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Thread: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jermaniac View Post
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    We like to fire everybody a year later after they are supposed to get fired
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    It's a proven fact over the past 20 years (and for the majority of the NBA's history) that if you want a championship, you get it by having a top-5 pick as your best player, usually a big man. Sadly, the once-a-decade (or so) big man thats gonna be the next championship force looks to be in this years draft, so we're **** outta luck. But then again, Ewing and Robinson were suppose to be the next championship big men, and then Shaq came along and and was the next big thing. There's a kid named Renardo Sidney, a high school sophomore, 6'9" 250 with a lot of growing left in him (6'11"-7'1" is likely I'd guess), who's already projected as the #1 pick whenever he declares. (probably 2010). Maybe he's the next Shaq and Oden's just the next Ewing. With the way our team looks now, I have a hunch we'll be one of those teams in the Renardo Sidney race in 3 years. Amd if he really is the Next Big Thing, then I'll take 3 years of losing if it means we finally get out dominant championship player. Of course this is a long ways off, so we'll see how things go.

  3. #53

    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Rare? Pardon me if I'm wrong, but I thought the following players were picked in the top 5 and won with their original team:

    Tim Duncan - #1 in 1997 draft with 3 championships
    Michael Jordan - #3 in 1984 draft with 6 championships
    Isiah Thomas - #2 in 1981 draft with 2 championships
    Magic Johnson - #1 in 1979 draft with 5 championships
    Hakeem Olajuwon - #1 in 1984 draft with 2 championships
    DWade - #5 in 2003 draft with 1 championship

    That's 19 of the last 27 championships...or 70%! I don't consider that rare at all. A landslide victory. All of these players were picked by the team they won championships with.
    That's a wide range from 79 to now. Between Michael and Wade, there was ONE player drafted in the top 5 who won a championship with his original team as their star. That 70% looks impressive, but there's 24 other number one picks who didn't get it done with their original pick. That's not a great percentage for the number one pick, which should be a franchise player.

    Relying on the draft as a cure-all is a dangerous plan. I'm not saying I wouldn't love a pick, but it won't save the franchise. We need to invest in good vets and a good coach too (not to say I disliked Rick).

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    [quote=King Tuts Tomb;573572]That's a wide range from 79 to now. Between Michael and Wade, there was ONE player drafted in the top 5 who won a championship with his original team as their star. That 70% looks impressive, but there's 24 other number one picks who didn't get it done with their original pick. That's not a great percentage for the number one pick, which should be a franchise player.

    Quote Originally Posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
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    Relying on the draft as a cure-all is a dangerous plan. I'm not saying I wouldn't love a pick, but it won't save the franchise. We need to invest in good vets and a good coach too (not to say I disliked Rick).
    Actually, the right pick would.

    Here's 12 of the 25 top-5 picks from 2001-2005...
    LeBron James
    Carmelo Anthony
    Yao Ming
    Dwyane Wade
    Chris Bosh
    Dwight Howard
    Emeka Okafor
    Ben Gordon
    Chris Paul
    Deron Williams
    Pau Gasol
    Jason Richardson

    Not a bad list, huh?

    And here's 9 more, while not big time stars, still have the potential to blow up...
    Shaun Livingston
    Andrew Bogut
    Marvin Williams
    Raymond Felton
    Devin Harris
    Darko Milicic
    Tyson Chandler
    Eddy Curry
    Kwame Brown

    2 aren't bad but are nothing special....
    Mike Dunleavy Jr.
    Drew Gooden

    And only 2 have been huge busts...and one of them can be blamed on a freak accident....
    Jay Williams
    Nikoloz Tskitishvili


    The top 5 of the NBA draft is pretty much a 50/50 thing. 50% chance of aquiring an All-Star or Superstar, a 50% chance of not acquiring an All-Star or Superstar. I'll take those chances over trying to somehow swindle a team out of their superstar any day of the week.

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    Actually, the right pick would.

    Here's 12 of the 25 top-5 picks from 2001-2005...
    LeBron James
    Carmelo Anthony
    Yao Ming
    Dwyane Wade
    Chris Bosh
    Dwight Howard
    Emeka Okafor
    Ben Gordon
    Chris Paul
    Deron Williams
    Pau Gasol
    Jason Richardson
    What are the odds that these players bring a championship to the teams that drafted them (the ultimate goal of drafting a franchise player being a championship). Obviously Dwayne Wade is the ultimate draft success story, but let's look past that (and he didn't do that without a major trade that acquired Shaq).

