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Thread: The Colts' Chances

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    Default The Colts' Chances

    Obviously, things aren't perfect in Indy, but they certainly are better now than they were early on this season. The Colts sit in a somewhat unfamiliar position, that is second in the division to the surprisingly good Titans. The injury to Tom Brady seemingly opened the door for the Colts to waltz into not only the playoffs, but the Super Bowl. But, it's a slightly more difficult task. The league-leading Titans, Brett Favre-powered Jets, Big Ben's Steelers, and even the Patriots, led by Matt Cassel all stand in the way. Not to mention the long-shots, Buffalo, Miami, Baltimore, Chargers, and Broncos.

    So, now on a 5 game winning streak at 8-4, with 4 games against a fairly nice schedule that does include a rematch with Tennessee, and a inside track to the Wild Card, what do you think the Colts' prospects for the rest of the season look like? Will they make or miss the playoffs? Flourish or flounder? Will the defense be good enough or fall short again? Can they overcome the injuries and age?

    I think they have as good of a chance as anyone right now. The Titans can be beaten, Favre may be the best or worst player on the field any given day, and while the Pats can win in the regular season can they win in the playoffs?

    The Giants look like they're the best team goin', but you never know when they're shoot themselves in the foot (or leg).

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    Member jeffg-body's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    If we can get into the playoffs I think we are gonna be one of those teams no one would look forward to play. Once we get Big Bob back on defense we'll be ok. I am looking forward to that last game of the season against the Titans. Right now it looks like they would be in a position to rest their starters, but you never know what could happen.

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Long-term the D still concerns me a little, although it has improved somewhat. It would be nice to get Marvin and Manning clicking more if that's even possible anymore.

    The schedule is favorable so I would think we stand about as good a chance as anyone else in the AFC once the playoffs begin. If the Jets were to keep going at this rate, I'd think they're a major concern as far as stopping their potent offense.

    Final thought, with three seeming cupcakes on the horizon, got to be careful. Odds are those teams win a game or two over the last quarter of the season. We'd prefer not to be the victims.
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    Banned Jonathan's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    I am not a fan of Bob Sanders he does not play enough for me to think he is better than Troy Polamula. He is like Mike Brown a big time player who is often injured. I really think the Colts will get by either Cleveland or Cincy this year. One of these two teams will beat us. Jeff Saturday is out again and our offensive line is very young. The Colts also play at the level of their opponents this year we have not blown out anybody.

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    It seems the Colts are following their formula from 2006 when it comes to Sanders and the run D. Just get him healthy and make the playoffs. Worked out pretty good last time.

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan View Post
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    ...we have not blown out anybody.
    Not true. Laughed Baltimore out of the building. The same Baltimore that would be in the playoffs if they started today. And what is wrong with playing to your oppenents level when your opponents include Pitt and NE?

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    We need to run the ball better
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Banned Jonathan's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by travmil View Post
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    Not true. Laughed Baltimore out of the building. The same Baltimore that would be in the playoffs if they started today. And what is wrong with playing to your oppenents level when your opponents include Pitt and NE?
    Nothing is wrong with playing New England N Pitt @ their level. It becomes a problem when you face Cleveland, Detroit, & Cincy. I think Baltimore will develop more as Flaco develops. My good friend Ravensdale did not consider the Ravens game a blow out

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Suaveness View Post
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    We need to run the ball better

    That is how you win on the road in the playoffs as well.

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by Suaveness View Post
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    We need to run the ball better
    This is certainly primary among my concerns as well. Normally we're able to get the tough yards when we need to, as well as establish Joe and Dom as a serious threat for a big play on everyplay. It's why our play-action works so well.

    For whatever reason, mostly because the injuries to the offensive line, we haven't been able to consistently run the ball well. We've had one game with a 100 yard rusher. That's just sad. But, the more troubling thing is situations like today in Cleveland, when we can't punch it in from the 6-inch line, or fail on a 3-and-1 while trying to close out a game in the last two minutes. Those are the times we REALLY have to be able to run, and not doing it today against Cleveland made me wonder.

    Granted, Jeff Saturday will probably be back in time for the playoffs, and hopefully we'll be able to put together a solid line in the nick of time. If so, and if the suddenly healthy line suddenly produces in the run game, we're pretty well set for the playoffs.

    The defense has been atrocious at times, and so frustrating when they can't get a stop on 3rd down. But, they have been "good enough" most of the time, and even making some big, game-making plays. Freeney and Mathis have been playing at the top of their game, and Freddie K and Gary Brackett have been solid as usual, and Clint Session has been a pleasant surprise. The injuries to Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders have been the biggest blows. Though, Ratliff has filled in quite nicely at CB, and Mel Bullitt has been a MAN in place of Sanders. Everyone knows we're a different team with #21 on the field, so here's to hopin he's healthy come playoff time.

