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Thread: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

  1. #26
    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyMac View Post
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    As I have pointed out many times less than 1/2 of the top 5 picks in the draft become stars. Many don't even become good NBA players....having some draft picks does not guarentee success.
    Ah you have pointed things out many times to us





    Seriously, nothing we do now, whichever strategy the franchise chooses to employ is going to get us guarantees. Everything management decides to do harbours risks. So, to act like their is some safe, risk free choice out there is simply not true. Let me correct myself, to act like their is some safe, risk free choice out there that makes the team a lot better is simply not true.

    Sure, we could take a safe strategy for the next season by retaining JO, Jamaal and see what happens, but do you expect the team to suddenly get HC advantage or stopping all defensive penetrations or getting a lot better at defending the perimeter? I don't see that at all.

    Sure we could get a FA this summer with the MLE, I guess. So, which great success have we have with that instument recently? How succesfull have we been at all in attracting FA's (and I don't buy in the "we never really tried it before Sarunas"-theories)? And what exactly do you expect to get with the MLE? Some superstar, borderline all-star or a beneath average role player? Not too mention what does that MLE signing do to the teams salary situation? Hint: it would make our situation even more perilous.

    We can make trades, but our teams talent level/pool has been reduced on a dramatic scale the last few years. I don't see us doing anything with this team as currently construed, so why not take that calculated risk on a high pick or some first or second year players that management think are going to pan out (like JO did)?

    I would like to point out that I am pretty confident in this franchises ability to identify the absolute top players and pick them if it comes to that.

    Regards,

    Mourning
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    You Did It Joseph!!!! AesopRockOn's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    Thank you. I was about to make a very similar post but I then saw yours.

    So in other words QFT.
    So no fast black players?
    You Got The Tony!!!!!!

  3. #28

    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyMac View Post
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    As I have pointed out many times less than 1/2 of the top 5 picks in the draft become stars. Many don't even become good NBA players....having some draft picks does not guarentee success.
    This is true. I want to point out that alot of crappy franchises that are run by no-talent ***-clown GMs typically pick in the top 5 annually, so it is a tad skewed because they are too stupid to pick the right guys.

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?
    It just depends on who is doing the rebuilding. Management hasn't instilled my faith in them to build a team.

    Some of you only see a total gut job being the only way for the Pacers. Honestly, I'm afraid of Larry Bird being no better then the GM's of the teams that make rebuilding.....difficult (Celtics, Hawks, & Golden State before this year). I don't like what Larry Bird has done in management thus far. I have zero confidance that we could rebuild like Phoenix, Dallas, or any of these teams a lot of you think would be easy to emulate. We all know that Larry isn't Bryan Collangello or Donnie Nelson, so what makes you think he is going to accomplish the same end results?

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    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Well we know that save the White pick, his draft choices are pretty good, atleast I think they have been pretty good, which is one important part in a rebuilding situation, but you are right there is no guarantee that he won't screw things up, but that counts for about every franchise going through this process.

    I am also doubting Larry is at fault for nearly all the crap people like to throw at him currently.

    I could be wrong, offcourse, but without ever taking a risk we know for sure that we won't go anywhere (except likely further down). Agreed? .

    Regards,

    Mourning
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  6. #31
    Gotta Play Big BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BobbyMac View Post
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    As I have pointed out many times less than 1/2 of the top 5 picks in the draft become stars. Many don't even become good NBA players....having some draft picks does not guarentee success.
    That's probably true, but it is close to 50% stars. Maybe a 20% shot at a superstar top 5 player in the league. Those are very good odds in my book. At worse, you are likely to get very good players in the top 5.

    Last year lacked talent due to the HS change, so it does not count. This year will be incredible.

    But look at 2003-2005's drafts:

    Andrew Bogut - very good
    Marvin Williams - getting better
    Deron Williams - star
    Chris Paul - star
    Raymond Felton - good

    Dwight Howard - star
    Emeka Okafor - near star
    Ben Gordon - near star
    Shaun Livingston - ?
    Devin Harris - near star

    Lebron - superstar
    Darko - bust
    Carmello - superstar
    Bosh - star
    Wade - superstar

    Keep in mind that the 2004 draft had 3 players better than any Pacer in history. Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are arguably better than JO.

