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Thread: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

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    Pacer Junky Will Galen's Avatar
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    Default Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    EDIT;I was reading Hollinger's article again and it dawned on me that the 439 for Gordon wasn't his rank, it was his score. Hollinger mislead me by going from giving players ranks to their scores.

    That makes a big difference, but it's still not that good. Of course Gordon's a freshman too.

    Here's the full article;

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...ftRater-080131

    Draft Rater: Beasley has most pro potential among collegians

    By John Hollinger
    ESPN Insider

    The numbers currently support the case of Kansas State's Michael Beasley being the top draft prospect.

    Let's face it, the NBA is a busy place in February. But before we get too consumed by trades and All-Star weekend and playoff races and what not, let's take a step back and have another look at the draft. Actually, the fans of a few teams (hello, Heat fans!) will be more than happy to do this already as they look ahead to whom their teams might select this June


    To review, last year I created a system to rate college players' pro potential based on their NCAA stats; earlier this year I updated that with a list of the top returnees from a year ago.

    Now, with half a season of college stats under our belts, we can start evaluating players based on their performances this season.

    Before we do, let's make sure you take this list with the proper mouthful of salt. Because this is based on a half-season, we're looking at samples of 400-600 minutes from most of these players. Thus, short-term flukes can have a dramatic impact on the rankings. Additionally, in a universe as vast as Division I college basketball, with minutes samples of this size, one should expect a couple of players who don't really belong to creep into the top of the list just by chance. In a couple of cases, it appears that is what might have happened.

    Additionally, a lot of teams play cupcakes in the first half of the season and pad their stats against bad teams. I have a schedule adjustment in the rankings, but it's possible it doesn't deal with this harshly enough; we'll know better once we see the year-end rankings in April.

    Finally, this whole system relies on heights and birthdates being correctly reported. If either isn't the case, then the whole thing blows up. With the reputation college heights have for being inflated, this factor is of particular concern.

    Of the players on the list below, the one most vulnerable in that respect is the No. 2 prospect, Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. He's listed at 6-10 but some scouts suspect he's only 6-8; were that the case, he'd fall to the No. 6 spot.

    Also, the No. 12 prospect, North Carolina's Ty Lawson, would drop to No. 15 if he's an inch shorter than his listed 6-0, as many surmise; and teammate Tyler Hansbrough would tumble out of the top 20 entirely if he turns out to be only 6-8.

    With all that said, these would be the top 20 players if the draft were held today. I used a minimum of 400 minutes played this season to qualify. Note also that stats are through Monday, so it doesn't include more recent games, such as K-State's win over Kansas Wednesday night:

    Title of data
    Player School Year Score
    Michael Beasley Kansas State Freshman 856
    Blake Griffin Oklahoma Freshman 725
    Kevin Love UCLA Freshman 724
    Danny Green North Carolina Junior 649
    James Harden Arizona State Freshman 642
    Robbie Hummel Purdue Freshman 601
    Jerryd Bayless Arizona Freshman 599
    Andrew Ogilvy Vanderbilt Freshman 598
    Ryan Anderson California Sophomore 586
    Dar Tucker DePaul Freshman 583
    DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh Freshman 582
    Ty Lawson North Carolina Sophomore 566
    Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina Junior 558
    Matt Howard Butler Freshman 556
    Chase Budinger Arizona Sophomore 547
    Malik Hairston Oregon Senior 537
    Tyler Smith Tennessee Sophomore 528
    Roy Hibbert Georgetown Senior 527
    Marreese Speights Florida Sophomore 526
    Kosta Koufos Ohio State Freshman 525


    Holy Freshmen, Batman! The first thing that jumps out is that nine of the top 11 players are freshmen, including the first three players on the list. This is indeed a highly regarded freshman class, led by consensus top pick Michael Beasley. By contrast, it's a somewhat lightly regarded class of returnees.

    But the proportions are still a bit shocking. And this is without the celebrated freshmen who didn't make the cut (more on them in a minute), and one other freshman, Austin Daye of Gonzaga, falling 18 minutes short of the threshold (he would have been sixth).

    Upperclassmen are an endangered species here. Only four cracked the top 20, and one of them, Danny Green of North Carolina, might be a short-term fluke. His numbers weren't nearly this good a year ago, and he barely cleared the 400-minute threshold. The highest-rated senior, Oregon's Malik Hairston, also looks fishy; he might have trouble keeping up his scintillating 65.2 true shooting percentage.

    That said, I should point out that this list might become more balanced by the end of the year, since a number of upperclassmen who were considered strong draft candidates had rough starts to their seasons (more on that below).

