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Thread: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

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    Default ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=25192


    Cory (Indy): Chad in your estimation why didnt David Morway, and Larry Bird make a deal with anyone?

    SportsNation Chad Ford: My guess is that they had two pieces of information we didn't. 1. Mike Dunleavy was probably out for the year. 2. Danny Granger was probably out for three weeks to a month. Neither piece of info was public until after the trade deadline. Why spend the money on a team with no shot of making the playoffs? Remember, the Pacers are losing a lot of money. I think they decided that the prudent thing to do was to take a wait and see approach in the summer. Given the circumstances, I think it was probably the right move.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    I agree with Ford's reasoning on the financial side of why the Pacers did not trade off their expiring contracts.

    In my mind, they DID "make good of their expirings".

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Well, they came into the season w/7 new faces - Rasho, Jack, Ford, Maceo (old-brand new), Hibbert, BRush & McRoberts. Of those, Rasho, Maceo and McRob have expiring contracts @ season's end totallying $11.4M. Add in Quis & Jack who will be FAs over the summer and I can see why the Pacers stood pat. That's just over $21M to play with on the FA market.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by NuffSaid View Post
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    Well, they came into the season w/7 new faces - Rasho, Jack, Ford, Maceo (old-brand new), Hibbert, BRush & McRoberts. Of those, Rasho, Maceo and McRob have expiring contracts @ season's end totallying $11.4M. Add in Quis & Jack who will be FAs over the summer and I can see why the Pacers stood pat. That's just over $21M to play with on the FA market.
    No, that makes for 1 mid level exception to play with on the FA market ......

    And that's about it.

    -- Steve --

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by NuffSaid View Post
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    Well, they came into the season w/7 new faces - Rasho, Jack, Ford, Maceo (old-brand new), Hibbert, BRush & McRoberts. Of those, Rasho, Maceo and McRob have expiring contracts @ season's end totallying $11.4M. Add in Quis & Jack who will be FAs over the summer and I can see why the Pacers stood pat. That's just over $21M to play with on the FA market.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersfan46 View Post
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    No, that makes for 1 mid level exception to play with on the FA market ......

    And that's about it.

    -- Steve --
    We have $58mm in contracts next season on 9 players, and the tax threshold will be around $69.4mm. Therefore we have only about $11mm to sign 6 players to fill out the roster. The 1st round pick will take up about $2-3mm of that money. Most likely scenario is a $3-4mm signing (probably Jack), and some min contracts (probably 2nd rounders and McBob/Graham).

    You should never add up expiring contracts. It is misleading. What is important are the contracts that you still have. The Knicks, for example, have $33mm in expiring contracts, but will still be over the tax next season. (Or, at least that was true before the trades at the deadline.)

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersfan46 View Post
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    No, that makes for 1 mid level exception to play with on the FA market ......

    And that's about it.

    -- Steve --
    Please explain your reasoning...

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by kellogg View Post
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    Please explain your reasoning...
    See my post.

    Please

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    We have $58mm in contracts next season on 9 players, and the tax threshold will be around $69.4mm.
    HUH?

    You're expecting the salary cap to actually INCREASE this year?

    It's going down. Maybe not by much, but it's decreasing.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    You should never add up expiring contracts. It is misleading. What is important are the contracts that you still have. The Knicks, for example, have $33mm in expiring contracts, but will still be over the tax next season. (Or, at least that was true before the trades at the deadline.)
    Still true - we didn't help ourselves cap-wise.

    Though if my expected David Lee and Jared Jeffries for Bosh S&T happens this summer . . .

    That one makes so much sense for both teams (and for Lee & Bosh) I'd almost be surprised if it doesn't happen.
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    HUH?

    You're expecting the salary cap to actually INCREASE this year?

    It's going down. Maybe not by much, but it's decreasing.
    He said tax.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    HUH?

    You're expecting the salary cap to actually INCREASE this year?

    It's going down. Maybe not by much, but it's decreasing.
    Tax...not cap.

    The tax threshold is $71.2mm this year, dropping to $69.4 next.

    The cap is at $58.7mm, and it will probably drop into the $56-57mm range.

    I always use the tax level, because I believe it is treated as a hard cap by the Pacers FO and Ownership.

    So, we have $58mm in contracts, and we need to fill out the roster and stay under the tax. We're already over the cap, which is why I think Jack will be the "big" signing this summer, starting between $3 & 4mm.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    So it sounds like Larry is at least being realistic about this year...

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    This was the best possible use of our expirings, assuming we couldn't swing any additional draft picks out of them. The worst thing we could have done was take on additional salary beyond this season.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    I think the Tinsley trade almost happened as well as the Chandler trade.

    I'd rather have almost really good trades compared to actual bad trades.

