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Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

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  • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

    Originally posted by Will Galen View Post
    You've been giving love to Bayless and Love and I'm also aboard with both guys.

    Interestingly enough both rate well in John Hollnger's rating system.

    Here's his mid season ratings http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...ftRater-080131
    Can anyone with Insider access post this?
    "I'll always be a part of Donnie Walsh."
    -Ron Artest, Denver Post, 12.28.05

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    • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

      Has Hollinger rerun this data, or I should say published it again? At the time he had to list all the qualifying factors that might be throwing off the data.

      I was waiting to see what it showed after a full year, even though we all know that freshman stats and senior stats aren't the same thing. EJ and Rose are probably going to sort out some of their freshman issues, same with Mayo, etc.

      Comment


      • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

        Draft Express has him at #9
        NBADraft.net has him at #18
        This is the problem too. I sure as F-bomb hope Bird knows how to GM because this draft is pretty wide open with all sorts of potential options for a wily dealer.

        Not that these guys will save the team, but if you are really trying to rework stuff a savvy GM could make a lot of headway on that this summer.


        I don't think Shawne nets you better than a #25 pick, if that.

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        • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

          Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
          This is the problem too. I sure as F-bomb hope Bird knows how to GM because this draft is pretty wide open with all sorts of potential options for a wily dealer.

          Not that these guys will save the team, but if you are really trying to rework stuff a savvy GM could make a lot of headway on that this summer.

          I don't think Shawne nets you better than a #25 pick, if that.
          Great....we're screwed.
          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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          • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

            http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...ftRater-080131

            Draft Rater: Beasley has most pro potential among collegians

            By John Hollinger
            ESPN Insider

            Let's face it, the NBA is a busy place in February. But before we get too consumed by trades and All-Star weekend and playoff races and what not, let's take a step back and have another look at the draft. Actually, the fans of a few teams (hello, Heat fans!) will be more than happy to do this already as they look ahead to whom their teams might select this June.

            To review, last year I created a system to rate college players' pro potential based on their NCAA stats; earlier this year I updated that with a list of the top returnees from a year ago.

            Now, with half a season of college stats under our belts, we can start evaluating players based on their performances this season.

            Before we do, let's make sure you take this list with the proper mouthful of salt. Because this is based on a half-season, we're looking at samples of 400-600 minutes from most of these players. Thus, short-term flukes can have a dramatic impact on the rankings. Additionally, in a universe as vast as Division I college basketball, with minutes samples of this size, one should expect a couple of players who don't really belong to creep into the top of the list just by chance. In a couple of cases, it appears that is what might have happened.

            Additionally, a lot of teams play cupcakes in the first half of the season and pad their stats against bad teams. I have a schedule adjustment in the rankings, but it's possible it doesn't deal with this harshly enough; we'll know better once we see the year-end rankings in April.

            Finally, this whole system relies on heights and birthdates being correctly reported. If either isn't the case, then the whole thing blows up. With the reputation college heights have for being inflated, this factor is of particular concern.

            Of the players on the list below, the one most vulnerable in that respect is the No. 2 prospect, Oklahoma's Blake Griffin. He's listed at 6-10 but some scouts suspect he's only 6-8; were that the case, he'd fall to the No. 6 spot.

            Also, the No. 12 prospect, North Carolina's Ty Lawson, would drop to No. 15 if he's an inch shorter than his listed 6-0, as many surmise; and teammate Tyler Hansbrough would tumble out of the top 20 entirely if he turns out to be only 6-8.

            With all that said, these would be the top 20 players if the draft were held today. I used a minimum of 400 minutes played this season to qualify. Note also that stats are through Monday, so it doesn't include more recent games, such as K-State's win over Kansas Wednesday night:

            Holy Freshmen, Batman! The first thing that jumps out is that nine of the top 11 players are freshmen, including the first three players on the list. This is indeed a highly regarded freshman class, led by consensus top pick Michael Beasley. By contrast, it's a somewhat lightly regarded class of returnees.

            But the proportions are still a bit shocking. And this is without the celebrated freshmen who didn't make the cut (more on them in a minute), and one other freshman, Austin Daye of Gonzaga, falling 18 minutes short of the threshold (he would have been sixth).

            Upperclassmen are an endangered species here. Only four cracked the top 20, and one of them, Danny Green of North Carolina, might be a short-term fluke. His numbers weren't nearly this good a year ago, and he barely cleared the 400-minute threshold. The highest-rated senior, Oregon's Malik Hairston, also looks fishy; he might have trouble keeping up his scintillating 65.2 true shooting percentage.