    It is widely assumed LeBron James will bolt after his newly signed, but shorter, max deal with Cleveland ends, probably for NY, LA or Chi (there's been word his Nike contract DOUBLES if he plays in a large market).

    Pau Gasol has been shopped around for a year and a half and led his team to the worst record in the NBA. Emeka Okafor is playing for a notoriously stingy franchise and I don't see him getting the money he expects. Ben Gordon probably will be traded for a low post scorer this summer. Jason Richardson has been on the market for the last couple years.

    Really the only sure things (that is, players I see staying on their teams long term and possibly leading them to a championship) are Yao, Melo and Howard.

    All those stars look good now but let's see how many are with the teams that drafted them 5 years from now.

    Let's look at championship teams built outside of the draft:
    Detroit 2004-built almost entirely through trades.
    LA 2000-2002-only major draft player was Kobe, and he wasn't picked until the end of the lottery. Major piece was Shaq, acquired through free agency.

    Right now the only teams in contention with high draft picks as their stars are Cleveland, San Antonio and Chicago (a team that was in the lottery for years to get to this point. In fact I think they're a team that exemplifies failure in the lottery).

    So yes, a pick can be the cure-all (Michael, Larry, Magic, Hakeem) but that's a TINY percent of the players. Basically if you don't hit the jackpot, you aren't winning a championship by drafting in the top 5.

    I would rather the Pacers try to emulate the Pistons success. We're already on our way by firing Rick.

  6. #56
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
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    That's a wide range from 79 to now. Between Michael and Wade, there was ONE player drafted in the top 5 who won a championship with his original team as their star. That 70% looks impressive, but there's 24 other number one picks who didn't get it done with their original pick. That's not a great percentage for the number one pick, which should be a franchise player.

    Relying on the draft as a cure-all is a dangerous plan. I'm not saying I wouldn't love a pick, but it won't save the franchise. We need to invest in good vets and a good coach too (not to say I disliked Rick).
    I get your point, but I would be fine picking up Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard in successive drafts. None of those guys have won a championship either. I could list more sad players you could get as well.

    In any event, a wider range gives a better statistical result and drafts from 10 years ago are more relevant than looking at the most recent drafts. It would be like measuring Michael Jordan in the late 80's and assuming he would not get a championship. So it might be a good idea to throw out the last 5 years of drafts from any assumptions.

    Also, that ONE player has one multiple championships and might win another this year. Again, it really comes down to if you want to win a championship. Certainly I agree there are no guarantees. Certainly a smart GM, a good coach and great chemistry are crucial. They can take you a long way and are really a base requirement. But you cannot deny the record. Generally, you need the raw materials. If we can trade for young talent, I'm good with that...it might be a better plan under the right circumstances...but once again, that ALSO requires dumping your own veteran talent and taking a hit in the W/L. Teams are simply not going to give away a player that everyone already knows is going to be a star.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    [quote=Y2J;573590
    Here's 12 of the 25 top-5 picks from 2001-2005...
    LeBron James - into second round
    Carmelo Anthony - out in first round
    Yao Ming - out in first round
    Dwyane Wade - out in first round
    Chris Bosh - out in first round
    Dwight Howard - out in first round
    Emeka Okafor - DNP
    Ben Gordon - into second round
    Chris Paul - DNP
    Deron Williams- into second round
    Pau Gasol - DNP
    Jason Richardson- into second round
    [/quote]

    These young guys are starting to make some noise. This is what it's all about. Many of these teams are brand NEW to the playoffs or are moving on up. It's exciting times for some of these teams. Even if they never win a championship ala Charles Barkley, their teams should be exciting for many years to come. Isn't that the minimum a fan really wants?

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    These young guys are starting to make some noise. This is what it's all about. Many of these teams are brand NEW to the playoffs or are moving on up. It's exciting times for some of these teams. Even if they never win a championship ala Charles Barkley, their teams should be exciting for many years to come. Isn't that the minimum a fan really wants?
    But Barkley never made the finals (and had trouble getting out of the first two rounds) with the team that drafted him. Only when he left did he make the finals, and that's my point. A great many of these great young superstars won't be with the teams that drafted them when they find success.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
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    But Barkley never made the finals (and had trouble getting out of the first two rounds) with the team that drafted him. Only when he left did he make the finals, and that's my point. A great many of these great young superstars won't be with the teams that drafted them when they find success.
    I got your point. Great players change teams and only then win championships. Look at Shaq. But 70+% of the championships are won by a team who drafted the star. The numbers are simply undeniable.

