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Thread: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

  1. #1
    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I'm tired of hearing Pacer fans wanting the Pacers to lose so we can HOPEFULLY get a franchise player in the draft. So I thought I would spell it out for you so you could understand losing just isn't going to accomplish that goal.

    Right now there are only two players in the draft that most everyone agrees will be franchise players.

    Michael BeasleyPF6-9
    Derrick RosePG6-4

    There's 3 or 4 more that most people agree will be impact players.

    Eric GordonSG6-5
    DeAndre JordanC7-0
    O.J. MayoSG6-4
    Donte GreeneSF6-8

    After those player's it's as likely someone you would take at 7 would be available at 15. According to Chad Ford's big board these are the next players in rank.

    Brook LopezC7-0
    Chase BudingerSG6-7
    Danilo GallinariSF6-9
    Marreese Speights C6-10
    Darrell ArthurPF6-10
    D.J. AugustinPG5-11
    Ty LawsonPG6-0
    Jerryd BaylessPG6-3
    Kevin LoveC6-9

    So as it stands now we have to finish in the top 6 to get what most people figure will be an impact player. And one of those players Donte Greene is a SF, something we have no need for. So we actually have to get a top 5 draft choice. Lets look at are chances of doing that.

    Currant record extrapolated to seasons end

    Miami...........9-39..........15-67 Marion makes a difference, but 9 games?
    Minnesota...10-38..........17-65
    Memphis......13-37.........21-61
    Seattle........13-37.........21-61
    New York.....15-36.........24-58
    Milwaukee....19-32.........31-51
    Charlotte.....18-32.........29-53
    LAChippers...16-32.........27-55
    Pacers.........21-30........34-48
    Philly...........21-30........34-48
    New Jersey..21-29........35-47 They trade Kidd and the bottom drops out.

    With our winning percentage extrapolated out, we would have the 9th or 10th pick in the draft. (depending on the coin flip with Philly)

    Now if we manage to take the last spot in the playoffs we would get to pick 15th. From 7 to 15 there's not a whole lot of difference, so in that case it would actually be better for us to make the playoffs and give the young guys a taste of what it's like.

    Now, what would it take for us to get a better draft choice? If we lost all of our remaining games we would finish 21-61, extrapolated out that would get us 3rd to 5th after the coin flips. However, we won't lose all of our remaining games. A more likely scenario would be for us to win about 3 games out of 10. So say we win 9 more games, that has us finishing with the 8th pick in the draft. If we just win 7 more games the rest of the season we would then likely be picking 7th in the draft.

    Looking at the Pacers season from this perspective, the best thing for the Pacers is to take the last spot in the playoffs. They will still get the same caliber player they would get finishing 7th.

  2. #2
    Member indyman37's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    draft pick.

    i really think that after the all-star break that two or three of the teams with a top 10 pick currently will get hot. now yes you ask why in the world would a team want to start winning games? i have no idea. it's just a gut feeling that the pacers will probably get the 6th or 7th spot in the draft.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I think it depends on the situation. If you're a young team that has a good talent level, a la the Hawks, I'd take the playoffs. However for teams like the Pacers, teams that are lacking in talent, it's best in the long-term to increase your chances at finding an impact player by landing a top-10 draft pick.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I would prefer that we get in the lottery for a couple seasons, offload some of the fat contracts, sign some free agents and be back near the top of the conference in 2 1/2 years from now. By that time, Granger would be 27 and entering his prime. The team would have a higher talent level and would be much more competitive.

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    Member idioteque's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    After those player's it's as likely someone you would take at 7 would be available at 15.

    Brook LopezC7-0
    ChaseBudingerSG6-7
    Danilo GallinariSF6-9
    Marreese Speights C0
    Darrell ArthurPF6-10
    D.J. AugustinPG5-11
    Ty LawsonPG6-0
    Jerryd BaylessPG6-3
    Kevin LoveC6-9


    From 7 to 15 there's not a whole lot of difference, so in that case it would actually be better for us to make the playoffs and give the young guys a taste of what it's like.


    They will still get the same caliber player they would get finishing 7th.[/quote]

    I don't understand how that can necessarily be true even after reading this post a few times?

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    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Pick, definitely.

    I still can't 100% root for them to tank. But there's no question we need some talent infusion.

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    Feed the big fella. Infinite MAN_force's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    we could realistically drop to the seven spot, which I believe is where portland was when they won the lottery last year. If you can get into that bottom 7 you have a realistic chance at a top three.

    I just don't see this team going anywhere as presently constructed and picks in the 15-17 range rarely net you impact players.
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    PLAYOFFS BABY!

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I think the following:

    1) The team must try to win and make the playoffs. Tanking (if defined as on purpose) is poor sportsmanship. If, as a result of playing to win, we get a top 10 pick, wonderful.

    2) Try to unload JO and/or Tins for whatever we can get. If adding another player as sweetner nets us an unexpectedly good deal, then you probably do it. Otherwise, don't move anyone else unless it's too good to pass up.

    The high draft pick is probably better in the big scheme of things in terms of a significant talent infusion. I can't root for them to lose, however, just for this purpose. If we end up in the playoffs, so be it. Play to win let whatever happens happen.

    A low playoff seed and early exit at the hands of Detroit or Boston would not be without some value though. Gives our younger guys some important post season experience.
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    Member mb221's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    we could realistically drop to the seven spot, which I believe is where portland was when they won the lottery last year. If you can get into that bottom 7 you have a realistic chance at a top three.
    Portland was in 6th and Minnesota was in 7th, both had a 5.3% chance to land the #1 pick. On the flip side, Boston had the 2nd worst record and a 19.9% chance to land the #1 pick, and they got #5.

