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Thread: Top of the Draft Analysis

  1. #1
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    Default Top of the Draft Analysis

    Alright, here's a quick breakdown of the top-5 picks since 1984, excluding 2006. I rated each player a 1-5 and then tallied up the totals. This is all very subjective obviously. Also, I'm counting players scores a their peak, prior to any injuries or whatever, so therefor Antonio McDyess would be a 4 whereas Grant Hill would be a 5. Also, for 2005 I'm basing off of most likely scenario, ie: Dwight a 5, Emeka and Ben each a 4 etc.

    5 = Superstar
    4 = All-Star
    3 = Starter
    2 = Backup
    1 = Dud

    There's 110 players....

    2005
    1. Andrew Bogut 3
    2. Marvin Williams 3
    3. Deron Williams 4
    4. Chris Paul 5
    5. Raymond Felton 3

    2004
    1. Dwight Howard 5
    2. Emeka Okafor 4
    3. Ben Gordon 4
    4. Shaun Livingston 2
    5. Devin Harris 3

    2003
    1 LeBron James 5
    2 Darko Milicic 3
    3 Carmelo Anthony 5
    4 Chris Bosh 5
    5 Dwyane Wade 5

    2002
    1. Yao Ming 5
    2. Jay Williams 1
    3. Mike Dunleavy, Jr. 2
    4. Drew Gooden 2
    5. Nikoloz Tskitishvili 1

    2001
    1. Kwame Brown 2
    2. Tyson Chandler 3
    3. Pau Gasol 4
    4. Eddy Curry 3
    5. Jason Richardson 4

    2000
    1. Kenyon Martin 3
    2. Stromile Swift 2
    3. Darius Miles 2
    4. Marcus Fizer 1
    5. Mike Miller 3

    1999
    1. Elton Brand 4
    2. Steve Francis 4
    3. Baron Davis 4
    4. Lamar Odom 4
    5. Jonathan Bender 1

    1998
    1. Michael Olowokandi 2
    2. Mike Bibby 4
    3. Raef LaFrentz 3
    4. Antawn Jamison 4
    5. Vince Carter 5

    1997
    1. Tim Duncan 5
    2. Keith Van Horn 3
    3. Chauncey Billups 4
    4. Antonio Daniels 2
    5. Tony Battie 2

    1996
    1. Allen Iverson 5
    2. Marcus Camby 4
    3. Shareef Abdur-Rahim 4
    4. Stephon Marbury 4
    5. Ray Allen 4

    1995
    1. Joe Smith 3
    2. Antonio McDyess 4
    3. Jerry Stackhouse 3
    4. Rasheed Wallace 4
    5. Kevin Garnett 5

    1994
    1. Glenn Robinson 4
    2. Jason Kidd 5
    3. Grant Hill 5
    4. Donyell Marshall 3
    5. Juwan Howard 3

    1993
    1. Chris Webber 5
    2. Shawn Bradley 2
    3. Anfernee Hardaway 5
    4. Jamal Mashburn 4
    5. Isaiah Rider 3

    1992
    1. Shaquille O'Neal 5
    2. Alonzo Mourning 5
    3. Christian Laettner 3
    4. Jimmy Jackson 3
    5. LaPhonso Ellis 3

    1991
    1. Larry Johnson 4
    2. Kenny Anderson 3
    3. Billy Owens 2
    4. Dikembe Mutombo 5
    5. Steve Smith 4

    1990
    1. Derrick Coleman 3
    2. Gary Payton 5
    3. Chris Jackson 3
    4. Dennis Scott 3
    5. Kendall Gill 3

    1989
    1. Pervis Ellison 3
    2. Danny Ferry 2
    3. Sean Elliott 4
    4. Glen Rice 4
    5. J. R. Reid 2

    1988
    1. Danny Manning 4
    2. Rik Smits 3
    3. Charles Smith 2
    4. Chris Morris 2
    5. Mitch Richmond 4

    1987
    1. David Robinson 5
    2. Armon Gilliam 3
    3. Dennis Hopson 2
    4. Reggie Williams 2
    5. Scottie Pippen 5

    1986
    1. Brad Daugherty 4
    2. Len Bias 1
    3. Chris Washburn 1
    4. Chuck Person 3
    5. Kenny Walker 2

    1985
    1. Patrick Ewing 5
    2. Wayman Tisdale 3
    3. Benoit Benjamin 3
    4. Xavier McDaniel 4
    5. Jon Koncak 3

    1984
    1. Hakeem Olajuwon 5
    2. Sam Bowie 3
    3. Michael Jordan 5
    4. Sam Perkins 3
    5. Charles Barkley 5


    So our totals are....

