Here's my question, where exactly does David Lee significantly improve this team?
Rebounding? We're already first in the eastern conference.
Scoring? We're already first in the eastern conference.
This team needs DEFENSE. Lee averages .3 BPG, he is not an imposing defensive force. Great player, could make a huge impact on many, many teams, but I don't think the Pacers are one of those teams.
I would've supported your range even without this emphasis. By last year's salary structure Lee's overall production so far this year makes him "worth" about $7.5 mil ... even without adjusting downward to account for "D'Antoni-offense inflation." I suspect he's being viewed somewhat like Troy Murphy (not stylewise, mind you) in that both are showing great production this season ... and in both cases, the production is about as good as it's going to get.
"What if this is as good as it gets?"
- Jack Nicholson as Melvin Udall in "As Good as It Gets"
I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.
On rebound differential, the Pacers are negative .2 per game, a shade below average.
So yes, Lee would help considerably in an area of need.
There are other attributes, too. Lee doesn't clog driving lanes as a post player, and he runs the court very well.
However, if you want a guy who would be a tremendous asset on D, cross your fingers for Marcus Camby. Though 34, he's got relatively low mileage because of his injury history, and retains the explosive leaping that's abandoned JO. If the Pacers are serious about the "win now" thing, I think few players would help us as much as Camby.
That's 5 out of 30, 1 out of every 6, or 16%. How many of those teams want to hold on the their cap space and play in the 2010 FA? That will eliminate some of those that have the money.
Why would Miami be interested they have Beasley? Keep in mind there are other FA's this off season that might fit the need for those teams with cap space better than Lee. That narrows the teams even more.
Remember Ben Gordon was a RFA who couldn't find a team to sign him this past summer, so he signed for 6 mil in order to become a UFA this offseason. Lee is a RFA so it could play out very similiar to Landry. Teams wouldn't make an offer and tie up their money waiting for Houston to match it. Finally Charlotte made Landry an offer only to have Houston match it. If teams with the cap space think Walsh will match their offer, they won't be so inclined to make an offer.
You also have to take in the status of the economy and ownerships not wanting to spend money. Who is putting the money out to sign FA? It's ownership not the fans with their want list. These are the reasons why I say 7-8 mil. JMOAA
Why would Miami want to tie up their cap space when they need to re-sign Wade? When did Dumars suddenly become terminally stupid? Memphis and OK City both have buckets of young players they need to keep money for.
Is the cap going to be $80 million next year? Because that's the only way Dallas can offer anyone $10 million. In fact, Miami only has about $5 million in cap space. Off the top of your head that must be a bigger number than $10 million.
And Lee isn't an average defender, he's below average IMO.
I'm not really getting where you're going with that to explain why we have a negative differential.
-- Steve --
Make up your mind, which is it.but I'd agree that Lee is average here. However, I think he's a bit better than Rasho.
(ie, no way Rasho is a bit worse than average on defense)