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Thread: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

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    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    At the start of the season most users of PD anticipated we would be a sub .500 team with others predicting we'd be right around .500 I'm sure you all would agree that this team definitely has the ability to be much better than our current record says. We have ran with the best in the league and beat the best on a coupel occasions. As it stands though half way through the season we are at 15-26. With how things have gone thus far, I for one would be very pleased if this team could finish .500 That would require us to go 26-15 the rest of the way. Let's take an in depth look at the remaining games on the schedule.

    I'll just start by naming all the teams that we will no longer play in the second half of the season:
    Golden State, Lakers, New Jersey, New Orleans, and Phoenix. Of those teams, if I look at the standings right now it appears Golden State is the only one that is not formidable. Not having to play the Lakers, Suns, or Hornets again is huge.

    Now for the teams we will only play once more. I will call these teams Group A: Houston, Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit. There are some very tough teams in that lineup. Off the surface it could be expected that we go 4-6 against those teams. I believe that we can go 6-4 with wins over Memphis, Sac-town, the Clippers, OKC, Detroit, and a win over either Houston or Dallas. Thus 6-4

    Next is the teams we play twice for the remainder of the season. I will call these teams Group B: San Antonio, Orlando, Miami, New York, Minnesota, Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and Atlanta. This obviously makes up the most daunting portion of our remaining schedule. There are some very tough teams in that group. Assuming we drop both games to the Spurs, Magic, and Cavs, that leaves 16 games up for grabs. I believe we will split games with the Blazers, Hawks, Heat, and Sixers. I don't see any reason why we can't win both games against the rest of the teams. That would leave us with a 12-10 record against those teams.

    Lastly is the teams we play three times. They will be called Group C. We only play Chicago, Charlotte, and Milwaukee three times for the remainder of the season. None of those teams are powerhouses, granted the season is only half over at this point and any of them could presumably catch fire. I may be thinking a little optimistic here but I don't see why we can't go 8-1 for those nine games with our only loss coming to the Bucks. All three of those teams are currently just a couple games ahead of us in the standings. If we can play the way we have against the elite teams in the league then we should have no problem disposing of these three teams.

    If all goes as I have predicted, our second half record would be 26-15; Group A: 6-4, Group B: 12-10, Group C: 8-1. I plan to keep an updated post on how we are doing against each of these teams as compared to my prediction. There could be instances where we beat some teams I did not expect and lose to some teams I planned on beating. But I believe that breaking the schedule down as I have above makes it appear a little less daunting to finish .500

    I invite you guys to please share your thoughts and opinions on how you believe we will fair against each group I have listed above (hence labeling them Group A, B and C to make it easier when discussing each group in your post). I'm sure each of you have your own spin on how you think we will finish and I just figured taking a look at the schedule as I have broken it down above makes for a more realistic prediciton.

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    Play McRoberts and Price! BRushWithDeath's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The .500 finish is slightly less likely than Barack Obama solving the economic crisis, ending world hunger, destroying terrorism, and building a better mouse trap all before the Pacers lose again tonight in San Antonio.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

    -Lance Stephenson

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    Member nerveghost's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    going 8-1 against group c is too optimistic. 5-4 at the most

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    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by nerveghost View Post
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    going 8-1 against group c is too optimistic. 5-4 at the most
    At this point in the season I would say that 5-4 probably would be realistic but looking at the final 4 weeks of the schedule we play Charlotte once, Chicago twice, and Milwaukee once. By the last 4 weeks of the season there should be a pretty well defined line between who has a chance at the post season and who is lottery bound. If one, two, or all three of those teams are lottery bound then we may be able to catch them at a time where they are resting their starters and tanking for a draft pick.

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    100 Miles from the B count55's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    As to reaching .500, we have a problem identifying the "should" wins. We've beaten and/or competed with Boston, LA, NO, and Houston, but lost to Char, GS, and the Clips. We've lost nailbiters to teams like NO, LAL, and Orl, but then barely squeaked by Sac's & NYK's. It's hard to put anything definitively in the win column.

    I doubt we'll reach .500, but if we can be at 20 wins at the end of this month (20-28), I'll think we still have a shot with favorable February & March schedules (SoS in the .460's). To get to 20 wins, we'd have to win the rest of our home games this month.

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    Play McRoberts and Price! BRushWithDeath's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by BRushWithDeath View Post
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    The .500 finish is slightly less likely than Barack Obama solving the economic crisis, ending world hunger, destroying terrorism, and building a better mouse trap all before the Pacers lose again tonight in San Antonio.
    Surely, after this home loss to Minnesota people will accept my earlier statement.