    25 Superstars
    28 All-Stars
    33 Starters
    18 Backups
    6 Duds (of which two careers ended due to injury in Jonathan Bender, Jay Williams; 2 ended due to drugs in Len Bias (I guess he could go along with injury as well) and Chris Washburn; and 2 due to completely sucking in Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Marcus Fizer)

    And those percentages would be....

    22.7% chance of landing a Superstar
    25.5% chance of landing an All-Star
    30% chance of landing a Starter
    16.4% chance of landing a Backup
    5.5% chance of wasting the pick on a Dud

    So in total a 48.2% chance of landing an All-Star/Superstar. Not bad. That's over double the chances of landing either a career backup or dud.



    And here we look at each pick individually.....

    #5
    Superstar - 5/22 (22.7%)
    All-Star - 4/22 (18.2%)
    Starter - 8/22 (36.4%)
    Backup - 3/22 (13.6%)
    Dud - 2/22 (9.1%)

    #4
    Superstar - 3/22 (13.6%)
    All-Star - 7/22 (31.9%)
    Starter - 6/22 (27.2%)
    Backup - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Dud - 1/22 (4.5%)

    #3
    Superstar - 4/22 (18.2%)
    All-Star - 7/22 (31.9%)
    Starter - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Backup - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Dud - 1/22 (4.5%)

    #2
    Superstar - 3/22 (13.6%)
    All-Star - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Starter - 9/22 (40.9%)
    Backup - 3/22 (13.6%)
    Dud - 2/22 (9.1%)

    #1
    Superstar - 10/22 (45.5%)
    All-Star - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Starter - 5/22 (22.7%)
    Backup - 2/22 (9.1%)
    Dud - 0/22 (0%)


    The odds of landing an All-Star or Superstar with each pick...

    #5. 40.9%
    #4. 45.5%
    #3. 50%
    #2. 36.3%
    #1. 68.1%

    Bottomline: there are very few true stinkers in the top 5, and quite a few average players, but it's absolutely loaded with future All-Stars and Superstars. There's no easier way in the league to acquire such a player then by landing a top-5 pick, and aside from unlucky #2, the higher that top-5 pick lands, the greater chance you have of acquiring a said All-Star/Superstar. It's also worth noting that the best player on every championship team of the past 20 years has been a top-5 NBA draft pick.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Nice post! I don't have much to add at the moment, but I appreciate the post and all the work.

    I sort of wish we could pull a Spurs next year - JO miss the season, get the top pick, draft the Next Big Thing (preferably a PG - maybe that rose guy?), and team him with JO, Dun, Quis and the more experienced Danny, Ike, and Shawne...
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Why not pull a Spurs this year?

    I wouldn't mind obtaining Oden and trading JO for the pick that lands Conley.

    Oh and this is a true quality post Y2J, it makes me curious what chances there are for a superstar etc. beyond the top 5.
    Maceo Baston's #1 fan on Pacers Digest!

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    I'd really love to see this analysis over the top TEN picks.

    I tend to agree that the "grades" were given liberally, but the data is sufficiently large so this bias has a minor affect on the final outcome.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.
    Payton, Mourning and Hardaway aren't now but they certainly were for large chunks of their careers - IMO Payton was the best PG in the league for the 90's.
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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    why are mike dunleavy and drew gooden listed as 2s when they're starters while darko is listed as a 3 (who, only began starting the second half of this season)?
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.
    I think those are fair. Paul will be very very good and at the very least thought of as a superstar by lots of people. Mutumbo I might give you, he'd probably be a 4. A high 4 though... lol. Webber at his best was a superstar w/ the Kings. I don't know much about Hardaway. Yao is as close to superstar as it gets at 'true C' nowadays. Bosh will be something very close to a superstar.

    Overall I think his grading was solid - and really changing a few of the 5's to 4's wouldn't affect his overall point.
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    I guess my definition of a superstar is very strict and udually involves only 5 or 6 current players in the NBA. I distingush between a star and a super star. Superstar is somone who would be an alltime great. A star would be someone who would be a perenial allstar and be a difference maker for his team

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.

    I haven't seen enough of Deron in the NBA to know what he brings to the table other than what the stats tell me, and I'm well aware that doesn't tell the whole story. However, the stats between Paul, and Deron only have extremely minor differences. The only visible differences is that Paul gets to the line more, and nearly doubles Derons steal total per game.

    What is it to you that makes Deron better?

