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Thread: Top 5 Picks

  1. #1
    Member OakMoses's Avatar
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    Default Top 5 Picks

    How often are top five draft picks actually "franchise" players?

    Let's look at some drafts. It's too early to tell with the last two or three drafts, but we can start with 2006 anyway. Here's the draft year, top 5 picks, and the number of "franchise-type" players in the group.

    2006 - Bargnani, Aldridge, Morrison, Thomas, Williams - 0
    2005 - Bogut, M. Williams, D. Williams, Paul, Felton - 2
    2004 - Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Livingston, Harris - 1
    2003 - James, Milicic, Anthony, Bosh, Wade - 4
    2002 - Ming, Williams, Dunleavy, Gooden, Skita - 1
    2001 - Brown, Chandler, Gasol, Curry, Richardson - 1
    2000 - Martin, Swift, Miles, Fizer, Miller - 0
    1999 - Brand, Francis, Davis, Odom, Bender - 2 (Brand, Davis)
    1998 - Olowokandi, Bibby, LaFrentz, Jamison, Carter - 0
    1997 - Duncan, Van Horn, Billups, Daniels, Battie - 2
    1996 - Iverson, Camby, Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Allen - 1
    1995 - Smith, McDyess, Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett - 1
    1994 - Robinson, Kidd, Hill, Marshall, Howard - 1
    1993 - Webber, Bradley, Hardaway, Mashburn, Bradley - 1
    1992 - O'Neal, Mourning, Laettner, Jackson, Ellis - 2
    1991 - Johnson, Anderson, Owens, Mutombo, Smith - 1 (Mutombo)
    1990 - Coleman, Payton, Jackson, Scott, Gill - 1
    1989 - Ellison, Ferry, Elliot, Rice, Reid - 0
    1988 - Manning, Smith, Smits, Morris, Richmond - 1 (Manning)
    1987 - Robinson, Gilliam, Hopson, Williams, Pippen - 2
    1986 - Daugherty, Bias, Washburn, Person, Walker - 0

    That's 21 years of drafting, 105 picks, 24 franchise players, or 22.8% of top five picks that become franchise players.

    I'm sure there will be arguments of the arbitrary designation of "franchise" player. For me it came down to this: "Was this guy, or could this guy be, the best player on a contending team?" If the answer was yes, I gave them the benefit of the doubt.
    "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

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  2. #2
    Boom Baby! QuickRelease's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Who are you assigning franchise level status to from the 2001 draft?

    2001 - Brown, Chandler, Gasol, Curry, Richardson - 1

    Kwame-no
    Chandler -nice player, but franchise? no
    Gasol-not really. He's excellent in LA as a #2
    Eddie Curry-no
    J-Rich-no

  3. #3
    Yeah, I'm a Pacers fan. MyFavMartin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    I'd imagine if you just took a look at the top 2 picks, the % of franchise players increases, thereby suggesting #3-5 wouldn't be much better than #6-10.

    Opened yourself for a lot of criticism with the list, but I understand your point.

    I don't think that because you have a quality player from outside the top 5 though that means they won't be better than a top five pick. What gets me is people saying we should trade Danny cause he's not a top five pick. Well neither were Pierce (#10), Reggie Miller (#11), Dr. J (#12), Kobe (#13), Karl Malone (#13), Clyde Drexler (#14), Peja (#14), Shawne Kemp (#17), JO (#17), Josh Smith (#17), and David West (#18), Al Jefferson (#15), Steve Nash (#15), Ron Artest (#16), and Turkoglu (#16).

    Good article at: http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=3320375

    While doing this research, I found that Scottie Pippen was acquired by Chicago in a trade for Olden Polynice, which I might have known at some time in the past... but wow.

    Of course, we'll never forget the Sam Bowie over Jordan pick of 1984.

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    Member idioteque's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Dikembe Mutumbo a franchise player? A great player to have on your team even now, yes, but you wouldn't want him to be the best player on your team, either.

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    Member Speed's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Que Croz24.

  6. #6
    Boom Baby! QuickRelease's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    Que Croz24.

  7. #7
    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    We need to define what a 'Franchise Player" is so everyone can more or less get on the same page. Wikipedia defines it this way.

    Franchise Player is a modern term used in sports to describe an athlete who is not simply the best player on their team, but a player that the team can build their franchise around for the foreseeable future.

