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Thread: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

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    Default Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Warning: please do not take anything Unclebuck posts in this thread seriously - obviously he is joking



    One of the very few interesting topics that came up during the forum party last night was about the Pacers offensive rebounding. I was surprised that many thought it would improve under Jim O'Brien's system - perhaps the theory is that well it can't be any worse than it was under Rick Carlisle. I was pretty emphatic about it not getting any better and I suggested it will probably get worse.

    So I thought, well maybe I was wrong, so I did a little research and I have some bad news for those of you who hope the offffensive rebounding will get better. It won't, it will get worse (assuming OB plays the same system as he did in Boston and Philly) And I certianly think it will be the same.

    O'Brien has coached 3 full NBA seasons and his teams were last in the whole NBA in offensive rebounding for 2 seasons and 2nd worse in the other season. That to me is enough of a trend to draw the conclusion that the Pacers offensive rebounding numbers will not get any better and likely will get worse. Pacers will likely be the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA, if the trend continues.


    The only rebounding stat that is worth anything is rebounding %.

    In the 2002 season the Celtics were the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA at .240. That means when the Celtics missed they rebounded their own miss 24% of the time. Interestingly enough during that same season Rick Carlisle's team in Detroit was the second worst in this category at .242

    In the 2003 season the Celtics were last again, by a wide margin. at .235. The Pistons under Rick were 5th worst at .258

    You might be saying, well maybe it was just the personnel in Boston. Not really, in Philly the Sixers under O'Brien were 2nd worst at .254. The Pacers that same season under Rick were 5th worst at .264


    I hope I didn't lose you in all the numbers and yes I hate stats, but I fully expect the Pacers next season to be one of the very worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA (that doesn't bother me, by the way). If they are any better than 2nd or 3rd worst I would be shocked.

    And for those of you who hated the fact that under Rick the Pacers wouldn't send players to the offensive glass, instead worried about getting back on defense, you won't like what you are going to see for the next several seasons because it will be about the same or maybe even more so.

    This is fine by me, in fact I agree with the strategy of not crashing the offensive boards, but I know many of you won't like it.
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 10-25-2007 at 01:24 PM.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    UB - how do you see Foster fitting in with this?
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Many = me.

    And I based it not on scheme, but on the nightmares seared into my head of Boston beating us in '03, not with 3's, but with offensive rebounds. But then, UB and I have long disagreed with every single aspect of that series.
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    I disagree with that, UB.

    The more long jumpers you take, but more chances for long rebounds, which are easier to offensively rebound.

    That said, you'll be a much worse team in transition D, because the long rebounds you don't get will be easy fast break fodder.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Los Angeles View Post
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    UB - how do you see Foster fitting in with this?
    This was also discussed last night. I see Jeff getting significantly fewer minutes. Jim O'Brien will not play a power forward who cannot shoot the ball from the outside (unless the center can really shoot). I fully expect to see Murphy, Williams and even Granger playing all the power forward minutes. Foster will back up the center. I cannot foresee a reasonable scenerio where two of the follwing list of players will be on the court at the same time. JO, Jeff, Ike, Harrison. Except for serious foul trouble or injury, one of the centers will be paired with one of the power forwards I listed earlier.

    So I see Jeff struggling to get much playing time -- Unless JO is traded for guards, but right now, I would have to say JO will start at center, with Ike backing him up and Jeff will only get spot minutes or when they need a really good defender. Murphy and Williams will get the power forward minutes.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I disagree with that, UB.

    The more long jumpers you take, but more chances for long rebounds, which are easier to offensively rebound.

    That said, you'll be a much worse team in transition D, because the long rebounds you don't get will be easy fast break fodder.
    I'd be willing to make a really large bet with you, the Pacers will be in the bottom 5 in offensive rebounding. A really large bet. Kstat, how can you explain away the team stats in my first post.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I'd be willing to make a really large bet with you, the Pacers will be in the bottom 5 in offensive rebounding. A really large bet. Kstat, how can you explain away the team stats in my first post.
    Eric Willaims, Tony Battie, Vin Baker, Walter Mccarty, and Bruno Sundov...