    They have to be careful not to cough up a real lousy game to finish out, and bring their A game to finish the year against Tennessee, but finishing on a win-streak certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.

    It's about getting better each week, and not peeking til the last game is played. I think they're on the right track, but they definitely have some wrinkles to iron out if Peyton wants to beat his little brother in The Big Game.

    --pizza
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    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    We're (read- Peyton) not patient enough in these grind it out games and waste possessions.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    The question is, are you prepared to play outside in bad weather and stuff an opponent's running game.

    If the season ended today, you would have to play in Denver, Tenessee, and Pittsburgh (or, God forbid, New York City).

    And what is wrong with playing to your oppenents level when your opponents include Pitt and NE?
    I think most observers agree that the Indianpolis game was the worst game Pittsburgh has played in a long time, with Ben giving the Colts a short field twice and Ike Taylor deflecting an interception into a long touchdown play.

    In 35 degrees and pouring rain, there was a big difference between yesterday's version of the Steelers and NE.

    Take away Vrabel's spectacular interception in the opening minutes (that led to a 14-yard touchdown drive), and that becomes a 33-3 game.

    You can only play against the schedule the league gives you, but whoever survives the schedule the AFC North has endured this year (and it may still be Baltimore) is going to be sufficiently tested to make a legit run, regardless of regular season record.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
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    Fat, Drunk and Stupid Lord Helmet's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoJ View Post
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    The question is, are you prepared to play outside in bad weather and stuff an opponent's running game.

    If the season ended today, you would have to play in Denver, Tenessee, and Pittsburgh (or, God forbid, New York City).



    I think most observers agree that the Indianpolis game was the worst game Pittsburgh has played in a long time, with Ben giving the Colts a short field twice and Ike Taylor deflecting an interception into a long touchdown play.

    In 35 degrees and pouring rain, there was a big difference between yesterday's version of the Steelers and NE.

    Take away Vrabel's spectacular interception in the opening minutes (that led to a 14-yard touchdown drive), and that becomes a 33-3 game.

    You can only play against the schedule the league gives you, but whoever survives the schedule the AFC North has endured this year (and it may still be Baltimore) is going to be sufficiently tested to make a legit run, regardless of regular season record.
    It may have been one of the worst games Pittsburgh has played in a while, but I do think you have to give us some credit. We made some huge plays in that game, and the reason we won that game wasn't just because Ben playing terrible, IMO. Although it helped.

    What's up with all the, "If this happened or that didn't happen" talk? If Nick Harper knew how to run a ball all the way back and evade Mr. Statue then we win that 2006 AFC Divisional game against you guys, the problem is, is that it didn't happen and it doesn't really matter.
    Last edited by Lord Helmet; 12-01-2008 at 08:34 PM.
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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoJ View Post
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    Take away Vrabel's spectacular interception in the opening minutes (that led to a 14-yard touchdown drive), and that becomes a 33-3 game.
    Gotta call on ya here. In the Colts and Steelers game thread you wouldn't let us play the woulda shoulda coulda game so I'm not letting you play it here either. Unless you want to admit that the Colts were two Marvin Harrison fingernails away from beating the Steelers by 18, then that's another story. Seriously if you'd just give some credit where it's due anytime the Steelers lose you'd avoid a lot of this.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-01-2008 at 08:41 PM.

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by travmil View Post
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    Gotta call on ya here. In the Colts and Steelers game thread you wouldn't let us play the woulda shoulda coulda game so I'm not letting you play it here either. Unless you want to admit that the Colts were two Marvin Harrison fingernails away from beating the Steelers by 18, then that's another story.
    I don't remember the game thread. I was in a plane to Las Vegas during the game so I know I posted once a couple of days after the game and I don't recall exactly what but I'm sure it is the same theme - our offense gave up excellent field position too many times.

    I'm content beating NE 33-10 and realizing that the touchdown drive that kept it from being 33-3 was a 14-yarder set up by a bad read from our QB that has regressed in terms of ball protection this year. I'm just saying that we dominated that game by more than the 33-10 score would indicate.

    I'll just say it this way, the two short touchdown drives for the Colts of 32 and 30 yards were gifts from Roethlesberger. Other than the 56-yard drive at the start of the third quarter that led to a FG, I don't believe you had consecutive first downs at any other drive during the game.

    If I wasn't clear, our biggest weakness this year is our OL, and the strength of your defense is pressuring the QB, so you clearly took advantage of that and Ben was in the midst of a "what the hell is he thinking" slump at that time. Since then, he has been working on throwing the ball away, instead of into traffic.

