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Thread: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

  1. #76
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. .......

    As it stands we are:

    1-0 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    1-0 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

  2. #77
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

    Well done.
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

  3. #78
    100 Miles from the B count55's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phree Refill View Post
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    I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. .......
    You should read the Star article this morning. O'Brien bears some responsibility for the play not being understood clearly, but he basically notes that Jack didn't make the right cut, and that Foster should have called a time out...or basically what you just said.

    Quote Originally Posted by DisplacedKnick View Post
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    I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

    Well done.
    And this is why this analysis is not an Epic Fail.

  4. #79

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    For me, it's been interesting to see if Phree's predictions would even come close, let alone if he'd be dead on. So far, it would seem he's been fairly on the mark. And while for him this may have the earmarks of a triumph, it's also very disappointing that my team continues to blow opportunities to move ahead.

    I think the loss-count is now down to 6 games before the Pacers lose any chance of staying at or above .500. If this team does makes it to the post-season, as with the last two seasons, they won't make it on their own. They'll need lots of help from other teams. Good luck with that....

    Lottery, here they come...

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    Banned Jonathan's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.

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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan View Post
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    It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not.
    Jonathan makes a really good point. If you look deep into the schedule the reality is, if we are still competitive and in the playoff hunt towards the end of the year, there is a chance we can pick up some games we shouldn't have won originally. For example, we play Cleveland the second to last game of the year. I'm pretty sure their playoff seeding will be determined already by then so they will most likely be resting their starters.

    A deeper look reveals that our last five games are against toronto, atlanta, detroit, cleveland, and milwuakee in that order. I have a feeling only milwaukee will actually have anything to play for at that point in the schedule (if they need that last game to hold on to the 8th seed). Toronto could very likely be tanking by then and the other three quite possibly could already have their playoff seed set in stone with no chance to improve or fall in the standings. So we very well could finish the season on a winning streak.... IF by then we haven't played our way out of the playoff picture. Hell there is a pretty good chance that by then we will be "tanking". Although if you look at the schedule from last year we are 1 game better right now than we were at this point then.

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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan View Post
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    Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.
    Agree that the Bucks won't tank because Skiles won't let them.

    Also agree on the NY and Toronto assessment.

    Don't think Chicago's trades will improve their FC enough?

    Detroit is anybody's guess. Current results indicate AI's not a team player. That's too bad as he has too much talent to waste it like this. He should be the 6th man and have Rip start.

  8. #83
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The Memphis win gets us off to a good start on Group A in this stretch of the schedule where we 6 of 7 games are against Group A opponents. The only non Group A opponent is Portland.

    It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that. However if the Pacers somehow pulled out a win Friday with our top 2 scorers out, I would think that it would be a huge confidence booster for our guys and may be just what they need to finish the season out on a hot streak.

    Predicting a loss for Friday, we will have just 5 more games that we can lose the rest of the season in order to finish .500

    As it stands we are:

    2-0 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    2-0 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

  9. #84

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phree Refill
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    It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.
    Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

  10. #85

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
    But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.

  11. #86
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Burtrem Redneck View Post
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    But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.
    This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.

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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phree Refill View Post
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    This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.
    I disagree. I think a team gets to a point - particularly playing against adversity - where a single loss doesn't change how they feel about themselves because they really have no other choice.

    The inconsistency on the team level isn't about confidence, it is about the small things that they do well one night and don't do well another night. That is the mark of wither a young team or a team that just isn't capable of going to the next level. As made up right now considering injuries and illnesses, this team is not able to go to the next level.
    BillS

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  13. #88

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phree Refill View Post
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    It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
    Quote Originally Posted by Burtrem Redneck View Post
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    But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.
    Quote Originally Posted by Phree Refill View Post
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    This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.
    The above dialog is the perfect sagway to comments Travis Deiner made in his latest blog entry (dated 02/25/09).

    "What helps get you through the tough times is the chemistry of the team and ours is really good. For the first time in my four years in the NBA, I think everybody likes each other and everybody likes coming to work each day and being around one another. Win or lose, we handle ourselves in a professional manner.

    Obviously, losing some games the way we've lost them this year, people can get frustrated and egos can start to come into play and guys can get angry but not on this team. Everyone's kept a level head whether we win or lose. It's been a good team to be around, a good staff to be around and I think eventually that's going to pay off for us.

    It's frustrating when you put a lot of work into something and you don't see the results. If we were getting beat by 30 every game and not competing, we'd know we were losing because we weren't competing. But we're competing, we're playing hard, we work hard in practice, so it's frustrating that we're not winning more games. On the flip side, we know we're very close to turning it around."

    I thought his words were very insightful and rather refreshing. You hear small bits and pieces of players saying that the atmosphere in the locker room has been good throughout the season, win or lose, but until Travis' blog entry you don't really believe it's true especially with all the losses the way this team has loss games. It's encouraging to read his commentary. This tells me that no matter what this group of players won't give up. They'll keep trying to learn from their mistakes and get better and make that all important playoff push. I don't think we, as fans, can ask for anything more than that. My "team spirit" has been renewed.
    Last edited by NuffSaid; 02-26-2009 at 11:32 AM.

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    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    It was a valliant effort last night but we just couldn't quite pull it out. I know it is very inaccurate to form the following correlation but part of me can't help but think this way. Had the Celtics not signed marbury we could have won. We lost by five and marbury had 8. Take him away and we win by 3. Hopefully we can keep the strong play on the home floor going on sunday.