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I disagree with that, UB.

    The more long jumpers you take, but more chances for long rebounds, which are easier to offensively rebound.

    That said, you'll be a much worse team in transition D, because the long rebounds you don't get will be easy fast break fodder.
    Is that even possible?

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kegboy View Post
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    Many = me.

    And I based it not on scheme, but on the nightmares seared into my head of Boston beating us in '03, not with 3's, but with offensive rebounds. But then, UB and I have long disagreed with every single aspect of that series.
    Once again I hate using stats to prove a point. But Kegboy, these stats might surprise you, they even surprised me.

    I looked up the box scores from the 2003 series. Isiah's last season as coach.


    McCarty got 6 offensive rebounds the whole series. here are the offensive rebounding numbers.

    Game 1 - the Celts as a team got 9, McCarty got zero, the pacers got 11
    Game 2 - the Celts as a team got 9, McCarty got 3, pacers got 8
    Game 3 - Celts got 5, McCarty got 1, Pacers got 14
    Game 4 - Celts got 10, McCarty got 1, pacers got 5
    Game 5 - Celts got 9, McCarty got 0, Pacers got 17
    Game 6 - Celts got 11, McCarty got 1, Pacers got 24.


    Kegboy, you are probably remembering a few key ones that Walter got, but as far as overall he was a non-factor in the rebounding.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Jeff as center in this kind of offense will probably thrive as the center needs to be moving and grabbing long rebounds and getting put backs. This may
    play into his strengths. Jeff starts and Bynum plays the rest of the minutes.
    Assuming JO is traded.
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Eric Willaims, Tony Battie, Vin Baker, Walter Mccarty, and Bruno Sundov...
    OK, explain the Sixers numbers

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    OK, explain the Sixers numbers
    They didn't take a lot of threes...\\Nobody other than korver and Iverson could shoot past 20 feet.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    I thought my head was going to explode when everyone was saying they thought the offensive rebounding would improve. I was so busy trying not to scream "ARE YOU PEOPLE STU..." I didn't even hear UB say he didn't think it would get better.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    They didn't take a lot of threes...\\Nobody other than korver and Iverson could shoot past 20 feet.
    I'm really suprised you of all people would disagree with me on this issue, you saw the drastic difference in offensive rebonding numbers for the Pstons under Rick vs Larry Brown. That is probably about as stark a difference in systems as you can have and I think it proves that offensive rebounding is a result of coaching systems. Why do the Jazz lead the NBA almost every season in Ofensive rebounding - it isn't because of the players, it is because of the coaching system.

    if Jerry Sloan were the Pacers coach this upcoming season, I would fully expect them to be in the top 5 in offensive rebounding

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I'm really suprised you of all people would disagree with me on this issue, you saw the drastic difference in offensive rebonding numbers for the Pstons under Rick vs Larry Brown. That is probably about as stark a difference in systems as you can have and I think it proves that offensive rebounding is a result of coaching systems. Why do the Jazz lead the NBA almost every season in Ofensive rebounding - it isn't because of the players, it is because of the coaching system.

    if Jerry Sloan were the Pacers coach this upcoming season, I would fully expect them to be in the top 5 in offensive rebounding
    we were never discussing rick or Larry's philosophy, though.

    We're discussing Obie's, and while I won't say I agree with his methods, his style really does lend itself well to long offensive rebounds.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    i personaly believe this is the biggest disadvantage to playing a 4 out 1 in offense. There just isnt anyone there to rebound inside when your on offense. Only one guy fighting against other bigs. I would have thought this was almost always the case

    As for this offense suiting foster, i dont think it does at all. He just doesnt have to offensive game to be the centre on his own, nor the shooting. I like Foster, i like the set of skills he has, but this offense, imo doesnt really have a place that makes him very effective!
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Once again I hate using stats to prove a point. But Kegboy, these stats might surprise you, they even surprised me.

    I looked up the box scores from the 2003 series. Isiah's last season as coach.


    McCarty got 6 offensive rebounds the whole series. here are the offensive rebounding numbers.