    You took advantage of the the field position we gave you. When you didn't have field position, you punted a lot.

    Seriously if you'd just give some credit where it's due anytime the Steelers lose you'd avoid a lot of this.
    I don't mind it. If I had a nickle for every time I've heard about Kordell Stewart or a last-minute hail mary pass, I'd be a rich man. I don't mind turning this around, especially over a little regular season game.

    But underneath it is actually a worthwhile debate. The unmovable defense and the high-octage offense had a showdown, and with the exception of one dropped interception-turned into a touchdown, the unmovable defense did its job of forcing punts but could not overcome the atrocious field position it was challenged with.

    My question for this thread is: can you expect the same field position again?

    By the way, kudos for figuring out the best percentage way to win a game in ugly weather last Sunday with a defensive touchdown.

    The whole point for this thread is - how confident are you that your defense can score points or set up terrific field position in ugly wet cold weather when your high octane offense can't move the ball? Maybe you can, maybe you can't. I don't know. I do know that I'm pretty confident that my team can play excellent defense in January - but first they have to deal with a pretty difficult December schedule to get there and our weak OL may still haunt us.

    If you think they can, you should have confidence in your team's chances.

    You're focusing on my "Jay loves the Steelers" persona, which makes me chuckle, but ignoring the message. Looking to how you played against other teams is probably not a good measuring stick. SD and Cleveland were apparently vastly overrated by everyone at the beginning of the season (and Tennessee was underrated.) NE has injury problems and is very inconsistent. The Steelers stunk up the stadium that day. You get credit for figuring out how to win close games but you should be concerned about who you are playing close games against (instead of blowing them out.)

    By the way, the same criticisms apply to the Steelers lack of quality wins. We couldn't blow out SD or the Colts, our best quality win is probably Washington and they aren't likely to be in the playoffs. Sure, we've blown out the Bengals twice and the Texans, and its nice to be 9-3 against the most difficult schedule any NFL team has faced since 1978, but I fear we aren't as good as our record indicates and if we aren't 2-1 or better against our upcoming schedule of Dallas, Tennessee and Baltimore we could be in trouble.

    If Nick Harper knew how to run a ball all the way back and evade Mr. Statue then we win that 2006 AFC Divisional game against you guys, the problem is, is that it didn't happen and it doesn't really matter.
    What was I saying about a nickel?

    What if Bettis doesn't fumble for the first time all season, we go up 28-18 or kick a FG and lead 24-18 with even less time on the clock (not to mention that the NFL has admitted to blowing the call on the replay of Troy's interecption that technically stopped the touchdown drive that occurred with the Steelers leading 21-10.) Hmmmm... we can all play that game.

    You are right that it doesn't matter to the outcome. You are missing the point I'm making if you dismiss it - ironically - because a Steelers fan has the audacity to give a little bit of "what if this happened?" right back to the Colts fans. 14 years (or whatever it is) later, I thought you guys would have thick enough skin to realize that of course the what-if doesn't change anything and yes, I'm just being whiny about a loss to a team that I believe the Steelers can beat six times out of ten.



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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Fine. By your logic, we DOMINATED the Steelers in their own building since Marvin dropped two sure touchdowns. I mean since we are actually basing the outcome of games on things that DIDN'T HAPPEN and all I don't see the problem with that. As for the field postion, you don't know what will happen. Who's to say that the Colts don't get EVEN BETTER field position in any rematches they might encounter?

    I'm really tired of this game. Justify a loss however you feel it necessary and predict Steeler domination in any rematch.

  17. #17

    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    I'd rather the Steelers lose and not make the playoffs. Pretty please? They're the only team that I believe we'd struggle with.
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Administrator/ The Real Jay ChicagoJ's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by travmil View Post
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    Who's to say that the Colts don't get EVEN BETTER field position in any rematches they might encounter?
    They might. We gave NE the ball on the 14 last week, and we tried really hard to fumble the opening kickoff back to them inside the 20 just a couple plays before that.

    Is this a fair trade:

    Colts fans can quit the "What if" with the 1994 and 2005 playoff games, and I'll quit the "what if" with the 2005 and 2008 regular season games.

    Fair? Because if your fellow Colts fans are going to dish out the what-if game year after year then I think you collectively should able to take it when it comes back around.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  19. #19
    Member indytoad's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    This conversation reminds me of the mindset of a lot of Colts fans before the playoff game against the Chargers last year. In the regular season, so many things had to go wrong against the Colts for the Chargers to even squeak out a win at home - what chance did they have at the dome?