    Does anyone have a source for any other definitions that aren't there own?

    I specified 'not the posters own' because we need to get on the same page, and having 300 posters with their own definition of a word just leads to semantical arguments.

  8. #8
    Member OakMoses's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    I can agree with not labeling Gasol and Mutombo as franchise players. I decided to err on the side of too many rather than too few.

    Gasol was by far the best player on some pretty good Grizzly teams. They got swept in the playoffs every year though, so you can't really call them contenders.

    The point, of course, is to point out that top five picks, much more often than not, do not turn around the fortunes of franchises.
    "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

    - Salman Rushdie

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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Mutombo is a franchise player, but Carter or Jamison is not? You're gonna have a tough time selling me that one. Same goes for a guy like Gasol.

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
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  10. #10

    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    i question some of the players you have and haven't labeled as "franchise players". regardless, there are some damn good players in that list you didn't label as "franchise"...nobody ever said it was a guarantee that we'd find a franchise player with the top 5 pick. the only guarantee is that the pacers standing pat will result in even more mediocrity...do pacers fans realize that we've NEVER won an nba title using essentially the exact same philosophy since the 70s?

    you guys will come around. i was treated the same way when i was the first to say we needed to trade jalen, austin, and jo. it might take 2 more yrs, but eventually you'll agree. don't worry though, i won't require any apologies...

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    at least I know where the damn shift key is...
    hey hey hey, that was uncalled for...
    This is the darkest timeline.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by avoidingtheclowns View Post
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    hey hey hey, that was uncalled for...
    You're right, the guy just does a bunch different things that are bothersome/annoying to me - I'll delete it though. I may struggle this long offseason keeping focus.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    croz24-

    You're wasting your time and energy man. I'm not even sure that a
    plurality on this board would trade DG for Rose. If not, that oughta
    make it clear what you're up against.

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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Rajah Brown View Post
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    croz24-

    You're wasting your time and energy man. I'm not even sure that a
    plurality on this board would trade DG for Rose. If not, that oughta
    make it clear what you're up against.
    Let's find out.

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  15. #15

    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    this message board is too 'harmonious' in their opinions, especially for a team that doesn't win...it needs some attitude, much like the pacers...

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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    You're right, the guy just does a bunch different things that are bothersome/annoying to me - I'll delete it though. I may struggle this long offseason keeping focus.
    i'm fine with your other assessment. i just won't stand for anti-capitlization bigotry.
    This is the darkest timeline.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by avoidingtheclowns View Post
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    i'm fine with your other assessment. i just won't stand for anti-capitlization bigotry.
    Oh right, you mean shift-keyily challenged, sorry it's my upbringing, my Grandparents were way worse, that whole generation really.

  18. #18
    Member OakMoses's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by croz24 View Post
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    i question some of the players you have and haven't labeled as "franchise players". regardless, there are some damn good players in that list you didn't label as "franchise"...nobody ever said it was a guarantee that we'd find a franchise player with the top 5 pick. the only guarantee is that the pacers standing pat will result in even more mediocrity...do pacers fans realize that we've NEVER won an nba title using essentially the exact same philosophy since the 70s?
    Actually, I don't disagree with you. I have no problem with the team making a big move. If Bird, Simon, and Morway have an opportunity to trade Granger for a player they believe is going to be a star, I have no problems with that. Right now, however, if they had an offer to trade Granger for the #5 pick in the draft and they took it, I'd be upset because you have no idea who they'll get at #5. You make moves for players, not for picks.

    My point wasn't to argue over who's a franchise player and who's not, the point was to say that, even with all the time, money, and energy NBA teams invest in the draft, a top five pick does not guarantee you a future star any more than the #11 pick does. I'll guarantee you that there's an all-star caliber player who will be picked after pick #10 in this year's draft. We've just got to hope that he winds up going to us at pick #11.
    "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

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  19. #19
    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by mellifluous View Post
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    How often are top five draft picks actually "franchise" players?

    Let's look at some drafts. It's too early to tell with the last two or three drafts, but we can start with 2006 anyway. Here's the draft year, top 5 picks, and the number of "franchise-type" players in the group.