    But both of these would have done nothing for the PO run this year asChandler is still recovering from an injury and Tinsley is always an injury in some form or another.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by kellogg View Post
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    Please explain your reasoning...
    Many years of dealing with, and understanding of the NBA cap rules. Then understanding of where the Pacers are willing, and more importantly where they aren't willing to go with their salary.

    It's pretty basic, really.

    -- Steve --

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    I think the injuries were partly the reason we stayed put, but at the same time I only think the pacers were only looking to move tins. in my opinion TPTB are happy to let the expirings expire.
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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoJ View Post
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    This was the best possible use of our expirings, assuming we couldn't swing any additional draft picks out of them. The worst thing we could have done was take on additional salary beyond this season.
    Well, maybe if your last name is Simon. From a fan point of view, it would do no harm to have traded them for players with a couple years left on their deals. With Dunleavy, Murphy, and god help us Tinsley on the books for a couple more years, the Pacers can't really get significantly under the cap. Granger also has a sizable salary that runs far beyond that.

    So if the Pacer had traded those expiring contracts for a quality player with 2 more years on his deal, it wouldn't have made our "cap hell" last any longer at all.

    I understand why the Simons did't want to do it. The pacer fans aren't a big revenue stream these days, so they want to save some money.

    But if you were hoping for a more talented Pacer team, those expiring deals were a lost opportunity.
    Last edited by danman; 02-24-2009 at 11:08 PM.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    No they weren't. Those players/ deals weren't going to fetch "talent", they were going to fetch somebody else's bad contract. The only hope for improving talent was and is to draft our way into more players like Granger - hopefully Rush and Hibbert are on their way but we still need a couple of drafts.

    It took a long time to make this Pacers team as bad as it currently is, it will take a while to make it better as well. Trading an expiring for somebody's problem or bad contract doesn't get them any closer.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Jay - plenty of expirings become good players, that's not the issue here. Maybe Tinsley would require a contract hit in return, but Rasho for a solid player from a team looking to cut costs is realistic. It wouldn't have to be a bad contract coming back, just one that no longer made sense for the other team, maybe because they were losing so much.

    The issue as Ford alludes to is you don't swap expiring for talent if the team isn't just that one step away from making a move. The only trade that would make sense right now is to get a young piece as part of the build, or pull in a draft pick with a less returned contract.

    But right now I don't think any team looking to take on an expiring is willing to give up young talent or a pick. Those teams are trying to get into the exact same position as the Pacers. Picks and young players.

    If the team was right on the edge then you turn Rasho into Baron Davis or some other big time guy on a team going nowhere.


    I agree that TPTB traded the expirings correctly - to themselves. The Pacers got what other teams wanted - expiring contracts.

    The only bummer to me is that Quis is playing out of his mind and makes a monster impact for this team, but they won't be able to keep him while being forced to retain the more expensive Dun and Troy. Figures you get one guy who can D up and he's financially squeezed out.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    But right now I don't think any team looking to take on an expiring is willing to give up young talent or a pick. Those teams are trying to get into the exact same position as the Pacers. Picks and young players.
    That's a given. Thus, I jumped straight to:

    Those players/ deals weren't going to fetch "talent", they were going to fetch somebody else's bad contract.
    ... because to me the statement you made is so painfully obvious that I didn't think it needed to be said.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    I think it goes back to the Foster extension. We would have more flexibility without it. Has it even been worth it so far?

    I'd love to keep Jack and Quis at the expense of not having Foster. Hindsight is 20/20, though.
    Last edited by Kuq_e_Zi91; 02-24-2009 at 11:55 PM.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by danman View Post
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    Well, maybe if your last name is Simon. From a fan point of view, it would do no harm to have traded them for players with a couple years left on their deals. With Dunleavy, Murphy, and god help us Tinsley on the books for a couple more years, the Pacers can't really get significantly under the cap. Granger also has a sizable salary that runs far beyond that.

    So if the Pacer had traded those expiring contracts for a quality player with 2 more years on his deal, it wouldn't have made our "cap hell" last any longer at all.

    I understand why the Simons did't want to do it. The pacer fans aren't a big revenue stream these days, so they want to save some money.

    But if you were hoping for a more talented Pacer team, those expiring deals were a lost opportunity.
    As a fan, I'm not just hoping for a more talented team, I'm hoping for a team that will contend. It appears that the deals available may have made the Pacers marginally better in the short term, but there cost would have far outweighed their benefits. As you note, it may not have made our cap hell last any longer, but it certainly would have made it much harsher and more damaging while it lasted.

    Using the Chandler as an example, trading expirings only for him could have resulted in perhaps as much as $40 million in additional salaries, taxes, and tax penalties over the next two years. It is doubtful that adding a player like Chandler does much more than put us in the fringes of the playoffs, so they probably wouldn't be able to recoup much more than a quarter of that money in additional revenues.