    The Pac-10 rules: Those of you who think the Pac-10 (or at least the nine Pac-10 teams that aren't located in Corvallis, Ore.) is the best conference in the country just got a whole lot of ammo to support your cause. Six of the top 17 players come from that league, representing five schools. Another Pac-10 player, Brook Lopez of Stanford, has a decent chance to crack the top 20 with more minutes. He missed the early part of the season when most of these guys were padding their stats against the St. Leo's and IUPUIs of the world, so his numbers don't look as good right now; he's only 30th.

    What about the other freshmen? As I mentioned, several prominent freshmen aren't on the list right now. Derrick Rose pulled in at 25th, missing the cut partly because his assist ratio is so low the computer sees him as an undersized shooting guard. Syracuse's Donte Greene is 26th, with a very negative pure point ratio hurting his rating. It's easy to imagine both moving up the list as they get acclimated to the college game and spread the ball around a bit more.

    EDIT; Here's where Hollinger changes from rank to score. I didn't catch it the first time around.

    A few others face a longer road up the charts. O.J. Mayo (371) failed to impress, partly because he is already 20 years old, and partly because of his -1.82 pure point ratio. Let's just say he's got a lot of work to do if he's going to play point in the pros.

    The system was beyond unimpressed with DeAndre Jordan (353), the Texas A&M freshman who has lured scouts with raw talent but isn't putting it to consistently effective use as a collegian. His four steals on the season were the least of any prospect, suggesting he might not be as athletic as we've been led to believe. Also, he averages a whopping six turnovers for every assist.

    Indiana's Eric Gordon also scored far worse than expected (439), partly because the formula wonders how athletic a 6-5 guy can be when he has had only eight offensive rebounds all season, and partly because his other numbers are nice but hardly special.

    Who the heck is … ? OK, there are four names on this list that nobody expected to be here. All four are freshmen who have played well in the early going. As I mentioned above, these could be outliers based on the small sample of minutes, but these players at least warrant tracking as the season goes on.

    Let's start with DeJuan Blair, who is at least something of a prospect -- Chad Ford's big board has him at No. 91 right now. He is an undersized power forward in the Jason Maxiell mold, with an insane rebound rate (nearly one every two minutes) and a great nose for the ball (1.9 steals per game). Even with a ding for being an undersized 4, his numbers are eye-grabbers. But he is only 6-7 and he plays inside, so you can understand why NBA teams are skittish.

    The others aren't even on the radar but have played extremely well in the early part of the season.

    Dar Tucker is a 6-5 swingman for DePaul who has done a little bit of everything for a mediocre team. He is second on the team in scoring and rebounding even though he comes off the bench.

    Robbie Hummel is a scrawny-looking forward for Purdue who is shooting 43.9 percent on 3-pointers and, more surprisingly, is leading the team in rebounding and blocked shots. Basically, he is a high-efficiency guy who has shown a surprising willingness to get his nose dirty.

    Like Blair, Butler's Matt Howard is an undersized power forward (6-8, 225) who has been very effective in the basket area, ranking second in scoring for the nation's No. 12 team. Butler is way better than the rest of its league and won't play anyone of consequence until the NCAA Tournament, but it's worth noting that Howard played very well against good teams in the early season. In particular, he destroyed Ohio State with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, despite giving up several inches to the likes of Kosta Koufos and Othello Hunter.

    Why does my computer hate all the bigs? No, my draft formula doesn't hate all big men … just the ones in this draft. Among players 6-10 or taller, only Oklahoma freshman Blake Griffin ranks in the top 15. The others? Not so much.

    Looking at the big men in Chad Ford's top 30, we see only Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos and Marreese Speights appear in our top 20, at the back end, while others didn't even come close. Hibbert isn't having as good a season as he did a year ago, so he has slipped, while Koufos and Speights simply haven't done anything to wow the judges so far.

    I already discussed DeAndre Jordan and Brook Lopez, but we can go right down the list. Darrell Arthur (446) was one of my highest-rated returnees, but he takes a hard ding for a substandard rebound rate and has been too turnover-prone, with nearly two a game. DeVon Hardin's stats (376) never have backed up the hype, and this season is no exception. Trent Plaisted's numbers (375) also leave a lot to be desired -- his low rates of blocks and steals are major negative indicators. JaVale McGee (387) has four turnovers for every assist, as does Hasheem Thabeet (339). Ouch.

    What about those guys from last time? You'll notice that few names are the same from when I presented my list of the top returnees a few weeks ago. There's a reason for this -- a lot of them are really struggling. I dealt with Hibbert and Arthur above, but there's more where that came from.

