I'm tired of hearing Pacer fans wanting the Pacers to lose so we can HOPEFULLY get a franchise player in the draft. So I thought I would spell it out for you so you could understand losing just isn't going to accomplish that goal.
Right now there are only two players in the draft that most everyone agrees will be franchise players.
Michael Beasley PF 6-9
Derrick Rose PG 6-4
There's 3 or 4 more that most people agree will be impact players.
Eric Gordon SG 6-5
DeAndre Jordan C 7-0
O.J. Mayo SG 6-4
Donte Greene SF 6-8
After those player's it's as likely someone you would take at 7 would be available at 15. According to Chad Ford's big board these are the next players in rank.
Brook Lopez C 7-0
Chase Budinger SG 6-7
Danilo Gallinari SF 6-9
Marreese Speights C 6-10
Darrell Arthur PF 6-10
D.J. Augustin PG 5-11
Ty Lawson PG 6-0
Jerryd Bayless PG 6-3
Kevin Love C 6-9
So as it stands now we have to finish in the top 6 to get what most people figure will be an impact player. And one of those players Donte Greene is a SF, something we have no need for. So we actually have to get a top 5 draft choice. Lets look at are chances of doing that.
Currant record extrapolated to seasons end
Miami...........9-39..........15-67 Marion makes a difference, but 9 games?
New Jersey..21-29........35-47 They trade Kidd and the bottom drops out.
With our winning percentage extrapolated out, we would have the 9th or 10th pick in the draft. (depending on the coin flip with Philly)
Now if we manage to take the last spot in the playoffs we would get to pick 15th. From 7 to 15 there's not a whole lot of difference, so in that case it would actually be better for us to make the playoffs and give the young guys a taste of what it's like.
Now, what would it take for us to get a better draft choice? If we lost all of our remaining games we would finish 21-61, extrapolated out that would get us 3rd to 5th after the coin flips. However, we won't lose all of our remaining games. A more likely scenario would be for us to win about 3 games out of 10. So say we win 9 more games, that has us finishing with the 8th pick in the draft. If we just win 7 more games the rest of the season we would then likely be picking 7th in the draft.
Looking at the Pacers season from this perspective, the best thing for the Pacers is to take the last spot in the playoffs. They will still get the same caliber player they would get finishing 7th.