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In three weeks we went from a lottery team contending for the #1 pick, to a Top 4 seed in the East with home court advantage, to just missing the playoffs.
Don't worry about where they are at, think about the vector. Right now it's a straight shot to the bottom and the good news is that they only have to beat Boston and then win in WSH and TOR. On paper they maybe get the win in WSH if they stay on track to struggle, but even that seems iffy.
An 0-3 run here would send them back to just about where they started.
As for "too early" regarding the records of the opponents, no it's not. It's too early to write those teams off, but clearly all 3 of those teams are not playing great ball right now and continued to lose to other teams besides Indy. What does last year have to do with Wade not playing for Miami right now or the changes to their roster?
If anything the point works more the other way, it was way too soon to treat a 3-0 team as anything other than what they were last year post-trade which was a firmly entrenched lottery team. WSH and MIA might not lose over the long haul, but the corollary is that IND also might not win over the long haul.
Circumstances matter, home court does too. Denver came in dragging butt on a road trip and the Pacers jumped on them early. Denver found a little fight in them and got back in it for the win.
I'll be happy to cut the Pacers some slack on circumstances too, it's not just a negative thing. If they beat Boston I'm going to go ahead and ignore the Celtics record from last year and that they were one of the worst teams in the NBA, and instead I'll give them credit for beating one of the top teams in the league on their court.