  11. #11
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    This team needs talent, badly. That is all. We're really inflexible because of bad contracts so FA and trades aren't really realistic. What's left? We need talent. Otherwise we're not going anywhere.

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    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    You're wrong, Will.

    To get a top-5 pick, the Pacers would have to have one of the two worst records.

    I don't know if we could lose that many games if we tried. And if we're going to try, I'd rather we tried to win.
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  13. #13
    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    You're wrong, Will.

    To get a top-5 pick, the Pacers would have to have one of the two worst records.
    In other words three teams would get lucky in the draft and get picks ahead of us. Man wouldn't that raise a stink in Pacer's nation!

    Especially with the guys wanting to lose.

  14. #14
    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I'm getting tired of the notion that anyone who wants us to get a high draft pick is just praying for a savior. It's not just about hoping for a franchise player. You can still get a very talented piece and they don't have to be a franchise player. We. Need. Talent.

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    Feed the big fella. Infinite MAN_force's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    I'm getting tired of the notion that anyone who wants us to get a high draft pick is just praying for a savior. It's not just about hoping for a franchise player. You can still get a very talented piece and they don't have to be a franchise player. We. Need. Talent.

    this really is very true, we seem to be up to our ears with quality role players, we need someone who is gonna be "the man". and we know its not JO or Jammal.
    "As a bearded man, i was very disappointed in Love. I am gathering other bearded men to discuss the status of Kevin Love's beard. I am motioning that it must be shaved."

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    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    I'm getting tired of the notion that anyone who wants us to get a high draft pick is just praying for a savior. It's not just about hoping for a franchise player. You can still get a very talented piece and they don't have to be a franchise player. We. Need. Talent.
    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    this really is very true, we seem to be up to our ears with quality role players, we need someone who is gonna be "the man". and we know its not JO or Jammal.
    Ummm...I think you may be missing his point.

  17. #17

    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Who says we'd be stuck at #7 or #8 or wherever anyway ? We
    could very well package a player or players with our pick in
    exchange for a higher pick and another player or players.

    Needless to say, when attempting to do so, #7 is gonna be
    worth more than #15. At #7, you get to choose the first
    guy taken from your hypothetical list depending on team needs,
    scouting opinions, etc. At #15, your stuck with whomever
    is left over after 8 other teams have already done so.

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Go for the pick.

    The way O'Brien has the team launching 3's (33 last night) it appears they might be thinking the same thing.

    A team isn't going anywhere if they keep picking in the mid teens every year, or trading their draft picks for Al Harrington.

    The best shot at talent, very good talent, is toward the top of the lottery.

    However, we need a lot more help than just a great lottery selection, but ya gotta start somewhere.

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    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I think we need more talent at this point instead of making the playoffs, but what comes is what comes. To think the team is going to lose on purpose is a myth, unless JoB and upper management decide to throw games by rotating out every player that gets hot in a game. No player is going to lay down when in reality, Danny may be the only player with any sort of lock with the futire of the team. They need to play hard every night and let the chips fall where they may.

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    Administrator Roaming Gnome's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    It's down right dumb to root for your team to lose!

    If the majority on here disagree, then I will just continue to be the odd man out.



    Look, if we play our way to a higher draft selection...fine, but I'm so f*$%in' sick of hearing posters ***** and moan about winning games.

    I'm sure managment's focus isn't "tanking" games in Feb.
    ...Still "flying casual"
    @roaminggnome74

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    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I think we have a few "Pacer" fans that are more interested in seeing certain hometown guys be on the team than how the team itself does. Just the way I see it.

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    Member Since86's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    I don't think losing on purpose is the goal, but right now you need to start looking at the future and that means playing younger players more mins than they would normally get.

    You can't have Williams sitting on the bench watching a game and expect him to get better by it, so he needs to play over an older player who may already be playing better.

    What does making the playoffs do exactly? It's gonna extend your season by 4 games and lower your draft pick. Wow, what an accomplishment.

    Let me know when they hand out rings for getting swept in the first round. If you don't win, then it's a failed season and everything should be examined on why you didn't win.l

    If it's a lack of talent then you try to get more. If it's an X's and O's thing, you get a new coach or you get a new strategy.

    The definition of crazy is trying the same thing and expecting different results, and that's exactly what's going on.

    Making it to the playoffs for 18 straight years did what exactly? Nothing. It's a good * to read at the bottom of the media guide. Mediocrity is the worst thing in sports. We've celebrated being mediocre for way too long and it's put us in this position. Instead of trying to get to the top we just want to be mediocre again.

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    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roaming Gnome View Post
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    It's down right dumb to root for your team to lose!

    If the majority on here disagree, then I will just continue to be the odd man out.



    Look, if we play our way to a higher draft selection...fine, but I'm so f*$%in' sick of hearing posters ***** and moan about winning games.

    I'm sure managment's focus isn't "tanking" games in Feb.
    I agree that we shouldn't root to lose, but I also think that a high draft pick would do infinitely more for this franchise than a first round sweep at the hands of the Celtics or Pistons.

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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Quote Originally Posted by SycamoreKen View Post
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    I think we have a few "Pacer" fans that are more interested in seeing certain hometown guys be on the team than how the team itself does. Just the way I see it.
    I doubt that. I would take both Rose or Beasly before Gordon. And its not like you can argue that the Pacers would be worse off with Gordon at the 1 or 2. He'd be better than anyone we have at either of those positions right now.

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    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which is better for the Pacers, high draft pick or playoffs?

    Root to win, expect to lose.

    Pretty much been my season motto since August.

    But worrying about draft position (#5 vs. #10 vs. #14) with more than 30 games left is silly at best. It's like trying to predict the playoff seeding in early February, i.e., mildly entertaining, based on very little, and probably an unproductive enterprise.

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