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Thread: Pacers "Market Watch"

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    Member Mr. Sobchak's Avatar
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    Default Pacers "Market Watch"

    I found this pretty interesting:

    http://draftexpress.com/blogs.php?blogid=12

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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Peskoe97 View Post
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    I found this pretty interesting:

    http://draftexpress.com/blogs.php?blogid=12
    Yes, non-loading pages are very interesting.

    http://draftexpress.com/blogs.php?blogid=12

    So, according to this, we're already $8.5 mil over the cap next season with only 11 players under contract? Ick.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    this was posted yesterday but they're still talking about stan van gundy as a coaching option but yet they also mention morme recent news about the laker deal 'falling apart' it seems fairly weird.

    its also weird to look at that chart and see Jeff and Troy on the 'good offense/good defense' side
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    That article looks so out of date.

    Denver Post reported today that the deal is looking stronger and stronger. Draft Express has no credibility.
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    How are you here? Kegboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Yes, I've seen some weird Gartner charts in my day, but this is just whack:





    I guess you could argue that the offensive rating is inverted. However, even with my infamous questioning of Danny Granger at the forum party, no way he should be in the Bad Defense quad.
    Last edited by Kegboy; 06-10-2007 at 11:10 PM.
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Kegboy View Post
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    Yes, I've seen some weird Gartner charts in my day, but this is just whack:





    I guess you could argue that the offensive rating is inverted. However, even with my infamous questioning of Danny Granger at the forum party, no way he should be in the Bad Defense quad.
    There are so many problems with that chart I don't even know where to begin. I think Dun may be the only one even close to being properly categorized in that mess.

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    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    What a strange page.

    Can anyone explain this to me?

    EDIT: Whoops, too late. Same diagram everybody else posted.
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    How are you here? Kegboy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sh4d3 View Post
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    There are so many problems with that chart I don't even know where to begin. I think Dun may be the only one even close to being properly categorized in that mess.
    What, you have a problem with Foster being our best player and Quis being our worst? Or, if they did invert the offense, JO being our best player and Danny being our worst?

    It'd take some serious acid for that thing to make sense.
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sh4d3 View Post
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    There are so many problems with that chart I don't even know where to begin. I think Dun may be the only one even close to being properly categorized in that mess.
    I thought it was flipped too, but I think it's simply what the team averaged if that player played 48 minutes or something along those lines (both ends of course). Thus the 106 average being an expected points scored or allowed over a set number of minutes if they play. Thus a high offensive number is good and a low defensive number is good. I've seen other people use numbers like this, including I think Basketball Database or 82 Games.

    Circumstances can help affect how those numbers look.

    However, while I do agree that Foster as "good offense" is wrong in terms of scoring ability, he is a huge offensive rebounding beast and ultimately that's part of the offense.

    Also, forget Kegboy, I'M the guy that rips on Granger's defense and I think they are right. He was not a good defender last year which is a big reason why his +/- sucked. He was easily baited with fakes, often out of position and in general looked more overwhelmed last year than his rookie year.

    JO as "bad offense" is questionable, but then he also wasn't very efficient as a scorer. Tinsley too.

    Tinsley's defensive rating probably stays out of poor due to his steals. He is a strong ball thief, especially off the ball.

    To me the one player way out of place is Quis. He isn't truly poor at either end, but I think he is a circumstances guy in this case. His numbers I'm sure were hurt by how little he got to play in situations that benefitted him.

    He didn't really get it going till after the trade, and shortly after that he was done for the year.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Also the JO trade was stalling way back when SVG was the front runner. It hasn't actually been that long ago. So someone wrote this up a few weeks ago, no big deal.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    LMFAO @ Jeff Foster having Good Offense.

