The draft threads are coming quicker now as we get closer to the draft. The 11th player profiled in this series is Texas A&M big man DeAndre Jordan.
Jordan has been on the radar for quite a while in this state, as he was recruited heavily by Indiana University, before finally deciding to stay in his native state of Texas to play for Texas A&M under Billy Gillespie. Unfortunately for Jordan, Gillespie bolted for the bluegrass of Kentucky, and the Aggies hired a coach in Mark Turgeon that is more of a perimeter based guy. I think that change more than any other hurt Jordan's development this past season, as he and Coach Turgeon just never meshed well. That is probably one of the major reasons Jordan is entering the draft, even though he clearly isn't ready yet.
When evaluating Jordan, you are really trying to read tea leaves more than anything else. You simply have to imagine the player he could become, instead of the player that he currently is. At this moment, Jordan isn't anywhere close to being able to help an NBA team, and will likely be a developmental league type of player to begin with.
On draft night, Jay Bilas from ESPN may set a record for using the word "upside" when describing Jordan. DeAndre more than anything just LOOKS like a great player would look, even though he has none of the skills necessary at this time to actually BE great. Where he should be staying in college and learning his craft, instead he will be riding pine in the NBA or in minor league cities in the southern United States.
Jordan has a great potential NBA body. He has gigantic wingspan, runs the floor like a gazelle when he wants to, is explosive as a leaper, and is quicker for his size than any other player in the draft. He has good hands, and can catch the ball in traffic. He shows a softer shooting touch around the bucket, and has a nice little basic jump hook he shows occasionally, pretty much always turning to his left shoulder, shooting it right handed while holding his defender off with his left hand. You can clearly see where Jordan has promise offensively, but is still totally a project. His free throw shooting form is beyond horrible, as he looks like he is shooting a bowling ball instead of a basketball. I heard Bill Raftery suggest in a radio broadcast that players needed hard hats when they lined up along the lane for a free throw and Jordan was shooting. Raw is the only word you can use fo rnow, who knows what he may be 5 years from now?
As a passer, the only way to describe Jordan is "terrible." It is hard to say exactly which is worse: His awareness of what defenders are doing to him, his alertness of where his open teammates are, his actual fundamental passing techniques, or just a total unwillingness to pass in the first place. As an evaluator, you'd like to see Jordan only have one or 2 of those characteristics, but instead he has them all. If a player has a willingness to pass, but struggles making accurate and strong passes, you can coach that up. If a player wants to pass, but doesn't recognize situations well, you can coach that up. If a player can be a good passer but doesn't want to be, you can solve that problem too. Solving all of his problems is going to be a challenge.
DeAndre also has that terrible word POTENTIAL stamped across him on the defensive end. Because he is so incredibly "long" (another Jay Bilas draft night word we will be hearing alot) you can easily see that once Jordan figures out what he is doing out there, that he may end up being a plus as a weakside shotblocker. Right now he has no clue of where to be defensively, as his awareness is about as bad as you'll ever see in a lottery projected player, but he COULD develop into a good defender in time, we just can't tell yet. As of right now, he is a negative defender because his teammates can't rely on him to be in the right place, and he sometimes pouts (like all immature kids do) when things don't go well.
Jordan is a really good rebounder, and I project him to be almost a rebounding specialist early on in his career, as that is the part of the game where his awesome athleticism can help him the most. I don't think he plays with a great "nose for the ball" per se, I just think on film he is an incredible leaper, very quick off his feet, with a wingspan that reminds you of some sort of predatory animal. I bet Jordan really looks good in the old "Mikan" drill so many of us coaches still run in practice occasionally.
At this point, Jordan will be about the weakest physically of any big man in the league. In short, he pretty much resembles a toothpick on the floor. He has almost zero lower body strength, so he gets pushed off the spot almost at will by average players. He has good hands and catches the ball well, but he is so weak that he can't always keep it once he has it. He can't post up, because even a little contact knocks him way off balance. Guys can score off him inside by just jumping into him, negating his length by overpowering him. He also has terrible footwork and balance, and is easily faked out by a more clever player.
