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Thread: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    I think the biggest trend we are seeing is wild swings within games. Pacers have lost big leads, but they also came back from a 7 point deficit in the last 3 minutes of the Heat game. But the Pacers have shown the ability to get big leads and they have shown some ability to come back after being behind.

    The question that needs to be asked is why and what is going on here. Why are they getting and why are they giving up big leads. When teams give up big leads, no one ever discusses the fact that they had a big lead - they only dwell on the "collapse"


    There is no easy answers to any of these questions.

    Certainly when you are playing a faster tempo and shooting a lot of threes, there are going to be larger swings within games - as opposed to playing a slow tempo. So I'm afraid we are going to have to just get used to the swings a little.

    But I believe there is a lot more going on here and a lot more than needs to be explored and fleshed out.

    It seems to me that the Pacers aren't able to keep the intensity up to play the style that they are trying to play. And I'm not even talking about the running game - just the passing game and the defense takes a lot more energy that this team is used to playing. And right now the team doesn't appear capable of playing more than 24 or maybe 36 minutes of high intensity basketball. But I think that will get better at this as they develop better habbits and as they learn the system to the point where it is second nature. So I'm saying it will get better.

    In some ways this reminds me of Larry Brown 's first season as our coach. They started the season 17-24 and yet there were signs of good things to come, but the talk was that the personnel just wasn't right for what Larry was trying to do. Brown was trying to change the culture of the franchise, trying to instill a defensive attitude - and it was often ugly during the first half of the season - but it finally clicked and the team gained confidence to the point where they were one of the best teams in the NBA by years end.

    Will that happen this season, is that a possiblity. Probably not, but I do believe that as the players get used to the style it can get better.


    That is the positive side of what is going on and that is the hopeful side of things. Putting my bball cap on for a second - losing the way the pacers have the past three is a horrible sign of things to come. As the players begin to lose confidence, as they get more and more frustrated with each other - things will spiral out of control and we could be looking at a 20 win season. See what happens in the NBA, a lot of teams start out the season pretty even, but as the season goes along they separate and the gaps between the good and the bad teams widen with each passing day. As someone who grew up following the Pacers in the 80's let me tell you November was typically their best month and yes this team this year in a lot of ways resembles those 20 win teams.

    OK, talking my bball cap off - let me say I don't expect things to spiral out of control that is if the players stay together and if they believe in the coaching staff.

    My greatest fear is going through a bad season (and by that I mean less than 35 wins) with JO and Jamaal Tinsley leading them. I don't want that - I would rather win 25 games without those two - with the idea of building towards the future.

    So right now just like the wild swings within games, I have wild swings within my own mind as to where this team is headed. I do have complete confidence in this coaching staff - believe me I really do. If we have a rookie head coach and inexperience assistants I think we would be looking at closer to a 20 win season than a 40 win season.

    This post isn't about analyzing individual players, (although I did mention the two most important players). Most of you have never gone through a completely hopeless 20 win season - let me tell you it isn't fun - the NBA takes no pity on you and for you who gripe about the referees and for those of you who think we never get any calls, No, 20 win teams never get any calls.

    My only advice to you is hold on, enjoy the little things and lower your expectations because I honestly don't know where this team is headed
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 11-11-2007 at 02:16 PM.

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    Nude Poster Shack80's Avatar
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Young team learning a new system without solid leadership. Does not seem that surprising to me really. There is some talent that when they are on can run and put up points. Problem is when there shot is off there is not the maturity or strong enough leadership presence to reel them in. That is my take.
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shack80 View Post
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    Young team learning a new system without solid leadership. Does not seem that surprising to me really. There is some talent that when they are on can run and put up points. Problem is when there shot is off there is not the maturity or strong enough leadership presence to reel them in. That is my take.
    You are naive if you think there is "some talent" on the Pacers' team. Maybe compared to a college team there is "some talent", but by NBA standards the Pacers are NOT a talented team. They are not good at all. They won 3 games early due to favorable scheduling. Give it about 60 days and they will have one of the three or four worst records in the league because that is what the talent level is.