    But this is not even the key point.

    The key point is really two related facts:
    1) The vast majority of the time (Pistons being the rare exception), you need to get a superstar to win it all.
    2) The vast majority of the time, the superstars are found at the top of the draft board.

    You might be able to say it is a better plan to trade for a superstar. But you need a substantial amount of veteran talent to get much in return. For example, good luck prying away Dwight Howard, Lebron, Dwade or Carmello. It will not happen. If you can't get that done, good luck even making it to the finals. That's why the % hovers around 70-80% and why I respect your opinion but disagree with you.

    As for the Pacers, JO is the only valuable veteran piece we have that would bring anything in return...and even his value is questionable due to his body falling apart. We simply do not have the pieces that would lure much young talent to this team via a trade. This will not change as we continue to get draft picks like JT, James Jones, Fred Jones, David Harrison, etc. Granger and Williams are nice players, but will never be superstars and are not going to be the #1 on any championship team.

    Due to a dearth of talent on this team, the choices are a long period of mediocrity or a nose dive rebuild. The restoration Donnie Walsh wanted to do was a good idea, but requires raw materials. That option is no longer available. Too much talent has exited the building.

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I got your point. Great players change teams and only then win championships. Look at Shaq. But 70+% of the championships are won by a team who drafted the star. The numbers are simply undeniable.

    But this is not even the key point.

    The key point is really two related facts:
    1) The vast majority of the time (Pistons being the rare exception), you need to get a superstar to win it all.
    2) The vast majority of the time, the superstars are found at the top of the draft board.

    You might be able to say it is a better plan to trade for a superstar. But you need a substantial amount of veteran talent to get much in return. For example, good luck prying away Dwight Howard, Lebron, Dwade or Carmello. It will not happen. If you can't get that done, good luck even making it to the finals. That's why the % hovers around 70-80% and why I respect your opinion but disagree with you.

    As for the Pacers, JO is the only valuable veteran piece we have that would bring anything in return...and even his value is questionable due to his body falling apart. We simply do not have the pieces that would lure much young talent to this team via a trade. This will not change as we continue to get draft picks like JT, James Jones, Fred Jones, David Harrison, etc. Granger and Williams are nice players, but will never be superstars and are not going to be the #1 on any championship team.

    Due to a dearth of talent on this team, the choices are a long period of mediocrity or a nose dive rebuild. The restoration Donnie Walsh wanted to do was a good idea, but requires raw materials. That option is no longer available. Too much talent has exited the building.
    Really? That's it? Those are the only two options open to us?

    I think it's safe to say that there is only one champion a year, correct? Well then since we all agree with this then we all have to fall into another catagory and only then can we decide if the two options you present to us are truely the only options.

    The two catagory's are as follows.

    1. Anything less than an NBA title is a failure.

    2. Satisfaction can be obtained even though you don't win the finals.

    Depending on how you choose out of the two options above will depend on if your options are correct.

    If you choose option # 1, then your thought is probably correct.

    If you choose option # 2, then your thought is way off.

    I will ask you the following. What new young player did the Indiana Pacers bring on board for the 93/94 season that turned our team around? Who was our draft choice that year?

    That team made the E.C. finals and they did not follow the formula that you have laid out before us. They spent 4 of the next 6 years being a legitimate title contender, what young studs were brought in?

    Again I am not saying I don't want a draft pick, I would love to get Oden more than anyone. But if we don't get this your prediction of doom and gloom due to lack of a rookie just doesn't strike me as an accurate description of our predicimate.

    We've already changed the coach, we'll see how that works. We have to move two more players (at a min.) and then we can see where we truely are.


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

  11. #61

    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    After the crazy playoff streaks we just went through (remind me, what was it? 17 out of 18 years or something?), I think we are legitimately in Finals-or-bust mode for a decade.

    Tell me, did anyone enjoy the Nets series last year? I went to the games, I cheered, I hoped, but let's be honest. It kinda sucked.

    We've been in the playoffs so many times that simply getting there is no fun anymore.

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