    It is reasonable to believe a bad team would pick up the likes of Deron Williams and Emeka Okafor in just two years....or might even snag a Lebron.

    Look at the Bulls. Last time I checked they had: 1) won a few more NBA titles than the Pacers, 2) had a worse team than the Pacers for a few years and 3) are now much, much better than the Pacers.

    Remember when Miami was horrible. Detroit was terrible for awhile as well. The Lakers had some very bad seasons. Even our Pacers were horrible before we started getting some high picks in the 80's.

    If you want a championship, you need that talent and teams are not going to hand it to you. More often than not, you need to pay the price. It is time to get out the wallet and pay the piper.

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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    That's probably true, but it is close to 50% stars. Maybe a 20% shot at a superstar top 5 player in the league. Those are very good odds in my book. At worse, you are likely to get very good players in the top 5.

    Last year lacked talent due to the HS change, so it does not count. This year will be incredible.

    But look at 2003-2005's drafts:

    Andrew Bogut - very good
    Marvin Williams - getting better
    Deron Williams - star
    Chris Paul - star
    Raymond Felton - good

    Dwight Howard - star
    Emeka Okafor - near star
    Ben Gordon - near star
    Shaun Livingston - ?
    Devin Harris - near star

    Lebron - superstar
    Darko - bust
    Carmello - superstar
    Bosh - star
    Wade - superstar

    Keep in mind that the 2004 draft had 3 players better than any Pacer in history. Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are arguably better than JO.

    It is reasonable to believe a bad team would pick up the likes of Deron Williams and Emeka Okafor in just two years....or might even snag a Lebron.

    Look at the Bulls. Last time I checked they had: 1) won a few more NBA titles than the Pacers, 2) had a worse team than the Pacers for a few years and 3) are now much, much better than the Pacers.

    Remember when Miami was horrible. Detroit was terrible for awhile as well. The Lakers had some very bad seasons. Even our Pacers were horrible before we started getting some high picks in the 80's.

    If you want a championship, you need that talent and teams are not going to hand it to you. More often than not, you need to pay the price. It is time to get out the wallet and pay the piper.

    Well put. I was gonna do a little piece on the top 5 picks of the past 22 years, and then separate them by level of play, but my PC crashed while I was halfway done and Ive yet to work up the energy to start it all over again.

  8. #33
    Administrator Peck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    The truth in all of this is there is no one real way to build a championship team.

    There are formula's you can use to build a good club, there are formulas you can use to build a playoff club. However luck, patience and the rest of the NBA has as much to do with building a winner as anything.

    We really truely are not as bad as our ending record indicated. We were never as good as our 61 win season indicated. We were always somewhere in the middle.

    And just like anything that is in the middle a lucky break here or an unlucky break there can alter the course of an entire season.

    I've seen team after team after team dump salaries in an attempt to get better.

    Take Chicago for instance.

    They dumped salary's, got high draft picks moved as many players a year as some entire divisions do.

    Yet they did not start winning until the hired the right coach. settled on veteran role players and sprinkled in some youth.

    The key? The coach, IMO. The Bulls play defense, to steal a Larry Brown phrase here, the right way.

    Seven years ago I fought tooth and nail with people on the old website about "getting younger". That was the way to go I was told over and over and over.

    We need to get young exciting players, etc., etc.

    Well here we are 7 years later & I'm starting to hear it again. That young exciting team netted us years of mediocrity and one year of winning sprinkled with a couple of years of absolute hell.

    What am I trying to say with all of this? Hell I don't know.

    I just know that as a season ticket holder in the 80's I set through a decade of what you guys are hoping for. Some of you obviously have never been there.

    If your 17 years old right now you are litterally looking at being 26-29 years old before the team is a contender again, assuming we get lucky.

    Am I saying don't enter the draft? hell no. I love draft picks as much as anyone.

    But I will say never ever ever throw away good players trying to find the one gem in the pot because for every diamond out there, you will come across 25 cubic zerconiums.

    We have good young players right now. Granger, Williams, Diagu and yes Dunleavy. Get a good veteran point guard, not a fossil of a guard but a guard in his mid 20's and a couple of good solid rotational big men and we are right back into the middle of the pack of th east. That is assuming our young guys don't devleop at all, which I think they will.