    Game 1 - the Celts as a team got 9, McCarty got zero, the pacers got 11
    Game 2 - the Celts as a team got 9, McCarty got 3, pacers got 8
    Game 3 - Celts got 5, McCarty got 1, Pacers got 14
    Game 4 - Celts got 10, McCarty got 1, pacers got 5
    Game 5 - Celts got 9, McCarty got 0, Pacers got 17
    Game 6 - Celts got 11, McCarty got 1, Pacers got 24.


    Kegboy, you are probably remembering a few key ones that Walter got, but as far as overall he was a non-factor in the rebounding.
    I don't think it's simply Walter grabbing the rebounds, I think I recall a lot of kick-outs to a wide-open Walter. Prossibly a good portion of those passes came off of offensive rebounds.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    O'Brien has coached 3 full NBA seasons and his teams were last in the whole NBA in offensive rebounding for 2 seasons and 2nd worse in the other season.
    How did those teams rank the season before JOB arrived, and the season after he left?

    If those teams were better bafore AND after JOB, then that would go further toward proving your point about it being a function of the coach's philosophy.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Don't hate stats, all they are is someone counting up all the times some REAL THING actually happened. That's hella better than some fanboy saying "it SEEMED like they got a lot of their misses".


    They spread the floor, they don't setup post position, they chuck bombs. BTW, do you know what happens to long rebounds that the defense gets? That's right, FAST BREAKS!

    Weeeeeeeeee!

    I look forward to 40% of the missed FGs starting in the hands of opposing guards blowing past Quis or Tins at midcourt as they backpeddle in defense.

    Just have JO stay back on defense the entire game, at least then he can get a few blocks and charges taken. I mean seriously, JO is your best defender. How often is he going to be able to be involved in the defense if the possession starts on the run 15 feet ahead of him?

    A team with great 3pt shooting 1-3 players who also are your elite defenders is great for this system. A team with no 3pt shooting outside the SF spot perhaps that is especially weak in backcourt defense...doesn't seem like a good matchup.

    Hey, this is ON PAPER, you never know what the results will look like. But it's common sense to expect things to go more like they have than for them to suddenly be brand new and different.
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    They didn't take a lot of threes...\\Nobody other than korver and Iverson could shoot past 20 feet.
    Um, basically every player on the roster pushed toward a career high in attempts, or a high in 3PA/FGA rate. Korver took 75% of his total FGs from 3. The next year without JOB that dropped to around 55% and IIRC it fell to about 35% the season after that.

    Someone else already pointed out that their 1500 or whatever it is 3PAs ranked something in the top 40-50 all-time in team attempts. Sure it's way better than the #1 and #4 rankings of the two Boston teams, but to say they "didn't take a lot of 3s". BS. Their TEAM 3PA/FGA ratio was high by NBA standards, and more so given their low make rate as a team.

    Most teams that move into the 1400+ range of attempts actually shoot it closer to 40%, which is exactly why they love it. JOB teams shoot it regardless of ability, and that's part of the issue in question in all this.


    Jay was the one who mentioned it in the "Bird tells Shawne not to shoot threes..." thread. The 3PA numbers were extensively discussed in that thread. Jay's last comment on page 4...
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay
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    Let's not forget, JO'B's 76ers team was #42 all time in 3FGAs.

    They've been shooting the three-point shot for more than 25 seasons and there are substantially more than 20 NBA teams. Its not like JO'B's 76ers team was #420 all-time. They were still in the top 5% of teams all-time at attempting the three-point shot.

    He's coached three full seasons, and he's been #1, #4 and #42 all time in 3FGAs for the team.
    And here is my main Philly numbers posts from that thread. This includes a point about Korver's low FTAs in comparison to the FTAs a big 3pt shooter like Reggie Miller used to get.
    BTW, Philly DID NOT GET TO THE ECF. The lost in 5 to DET and 3 of those losses were double digit. They won 43 games. They "only" took 1453 3PAs at a 34.8% rate. ONLY ONE TEAM took more threes with a % lower than that, and that was Washington. The higher volume teams otherwise shot it better, and often MUCH better (PHX for example). And let me throw out the fact that they also gave up 99.9 PPG putting them around 18th I think, and they scored less than they allowed on the year despite being over .500.