    Chase Budinger was the top returnee but has dropped several spots thanks to some worrisome ballhandling numbers in the early part of the season and a low rate of steals. Three "who dats?" on the list -- Stanford's Lawrence Hill, Arkansas's Patrick Beverley and Tennessee's Chris Lofton -- have been unable to come close to last year's pace and have tumbled well down the table.

    Of the group, Ryan Anderson, Ty Lawson and Clemson's K.C. Rivers (who was 21st) are the only ones to come close to replicating their performances from a year ago. We'll see if they snap back in the second half.
    -----------------------------

    Hollinger created this rating system last year and is still making tweaks to it, but it's already pretty good at picking players that will stand out from those who probably won't.
    Last edited by Will Galen; 02-01-2008 at 02:43 AM.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    What a horrible, horrible system. Truly laughable.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    What little respect I had for Hollinger's "numbers" just went out the window.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Indy View Post
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    What little respect I had for Hollinger's "numbers" just went out the window.
    I bet Hollinger is somehow responsible for the BCS, too.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    What a horrible, horrible system. Truly laughable.
    It's not laughable when you see the results he's got with it! My take is it just means Gordon just won't be an impact player. But like he warned, it's just a half a years stats and things can change.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Will Galen View Post
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    It's not laughable when you see the results he's got with it! My take is it just means Gordon just won't be an impact player. But like he warned, it's just a half a years stats and things can change.
    Which makes it laughable.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    I haven't seen Gordon much, but I've been impressed when I've seen him. My dad has a theory that Gordon is coasting to get these stats, and come tournament time, he's going to be completely unguardable.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Gordon is highly overrated. Many people on this site act like he's the second coming when he's not even the best player in his draft class (Beasley). Every year, it's always the same, people hype the draft, talk about how this year is the deepest draft ever like woh, 10+ allstars in this draft, every year a few guys pan out, most don't. You'd think people would learn.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    He's been hurting the last 1 1/2 games.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Gordon is highly overrated. Many people on this site act like he's the second coming when he's not even the best player in his draft class (Beasley). Every year, it's always the same, people hype the draft, talk about how this year is the deepest draft ever like woh, 10+ allstars in this draft, every year a few guys pan out, most don't. You'd think people would learn.
    I was right about Wade, and I'd stake money I'll be right about Gordon, too. The guy is a stone-cold baller.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Gordon is highly overrated. Many people on this site act like he's the second coming when he's not even the best player in his draft class (Beasley). Every year, it's always the same, people hype the draft, talk about how this year is the deepest draft ever like woh, 10+ allstars in this draft, every year a few guys pan out, most don't. You'd think people would learn.
    I do agree he's become massively overrated around here. And his overall game does make me worry. However there's no doubting in my mind he's gonna be a top-tier scorer. He has too much going for him - amazing range, nice turnaround, the ability to get to the rim and finish. He could end up being the Glenn Robinson of SG's - great scorer, not much else. Personally, I'd prefer Mayo as I think he brings more to the table overall, but with Gordon being the hometown hero, I can understand why people want to see him in a Pacer uniform.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    I was right about Wade, and I'd stake money I'll be right about Gordon, too. The guy is a stone-cold baller.
    Yeah I would too.

    And saying Gordon isn't the best player in this draft and Beasley is would have been like saying like Wade isn't as good as Melo. He's still really freakin' good.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    I haven't seen Gordon much, but I've been impressed when I've seen him. My dad has a theory that Gordon is coasting to get these stats, and come tournament time, he's going to be completely unguardable.

    He's pretty 'guardable' right now...

    As the strength of IU's opponents go up, Gordon's impressive performances are going down. Hard to say what effect the wrist has now, but he's been figured out at this point and I'm not seeing him figure out what to do about it.

    It's still early tho...

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    He's pretty 'guardable' right now...

    As the strength of IU's opponents go up, Gordon's impressive performances are going down. Hard to say what effect the wrist has now, but he's been figured out at this point and I'm not seeing him figure out what to do about it.

    It's still early tho...

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    You guys getting all hot and bothered about people like Hollinger dissing Gordon. If he drops in the draft it's more likely he'll be in the Pacers range.

    Which doesn't mean the Pacers will take him.

    And if that happens maybe history will repeat itself and we'll pull the next Reggie out of the draft.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    I was right about Wade, and I'd stake money I'll be right about Gordon, too. The guy is a stone-cold baller.
    Do you know you who else was right about Wade? Hollinger. His system had him at 4th in his class.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. IU's Gordon is 439

    Eric Gordon is overrated by a lot of people. He'll be a nice NBA player, I think, but not an impact guy. I don't see Dwyane Wade dominance. I see an improved version of Cuttino Mobley -- which is similar to what others have said: a good, good scorer.