    The key though is to find the right coach who will preach hard nose in your face defense. Defense so tough that Shaq wants to say "they are to rough for me".

    You find me that coach and those players and I'll say we go back to the top of the East very soon.

    But then again, I have always been accused of being a Sally Sunshiner.


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

  9. #34
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by 3rdStrike View Post
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    If the team looks good, I'll still watch them.

    If they are still giving minutes to Dunleavy and Murphy and those type of players, then no, I won't watch.

    The losing years have to be developmental. Otherwise the team will be stuck in a cycle like the eternally lottery bound teams you see in the league.
    A real die-hard fan.
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    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Peck, I understand what you are saying and I am fully aware that this course of action that I and some others are advocating has risks I think you should also concede that in the early 90's we also had a young team that was to a very large part picked in the drafts of that time.

    I rather picture that time as our example then the 2000-2007 period.

    I dunno, I agree that we are not as bad as our record says we are, but I also think this team is fundamentally ill-construed (sp?) and has way too many variables ("IF's") to seriously think we are going to be a lot better.

    Ok, so we make the playoffs next year, while doing almost nothing this summer except changing the coach, so we net a 7th or 8th seed and then what? The coach is very important, but the coach has got to work with the players he has and I truly see huge problems in what they can do.

    Ok, maybe we use the MLE further worsening the franchises financial situation for now and especially the coming years when we will want to resign the young players that we like. Then I don't believe you can net a player that is really going to do great things for you with the MLE these days. Just an average player. And then you look at our history of attracting FA's which is not exactly spectacularly positive.

    Ok, we could make a trade for a decent player, but who are you willing to give up if you want to keep most of the young guys and the good players? I know you are not really fond of JO, but I would consider him a good player. Trading him constitutes a serious loss, I would argue. So, who would you want to trade that does not fall under the conditions you gave?

    Why not bring in a new coach and start bringing in the sort of players he feels most comfortable to play with? Instead of him having to play some guys that he has to play, because they have the biggest salaries or are the oldest one the team.

    For all clarity, I'm not negative at all. I think we could have a very good future, but besides a new coach the franchise should make some key decisions this summer IMO.

    Regards,

    Mourning
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  11. #36
    Cheeseburger in Paradise Los Angeles's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Peck RULZ.

    May not be post of the year, but it is certainly post of the day.
    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston Churchill

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  12. #37

    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Bill Simmons wrote a pretty good blog about top 5 lottery picks. The argument is essentially, there's a lot of good players in the top five, but a player winning a championship with his original team is pretty rare. Most of you have probably already read it but here it is just in case:

    Basketball Blog: NBA draft lottery SLOTTED

    Apr. 11, 2007 | feedback
    I couldn't cram everything into this week's 1,200-word magazine column about the NBA Lottery, so let's follow up with some hardcore data to fully illustrate the futility of the current system.


    The basic premise of my magazine column was twofold: First, the LOTTERY system encourages the same thing it was originally created to prevent (tanking); and second, since weighted Ping-Pong balls effectively guarantee that elite rookies will start their careers on terrible teams, the overall quality of the league has been compromised (because we effectively eliminated the chance of an elite rookie giving a boost to a half-decent team). Right now, there aren't enough good teams or enough bad teams -- hence, the nearly unwatchable 2006-07 regular season, when four-fifths of the league seems handicapped by its roster to some degree -- and as the past 13 years have proven, we're much more likely to see a top-four pick make the conference finals or NBA Finals with a team other than the team that originally drafted him.


    One other note that was left on the cutting room floor from that mag column: The three most dominant teams from 1977-1988 came together more because smart teams snookered dumb teams over anything else. The Celtics stole Kevin McHale and Robert Parish from Golden State for Joe Barry Carroll. The Sixers landed Julius Erving because the Nets couldn't afford him after the ABA/NBA merger and sold him for $3 million. The Lakers landed Magic Johnson and James Worthy by trading New Orleans and Cleveland mediocre players for future first-round picks (for instance, Marc Stein's head would explode if a 2007 team made the equivalent trade of Cleveland giving up an unprotected 1982 first-round pick for Don Ford). One-sided heists simply don't happen anymore, so it's harder and harder for good teams to become great (especially with the salary cap and luxury tax hindering everyone).