    The real sad thing is that JO has rapidly diminishing trade value. No other team is going to give up much to get him. They could have rebuilt through a blockbuster trade a year ago or two years ago. That opportunity is gone. Because of incompetent management they will now have to rebuild through the draft which could take up to 8 years. they are going to have to get lottery picks for 2 or 3 years in a row, then hope they make good choice with those picks. Then develop the players. It's going to take a LONG time. Be prepared all Pacer fans.

    It's going to be a LONG decade.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Munson View Post
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    You are naive if you think there is "some talent" on the Pacers' team. Maybe compared to a college team there is "some talent", but by NBA standards the Pacers are NOT a talented team. It's going to be a LONG decade.
    that's just silly. i understand being bitter after these losses but to say that there is zero talent on this team is absurd.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    I think the Pacers have a decent amount of talent 3-15. It's 1 & 2 that I think are overrated and/or too inconsistent to be relied upon.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    While I agree that we're apt to see more violent swings early in the season due to unfamiliarity, adjustment, etc....I don't think it's realistic to expect anyting but large swings and streak play within games as long as J'OB is at the helm.

    As TBird, Seth and others have been saying since we hired Jimmy, he is who he is. He's not changing his style and he was brought here to run that style. The defense is the defense, and there's no reason to assume that should be "streaky" (although most all defense in the NBA is streaky because of fickle effort).

    But a jump-shooting offense is going to have it's ups and downs. "Live by the three, die by the three" in March Madness terms. And aside from Danny (and maybe Troy), I'm not sure there's a consistent outside shooter on our entire team who is a 25-mpg guy. Rush and to a lesser extent Diener are, I believe, both viewed as relatively consistent, but their experience is limited at best, and both have actually been pretty streaky in their early Pacer days.

    So we have streaky players playing in a streaky system (throw in streaky League of a streaky sport too if you want). That's not going to change unless we see some major trades go down, so I wouldn't really expect the "wild swings" to ever really go away.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Munson View Post
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    You are naive if you think there is "some talent" on the Pacers' team. Maybe compared to a college team there is "some talent", but by NBA standards the Pacers are NOT a talented team. They are not good at all. They won 3 games early due to favorable scheduling. Give it about 60 days and they will have one of the three or four worst records in the league because that is what the talent level is.

    I have never bought into that notion. There is plenty of talent on the Pacers, and there is way more than enough to win on a consistent basis. I would say the biggest problem of the past 3 years is that we haven't maximized the talent we have by any means, and coupled with injuries/tuning out the coach we've put ourselves into a tough situation. We haven't lost a game this year because we were overmatched. We're just a streaky team that does not play with enough of an inside game, even though we have three currently healthy players (four if you include Harrison) that could.

    We put 46 points on the board in one quarter last night against two former first-team all NBA defenders (including last year's dpoy) and one that will eventually be on the roster. And Kenyon Martin isn't a slouch. Think any college team could come in and do that?

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    While I agree that we're apt to see more violent swings early in the season due to unfamiliarity, adjustment, etc....I don't think it's realistic to expect anyting but large swings and streak play within games as long as J'OB is at the helm.

    As TBird, Seth and others have been saying since we hired Jimmy, he is who he is. He's not changing his style and he was brought here to run that style. The defense is the defense, and there's no reason to assume that should be "streaky" (although most all defense in the NBA is streaky because of fickle effort).

    But a jump-shooting offense is going to have it's ups and downs. "Live by the three, die by the three" in March Madness terms. And aside from Danny (and maybe Troy), I'm not sure there's a consistent outside shooter on our entire team who is a 25-mpg guy. Rush and to a lesser extent Diener are, I believe, both viewed as relatively consistent, but their experience is limited at best, and both have actually been pretty streaky in their early Pacer days.

    So we have streaky players playing in a streaky system (throw in streaky League of a streaky sport too if you want). That's not going to change unless we see some major trades go down, so I wouldn't really expect the "wild swings" to ever really go away.
    Absolutely.

    Go back and look at the Boston teams he coached and it was pretty much the same kind of style with the wild swings up and down.

    JOB is pretty much the closest thing to Nellie in terms of style. Only difference is JOB will use more conventionally sized lineups and he has a different method of motivating players, but the pace they push and the emphasis on the 3 ball is pretty much going to be the same. That's what the Warriors had a lot last year: 36+ point 1st quarters followed by 14 point 3rd quarters.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    I agree with most of what has been posted so far.

