Thread (2009)

    Man, this isn't going well unless you are a tanker. Pacers aren't exactly getting eliminated by any of these bad teams very quickly.

    DRAFT SLOT MAGIC NUMBERS (to eliminate Pacers from that spot, barring lottery win)

    Kings 3
    Wiz 4
    Clips 5
    Griz 7
    OKC 7

    Minny 9
    Toronto 12
    GS 12
    Bucks 17

    NY 17
    B'cats 17
    NJ 17
    Bulls 18

    The Pacers aren't going to "catch" Minny or the other bottom 6 teams, the magic numbers for those teams to pass Indy is insanely high. However Toronto and GS are flirting with passing Indy and shoving them down to that #7 or #8 draft spot.

    Pacers mathematically eliminated by 6 teams already. Denver, Utah, Portland and New Orleans should finish them off this week. So a top 20 pick is about to become official.

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