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Thread: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

  1. #1

    Default 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Before the season started, we had a thread in which posters predicted how the Pacers would do this year.

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-...ad.php?t=34177


    Needless to say, a lot of people have been surprised. The Pacers are on track to win 37 games. Far and away the majority of posters who mde a prediction thought the Pacers would do better than they are doing. On the other hand, a few people underestimated the team.

    I invite you to discuss what has been different than you expected. Did you have too much faith in the bench? Did you expect the team to play without injuries? has the quality of the competition surprised you?

    Put yourself on the spot here. If your prediction was way off base, please admit you were wrong and do some self-analysis. Have fun.


    For simplicity, I've summarized all the predictions into four groups.



    ----- Posters who were ridiculously optimistic (45 or more wins) -----

    Vince Neil, Speed, McKey Fan, Indy, Infinite MAN Force, Elgin56, Mal, odeez, aero, pacerfreak, naptown, Gyron, Moses, Bobby Mac. Will Galen, pianoman, obnoxiousmodesty, Irk woodsman, hoopsforlife, justin DOHMAN, aceace, Lord Helmet, Alabama-Redneck, OTD, burnzone, Arcadian, skyfire, TheDoddage, flying dutchman, RamboLamar, spazzxb, Robertmto, The Don, Nashville Kat, wjs, naptownmenace, Isaac, cactus jack, tora tora, Big smooth, NorCal Pacerfan, ONeal07, johnnybegood, mellifluous, Magic Rat, Suaveness, Raskolnikov


    ----- Posters who were a bit too optimistic (40 to 44 wins) -----

    UncleBuck, pwee31, Los Angeles, rexnom, Alpolloco, Lonegranger33, indygeezer, AB1077, Knucklehead Warrior, BoomBaby33, pig norton, owl, BlueNGold, CableKC, Shade, #31, UncleWTF, ABADays, wintermute, Wu-Gambino, slyder, BillS, sixthman


    ----- Posters who were pretty close (35 to 39 wins) -----

    Avoidingtheclowns, thunderbird1245, SamBear, Diamond Dave, D-Bone, pacertom, Anthem, tdubb03, Cobol Sam, denyfizle, the Hustler, Putnam



    ----- Posters who were too pessimistic (34 or fewer wins) -----

    SycamoreKen, maragin, JayRedd, Kegboy, Tank, carpediem024, Claptonrocks, Cactus Jax, King tuts Tomb, Displaced Knick, Ron who?




    (If you aren't on this list, it is either because your prediction made no sense or because I have you ignored. Have a nice day.)
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

  2. #2
    Member Speed's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Good thread, I'll cope to buying into the coaching hype and style change, this coupled with the very weak EC field. It looks pretty bad right now though. They really could be 10 under, easily by the end of the month. Scary.

    I also thought Murphy would have his best year, it seemed to fit, but now they want him skinny again and he's struggled imo.

    Lastly, at the time I had no idea that the group didn't have a finisher in any form at all and didn't have a plan.

    Who am I kidding, there a million things I could pick on, they just aren't that talented, nor do they fit together symbiotically. I thought they were better than they are and I HOPED the pieces would fit better.

    I think I let my heart get in the way of my brain.

    If I was picking now, I'd say 32.

  3. #3
    Member owl's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I was hoping that Obrien would really make some difference with the limited talent the Pacers have in the front court. Plus this team is just a poor shooting team.
    So I predicted 41 wins I believe and would just make the playoffs. However I am
    beginning to see this team could fall completely apart. Plus other teams start finding their
    stride and move past the Pacers. The last part of the season and especially the off season
    will be very interesting.
    {o,o}
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    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I probably should have picked in the 35-39 wins, but then they still have the ability to finish around 34 wins, but i hope they do not. The team does seem to be in that grey area of playoof/non playoff team right now. I'm not sure if we need to really crash and burn before we can get better or not. I think we need to try to follow Portland's modl if possible, but that means getting some decent draft picks.

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    Member Ragnar's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Did I fall asleep for a couple of months? I thought the season was still on?

  6. #6
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!
    Read my Pacers blog:
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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar View Post
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    Did I fall asleep for a couple of months? I thought the season was still on?
    Agreed here - I stand by my prediction, since we're not even at the All-Star break yet.

    The strings of losses are a problem but I suspect we'll be able to string some wins later as well.
    BillS

    "Every time I pitched it was like throwing gasoline on a fire. Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw!"
    - Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh

  8. #8
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Yeah, I said 42 wins and I think I'll stand by that.

    Although right now it looks like around 35 wins is more likely, although 10 days ago, 45 wins seemed more likely

  9. #9

    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I didn't think the return of JO would kill the offense as much as it did the last few games.