    You watch a guy like Beasley, and you see dominance on every level. I watch Derrick Rose, and I see flashes of brilliance, which I think may adapt well to the NBA. You watch Gordon, and you don't see the rebounding, the passing.

    He's a good energy defender, but I'm not sure that'll translate well to guarding Kobe, McGrady, Wade, etc. He won't be a bad professional defender, but more likely a slightly above average one.

    There's a handful of guys I'd certainly want more than Gordon, starting with Beasley, Rose, Mayo, Jordan, maybe Bayless ... I really like Darrell Arthur at Kansas; he's a guy I can see playing a rugged, tough power forward for a long time if someone can get him pointed the right direction. About 15 more pounds, and he could be a Dale Davis with some offensive skills.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Gordon CAN pass the basketball. He doesn't get the chances in IU's system, but he certainly CAN do it.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Indy View Post
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    Gordon CAN pass the basketball. He doesn't get the chances in IU's system, but he certainly CAN do it.
    So can Tinsley. He just chooses not to sometimes.

    My point is he doesn't have the acute passing sense that truly great players have. I don't see a scorer/distributor combination in the mold of a Wade. I see a guy that knows he can get to the rack and does. I don't see him going to the hoop and consistently making his teammates more dangerous while he does it.

    That doesn't mean he's a bad player. Just not the second-coming superstar.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Not only do I have growing questions about Gordon, but I'm starting to wonder if he won't slip out of the top 10.

    This appears a classic case of the more he plays, the better the scouting reports are going to get and the farther he will fall while new phenoms leapfrog him.

    He's still an undersized SG in a PG's body. His natural ability and strength has allowed him to dominate lesser competition, but that's being negated more and more in college where the better teams can matchup better and where he finds better interior players waiting on him with he penetrates (not to mention better coaching than he consistently saw on the HS level). In the NBA he'll have less of an advantage.

    I'm not seeing any 'wizardry' with the basketball (ballhandling, passing) skills.

    If he doesn't begin to understand how the better teams are able to play him now and adjust his game accordingly, then he won't be drafted as a SG in the NBA.... he'll be drafted as a PG project.

    I don't think the Pacers can afford to pick a PG 'project' no matter what the PR ramifications would be. Unless they upgrade and balance the roster thru trade before the draft and allow themselves some margin of error for the draft, I think people need to ratchet down their expectations of seeing Gordon in a Pacers' jersey.

    And even then, I'd be surprised.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    He's still an undersized SG in a PG's body.
    He's listed at ESPN as 6'5. I don't think 6'5 is undersized. For example Wade is listed at 6'4.

    Of course I've seen Gordon listed from 6'2 to 6'5. We'll see at draft camp.
    Last edited by Will Galen; 02-01-2008 at 04:44 AM.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    I'm not feeling Gordon to the level of some on here either. Sure, the guy is obviously a talent, however, I'm honestly not sure he's NBA ready yet.

    IU has played the weakest schedule in the Big 10. Very few highly rated national opponents. The games he has struggled have come against the big, physical, defensive team. I can't buy putting up 10 straight in a garbage-time blow out. And even if the skills there, the demeanor has to change. More intensity needed.

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Consider that we may very well fall face-forward into the 8th seed, which means the 16th pick. If Gordon fell to there, wouldn't it make financial sense to take him? Or is he so bad he's not even worth taking there?

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    Why are you guys upset? There are two local college players on his list and they're freshman. Purdue's Robbie Hummel and Butler's Matt Howard.



    from the article....


    "Robbie Hummel is a scrawny-looking forward for Purdue who is shooting 43.9 percent on 3-pointers and, more surprisingly, is leading the team in rebounding and blocked shots. Basically, he is a high-efficiency guy who has shown a surprising willingness to get his nose dirty.

    Like Blair, Butler's Matt Howard is an undersized power forward (6-8, 225) who has been very effective in the basket area, ranking second in scoring for the nation's No. 12 team. Butler is way better than the rest of its league and won't play anyone of consequence until the NCAA Tournament, but it's worth noting that Howard played very well against good teams in the early season. In particular, he destroyed Ohio State with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, despite giving up several inches to the likes of Kosta Koufos and Othello Hunter."

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    Default Re: Hollinger> Beasley has most pro potential among collegians. EDIT; Gordons rank not listed.

    I lost absolutely all respect for Hollinger when he created his list of top 25 players to never win a ring and he had Reggie as number 25. Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Dominique were all in the top 10. Yes, he feels Vince Carter is a better player than Reggie. Hollinger's a joke

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