Everyone who watches him knows he is raw, that is not in question. What will make or break Jordan and the teams in position to select him will be how his attitude and body develop over time. Right now, his body looks good and has scout's imaginations running wild with thoughts of the next Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum. But, he has work ethic and maturity questions all over him too, and no one can tell how a player will react once he becomes rich with his first contract. If he wants to become really really successful, I think if he ends up with the right team he can make it. However, it is just as likely that Jordan ends up being a major bust, perhaps one of the biggest busts of this draft, similar to Golden State's selection of Patrick O'Bryant or Detroit's selection of Darko Milecic. With Jordan's future almost being a crapshoot, the question is, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?
I personally have thought alot about this, as Jordan will likely be picked very near us, and many draft projections have him listed as our second our third possible choice. A few even have him as our pick in their mock draft. It is a tough call, because Jordan is a player who can get you fired for picking him, and also fired for not picking him, as is described accurately on draftexpress.
My personal feeling is that I would pass on Jordan if available at 11, and would go in another direction. I have all sorts of reasons why, some due to his own personality, and some due to my own opinions on what the Pacers traditionally do well as an organization.
Jordan had such a bad year at Texas A&M that it concerns me. I know attitude wise being an 18 yr old kid in a new environment is a big adjustment, but for a player you are going to give millions to, I'd like to see above average maturity, and with Jordan it just isn't there. I have major concerns about his ability to handle criticism, about his ability to handle the NBA lifestyle, about his work ethic and desire to improve his game, and whether he truly wants to be a great player, instead of just a guy who collects a check. It bothers me greatly that he did not get along well at all with Coach Turgeon, who is regarded as one of the better coaches in the country. It bothers me that his foul shooting is so pitiful, since in many cases that is a indicator of not working hard at your game. (not every case obviously, but I don't look at Jordan and think of Shaq or Wilt, do you?)
This is all psychoanalysis now, and away from my pure basic basketball way of thinking, but when I watched Jordan play this season, one huge thing I thought was missing from his repotoire was JOY OF PLAYING. I just didn't see a kid who enjoyed playing basketball, who enjoyed the attention and notoriety of being a big time player. He looked like a sourpuss to me, and a player who had an unhappiness about him that rubbed off no doubt on his teammates, and which probably rubbed their new staff the wrong way in College Station Texas. That really bothered me...I thought he seemed mentally weak, and didnt handle the challenge of playing against better competition well. I don't see the hunger, the burning desire to be great. I freely admit this could all be crap, because I don't know the kid personally obviously, and making decisions like this by watching tape is a major mistake I know. It is interaction with teammates and personality traits that you have to study in person, not on DVD while sitting taking notes. It is why scouting is an art, not a science. I would assume the entire league is basing their opinion of Jordan on factors like these however, using personality tests and interviews with his background and past to determine whether he is worth the investment. Great players show more self confidence and more swagger than Jordan does to me, but am I right or wrong? Who knows?
In many ways, I think drafting Jordan might be like buying a brand new car. While somebody is going to do it, you might be better of to wait and buy it later, after the initial depreciation happens. Jordan looks like a player to me that will struggle badly early, show some potential attitude and adjustment problems, and reach the end of his rookie contract either ready to flame out of the league, or ready to bust out and become a beast. We might be better off seeing which way he goes before investing our hopes, dreams, cash, and #11 pick in him, which is too valuable to waste for a team in our situation.
If we were a better franchise, with a couple of championships in our past and recent success of developing a big player well, I might feel differently. But we have too many holes and too many weaknesses I think to push all of our chips to the middle and select Jordan....I think our current state of our roster demands a safer pick. If we do select Jordan, we will need to bring back a mentor type of player for him to almost be his babysitter for a while, and no, Sam Perkins isn't it. We don't have a great big man coach at all in Indianapolis, and I don't trust our franchise to be one that can grow Jordan to be the beast that he might end up being.
I personally hope Jordan goes ahead of us to New Jersey, so we don't have to make that decision as a franchise. My opinion is that they will select him at #10 and see what happens, leaving us to be able to select someone else for more immediate help.
I can't think of a really good comparable to Jordan in the 80's or 90's, because many players like him didnt make teams back then. Of course, back then he would have stayed in college 4 years, making that last statement moot.