    2006 - Bargnani, Aldridge, Morrison, Thomas, Williams - 0
    2005 - Bogut, M. Williams, D. Williams, Paul, Felton - 2
    2004 - Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Livingston, Harris - 1
    2003 - James, Milicic, Anthony, Bosh, Wade - 4
    2002 - Ming, Williams, Dunleavy, Gooden, Skita - 1
    2001 - Brown, Chandler, Gasol, Curry, Richardson - 0
    2000 - Martin, Swift, Miles, Fizer, Miller - 0
    1999 - Brand, Francis, Davis, Odom, Bender - 0
    1998 - Olowokandi, Bibby, LaFrentz, Jamison, Carter - 0
    1997 - Duncan, Van Horn, Billups, Daniels, Battie - 1
    1996 - Iverson, Camby, Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Allen - 1
    1995 - Smith, McDyess, Stackhouse, Wallace, Garnett - 1
    1994 - Robinson, Kidd, Hill, Marshall, Howard - 1
    1993 - Webber, Bradley, Hardaway, Mashburn, Bradley - 0
    1992 - O'Neal, Mourning, Laettner, Jackson, Ellis - 1
    1991 - Johnson, Anderson, Owens, Mutombo, Smith - 0
    1990 - Coleman, Payton, Jackson, Scott, Gill - 0
    1989 - Ellison, Ferry, Elliot, Rice, Reid - 0
    1988 - Manning, Smith, Smits, Morris, Richmond - 0
    1987 - Robinson, Gilliam, Hopson, Williams, Pippen - 1
    1986 - Daugherty, Bias, Washburn, Person, Walker - 0

    That's 21 years of drafting, 105 picks, 24 franchise players, or 22.8% of top five picks that become franchise players.

    I'm sure there will be arguments of the arbitrary designation of "franchise" player. For me it came down to this: "Was this guy, or could this guy be, the best player on a contending team?" If the answer was yes, I gave them the benefit of the doubt.
    I went through and bolded the players I thought ended up being franchise palyers, not where they were when drafted. I almost took Kidd off the list since he has only been to the finals once and never won. I did remove Pippin from your group since he never won without Jordan. I find it really hard to lable a guy a "franchise" player if he has been traded, especially if he has been traded more than once.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by mellifluous View Post
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    Actually, I don't disagree with you. I have no problem with the team making a big move. If Bird, Simon, and Morway have an opportunity to trade Granger for a player they believe is going to be a star, I have no problems with that. Right now, however, if they had an offer to trade Granger for the #5 pick in the draft and they took it, I'd be upset because you have no idea who they'll get at #5. You make moves for players, not for picks.
    It kinda depends on who you're giving up and why.

    I could easily see giving up Daniels, Harrison and Williams for a decent PG or Center and/or a draft pick, but giving up Granger or Dunleavy straight-up for one, for example, wouldn't make any sense whatsoever. Bottom line, it a "player(s) for picks" trade is to happen w/the Pacers they should use their reserves and not their "core" players.

    My point wasn't to argue over who's a franchise player and who's not, the point was to say that, even with all the time, money, and energy NBA teams invest in the draft, a top five pick does not guarantee you a future star any more than the #11 pick does. I'll guarantee you that there's an all-star caliber player who will be picked after pick #10 in this year's draft. We've just got to hope that he winds up going to us at pick #11.
    'Nuff Said.

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    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Also would you really consider Danny Manning a franchise player? The dude averaged 14 PPG on his career.

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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Rather than arguing what a franchise player is, I'd look at drafts and add up the number of all-star game appearances over a given period for players picked at certain spots.

    Frex, since 1990 how many total all-star appearances have been from players selected 1-5 vs 6-10 vs 11-15 and so on.

    I'm too lazy to do that myself but if someone is REALLY bored . . .
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

  23. #23

    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    the reason i want a top 5 pickTHIS YEAR, is because i view this draft as being close to the same as the 2003 draft...there are at least FOUR legit instant impact, franchise players imo in this draft and i just want to get my hands on one of them...

  24. #24
    Thanks Kesty! Pig Nash's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    Alonzo Mourning was the best player on a lot of contending Heat teams, they could just never get past NY.

  25. #25
    Yeah, I'm a Pacers fan. MyFavMartin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top 5 Picks

    I'd add brand, kidd, baron, billups, and VC to your list of franshise players. I'm debating CWebb with myself. Tyra is a strong argument in the plus column.

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