    A big factor in limiting the 3PAs was Iverson. Iverson took 27% of Philly's FGAs in total. By limiting his 3PAs to 18.5% (his career avg is 17.5% 3PA/FGA) of his total shots he limited how many attempts the team had in total. Even still AI took 338 at a 30.8% rate. That was the MOST he had taken since his rookie year.

    Meanwhile the good part was Korver who dropped it at a 40.5% rate. No surprise there, he's a great shooter. But the problem is that 74.5% of his shots were from three. Yes, I said basically 75% of the time he shot the 3. The following year after JOB Korver shot only 57.5% of the time from 3 and his make rate went UP.

    Who else shot the 3 for that team - Iggy and Green. Iggy took 142 at a 33% rate, Green shot 105 at a 28.6% rate. The previous year Green had taken 40 less attempts and had a higher 3P% (about 2% better). Iggy lowered his 3PA/FGA ratio the following year and raised his 3P%, his ratio has gone from 26% with JOB to 23% to 15.6% last year.

    Consequently Iggy's FTAs per 100 minutes (easier to read this way) went from 7.8 with JOB to 18 last year. By cutting down his 3PA/FGA ratio he more than doubled the amount of free throws he gets.


    So I don't really see how Philly makes the case for JOB's offense. His guys still shot abnormally more 3PAs per FGA and outside of one shooting ace it wasn't very good. As a team they were still poor for a high volume 3 ball team, and worst of all their ace shooter did NOTHING but camp the 3.

    In fact let me make one other point about that Korver 75% thing. Reggie Miller only took 56% of his shots from 3 once, in 03-04 when he only took 594 shots total and let Ron, JO, Tins and Al be the offense. He was never above 50% any other time and in his prime from 87-94 he only went over 31% 1 time.

    Oh, and Reggie typically kept his FTA per 100 minutes in the 16-20 range despite being a 3pt ace. So that plan for Korver couldn't be more different than how Reggie went about being the greatest 3pt shooter ever, despite Kyle shooting it so well. That's been the JOB style up to this point, and he just made a comment about having DG and Shawne do nothing but shoot 3s in practice. Not hard to connect the dots here.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 07-15-2007 at 04:40 PM.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    UB... so whats the point in getting O'Brien to coach the Pacers if he can't fix weaknesses but make them worse?
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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom White View Post
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    How did those teams rank the season before JOB arrived, and the season after he left?

    If those teams were better bafore AND after JOB, then that would go further toward proving your point about it being a function of the coach's philosophy.
    Difficult to do that for the Celtics, because OB coaches the previous season for about 50 games and then his final season he coached about 30 games.


    But the Sixers stats do prove my point.

    '04 - The Sixers were 15th best off rebounding team, .281
    '05 - Sixers during OB's only season were the 2nd worst OR team at 2.54
    '06 - Sixers improved to 8th worst OR team

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Usually you figure three point attempts generate more offensive boards due to long rebounds and such. That and more fast breaks for the opponent as others have stated. So would the low offensive board #'s for JOB be systemic or more of a coincidence? Interesting.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    I really don't like the philosophy of us taking a lot of 3s. It's dumb and not hard to see.

    However we will take a lot of 3s and that means long offensive rebounds.

    But I think the reason OBs teams don't rebound well on offense is he doesn't want to give up fast break points.

    I think the more interesting thing would be to see how many fast break points his teams, and the Pacers when Dick Harter was Bird's assistant, gave up. To me we are sacraficing one for the other.

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    Default Re: Pacers will be a worse offensive rebounding team under Jim O'Brien

    Quote Originally Posted by Smashed_Potato View Post
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    UB... so whats the point in getting O'Brien to coach the Pacers if he can't fix weaknesses but make them worse?
    well he fixes a few of the problems ... just not offensive rebounds. he likes to focus on defense w/ harter which was quite necessary. also making the offense a little more life-like and less predictable (jacking up threes at random times would certainly make it more interesting to watch).

    there are two big problems still with the JO'B hire: we lack amazing three point shooters and the offensive rebounding.
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