Modern day players who he reminds me of potentially are Tyson Chandler and Nene, which I suppose are better players than I think Jordan will end up being. I think Jordan looks more like Saer Sene, who the Sonics gambled on and likely lost with a few years ago.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
Jordan has been on the radar for quite a while in this state, as he was recruited heavily by Indiana University, before finally deciding to stay in his native state of Texas to play for Texas A&M under Billy Gillespie. Unfortunately for Jordan, Gillespie bolted for the bluegrass of Kentucky, and the Aggies hired a coach in Mark Turgeon that is more of a perimeter based guy. I think that change more than any other hurt Jordan's development this past season, as he and Coach Turgeon just never meshed well. That is probably one of the major reasons Jordan is entering the draft, even though he clearly isn't ready yet.
When evaluating Jordan, you are really trying to read tea leaves more than anything else. You simply have to imagine the player he could become, instead of the player that he currently is. At this moment, Jordan isn't anywhere close to being able to help an NBA team, and will likely be a developmental league type of player to begin with.
On draft night, Jay Bilas from ESPN may set a record for using the word "upside" when describing Jordan. DeAndre more than anything just LOOKS like a great player would look, even though he has none of the skills necessary at this time to actually BE great. Where he should be staying in college and learning his craft, instead he will be riding pine in the NBA or in minor league cities in the southern United States.
Jordan has a great potential NBA body. He has gigantic wingspan, runs the floor like a gazelle when he wants to, is explosive as a leaper, and is quicker for his size than any other player in the draft. He has good hands, and can catch the ball in traffic. He shows a softer shooting touch around the bucket, and has a nice little basic jump hook he shows occasionally, pretty much always turning to his left shoulder, shooting it right handed while holding his defender off with his left hand. You can clearly see where Jordan has promise offensively, but is still totally a project. His free throw shooting form is beyond horrible, as he looks like he is shooting a bowling ball instead of a basketball. I heard Bill Raftery suggest in a radio broadcast that players needed hard hats when they lined up along the lane for a free throw and Jordan was shooting. Raw is the only word you can use fo rnow, who knows what he may be 5 years from now?
As a passer, the only way to describe Jordan is "terrible." It is hard to say exactly which is worse: His awareness of what defenders are doing to him, his alertness of where his open teammates are, his actual fundamental passing techniques, or just a total unwillingness to pass in the first place. As an evaluator, you'd like to see Jordan only have one or 2 of those characteristics, but instead he has them all. If a player has a willingness to pass, but struggles making accurate and strong passes, you can coach that up. If a player wants to pass, but doesn't recognize situations well, you can coach that up. If a player can be a good passer but doesn't want to be, you can solve that problem too. Solving all of his problems is going to be a challenge.
DeAndre also has that terrible word POTENTIAL stamped across him on the defensive end. Because he is so incredibly "long" (another Jay Bilas draft night word we will be hearing alot) you can easily see that once Jordan figures out what he is doing out there, that he may end up being a plus as a weakside shotblocker. Right now he has no clue of where to be defensively, as his awareness is about as bad as you'll ever see in a lottery projected player, but he COULD develop into a good defender in time, we just can't tell yet. As of right now, he is a negative defender because his teammates can't rely on him to be in the right place, and he sometimes pouts (like all immature kids do) when things don't go well.
Jordan is a really good rebounder, and I project him to be almost a rebounding specialist early on in his career, as that is the part of the game where his awesome athleticism can help him the most. I don't think he plays with a great "nose for the ball" per se, I just think on film he is an incredible leaper, very quick off his feet, with a wingspan that reminds you of some sort of predatory animal. I bet Jordan really looks good in the old "Mikan" drill so many of us coaches still run in practice occasionally.
At this point, Jordan will be about the weakest physically of any big man in the league. In short, he pretty much resembles a toothpick on the floor. He has almost zero lower body strength, so he gets pushed off the spot almost at will by average players. He has good hands and catches the ball well, but he is so weak that he can't always keep it once he has it. He can't post up, because even a little contact knocks him way off balance. Guys can score off him inside by just jumping into him, negating his length by overpowering him. He also has terrible footwork and balance, and is easily faked out by a more clever player.