    It also shows that we can't stop anybody when we really have to, especially a really good perimeter player. We are asking Granger to be both our best offensive guy, and to shadow the opponents best player. Often, he isn't good enough to do this for an entire game.

    Our offense is going to be streaky by it's very design, but the bottom line is our defense on the perimeter is horrid. We continue to need an elite perimeter defender, so Granger can concentrate on scoring more, and won't have to check Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and the like.

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    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Just to illustrate how drastic these swings are and will continue to be, let's look at our scoring by quarter in just our first six games:

    Denver - 46, 28, 14, 18
    Charlotte - 27, 16, 30, 14
    Clippers - 25, 33, 14, 17
    Memphis - 40, 32, 22, 27
    Miami - 24, 24, 20, 19
    Washington - 28, 20, 22, 33 (OT: 16)

    Okay...sample size is ridiculously small, and like UB has mentioned, this is a new system with a new coach and I imagine all NBA teams are pretty up-and-down in November regardless.

    But still, let's look at our quarters so far. I'm going to assume a "bad" quarter to be 22 points or less (would be an 88-ppg pace), a "normal" quarter to be 23-26 points (92-104 ppg pace) and a "good" quarter to be 27 points and up (108+ ppg pace).

    Bad - 11
    Normal - 3
    Good - 10

    I really didn't even purposely "rig" the numbers so it would look this extreme. But by this (admittedly off the top of my head) quick analysis, we've only had 3 normal quarters out of 24. That's pretty odd.

    And we can break it down even further if we call 18 and under a "horrible" quarter (72 ppg pace) and 29 points and up an "amazing" quarter (116 ppg pace). This shows the most violent of the wild swings:

    Horrible - 6
    Amazing - 7

    To me, that shows that 13 of our 24 quarters played are HIGHLY irregular. I mean, obviously even 100-ppg teams never score 25 points per quarter to get there, and final scores are actually determined with "ups and down" throughout the game...and I also have clearly never really looked at these numbers for other teams, but just in just glancing at our opponents coinciding numbers in these six games, it appeared there were a lot more 23s and 26s and a lot fewer 14s and 33s.

    What's also interesting, is that many of these "horribles" and "amazings" come in the same game. I mean, we scored more in the 1st Quarter against Denver than we did in the 2nd Half. And we scored more in the 2nd Quarter against the Clipps than we did in the whole 2nd Half. I missed the Denver game, but having that happen twice so far in six games is just flipping nuts.



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    Last edited by JayRedd; 11-11-2007 at 08:05 PM.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    UB,

    I just want to say you by far one of the best fans posting here on the digest. I like reading what you have to say. I agree with you about JO and TINS. So what do we do as fans? If we were to trade them, where would they go? JO is making way too much money to be playing the way he is. I know he was hurt but at close 20 million a season he is not worth it. And TINS just breaks my heart far too much. His decision making when the heat is on is scattered at best. Help us BBALL GODS?!?!?
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Without reading any of the other posts, it means they don't guard very well to get stops when they absolutely have to have them, and it means they don't establish the lane as well as they should for those times when the outside shots don't fall.

    When things are going wrong, you must get stops and you must get high percentage shots.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    Just to illustrate how drastic these swings are and will continue to be, let's look at our scoring by quarter in just our first six games:

    .

    Interesting, Redd. Using your definitions over 200 recent NBA quarters by all teams, you can see that the Pacers are quite a bit more erratic than the rest of the league:


    Bad
    NBA: 37%
    Pacers: 46%

    Normal
    NBA: 27%
    Pacers: 12%

    Good
    NBA: 36%
    Pacers: 42%

    Horrible
    NBA: 14%
    Pacers: 25%

    Amazing
    NBA:24%
    Pacers: 29%



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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    So right now just like the wild swings within games, I have wild swings within my own mind as to where this team is headed. I do have complete confidence in this coaching staff - believe me I really do.
    Amen to this.

    I write long posts of what I think and then decide I don't really completely think that, then either delete the entire post or shorten it way down.

    Really the way they play I sort of expect them to beat Boston.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Buck, I think it's the nature of the style of play. Lots of shooting, especially the bomb, and big defense. So you get runs of hot shooting and cold shooting and you get runs created by stops and TOs when the defense is energetic.

    I also think that ironically the Pacers are the ones running out of gas at times.

