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Thread: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    There's something else to consider:
    The goal of the Indiana Pacers in the Walsh era is to make the playoffs. Anything else is gravy but nothing must jeopardize that main and overriding goal of making the playoffs.

    If this team gets into the playoffs there will be a GIANT sigh of relief AND satisfaction coming from the ivory tower at Conseco.

    Making the playoffs in the east should NOT be considered 'satisfying'... but it would be.
    -Bball
    Whoa, kemosabe. This is EXACTLY what I'm afraid of!

    Making the playoffs would be a sigh of relief for Bird and Walsh.

    And that is exactly what the problem is. It would bring a sense of relief, and a tendancy toward a continued "tinkering" with the roster rather than the start of true rebuilding.

    If we miss the playoffs, that is the best means I know of to light a fire under the posteriors of Walsh and Bird and finally hit them squarely in their faces with a sense of urgency in making some real changes to the roster.

    I know what Will is saying in no appreciable difference between picking at #7 and #15. But I believe there is the perception of a potential huge difference in selecting at one over the other. Such a difference that a trade of #7 plus Tinsley for example for a higher pick in the draft has much more appeal than a trade of #15 plus Tinsley.

    What if such a trade could be made? Let's say for a #4 pick. Is that worthwhile?

    I'm a firm believer in stockpiling the best assets you can get your hands on. From my perspective, having #7 as an asset is significantly better than having #15. If nothing else, it gives you choices at #7 that #15 does not offer. At #15, you are dealing with what #7 thru #14 didn't take, even if the player is not appreciably worse than the earlier picks.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Larry Bird in my opinion is just too proud to do anything worth while. He doesn't want to rebuild because he is too proud. All he wants to do is "retool", "redecorate", and "refurbish." Well he can take that 're' crap and shove it up his butt if it doesn't end in 'build'. Like Bball, I think, mentioned not to long ago, I'm tired of mediocracy, I'm tired of just limping into the playoffs to be swept or just barely missing out and being rewarded with the 14th pick. yippee. Now I know I'm blaming this all on Larry, and it isn't all his fault. But his head is on the chopping block and he better take a long, hard look at this team.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kofi View Post
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    Here's some info on draft picks from 1994-2003 (10 drafts). I didn't include 2004 on since it's still too early for those players.


    ALL-STARS PICKED 1-5
    • Glenn Robinson (#1, 1994, x2)
    • Allen Iverson (#1, 1996, x8)
    • Tim Duncan (#1, 1997, x10)
    • Elton Brand (#1, 1999, x2)
    • Kenyon Martin (#1, 2000, x1)
    • Yao Ming (#1, 2002, x5)
    • LeBron James (#1, 2003, x4)
    • Jason Kidd (#2, 1994, x8)
    • Antonio McDyess (#2, 1995, x1)
    • Steve Francis (#2, 1999, x3)
    • Grant Hill (#3, 1994, x7)
    • Jerry Stackhouse (#3, 1995, x2)
    • Shareef Abdur-Rahim (#3, 1996, x1)
    • Chauncey Billups (#3, 1997, x3
    • Baron Davis (#3, 1999, x2)
    • Pau Gasol (#3, 2001, x1)
    • Carmelo Anthony (#3, 2003, x2)
    • Rasheed Wallace (#4, 1995, x4)
    • Stephon Marbury (#4, 1996, x2)
    • Antawn Jamison (#4, 1998, x2)
    • Chris Bosh (#4, 2003, x3)
    • Juwan Howard (#5, 1994, x1)
    • Kevin Garnett (#5, 1995, x11)
    • Ray Allen (#5, 1996, x7)
    • Vince Carter (#5, 1998, x8)
    • Dwyane Wade (#5, 2003, x4)
    All-Stars: 26/50 (52%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 104
    MVP Awards: 4 (Iverson, Duncan x2, Garnett)
    Finals MVP Awards: 5 (Duncan x3, Billups, Wade)
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 1 (Camby)
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards: 2 (M. Miller, Jamison)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: M. Dunleavy, T. Chandler, E. Curry, J. Richardson, M. Miller, L. Odom, M. Bibby, K. Van Horn, M. Camby



