I have been thinking that the Pacers are playing inconsistently due to wins against elite teams and losses to non-elite, but a recent article describes them as the most consistent team.
My next step, then, was to utilize the differential for each team as well as the location to create a projection of what the outcome would have been if a .500 team had played each game. For example, a completely average team going on the road (-3.5 points) to play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+9.6 points) would reasonably be expected to lose by 13.1 points. To determine how well the team actually played in this circumstance, we have to add 13.1 points to the actual outcome. So a nine-point loss at Quicken Loans Arena actually indicates a team has played better than average.
Recalculating everything using adjusted differentials, here is the new list of most and least consistent teams.
Inconsistent Dev Consistent Dev
New Jersey 14.6 Indiana 8.8
L.A. Clippers 14.2 Charlotte 10.0
Denver 12.9 Cleveland 10.2
Dallas 12.6 Philadelphia 10.3
Sacramento 12.5 Houston 11.2
In most cases, the changes are not dramatic. The Nets and the Pacers still show up at opposite extremes, and Indiana comes out as positively metronomic once the quality of opposition is taken into account, at least relatively speaking.