    One thing to remember is that they might just not have the talent and are getting big leads on pure effort, catching teams off guard and then slumping when they wear down and the greater talent starts winning out.

    Of course each game has been different too, but with Melo/AI it seemed especially true. Denver was way behind Indy in terms of effort to start the game. They looked tired and I thought they weren't going to recover personally. Credit to them for digging in and grinding their way back into it, though the Pacers poor offense helped.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 11-11-2007 at 10:33 PM.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Munson View Post
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    You are naive if you think there is "some talent" on the Pacers' team. Maybe compared to a college team there is "some talent", but by NBA standards the Pacers are NOT a talented team. They are not good at all. They won 3 games early due to favorable scheduling. Give it about 60 days and they will have one of the three or four worst records in the league because that is what the talent level is.
    Well if you can't see there is some talent on this team, you are either blind or challenged. I never said this was a team loaded with talent, just that there is "some" . You know guys like Granger and JO. Tinsley has some talent when his head is on straight and not trying to play one on one. Dunleavy has some talent when his shot is game is on and his shot falls. My point was that the pacers have a team with "some" talent, there are several layers that have a mix of abilities that when they are on will look great, but when off the team will look terrible. Considering the point of this thread was about the wild swing within games I was raising a point. You were just being an angry *** who needs to lower his expectations of this years Pacers, it is going to be a bumpy ride.
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    I was trying to figure out the nature of the deja vu which followed the confusion of the last few games. It was from following the Warriors. A couple years back when I first got league pass I was watching alot of the W's - they usually the most fun to watch after the east coast games and it was fun to root for the underdog. It was fun to see them win, but you always had to watch the entire game as they would inevitably give the opponent the opportunity to climb back in and win. This was either pre- or out with injury Barron. Identical MO. It would appear we need a Baron. The rest of the team was talented but not stellar, with possible exception for J Rich. Anyway, that's how I remember it. And the similarity, is worth noting.

    That aside, I agree with others that to complete the transition to the JOB system personnel changes are in order. Would at least make it a quicker process. As it is I think we are in basketball purgatory.

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by imawhat View Post
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    I would say the biggest problem of the past 3 years is that we haven't maximized the talent we have by any means,
    I know Halloween is over, but...

    WHAT IF WE HAVE MAXIMIZED OUR TALENT OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS?????

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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    if we go any more then 3-4 mins without scoring vs boston...it will be a wrap!
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    It's still early people and there's a new coach and new players. If before the season started you told me the Pacers would be 3-3, I'd be fine with that.

    I don't like the way they lost those 3 games but we have to admit that they were winnable games that the Pacers were in position to win in the 4th quarter.

    I chalk those losses up to two people in particular and probably not the 2 you all are thinking (well maybe you're thinking of one but probably not the other) - Jamal Tinsley and Jim O'Brien.

    I lay the blame on Tinsley for running the Pacers offense into the ground by trying to take over the scoring load down the stretch and turning the ball over repeated in the 4th quarters of the last 3 games.

    I blame Obie for not pulling JT and replacing him on the floor with Owens, Diener, or even Quis (as terrible as he has played).

    Still we need to be patient with the team and allow them a few bumps in the road through the first 20 games or so.
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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    Default Re: What do all the wild swings within games mean.

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    It's still early people and there's a new coach and new players. If before the season started you told me the Pacers would be 3-3, I'd be fine with that.

    I don't like the way they lost those 3 games but we have to admit that they were winnable games that the Pacers were in position to win in the 4th quarter.

    I chalk those losses up to two people in particular and probably not the 2 you all are thinking (well maybe you're thinking of one but probably not the other) - Jamal Tinsley and Jim O'Brien.

    I lay the blame on Tinsley for running the Pacers offense into the ground by trying to take over the scoring load down the stretch and turning the ball over repeated in the 4th quarters of the last 3 games.

    I blame Obie for not pulling JT and replacing him on the floor with Owens, Diener, or even Quis (as terrible as he has played).

    Still we need to be patient with the team and allow them a few bumps in the road through the first 20 games or so.
    I hear ya.

    Except that I hope TBird is right (I think that's who it was) that said JOB purposefully gave JT lots of rope to either prove himself or hang himself.

    The real test will be to see what JOB does next.
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