    -- Steve --

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I guess my definition of a superstar is very strict and udually involves only 5 or 6 current players in the NBA. I distingush between a star and a super star. Superstar is somone who would be an alltime great. A star would be someone who would be a perenial allstar and be a difference maker for his team
    Yep. A superstar is someone who WINS. They have a degree of playoff success, they don't have to win rings necessarily , but they have to have shown that they can will their team to success in the playoffs.

    Kevin Garnett might seem to break this rule... does he?

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Y2J:

    That was a very good read! Thanks for all the effort and time you spent making it for us.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Yeah thanks Y2J (r u a Jericho fan or is that from something else?) That was interesting to read. Though I'm curious as to what picks outside the lottery have had a good amount of success. Something I might look into!

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.
    Prior to his kidney ailment, Alonzo Mourning was a 20/10 player on a top-4 team (Heat) and what makes him a superstar imo, outside of Mutombo and Hakeem, is that he was the best defensive big man of the past 25 years.

    Gary Payton, as stated, was probably the best point guard of the 90's. He was not only a 20 per game scorer and a guy capable of double-figures assists, he's also one of the most decorated defenders in NBA history. You think Kirk Hinrich is good? Multiply his talent by about 5 and you've got Gary Payton in his prime.

    Webber, while currently broken down and a shell of his former self, in his prime was one of the most versatile big men of all-time. Back in the late 90's and early 2000's, Webber was consistently putting up 25/10/5 (Larry Bird-like numbers) on one of the leagues top teams, the Kings.


    Mutombo, while never a great scorer, was the preeminent big man defensive force of the past 25 years. I'd only Hakeem his equal, and even then I'm leaning towards Dikembe. Throw in the fact that he was also one of the dominant rebounders, and while not a great scorer, could get you mid-teens points on a very efficient FG%, and he's probably one of the most underrated impact players in NBA history.

    Yao, Paul, and Bosh may or may not be current superstars (I say Yao is), but they look to be on their way.


    And even if these players aren't superstars to you, they're still phenomenal talent, far better than anything the Pacers currently have. How do we get this level of player if not through the draft? You think Larry Bird, a guy who just got swindled by a bum like Chris Mullin, is capable of finding the next diamond in the rough and trading one of our pieces of junk for it? I sure as hell don't.

    And while very few players bring their teams NBA championships, history tells us the players that do come from the top-5 of the NBA draft. So while the odds of the Pacers landing the next Shaq or Duncan aren't great even if they do stink it up in the coming few years, its better than the 0% chance we have of landing that type of player outside of the draft. Besides, even if we don't land the next dominant championship player, we're still likely get exciting talented players to make the Pacers fun to watch again and eventually makes us one of the top contenders.

    I just find the anti-draft though process a little bit ridiculous, considering outside of a very few, every single great player in NBA history has came in through the draft.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Funny enough, I was just looking at last months issue of Dime magazine, and one of the main stories is on the guards of the class of 2007. The tagline is "The Class of '07: The Best Guards Ever?". The reason I mention this is, common sense tells us most if not all of these guys will do what almost all top-10 NBA prospects do and enter the draft a.s.a.p. In other words, the best high school class of guards ever may become the best NBA draft of guards ever next year. Considering our backcourt is pretty much pathetic, now sure would be a good time to start the rebuilding process, and land one of these guys in next years draft.

    O.J. Mayo
    Derrick Rose
    Eric Gordon
    Corey Fischer

    And not looking at guards, there's also a kid named Michael Beasley getting a ton of hype as a top-3 pick next year. Personally, I'd rather have Mayo, Rose, or Gordon, but if J.O. is shipped out, especially if we land a good young point guard in the process, finding his replacement could be our top priority.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    Funny enough, I was just looking at last months issue of Dime magazine, and one of the main stories is on the guards of the class of 2007. The tagline is "The Class of '07: The Best Guards Ever?". The reason I mention this is, common sense tells us most if not all of these guys will do what almost all top-10 NBA prospects do and enter the draft a.s.a.p. In other words, the best high school class of guards ever may become the best NBA draft of guards ever next year. Considering our backcourt is pretty much pathetic, now sure would be a good time to start the rebuilding process, and land one of these guys in next years draft.