    (Which was on inauguration day if that wasn't obvious.)
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

    -Lance Stephenson

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    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The home loss to the Wolves certainly did suck. That brought me to my second inacurate prediction in as many games. This means that if we were to still finish .500 by the path I laid out then we will have to beat two teams now that I had not projected us to beat. We have Philly tomorrow and I originally said that we'd split the two games remaining agaisnt them this year. If we could pick up a win in their place tomorrow then we could make up some ground with another win over them after the all star break on our home floor.

    We have 7 more Group B games just in this month alone so considering that we can only lose 6 more games in that group, whatever our Group B record looks like at the end of the month will be a pretty good indication of wether or not we can finish .500

    As it stands we are:

    1-0 against Group A (6-4)
    1-4 against Group B (12-10)
    2-0 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    The schedule is incredibly easy the rest of the way. I always look at the tough road games. And after tonight they have one game at Orlando and one at Boston. Really that is it. I can't remember a schedule that is so lopsided. They have one short west coast trip to play Clips, Kings and a toughy at Portland. No more games in Texas. If they can improve their play by 5% (whatever that means) and win 50% of the close ones - I see no reason at all that they cannot go 23-18 or 22-19

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    The schedule is incredibly easy the rest of the way. I always look at the tough road games. And after tonight they have one game at Orlando and one at Boston. Really that is it. I can't remember a schedule that is so lopsided. They have one short west coast trip to play Clips, Kings and a toughy at Portland. No more games in Texas. If they can improve their play by 5% (whatever that means) and win 50% of the close ones - I see no reason at all that they cannot go 23-18 or 22-19
    Pacers went 21-19

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    PROUD 2 B A PACERS FAN! xtacy's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    the problem is that we have an inconsistent team that makes way too many mistakes. when this is the case you can't be sure about almost any games. this team can lose to kings,grizzlies,wolves even thunder or wizards and i definately wouldn't be surprised.

    to get to .500 we should also be able to win some extra games like the hornets game. normally we would lose to them but with west and chandler out and cp3's foul trouble we should win that game. but we couldn't.

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    Member larry's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by xtacy View Post
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    the problem is that we have an inconsistent team that makes way too many mistakes. when this is the case you can't be sure about almost any games. this team can lose to kings,grizzlies,wolves even thunder or wizards and i definately wouldn't be surprised.

    to get to .500 we should also be able to win some extra games like the hornets game. normally we would lose to them but with west and chandler out and cp3's foul trouble we should win that game. but we couldn't.
    Yeah I agree with you. We play teams like the Lakers down to the wire & win. We looked pretty good against the Hornets. This team plays better than you would think against upper level teams. They have letdowns which is a trait of a young team. I see a good future for us starting now though

    I guessed 41 wins, but that will be tough reading the schedule. Who really knows though? I'm just going to enjoy the ride.
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Hopefully one thing we all agree upon is that even if maybe you can see a path to .500 it would be a monster turnaround to actually follow that path. I'm ready to appreciate it, but I'm guessing I'll have to settle for something a little less ambitious to be happy about.

    My reason is what Count mentioned, I don't think you can really count on any wins or losses with this group based on opponent. It's almost more about what the Pacers are from night to night than the teams they play. They can make any team look good or bad.


    My goal for the team is to trade their worthless pick in this draft ASAP. Top 5, maybe, but after that you are going to need teams to make huge mistakes to avoid a non-factor pick. And I feel this way no matter how they finish because realistically they aren't going to lose enough to fall into a top 5 range pick.

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    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    As was to be expected, we lost to the Spurs last night. I had figured that we would lose both our matchups to the Spurs so this doesn't "ruin" the path I have laid out for us to reach .500.

    As it stands we are...

    0-0 against Group A (6-4)
    0-1 against Group B (12-10)
    0-0 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    If we beat the teams we're supposed to beat (the teams currently below us in the standings), then we will finish 8-32 for a 23-59 season.

    Do I think we'll finish that poorly? No. But I also think that 41-41 is wildy optimistic.

    30-52 seems about right.

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    Play McRoberts and Price! BRushWithDeath's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    If we win 35 I'd be shocked.

    The safe odds on a .500 finish is roughly 6,248,658,142,265 to 1.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

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    Administrator Roaming Gnome's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    As much as I want to believe... I have a hard time feeling we are suppose to beat anyone that's winning the same amount of games or a couple more. I remember hearing this same stuff when we went into that 11 game stretch in December that kicked off with Milwaukee. The schedule paned out for a bit with lighter competition, yet we went 5-6 with a 4 game losing streak. I know that we were injured, but such is life in the NBA.