    ALL-STARS PICKED 6-10
    • Antoine Walker (#6, 1996, x3)
    • Wally Szczerbiak (#6, 1999, x1)
    • Richard Hamilton (#7, 1999, x3)
    • Tracy McGrady (#9, 1997, x7)
    • Dirk Nowitzki (#9, 1998, x7)
    • Shawn Marion (#9, 1999, x4)
    • Amare Stoudemire (#9, 2002, x3)
    • Eddie Jones (#10, 1994, x3)
    • Paul Pierce (#10, 1998, x6)
    • Joe Johnson (#10, 2001, x2)
    • Caron Butler (#10, 2002, x2)
    All-Stars: 11/50 (22%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 41
    MVP Awards: 1 (Nowitzki)
    Finals MVP Awards: 0
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 0
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards:
    Notable Non-All-Stars: C. Kaman, K. Hinrich, T.J. Ford, Nene, C. Wilcox, S. Battier, A. Miller, J. Terry, Jason Williams, L. Hughes, E. Dampier, D. Stoudemire



    ALL-STARS PICKED 11-15
    • Kobe Bryant (#13, 1996, x10)
    • Peja Stojakovic (#14, 1996, x3)
    • Steve Nash (#15, 1996, x5)
    All-Stars: 3/50 (6%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 18
    MVP Awards: 2 (Nash 2x)
    Finals MVP Awards: 0
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 0
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards: 1 (Williamson)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: R. Jefferson, T. Murphy, C. Maggette, B. Wells, M. Harpring, C. Williamson, B. Barry, J. Rose



    ALL-STARS PICKED 16-20
    • David West (#18, 2003, x1)
    • Jamaal Magloire (#19, 2000, x1)
    • Ron Artest (#16, 1999, x1)
    • Jermaine O'Neal (#17, 1996, x5)
    • Zydrunas Ilgauskas (#20, 1996, x2)
    • Theo Ratliff (#18, 1995, x1)
    All-Stars: 6/50 (12%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 11
    MVP Awards: 0
    Finals MVP Awards: 0
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 1 Artest)
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards: 1 (McKie)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: Z. Randolph, B. Haywood, H. Turkoglu, Q. Richardson, J. Posey, A. McKie



    ALL-STARS PICKED 21-25
    • Andrei Kirilenko (#24, 1999, x1)
    • Michael Finley (#21, 1995, x2)
    All-Stars: 2/50 (4%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 3
    MVP Awards: 0
    Finals MVP Awards: 0
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 0
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards: 1 (B. Jackson)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: B. Diaw, T. Outlaw, T. Prince, N. Krstic, G. Wallace, M. Peterson, J. Foster, R. Davis, A. Harrington, B. Jackson, D. Fisher



    ALL-STARS PICKED 26-30
    • Tony Parker (#28, 2001, x2)
    • Josh Howard (#29, 2003, x1)
    All-Stars: 2/50 (4%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 3
    MVP Awards: 0
    Finals MVP Awards: 1 (Parker)
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 0
    Sixth Man of the Year Awards: 1 (Barbosa)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: L. Barbosa, S. Dalembert, J. Tinsley, G. Ostertag, C. Ward



    ALL-STARS PICKED 31+
    • Carlos Boozer (#34, 2002, x2)
    • Gilbert Arenas (#31, 2001, x3)
    • Mehmet Okur (#38, 2001, x1)
    • Michael Redd (#43, 2000, x1)
    • Manu Ginobili (#57, 1999, x1)
    • Rashard Lewis (#32, 1998, x1)
    • Brad Miller (Undrafted, 1998, x2)
    • Ben Wallace (Undrafted, 1996, x4)
    All-Stars: 8/280+ (< 3%)
    Total All-Star Appearances: 15
    MVP Awards: 0
    Finals MVP Awards: 0
    Defensive Player of the Year Awards: 4 (Wallace x4)
    Notable Non-All-Stars: Mo Williams, S. Jackson, K. Korver, U. Haslem, R. Bell
    Now go though and count just how many all stars have led there team to an NBA title and you will see how little chance there is of getting a player of that caliber. You really need (for want of a better name) a once in a generation player like (Shaq & Duncan) and even they need help. And you need luck more than anything to get one of those.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    Now go though and count just how many all stars have led there team to an NBA title and you will see how little chance there is of getting a player of that caliber. You really need (for want of a better name) a once in a generation player like (Shaq & Duncan) and even they need help. And you need luck more than anything to get one of those.
    How many team have won championship without a Top 5 talent? You need talent first, than luck to win championships.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23 View Post
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    If we miss the playoffs, that is the best means I know of to light a fire under the posteriors of Walsh and Bird and finally hit them squarely in their faces with a sense of urgency in making some real changes to the roster.
    Apparently didn't light much of a fire last off season. And sounds like they had potential deals on the table (i.e.-Nets including RJ) that we'd all gladly take in retrospect for JO.
    I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