            That said, I should point out that this list might become more balanced by the end of the year, since a number of upperclassmen who were considered strong draft candidates had rough starts to their seasons (more on that below).

            The Pac-10 rules: Those of you who think the Pac-10 (or at least the nine Pac-10 teams that aren't located in Corvallis, Ore.) is the best conference in the country just got a whole lot of ammo to support your cause. Six of the top 17 players come from that league, representing five schools. Another Pac-10 player, Brook Lopez of Stanford, has a decent chance to crack the top 20 with more minutes. He missed the early part of the season when most of these guys were padding their stats against the St. Leo's and IUPUIs of the world, so his numbers don't look as good right now; he's only 30th.

            What about the other freshmen? As I mentioned, several prominent freshmen aren't on the list right now. Derrick Rose pulled in at 25th, missing the cut partly because his assist ratio is so low the computer sees him as an undersized shooting guard. Syracuse's Donte Greene is 26th, with a very negative pure point ratio hurting his rating. It's easy to imagine both moving up the list as they get acclimated to the college game and spread the ball around a bit more.

            A few others face a longer road up the charts. O.J. Mayo (371) failed to impress, partly because he is already 20 years old, and partly because of his -1.82 pure point ratio. Let's just say he's got a lot of work to do if he's going to play point in the pros.

            The system was beyond unimpressed with DeAndre Jordan (353), the Texas A&M freshman who has lured scouts with raw talent but isn't putting it to consistently effective use as a collegian. His four steals on the season were the least of any prospect, suggesting he might not be as athletic as we've been led to believe. Also, he averages a whopping six turnovers for every assist.

            Indiana's Eric Gordon also scored far worse than expected (439), partly because the formula wonders how athletic a 6-5 guy can be when he has had only eight offensive rebounds all season, and partly because his other numbers are nice but hardly special.

            Who the heck is … ? OK, there are four names on this list that nobody expected to be here. All four are freshmen who have played well in the early going. As I mentioned above, these could be outliers based on the small sample of minutes, but these players at least warrant tracking as the season goes on.

            Let's start with DeJuan Blair, who is at least something of a prospect -- Chad Ford's big board has him at No. 91 right now. He is an undersized power forward in the Jason Maxiell mold, with an insane rebound rate (nearly one every two minutes) and a great nose for the ball (1.9 steals per game). Even with a ding for being an undersized 4, his numbers are eye-grabbers. But he is only 6-7 and he plays inside, so you can understand why NBA teams are skittish.

            The others aren't even on the radar but have played extremely well in the early part of the season.

            Dar Tucker is a 6-5 swingman for DePaul who has done a little bit of everything for a mediocre team. He is second on the team in scoring and rebounding even though he comes off the bench.

            Robbie Hummel is a scrawny-looking forward for Purdue who is shooting 43.9 percent on 3-pointers and, more surprisingly, is leading the team in rebounding and blocked shots. Basically, he is a high-efficiency guy who has shown a surprising willingness to get his nose dirty.

            Like Blair, Butler's Matt Howard is an undersized power forward (6-8, 225) who has been very effective in the basket area, ranking second in scoring for the nation's No. 12 team. Butler is way better than the rest of its league and won't play anyone of consequence until the NCAA Tournament, but it's worth noting that Howard played very well against good teams in the early season. In particular, he destroyed Ohio State with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, despite giving up several inches to the likes of Kosta Koufos and Othello Hunter.

            Why does my computer hate all the bigs? No, my draft formula doesn't hate all big men … just the ones in this draft. Among players 6-10 or taller, only Oklahoma freshman Blake Griffin ranks in the top 15. The others? Not so much.

            Looking at the big men in Chad Ford's top 30, we see only Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos and Marreese Speights appear in our top 20, at the back end, while others didn't even come close. Hibbert isn't having as good a season as he did a year ago, so he has slipped, while Koufos and Speights simply haven't done anything to wow the judges so far.

            I already discussed DeAndre Jordan and Brook Lopez, but we can go right down the list. Darrell Arthur (446) was one of my highest-rated returnees, but he takes a hard ding for a substandard rebound rate and has been too turnover-prone, with nearly two a game. DeVon Hardin's stats (376) never have backed up the hype, and this season is no exception. Trent Plaisted's numbers (375) also leave a lot to be desired -- his low rates of blocks and steals are major negative indicators. JaVale McGee (387) has four turnovers for every assist, as does Hasheem Thabeet (339). Ouch.

            What about those guys from last time? You'll notice that few names are the same from when I presented my list of the top returnees a few weeks ago. There's a reason for this -- a lot of them are really struggling. I dealt with Hibbert and Arthur above, but there's more where that came from.