    The bottom line is, we are not a good team. When you are a bad team, you don't get to look at the schedule circling the patsies of the league. Other teams are doing that for you.

    As Bill says, "You are what your record is, period!" With that said... I find it hard to rationally look ahead at the schedule and say we are going to be better then what we currently are.
    Last edited by Roaming Gnome; 01-21-2009 at 03:50 PM.
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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roaming Gnome View Post
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    As much as I want to believe... I have a hard time feeling we are suppose to beat anyone that's winning the same amount of games or a couple more. I remember hearing this same stuff when we went into that 11 game stretch in December that kicked off with Milwaukee. The schedule paned out for a bit with lighter competition, yet we went 5-6 with a 4 game losing streak. I know that we were injured, but such is life in the NBA.

    The bottom line is, we are not a good team. When you are a bad team, you don't get to look at the schedule circling the patsies of the league. Other teams are doing that for you.

    As Bill says, "You are what your record is, period!" With that said... I find it hard to rationally look ahead at the schedule and say we are going to be better then what we currently are.
    True - but I would rather play the T-Wolves at Conseco than the Lakers in LA. Does that guarantee we will beat the T-Wolves - No. But if we play Magic, Celtics, Lakers, Cavs and the Celtics again (which we did the first week of December) we might win 1 games. But if we play Sixers, Bobcats, T-Wolves, Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies in a row which we do in mid March - at worst we'll go 3-3. 3-3 is better than 1-4.

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    Administrator Roaming Gnome's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    True - but I would rather play the T-Wolves at Conseco than the Lakers in LA. Does that guarantee we will beat the T-Wolves - No. But if we play Magic, Celtics, Lakers, Cavs and the Celtics again (which we did the first week of December) we might win 1 games. But if we play Sixers, Bobcats, T-Wolves, Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies in a row which we do in mid March - at worst we'll go 3-3. 3-3 is better than 1-4.


    Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

    I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.
    Last edited by Roaming Gnome; 01-21-2009 at 04:09 PM.
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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roaming Gnome View Post
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    [/b]

    Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

    I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.
    No I got your point and sure this team can lose to any team no matter how bad. But if you are talking about an extended stretch of games chances are much greater that we'll beat the T-Wolves, Clips, Bobcats.....than beating the Celts, Cavs, Lakers, Magic.

    I guess we disagree

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    Member Alabama-Redneck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roaming Gnome View Post
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    [/b]

    Unless my point makes no sense.. I think you missed it.

    I just can't expect us to beat anyone... I feel that it's just as easy for us to go 2-4 or 1-5 over that stretch as it is for us to go 3-3 or over .500 against that stretch of teams.
    Not to be argumentative, I understand your point.

    What I do not understand is "if you expect the Pacers to get beat" why do you get so upset when they do ??

    I would rather be the hammer than the nail

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    Administrator Roaming Gnome's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama-Redneck View Post
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    Not to be argumentative, I understand your point.

    What I do not understand is "if you expect the Pacers to get beat" why do you get so upset when they do ??

    I didn't realize I got "noticeably" upset over our losses on this board. I know that I've been frustrated over somethings while we are losing, but I don't think I've been upset over losing like you're suggesting.

    Coming into this year, my expectations were as low as they've ever been for this team because I truly expected this year to be treated as a rebuilding year from the coaching staff up to ownership. I'm not upset over losses in a rebuilding effort, I'm upset over the path chosen to develop our youth. I'm upset that this coaching staff continues to attempt to shove this square peg thru the round hole that is considered our defensive system. I won't blame the system, like UB says, but it gets hard not to notice this system isn't working for the players that we have.

    I'll end this rant and just say that I think your wrong if you think I'm getting upset over losing games. That's not why I'm upset. Rebuilds lose games.
    ...Still "flying casual"
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    Get well PG! QuickRelease's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.

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    Play McRoberts and Price! BRushWithDeath's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuickRelease View Post
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    I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.
    That's fine in the NFL were they play once a week and practice 4 days a week. In the NBA a team is lucky to get 4 practices a month. Young players have to play in this league.
    "I had to take her down like Chris Brown."

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    Banned Jonathan's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    It will be very interesting to see what the Raptors do down the stretch. They are not in the playoffs right now. Do they tank for a better draft pick or make a trade and get into the playoffs.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    Quote Originally Posted by QuickRelease View Post
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    I think the path to develop our young players isn't necessarily to force feed them minutes, which I'm fine with. I think the Aaron Rogers approach works best. Don't just hand them the reigns, but make them want it, and earn it. They'll be better for it in the long run. I think this year is about what you'd expect, with the exception of how inexplicably bad they've been on defense.
    Very well said

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