    -Emiliano Zapata

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    I just think it's funny that everyone thinks there's a huge element of choice in this whole matter. If we suck, we're gonna get a Top 6-10 pick. If we only kinda suck, we'll sneak into the playoffs and get a pick between 14-18.

    I can't get over the feeling you're arguing whether it would be better if the ball in the spinning roulette wheel stopped on black or red. There's no real way to alter the outcome, so why not just watch it spin and wait?

    I mean, no one in this organization is gonna start trying to lose games. And with the parity of talent on our team our W-L record isn't gonna be affected greatly whether or not Shawne or Murphy gets more minutes.
    Excellent post! Nor should anyone ever start trying to lose games. Nor should any fans be hoping for their team to lose games. Period.

    Now about this "rebuilding"/"retooling" bit. Sorry can't recall who posted it where, but whoever it was nailed it. What constitutes rebuilding for this team? Well, the top requiremnt would be jettisoning the "foundation" players-JO and JT.

    It would be great if we could command high draft picks and good young players for them. Unfortunately, we can basically demand something marginally helpful and other people's garbage. As much as it pains me to say it, I'm resigned to being stuck with those two at least until this summer. Any other development will be a pleasant surprise.
    I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

    -Emiliano Zapata

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23 View Post
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    Whoa, kemosabe. This is EXACTLY what I'm afraid of!

    Making the playoffs would be a sigh of relief for Bird and Walsh.

    And that is exactly what the problem is. It would bring a sense of relief, and a tendancy toward a continued "tinkering" with the roster rather than the start of true rebuilding.

    If we miss the playoffs, that is the best means I know of to light a fire under the posteriors of Walsh and Bird and finally hit them squarely in their faces with a sense of urgency in making some real changes to the roster.

    I know what Will is saying in no appreciable difference between picking at #7 and #15. But I believe there is the perception of a potential huge difference in selecting at one over the other. Such a difference that a trade of #7 plus Tinsley for example for a higher pick in the draft has much more appeal than a trade of #15 plus Tinsley.

    What if such a trade could be made? Let's say for a #4 pick. Is that worthwhile?

    I'm a firm believer in stockpiling the best assets you can get your hands on. From my perspective, having #7 as an asset is significantly better than having #15. If nothing else, it gives you choices at #7 that #15 does not offer. At #15, you are dealing with what #7 thru #14 didn't take, even if the player is not appreciably worse than the earlier picks.
    That was my point too.



    -Bball
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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by D-BONE View Post
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    Apparently didn't light much of a fire last off season. And sounds like they had potential deals on the table (i.e.-Nets including RJ) that we'd all gladly take in retrospect for JO.
    Exactly... They were able to barely tweak the edges of a team that finished as arguably the worst team in the NBA. So who thinks making the playoffs would do anything but slow TPTB down even more?

    Only by continually failing to meet their (already too low) goals will a proper dialogue be opened and reality faced.

    -Bball
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

    -John Wooden

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    Exactly... They were able to barely tweak the edges of a team that finished as arguably the worst team in the NBA. So who thinks making the playoffs would do anything but slow TPTB down even more?

    Only by continually failing to meet their (already too low) goals will a proper dialogue be opened and reality faced.

    -Bball
    Or maybe another playoff miss won't light the fire that's really necessary either. Who knows?

    If we make the post-season in a momentum type of way minus JO and JT, I would be thrilled. I find the team infinitely more fun to watch when those two guys aren't in the lineup.

    If we lose our way to a high pick while trying to win games, I will be happy with that for the potential that it brings.

    If JO and JT come back, I'll still be pulling for the Pacers to win.
    I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

    -Emiliano Zapata

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by D-BONE View Post
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    Apparently didn't light much of a fire last off season. And sounds like they had potential deals on the table (i.e.-Nets including RJ) that we'd all gladly take in retrospect for JO.
    Good point.