    As it stands we are:

    2-1 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    2-1 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

  15. #90

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The Pacers lost. But I think you could argue that they played together, showed great poise and excellent energy. Boston didn't take that away from them.
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

  16. #91
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Our win last night marks another victory that I had not originally anticipated. With the win over the Nuggets we are now only 2 losses in the red towards my predictions. After the loss to the Wizards on their floor earlier in the year though (a game I deemed a must win), I'm definitely very leery about our game against Sacramento tomorrow. Hopefully we can keep our momentum going and pull out another W

    As it stands we are:

    3-1 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    3-1 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

  17. #92

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    I was actually surprised the Pacers won yesterday against the Nuggets. The Nuggets' bigs are a bit more athletic and play more aggressive than ours, but my boyz somehow pulled off the victory.

    The Pacers still haven't gained any ground on that elusive 8th seed, but hopefully they can finally win a few on the road then come back to the Fieldhouse and squeeze into the playoffs. They'll have a tough time off it these next eight games - Kings, Blazers (X2), Clippers, Jazz, Hawks, Mavs and Raptors - but I think they can go 5-3. Hopefully, that will be enough to move them to atleast the 9th position.

  18. #93
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Ultimately, the common thread is that the Pacers (since the new year began) are very good at home and very bad on the road.

    They're 13-2 at home since January 1st. They have 11 more home games left with 9 remaining on the road. The home games include some tough ones against some playoff level competition like Portland, San Antonio, Utah, and Dallas but the other 7 games are very winnable. Considering the Pacers have recently beat the Cavs, Magic, and Nuggets at home I think they might win 8 of those 11 home games (8-3).

    Of their 9 games on the road, they only playoff/winning teams they face are Portland and Atlanta (twice). Most 6 other games are against teams that are struggling or in Tank-mode. Best case scenario, remembering that the Pacers are terrible on the road, is that the Pacers win 5 of these games (5-4).

    That would mean the Pacers a record of 13-7 during the last 20 games of the season and would give them an overall record of 39-43. That might be good enough to squeak into the playoffs.
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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  19. #94

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    That would mean the Pacers a record of 13-7 during the last 20 games of the season and would give them an overall record of 39-43. That might be good enough to squeak into the playoffs.
    Doubtful.

    I think they need to go 15-5 the rest of the way. They'd stand a better chance of making the post-season if they ending the regular season at .500. Otherwise, they'd really be dependant on the basketball gods to give them alittle help with those teams above them falling out of the playoff picture, and I just don't see that happening (anymore than I see this team going 15-5, but stranger things have happened...)

  20. #95
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    It was a very inspiring win last night in Sacramento. One of our rare blow out victories of the season. Almost everyone that got on the floor contributed. You gotta love Deiner. That win puts us at just 2 victories away from reaching the Group A goal. A win tonight in Portland would be huge. I originally allotted for one loss to the Trailblazers so a win tonight can present a chance for us to claw back one of the two games we are behind in regards to my predictions.

    As it stands we are:

    4-1 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver(W), Sacramento(W), Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    4-1 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

  21. #96

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Although the Kings' roster has gone through it's share of changes over the last 4 yrs, they remained a tough team to beat until recently. I had my doubts the Pacers would sustain their 20-pt lead - or atleast maintain a double-digit lead - but they answered every Kings' rally and won going away.

    Very impressive victory.

    Sidenote: You gotta love the Kings' announcers. They had a lot of positive things to say about the Pacers. We don't get that from many of the opposing team's PR folks. It was nice to finally hear someone give this team credit away from their homecourt.

  22. #97
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by NuffSaid View Post
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    It was nice to finally hear someone give this team credit away from their homecourt.
    They haven't earned a lot of credit away from their homecourt. They've earned plenty on it.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

    -Lance Stephenson

  23. #98
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Iíve noticed people talking about the Pacers only being two games behind Milwaukee for the last playoff spot. However thereís a simpler barometer of where we are in relation to other teams. The lost column. We are behind five teams in that respect.

    Itís simple math, we have already lost more games than anyone else. Victories wonít help us make up ground, the other teams have to lose. For instant if we win 10 in a row and NJ wins ten in a row, we havenít gained anything. We need them to lose three games.

    Itís critical for us to win the games in the ĎTo playí column.

    Hereís the current standings with the Pacers having 19 games left to play.

    Team
    Lost
    Vs Pacers
    To play
    Comments
    New Jersey
    33
    1-2
    0
    We are three games behind NJ. However we won the season series, so we own the tie break.
    Milwaukee
    34
    2-1
    1
    We are two games behind Milwaukee. We play them one more time.
    Chicago
    34
    1-1
    2
    We are two games behind Chicago with two more to play. As of right now we have to win both to have the tiebreaker.
    Charlotte
    35
    2-1
    1
    One game behind with one game yet to play against them.
    New York
    35
    2-1
    0
    NY won season series and has the tie break. So we are really two games behind them.
    Indiana
    36
    ---
    -


  24. #99
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by count55 View Post
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    And this is why this analysis is not an Epic Fail.
    I agree. Fun thread to follow. Well fun in content here, crap in real world meaning. Don't believe me, how about this Group 2 result

    New York(2L),
    FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU************************** ******
    Man, that is just going to kick their chances in the ruts.


    Will's right unfortunately, basically what I've said to the more optimistic posts found elsewhere. You look at typical Last 10 records and MAYBE you see 7-3 or 3-7 in the middle grounds, but mostly you see 6-4 to 4-6.

    So realistically the Pacers can hope for a max gain at this point of perhaps 3-4 games on a team. That doesn't mean it can't be done, it just means it will be by the skin of their teeth if it is.


    Portland - yeah Phree, I think you need them to pull that out to balance the sheet. 2 more games vs the Blazers does not bode well for the final totals vs teams in Group 2.

  25. #100

    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The Bucks and Nets loss tonight. So, the Pacers can move up a game oif they beat the Blazers tonight. Here's hoping.

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