    Thats like me making a chart and putting Etan Thomas and Bendan Haywood in the best friends quad.
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Someone e-mail the writer and tell him to stop drinking the kool-aid lol.
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    Member Mr. Sobchak's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    yeah that chart is kind of weird. I did like the chart where it showed what percentage of possesions ran through each player.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    See UB always told us that Foster was our best all around player.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    One thing about a possible flip on the offensive portion, note that the USAGE chart right below it almost matches the distribution above. Now usage might not translate to "good offense" in their scheme, but I'm still suspicious. I assume usage is shown because to goes in hand with the previous chart, so I would expect them to kind of agree rather than being exactly opposite as they are. So I'm in the "flipped by accident" camp.

    BTW, the two people who compiled the chart do analysis for a living with
    http://www.rexeranalytics.com/index.html

    Gearan actually did an analysis that has been referred to around here, one of a few that analyzed the chances of getting a good player at various points in the first round of the draft.

    http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=1362)
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 06-11-2007 at 12:10 AM.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Well, if they weighing heavily on on FG%, Foster was our best this year outside of Baston and Harrison. Might explain O'Neal's spot as well (11th). Didn't investigate where they got their numbers from.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    even better is Dalembert having a better offence rating than Iggy in the 76ers chart
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    The page should be closed down. Just goes to show you how wrong a bunch of stats can be

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    The page should be closed down. Just goes to show you how wrong a bunch of stats can be
    That's what happens when you base your opinions off of box scores rather than watching the actual games.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sh4d3 View Post
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    That's what happens when you base your opinions off of box scores rather than watching the actual games.
    I strongly disagree. I've seen plenty of people observe one thing but then check the actual results and find out they were WAY off. Observational analysis is critical, but it absolutely must be tempered by the reality of compiled results.

    Sure secondary (or worse) stats can be misleading, meaning formulas using basic stats to come up with a new stat, I will never suggest otherwise. But too many people will say things like "Foster must have missed about 6 shots tonight" only to see he only TOOK 3 in total and hit one of those.

    Honestly the anti-stat view is a bit too "truthiness" for me. Or have you guys not had a girlfriend/wife that thought the 80 degree house temp was too cold, or the 65 degree temp was too hot?


    The problem with a formula is not "stats" or the twisting of numbers, though some people do intentionally abuse stats, the problem is with the LOGIC of what those mean. But I like a formula a lot better than someone's opinion for a very specific and important reason - formulas SPELL OUT THE LOGIC, that way you can actually understand what you disagree with about them.

    If I say "Dalembert is a better offensive player than Iggy" you can disagree but you can't disprove my view. That debate grinds to an instant halt. You only get somewhere when you can make a tangible case of instances, and like it or not stats are just a count of those instances (basic stats at least).

    You need numbers AND you need context. A formula attempts to put the two together. Then the formula is debated, refined, and a better attempt to put a tangible measure to your observations is made. In the end you find your way to a pretty good measurement.

    No measure is perfect, but god help you if you rely soley on your gut and the truthiness, that's a fool's errand.


    In application to this situation I would like to see the formula myself, how these players got their scores. Then we'd know what the catch is and could adjust their measurement to apply more realistically. And it could be that these numbers are pointing out some HIDDEN truths, stuff that clearly isn't obvious with observations. Or maybe something was flipped by accident.


    I say this all the time - stats and probability are why the internet, your cell phone, MPG video and a bunch of other things actually work.

  21. #21

    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    I've heard some people say that Dun/Murphy's contracts aren't that bad.

    But does anyone truly realize that Murleavy will take up 39% of our cap room in 2010-2011?

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    I just wish people would stop combining them into one ultra-whipping boy named Murphleavy.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    I just wish people would stop combining them into one ultra-whipping boy named Murphleavy.


    You are going to need a genie if you want that wish granted.

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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    That chart = worthless.

    Murphy's contract = pathetic.

    The fact that we acquired him after dealing with crazy contracts in the past (Croshere) = will tptb ever learn.
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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Pacers "Market Watch"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    I just wish people would stop combining them into one ultra-whipping boy named Murphleavy.
    I wish they were only 1 player, then we'd only be soft at one position at a time.

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