    Essentially, trading the expiring contracts for the rumored available deals would have been one of the most damaging things you could do to the franchise. Financially, it could have been a worse version of the Murphleavy trade, where even the solid-to-good performance of the players involved is forever offset by the way their contracts hamstring further improvement.

    Quote Originally Posted by tbabyy924 View Post
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    I think it goes back to the Foster extension. We would have more flexibility without it. Has it even been worth it so far?

    I'd love to keep Jack and Quis at the expense of not having Foster. Hindsight is 20/20, though.
    Of course, hindsight also now knows that the LT threshold is only $69.4mm, instead of the $75-ish that was anticipated last summer. The salary cap had been growing at a relatively steady rate (5-6%) since the signing of the CBA, but the economic events of late last fall have negatively impacted the NBA's finances, resulting in $5mm less room under the tax.

    I go back and forth on the Foster extension. I probably would not have done it, but I didn't think it was a terribly unreasonable move at the time. At the time of Jeff and Danny's extension, they had still left themselves room to do two of the following:

    - Re-sign Jack
    - Pick up Quis' option
    - Re-sign Rasho at a reduced rate
    - Sign a FA at the full MLE

    The drop in BRI and the tax threshold now means that they won't be able to do anything with either Rasho or Quis, and they likely will have to choose between re-signing Jack or signing a FA, but they'll probably only be able to use part of the MLE, instead of all of it.

    Also, the lottery will go a long way to determining what they'll be able to do, as well. If they were to pick according to their current standings, 10th, they'll have to pay their rookie about $2.2mm. However, if we were to get into the top three, the rookie could command anywhere from $3.5 to $5.0mm, depending on his slot. Getting the first pick in the draft would likely mean that we'd have to fill the roster out with min players, forgoing the re-signing of Jack or pursuing any other FA's.

  23. #23

    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    As a fan, I'm not just hoping for a more talented team, I'm hoping for a team that will contend. It appears that the deals available may have made the Pacers marginally better in the short term, but there cost would have far outweighed their benefits. As you note, it may not have made our cap hell last any longer, but it certainly would have made it much harsher and more damaging while it lasted.

    Using the Chandler as an example, trading expirings only for him could have resulted in perhaps as much as $40 million in additional salaries, taxes, and tax penalties over the next two years. It is doubtful that adding a player like Chandler does much more than put us in the fringes of the playoffs, so they probably wouldn't be able to recoup much more than a quarter of that money in additional revenues.

    Essentially, trading the expiring contracts for the rumored available deals would have been one of the most damaging things you could do to the franchise. Financially, it could have been a worse version of the Murphleavy trade, where even the solid-to-good performance of the players involved is forever offset by the way their contracts hamstring further improvement.
    other FA's.
    Again, the "harsher and more damaging" is oriented towards the Simon bank account. Swapping Rasho and Marquis for a good player(s) with a 2 year deal does not hamstring anything. It is not comparable to the Murphleavy trade AT ALL. That trade extended our capped status -- it's the parameter of this discussion. Now, if you're talking about trading the expiring for players with 3 or more years left, that's a different story.

    The only thing helping fans from letting the expiring players walk is the draft. Essentially, by lessening talent, we're going to get slightly better picks. May be even the diff between a #15 pick and a #8 or something. Impossible to know, really.

    Of course, we've also got 2 more years of bad basketball in this bargain.
    Last edited by danman; 02-25-2009 at 11:38 AM.

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    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Trading Rasho and Marquis is not enough to get a "good" player in return.

    Let's put it this way: if you were offered Rasho and Marquis, what "good" player making $1x-1x million (whatever it is that works) would you be willing to trade for them?

    On a 0.500 team, they are both backups/ role players. They'd barely play on a legit contender. You're not going to get a young stud on his rookie contract in a deal like that - the math doesn't work. A contender is not going to give up a starter in exchange for two expiring contract backups in February. (Unless, of course, the starter is a troublemaker or grossly overpaid.)

    If there was actually a trade out there to improve talent, they would have taken it. But trading is a zero-sum game unless you get into a "trading for potential" scenario. Expensive expiring contracts do not generally turn into "trading for potential" assets because of the salary cap math.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  25. #25

    Default Re: ESPN Chad Ford Chat: His take on why we didn't make good of our expirings.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoJ View Post
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    Let's put it this way: if you were offered Rasho and Marquis, what "good" player making $1x-1x million (whatever it is that works) would you be willing to trade for them?

    ...

    A contender is not going to give up a starter in exchange for two expiring contract backups in February. (Unless, of course, the starter is a troublemaker or grossly overpaid.)
    It's not the contenders that are looking to shed salary; it's the bad teams. It's the guys like Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter that could have been had. I'm not saying those would have been good trades, but don't act like there are no upgrades to be had from expiring contracts.

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