    Now with JO I will say that some of it was that they didn't expect him to remain this hampered, and when he's healthy he's still a solid asset worth keeping. They've traded down in talent too much already. So to me the smart call was to stand pat, not that I was thrilled with what that meant but I just didn't want them to throw bad money after bad and just make things worse.

    Even though Diener and Rush weren't inspiring pickups, to me TPTB might have started to play things smart rather than the high risk busts they've gone for the last few years.

    Artest/Jackson/#11 pick last year for a total cost of roughly 12m plus a rookie deal for Dun/Troy/Ike and closer to 18m, more years, and a rookie deal. That's trading down in talent AND taking the financial hit. Enough was enough on that, time to be smart even if it's boring and leaves you stuck where you are at.

    The point is they could have made it much worse. All we are living with is the past mistakes, at least we didn't get some brand new ones this summer on top of those.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    Exactly... They were able to barely tweak the edges of a team that finished as arguably the worst team in the NBA. So who thinks making the playoffs would do anything but slow TPTB down even more?

    Only by continually failing to meet their (already too low) goals will a proper dialogue be opened and reality faced.

    -Bball
    I'm not convinced. D-BONE makes the great observation that we didn't make the "ultimate goal" (which I still don't agree with you on that), yet we still just tweaked the team (although we did fire the coach.....).

    The point as I see it is nothing will force Larry's hand or Donnie's hand, they have to make the call, and they only do it when they think it's time and/or they like the move they're making.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    The point is they could have made it much worse. All we are living with is the past mistakes, at least we didn't get some brand new ones this summer on top of those.
    Good point.

    I think that was the right move, especially with the past few months of hindsight. Don't force a trade because things are bad when you're not even sure that new move won't make things worse. Contracts aren't forever; let things play out if your best trades are ones you think make things worse.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    I'm not convinced. D-BONE makes the great observation that we didn't make the "ultimate goal" (which I still don't agree with you on that), yet we still just tweaked the team (although we did fire the coach.....).

    The point as I see it is nothing will force Larry's hand or Donnie's hand, they have to make the call, and they only do it when they think it's time and/or they like the move they're making.
    It would not have surprised me that if we would've squeaked into the playoffs then you would not have seen the coaching change.
    A couple of wins here and there should not have made that much of a difference for a decision like that, all things considered, but I'd bet a cookie that would've saved Carlisle's job.

    -Bball
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    i am totally for the pick. this squad is not one i believe in and i am not the only one. making the playoffs by default is this teams only realistic hope- and that is setting some unacceptably low goals. a .500 record is out of the question. a healthy j.o. is (i believe) out of the question. mediocre teams are not below .500
    this team squeaking in will not do much good. i don't buy into the playoff experience thing as much as some. it won't make murphy any better or daniels knees any better etc. the fact is if you got parts that don't work right- they won't simply be better because they got swept in an uneventful and somewhat humiliating fashion in the 1st round of the playoffs. they will simply be shown how badly they don't belong there in the first place!

    another late-mid to late 1st rounder is not going to generate even a possible spark of hope. a lottery pick COULD ( i didn't say it was 100%). if we go into the playoffs it is only because many of the better western teams were forbidden due to the way the league has set the seedings. this team has no business in the playoffs.
    at least a good pick could get some indy area folks possibly interested in the team again and a few more wins here and there and just getting the 7-8 seed is not going to bring them in ( just a hunch)
    i am as much over the idea jermaine has any real future with this team as i was with bender about 3-4 years ago. we have seen what tinsley has got to offer and it leaves me ill. like some have said- this foundation is rotten and a few small tweaks isn't going to fix it. we have no contacts anyone wants, and little room to acquire anyone useful. a draft pick guaratees nothing but, it at least can give a glimmer of hope as opposed to another year of the same b.s.
    i will take even the possibility of an impact player over the supposed value of this playoff experience at this point since this team as currently constructed simply has no chance to do anything meaningful. my belief is they won't have to tank not to make playoffs- but it would be more harmful if they do since making the playoffs any way possible would sadly be mistaken as some real progress even if our record is about as bad or possibly worse than last year's.
    prognosis:
    33-49
    that's 12-19 from here on out. not impossible to win that many but not likely to win many more than that.
    does anyone else think we should at least think about buying out tinsley?
    Last edited by clownskull; 02-12-2008 at 06:46 AM.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I hardly think if the Pacers win 37 games and make the playoffs that Walsh, Bird and O'Brien are going to think for one minute that this team is on its way and only needs a little tinkering.