Everyone who watches him knows he is raw, that is not in question. What will make or break Jordan and the teams in position to select him will be how his attitude and body develop over time. Right now, his body looks good and has scout's imaginations running wild with thoughts of the next Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum. But, he has work ethic and maturity questions all over him too, and no one can tell how a player will react once he becomes rich with his first contract. If he wants to become really really successful, I think if he ends up with the right team he can make it. However, it is just as likely that Jordan ends up being a major bust, perhaps one of the biggest busts of this draft, similar to Golden State's selection of Patrick O'Bryant or Detroit's selection of Darko Milecic. With Jordan's future almost being a crapshoot, the question is, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk?
I personally have thought alot about this, as Jordan will likely be picked very near us, and many draft projections have him listed as our second our third possible choice. A few even have him as our pick in their mock draft. It is a tough call, because Jordan is a player who can get you fired for picking him, and also fired for not picking him, as is described accurately on draftexpress.
My personal feeling is that I would pass on Jordan if available at 11, and would go in another direction. I have all sorts of reasons why, some due to his own personality, and some due to my own opinions on what the Pacers traditionally do well as an organization.
Jordan had such a bad year at Texas A&M that it concerns me. I know attitude wise being an 18 yr old kid in a new environment is a big adjustment, but for a player you are going to give millions to, I'd like to see above average maturity, and with Jordan it just isn't there. I have major concerns about his ability to handle criticism, about his ability to handle the NBA lifestyle, about his work ethic and desire to improve his game, and whether he truly wants to be a great player, instead of just a guy who collects a check. It bothers me greatly that he did not get along well at all with Coach Turgeon, who is regarded as one of the better coaches in the country. It bothers me that his foul shooting is so pitiful, since in many cases that is a indicator of not working hard at your game. (not every case obviously, but I don't look at Jordan and think of Shaq or Wilt, do you?)
This is all psychoanalysis now, and away from my pure basic basketball way of thinking, but when I watched Jordan play this season, one huge thing I thought was missing from his repotoire was JOY OF PLAYING. I just didn't see a kid who enjoyed playing basketball, who enjoyed the attention and notoriety of being a big time player. He looked like a sourpuss to me, and a player who had an unhappiness about him that rubbed off no doubt on his teammates, and which probably rubbed their new staff the wrong way in College Station Texas. That really bothered me...I thought he seemed mentally weak, and didnt handle the challenge of playing against better competition well. I don't see the hunger, the burning desire to be great. I freely admit this could all be crap, because I don't know the kid personally obviously, and making decisions like this by watching tape is a major mistake I know. It is interaction with teammates and personality traits that you have to study in person, not on DVD while sitting taking notes. It is why scouting is an art, not a science. I would assume the entire league is basing their opinion of Jordan on factors like these however, using personality tests and interviews with his background and past to determine whether he is worth the investment. Great players show more self confidence and more swagger than Jordan does to me, but am I right or wrong? Who knows?
In many ways, I think drafting Jordan might be like buying a brand new car. While somebody is going to do it, you might be better of to wait and buy it later, after the initial depreciation happens. Jordan looks like a player to me that will struggle badly early, show some potential attitude and adjustment problems, and reach the end of his rookie contract either ready to flame out of the league, or ready to bust out and become a beast. We might be better off seeing which way he goes before investing our hopes, dreams, cash, and #11 pick in him, which is too valuable to waste for a team in our situation.
If we were a better franchise, with a couple of championships in our past and recent success of developing a big player well, I might feel differently. But we have too many holes and too many weaknesses I think to push all of our chips to the middle and select Jordan....I think our current state of our roster demands a safer pick. If we do select Jordan, we will need to bring back a mentor type of player for him to almost be his babysitter for a while, and no, Sam Perkins isn't it. We don't have a great big man coach at all in Indianapolis, and I don't trust our franchise to be one that can grow Jordan to be the beast that he might end up being.
I personally hope Jordan goes ahead of us to New Jersey, so we don't have to make that decision as a franchise. My opinion is that they will select him at #10 and see what happens, leaving us to be able to select someone else for more immediate help.
I can't think of a really good comparable to Jordan in the 80's or 90's, because many players like him didnt make teams back then. Of course, back then he would have stayed in college 4 years, making that last statement moot.
Modern day players who he reminds me of potentially are Tyson Chandler and Nene, which I suppose are better players than I think Jordan will end up being. I think Jordan looks more like Saer Sene, who the Sonics gambled on and likely lost with a few years ago.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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