    O.J. Mayo
    Derrick Rose
    Eric Gordon
    Corey Fischer

    And not looking at guards, there's also a kid named Michael Beasley getting a ton of hype as a top-3 pick next year. Personally, I'd rather have Mayo, Rose, or Gordon, but if J.O. is shipped out, especially if we land a good young point guard in the process, finding his replacement could be our top priority.
    That O.J Mayo link was pretty funny.If I didn't know anybetter I would have thought he wrote it himself. " One of the most unselfish players in years"

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    Funny enough, I was just looking at last months issue of Dime magazine, and one of the main stories is on the guards of the class of 2007. The tagline is "The Class of '07: The Best Guards Ever?". The reason I mention this is, common sense tells us most if not all of these guys will do what almost all top-10 NBA prospects do and enter the draft a.s.a.p. In other words, the best high school class of guards ever may become the best NBA draft of guards ever next year. Considering our backcourt is pretty much pathetic, now sure would be a good time to start the rebuilding process, and land one of these guys in next years draft.

    O.J. Mayo
    Derrick Rose
    Eric Gordon
    Corey Fischer

    And not looking at guards, there's also a kid named Michael Beasley getting a ton of hype as a top-3 pick next year. Personally, I'd rather have Mayo, Rose, or Gordon, but if J.O. is shipped out, especially if we land a good young point guard in the process, finding his replacement could be our top priority.
    Outstanding opening post and more good points here. ...and the fact that most superstars these days seem to be guards or SF's, next year's draft might be crucial. If we ever plan to rebuild, now is the time.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I appreciate the effort you put in to going through each draft. However, I have to object to your very liberal use of the word superstar - Webber, Gary Payton, Mutombo, Hardaway, Chris Paul (Deron Williams is better by the way), Yao, Bosh, Mourning - none of those players are even close to being a Superstar and I only picked the most obvious ones.
    You seriously believe that Payton, Penny, Webber, Morning, and Mutombo, in their primes, weren't superstars?

    Btw, I take it your offer of JO for Chris Paul is off the table...

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Sh4d3 View Post
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    You seriously believe that Payton, Penny, Webber, Morning, and Mutombo, in their primes, weren't superstars?

    Btw, I take it your offer of JO for Chris Paul is off the table...
    They are stars, but not Super Stars. Superstars are very rare

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Sh4d3 View Post
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    You seriously believe that Payton, Penny, Webber, Morning, and Mutombo, in their primes, weren't superstars?

    Btw, I take it your offer of JO for Chris Paul is off the table...
    Mutumbo as a superstar?? I don't even consider Reggie a superstar and he's my favorite all time player so I sure as hell will never consider Mutumbo a superstar.

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    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    They are stars, but not Super Stars. Superstars are very rare
    GP is walking through the door as a First Ballot Hall of Famer. Seems rare to me.

    I understand your reasoning, but Gary Payton is Gary ******* Payton.

    Think back...He was the guy leading his flawed team to a Finals and regarded as virtually the only player in the League that could even bother MJ in the post.

    Dude was a Superstar in the sense of quality of play (undeniable Top 5 defensive PG ever and nearly unanimous Top 10 PG of all time), and also a superstar in the sense that he was chewing gum and talking smack in the face of the best player of all time during the Finals in primetime on NBC.

    Dikembe = not a superstar.

    GP = All Time great.


    * NOTE: I don't consider Mutumbo, Reggie, Mourning superstars either. Penny and CWebb are debatable. Webber probably not, though.

  22. #22

    Default Re: Top of the Draft Analysis

    Nice post, I have a couple of points:

    -You're far too liberal with the 5 rating. I wouldn't give that tag to over 4 or 5 players a year. I think a better way to go about it would have been a scale of 1-6, with six being franchise player/superstar and five being a top 20 player.

    Vince Carter, Penny Hardaway, Chris Webber, Alonzo Mourning, Grant Hill and Dikembe Mutombo aren't superstars. To me, a superstar has to be a great player over a long period of time. None of these players have won championships (besides Mourning as a back-up).

    I'll save judgment on the last couple years, but I'm not sure Chris Bosh will ever be better than Jermaine and will Dwight Howard ever develop a post game? Maybe, but I won't call him a superstar.

    -I think what surprised me most about your list was the stretch from 1995-2002. The top 5 is absolutely barren as fas as superstars. Duncan is the only true franchise player and Yao and AI the only other superstars.

    The draft ebbs and flows and last few years might be a boom, for a couple reasons. We finally understand how to accurately judge and understand International talent, the college rule has given teams a better look at players coming into the draft that they couldn't get when you're drafting out of high school.

    I still don't think relying on the draft as a savior is a good strategy (the Bulls still don't understand this after 7 or so years and the farthest they're gonna get is the second round. If they would have shown some guts and traded for Gasol they could have gotten to the finals. Instead they're going to pay Deng a bundle and still have no low post scoring).

    But if we have to rebuild through the draft, I'm glad it's in the coming years and not a decade ago.

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