    Of course the Chargers won. When you have two relatively evenly-matched teams, every game plays out completely differently. This is especially so in football, where tiny things can change the outcome so easily, so playing the "Well, next time Peyton won't throw six interceptions and everything else will play out exactly the same, so we'll win" game doesn't usually work, for either side.

  20. #20

    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Well, with reagrd to Pitt-NE on Sunday, I would say you can take away the muffed kickoff return by Slater (he was only in the game because Hobbs was on the sideline throwing up with the flu) and even the missed 27-yard chip-shot field goal and then you have a 13-13 game.

    At that point New England can continue to run the ball at 6.1 yards per carry (more than double what anyone else has achieved vs. the Steelers, I think) and not be forced to pass every down, and the sacks/fumbles and INTs that led directly to the last 20 point the Steelers scored don't happen.

    My point is not that the Steelers didn't deserve to win, but that what-ifs are crap. Game-changing plays can cause a snowball effect and radically move the course of the game. At halftime I thought the Pats were in good shape. Until the muffed KO return they were as much in control of the game as was Pittsburgh.

    final stats: 19 first downs each, yardage disparity 333-267; these don't reflect a "domination by more than the 33-10 score would indicate."

    5 turnovers will kill you.

    The special teams one caused a snowball effect that led to the rout.

    I for one would love to see a playoff rematch in Pittsburgh with Ty Warren and Adalius Thomas both back in the lineup and Randy Moss not dropping what were (for him) easy catches.

    but what-ifs on my part are equally worthless.

    A win is a win, a loss is a loss. 33-10 didn't help you more than 6-3 or 48-47.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 12-03-2008 at 01:23 PM.

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    Administrator/ The Real Jay ChicagoJ's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Quote Originally Posted by pacertom View Post
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    final stats: 19 first downs each, yardage disparity 333-267; these don't reflect a "domination by more than the 33-10 score would indicate."
    You're right - I should have said "second half".

    At halftime I thought the Pats were in good shape.
    So did I. In fact, I was saying that if our defense can't create some points for us, that we were in trouble.

    I for one would love to see a playoff rematch in Pittsburgh with Ty Warren and Adalius Thomas both back in the lineup and Randy Moss not dropping what were (for him) easy catches.
    Bryant McFadden and Brett Kiesel will be back by then as well, so our defense should be better than its been the past few weeks. Bring it on. As for all of Nate Washington's drops, well, I hear he'll be available to the highest bidder in a few months.



    PS, Sorry Tom (and Moses), I didn't necessarily mean to bring you into my calculated "what-if" rampage. Just trying to make a point after all of these years that somehow still seems to be lost in people actually reading what follows the "what if" lead-in.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  22. #22

    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    with regard to the Colt's chances, here is a really interesting website that does game simulations. It says the Colts have an 86% or 95% chance of making the playoffs, depending upon how you do the calculations.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

    Click on any team and it gives you the playoff odds, odds if they do go 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, etc.

    There are two ways the odds are calculated- one called 50/50 in which each game is considered a coin toss. In that scenario, the odds are 30.4% for the Patriots to make the playoffs, but a 97.7% chance if they go 4-0 from now on, and a respectable 72.9% chance if they go 3-1.

    The other way of calculation, called weighted (click at the top) takes into account home/away, strength of opponent, recent game trends, etc. and is probably more accurate. The Patriots are apparently badly hurt by the easy schedules of many of the teams they are in competition with for playoff spots. The overall odds drop to 18.7%, and "only" an 81.9% chance of making the playoffs even with a 4-0 finish.

    It makes you sick to compare the odds with top teams in awful divisions like Denver and Arizona.

    It's also revealing to see how much one loss can hurt- the Pats playoff odds dropped from 47% to 19% due to the Pittsburgh game alone.

    very interesting site-- has NBA data too.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 12-03-2008 at 04:41 PM.

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    Jay, I'm curious, did the Steelers dominate the Cowgirls or did Romo give it to them with the short field in the 4th quarter? Personally, I think Romo gave it away the same way Ben did against the Colts. Credit where it's due right?

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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    I watched it - Cowboys dominated the 3rd quarter, Steelers the 4th. Romo didn't give 'em a short field, it was a pick-6.

    Basically, whichever team had the wind won that quarter. Would have been an interesting coin toss - I think it might have bucked the usual thinking and a team would have chosen the end to defend rather than taking the ball.
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Colts' Chances

    I'm just trying to see if Jay thinks the Steelers D dominated or if Romo played bad. He thought Ben played bad in the Colts loss and wouldn't give our guys any credit for making the plays they had to to win the game. I'm just trying to see if he will look at his own guys with the same critical eye he sees the Colts with.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-08-2008 at 04:03 PM.

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