    The question is how little are they willing to accept for Tinsley and JO and what do we have to include with those guys to get rid of them.

    And at what point do you say we are better off keeping JO (not because he is going to help us on the floor) but he will have extremely high trade value in two years in the last year of his contract.

    Jamaal was given a slight reprieve to see what he could do with a different coach (Bad decisions, but understandable) but it is obvious to all that it isn't the coach. it is jamaal. But he has negative trade value - no one will want him. We'll have to include Ike, Jeff, Shawne, or Danny just to get a team to think about taking him.
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 02-12-2008 at 12:32 PM.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Jermaine becomes a bigger trading chip after this summer because he'll no longer be able to threaten to opt out. If he comes back and looks very healthy, double that.

    Then after another year he's a huge expiring contract + a "championship move" for a contending team at that trading deadling.

    I think his value will only go up in trades after this summer is over (or after whatever day is the last in which he can opt out, when is that?). And that's even if his health stays where it's been.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I don't know how attractive JO is as an expiring...I'd think he'd be more attractive to us as an expiring at that point. He'll definitely be more attractive after the opt out decision, though.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    Jermaine becomes a bigger trading chip after this summer because he'll no longer be able to threaten to opt out. If he comes back and looks very healthy, double that.
    I am 100% convinced that he is incapable of looking very healthy. The only value I believe he has - an expiring contract.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    Jermaine becomes a bigger trading chip after this summer because he'll no longer be able to threaten to opt out. If he comes back and looks very healthy, double that.

    Then after another year he's a huge expiring contract + a "championship move" for a contending team at that trading deadling.

    I think his value will only go up in trades after this summer is over (or after whatever day is the last in which he can opt out, when is that?). And that's even if his health stays where it's been.
    Actually I'm starting to wonder if maybe J.O.'s days of using the "opt out" threat may be coming to an end.

    If his knee's are as bad as they are saying I don't think there is a person here who believes he will opt out of his contract this season no matter where he is because he will NOT get anywhere near the contract he will want.

    So, in theory, we trade him to a team he doesn't want to go to. Does he really bite the bullet and opt out knowing that he may have to take a significant salary cut? How many contending teams are under or near the cap that could out right sign him? My guess is none.

    So in other words I'm not so sure Jermaine has this as a bargaining tool anymore.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Jermaine & tool in the same sentence!

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I'd be o.k. with holding onto J.O. and moving him at the draft. If he can finish the season strong, he'll still have good trade value. He's several years younger than Ray Allen, and Allen fetched the #5 overall pick in a strong draft.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I tend to agree with UB. With that in mind JO will be here through next year and possibly
    partly into the next before he has real value. He may be here through the end of his contract
    if the Pacers want the cap space for themselves.
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    -"-"-

  23. #98
    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kofi View Post
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    I'd be o.k. with holding onto J.O. and moving him at the draft. If he can finish the season strong, he'll still have good trade value. He's several years younger than Ray Allen, and Allen fetched the #5 overall pick in a strong draft.
    This is what I really want to do!

  24. #99

    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I am 100% convinced that he is incapable of looking very healthy. The only value I believe he has - an expiring contract.
    sadly, i too agree with that. i don't think he will ever show he can play at a high enough level to really get his value to a point where he can be a useful trading piece at this stage of his career. he won't opt out and we likely won't be able to move him until his contact is close to expiring unless we were to take on some other team's unwanted contract(s)- and i want no part in that. been there and done that already.

  25. #100
    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Jamaal was given a slight reprieve to see what he could do with a different coach (Bad decisions, but understandable) but it is obvious to all that it isn't the coach. it is jamaal. But he has negative trade value - no one will want him. We'll have to include Ike, Jeff, Shawne, or Danny just to get a team to think about taking him.
    I've been thinking about this. James needs help in Cleveland, so offer them Tins, Ike, and Williams, for Gooden and Ira Newble. It works.

    I wouldn't do it but there are some that would. The question is would Cleveland? Brown knows Tinsley. Would the Pacers?

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