    The offense that we played without JO was a beautiful thing to see, too bad he disrupts the offensive flow so much.
    Maceo Baston's #1 fan on Pacers Digest!

  10. #10
    Tyrant maragin's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    You could also add Las Vegas to your "too pessimistic" section.

    I predicted 31, and have been pleasantly surprised. If we make the playoffs, I'd consider this season a storming success.

  11. #11
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpolloloco View Post
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    I didn't think the return of JO would kill the offense as much as it did the last few games.

    The offense that we played without JO was a beautiful thing to see, too bad he disrupts the offensive flow so much.
    I think the much more important point that you aren't mentioning is Tinsley. JT is much more important to the Pacers offense than JO is.

  12. #12
    The Future! AB1077's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    My prediction is not out of reach, although some things need to improve. Shooting and putting teams away when we get them down are the 2 biggest.

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    Member LG33's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!
    More like Nostradumbass.


    I predicted 44 wins, but I now think 38 wins is the top this team, under O'Brien, is capable of.

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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I don't know...it will be hard to get to my predicted 48 wins....Now i'm thinking more like 41....don't know what the answer is...they are so inconsistant in thier shooting and their running of the offense and defense...Granger and Williams are dissapointments....and of course Deiner...

  15. #15

    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I predicted 42-44 wins and I'll stick w/ it for awhile. Extrapolating
    after 35 games is kind of a crapshoot. That said, I'd love to see
    us win 30 games. I'll take a Lottery pick over an 8th seed and
    early exit any day.

    As for Williams, he's what 21 yrs old and is 3 yrs removed from HS ?
    It's a little early to be calling him disappointing. The only thing
    disappointing is his lack of playing time.

  16. #16
    streets ahead
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    does this mean i win something?




    Quote Originally Posted by LoneGranger33 View Post
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    More like Nostradumbass.
    3rd grade FTW!
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    I'll admit I was wrong if or when they actually finish with 37 wins.

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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    This thread is very premature. This season's already been like a roller coaster. Who's to say it won't continue to be so?

  19. #19

    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    This thread is very premature. This season's already been like a roller coaster. Who's to say it won't continue to be so?
    You, apparently.


    Quote Originally Posted by Shade, in the thread called "We need a trade"
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    We're just an average team. That's all we're going to be until some roster changes are made.
    And I won't be here to see the day
    It all dries up and blows away
    I'd hang around just to see
    But they never had much use for me
    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

  20. #20
    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    You, apparently.
    And in the end, I think we'll be an average team. We'll hit a major losing streak (12 in a row possibly on the horizon right now, as a matter of fact), and probably some mini-winning streaks to get back around .500 by season's end.

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    How are you here? Kegboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    You, apparently.
    You're getting "Manic Shade" and "Depression Shade" confused.

    [edit] As for me, I didn't expect Jamaal to play at an All-Star level. I did, however, expect him not to be able to play 82 games.
    Come to the Dark Side -- There's cookies!

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    And in the end, I think we'll be an average team. We'll hit a major losing streak (12 in a row possibly on the horizon right now, as a matter of fact), and probably some mini-winning streaks to get back around .500 by season's end.
    I'll bet you the remainder of what I owe Jerm, that the Pacers won't lose 12 in a row.

  23. #23
    woman without a team
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I'll bet you the remainder of what I owe Jerm, that the Pacers won't lose 12 in a row.
    I bet they don't either. They'll probably underachieve and only loose 11 or they'll really apply themselves and loose 13. (Or is that supposed to be the other way around?)

  24. #24
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by Putnam View Post
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    (If you aren't on this list, it is either because your prediction made no sense or because I have you ignored. Have a nice day.)
    Same to you. Sheesh.


    Anyway then, add me to the 34 and under list, those of you that actually know I exist.
    The preseason has me optimistic so I'll say:
    34
    I will add to that the following thought. Currently it's a 37 win pace, but what if:

    they lose to ATL
    15-19 = 36 win pace

    They lose to ATL and the next 3 road games (LAL, UTH, PHX)
    15-22 = 33 win pace

    They win 2 of the next 6 (ATL, @LA, @UTH, @PHX, @SAC, @GS)
    17-22 = 35-36 win pace

    It's not like they are definitely on some steady trend toward 37 wins right now, or appear to be about to turn it around. They were on pace to win 44 just a few weeks ago. And last year at 29-24 they were on pace to win 45 which then became 35.

    It's a little too soon to say "tell us why you were wrong".

  25. #25
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: 20-20 Hindsight Thread: Tell us why you were wrong!

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    JayReddamus is never wrong. You shall see. Also...Armageddan in 2014!
    Dangit, I had plans for 2014. I hope I can get my deposit back still.

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