            Chase Budinger was the top returnee but has dropped several spots thanks to some worrisome ballhandling numbers in the early part of the season and a low rate of steals. Three "who dats?" on the list -- Stanford's Lawrence Hill, Arkansas's Patrick Beverley and Tennessee's Chris Lofton -- have been unable to come close to last year's pace and have tumbled well down the table.

            Of the group, Ryan Anderson, Ty Lawson and Clemson's K.C. Rivers (who was 21st) are the only ones to come close to replicating their performances from a year ago. We'll see if they snap back in the second half.

            John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
            Last edited by Jose Slaughter; 03-12-2008, 11:30 PM.

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            • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

              Very interesting read. Did it list the entire rankings or just the column?

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              • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                it's still the same article from feb

                http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-...ad.php?t=36600

                us stat freaks are waiting for the full season update

                Comment


                • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                  Blake Griffin looks very good. NBADraft.net has him #1 next year and Draft Express has him #3. If he comes out this year and slips to us, he could be J.O.'s replacement.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                    Griffin is like a more athletic version of Kevin Love IMO. Doesn't get enough pub nationally because he plays for Oklahoma, but when you watch him play you can't help but come away impressed.


                    Comment


                    • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                      Originally posted by Indy View Post
                      Griffin is like a more athletic version of Kevin Love IMO. Doesn't get enough pub nationally because he plays for Oklahoma, but when you watch him play you can't help but come away impressed.
                      until you realize he's a 6'8 pf

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                      • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                        Originally posted by croz24 View Post
                        until you realize he's a 6'8 pf
                        So is Elton Brand. Being 6'8 doesn't mean you can't play PF. Nor does being 7'0 mean you can play PF.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                          Yeah, I'm completely sold on Kevin Love. And he's going to slip too, especially in individual workouts. If he slips to the late 1st round then that's a guy you have to think we'd be able to trade Shawne (and maybe Hulk, if necessary) for.

                          EDIT: Love would be like Jeff Foster here. Just a complete fan favorite. These are definitely the types of guys we need. More than ever, it's becoming clear that we just need guys who know how to play. Love would be great in JOB's system.
                          Last edited by rexnom; 03-13-2008, 01:46 PM.

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                          • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                            Originally posted by croz24 View Post
                            until you realize he's a 6'8 pf
                            Griffin and Love are nearly the same size. In fact if anything Griffin may be a little bigger.


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                            • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                              Thabeet or Love for the Pacers. Thabeet will bring excitement back and defense to the team and Love is a good all round player with rebounding skills and fast break initiator.
                              {o,o}
                              |)__)
                              -"-"-

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                              • Re: Official 2008 NBA Draft recruiting center...

                                Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                                it's still the same article from feb

                                http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-...ad.php?t=36600

                                us stat freaks are waiting for the full season update
                                Sheesh...this is what the dude does and he already mentioned he needed more data. Time to send him an email or something. I mean it's March now, roll that list out.


                                Anyway, Singletary gone but ESPN 360 has some replay games so I'm watching Va vs Duke. He's a decent scorer here, some modest moves at this point, but I'm not sure. Maybe in the 20's? I'll keep him on the watch list.


                                WEAVER - brilliant first half vs Oregon. He's a SF at WSU, but really more NBA 1/2. He is asked to initiate plays in the HC as a true PG, but also plays off the ball. If you haven't seen WSU before they basically run a 3 guard team quite often.

                                Anyway, his thing is defense but tonight he made some really impressive passes, some clever, some requiring a difficult throw in a tight spot, and also some off the dribble drive. I'd considered him a defensive ace that just doesn't tank you when he plays, but right now he's more Diener if you swapped 3 ball for defense.

                                This includes a first half with 5-6 assists to no TOs, and another assist the dude pulled a Foster on (miss at rim alone, catch his miss, rebunny for the score).

                                He's stayed on the early 20's radar, probably no shot at him and you just can't reach down from 13-14 or higher, that would be a mistake.

                                Weaver and Rush just make interesting cases. I called Rush a SG McKey, but really Weaver is that even moreso. The both read the court pretty well on defense, they see guys getting open and go try to fix it, as well as finding a body on rebounds. And both can hold their own on offense without being the big star.

                                And he's (Love) going to slip too, especially in individual workouts.
                                w00t, fall to our 2nd pick (post trade )
                                I think you are right. Vert, reach, etc and suddenly it's "uh oh", though clearly those factors don't come close to holding back his game. He's definitely a guy you have to see to appreciate how he does it.
                                Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-13-2008, 09:09 PM.

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