    Anyway, check out the following top-four picks in every draft since 1994. In parentheses, we put the Ping-Pong seed of the team that drafted in that spot (for example, Dallas had the worst record in '94):

    1994
    1. Glenn Robinson, Milwaukee (No. 2, tied)
    2. Jason Kidd, Dallas (No. 1)
    3. Grant Hill, Detroit (No. 2, tied)
    4. Donyell Marshall, Minnesota (No. 4)

    1995

    1. Joe Smith, G-State (No. 5)
    2. Antonio McDyess, LAC (No. 1)
    3. Jerry Stackhouse, Philly (No. 4)
    4. Rasheed Wallace, Washington (No. 2, tied)

    1996
    1. Allen Iverson, Philly (No. 2)
    2. Marcus Camby, Toronto (No. 3)
    3. Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Vancouver (No. 1)
    4. Stephon Marbury, Milwaukee (No. 4)

    1997
    1. Tim Duncan, San Antonio (No. 3)
    2. Keith Van Horn, Philly (No. 5)
    3. Chauncey Billups, Boston (No. 2)
    4. Antonio Daniels, Vancouver (No. 1)

    1998
    1. Michael Olowokandi, LAC (No. 3)
    2. Mike Bibby, Vancouver (No. 5)
    3. Raef LaFrentz, Denver (No. 1)
    4. Antawn Jamison, Toronto (No. 2)

    1999
    1. Elton Brand, Chicago (No. 3)
    2. Steve Francis, Vancouver (No. 1)
    3. Baron Davis, Charlotte (No. 13)
    4. Lamar Odom, LAC (No. 4)

    2000
    1. Kenyon Martin, New Jersey (No. 7)
    2. Stromile Swift, Vancouver (No. 4)
    3. Darius Miles, LAC (No. 1)
    4. Marcus Fizer, Chicago (No. 2)

    2001
    1. Kwame Brown, Washington (No. 3)
    2. Tyson Chandler, LAC (No. 8)
    3. Pau Gasol, Atlanta (No. 5)
    4. Eddy Curry, Chicago (No. 1)
    5. Jason Richardson, G-State (No. 2)

    2002
    1. Yao Ming, Houston (No. 5)
    2. Jay Williams, Chicago (No. 1, tied)
    3. Mike Dunleavy, G-State (No. 1, tied)
    4. Drew Gooden, Memphis (No. 2)

    2003
    1. LeBron James, Cleveland (No. 1, tied)
    2. Darko Milicic, Detroit (thru Memphis, No. 6)
    3. Carmelo Anthony, Denver (No. 1, tied)
    4. Chris Bosh, Toronto (No. 3)

    2004
    1. Dwight Howard, Orlando (No. 1)
    2. Emeka Okafor, Bobcats (expansion)
    3. Ben Gordon, Chicago (No. 2)
    4. Shaun Livingston, LAC (No. 3)

    2005
    1. Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee (No. 6)
    2. Marvin Williams, Atlanta (No. 1)
    3. Deron Williams, Utah (No. 4)
    4. Chris Paul, New Orleans (No. 2, tied)
    5. Raymond Felton, Bobcats (No. 2, tied)

    2006
    1. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto (No. 5)
    2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Chicago (via NY, No. 2)
    3. Adam Morrison, Charlotte (No. 3)
    4. Ty Thomas, Portland (No. 1)


    Some follow-up notes ...


    • The No. 5 seed (Smith, Bargnani, Yao) won the lottery more times than the No. 1 seed (LeBron and Howard) and the No. 2 seed (Robinson and Iverson). Kinda funny when you consider the widespread tanking that's happening right now.


    • Out of 39 potential top-three spots in those 13 lotteries, teams seeded lower than No. 5 cracked the top-three five times: two 6-seeds ('05 Milwaukee and '03 Detroit via Memphis), one 7-seed ('00 New Jersey), one 8-seed ('01 Clippers) and one 13-seed ('99 NO/Charlotte). In other words, you had about a 13 percent chance of seeing ANY TEAM seeded lower than No. 5 crack the top three in any given year ... which means the league's crappiest teams had an 87 percent chance of grabbing an elite rookie and infecting the first stage of his career with nonstop losing (call it the Elton Brand Corollary).


    • Since 1994, the Grizzlies have drafted in the top-four seven times (with their 2003 pick going to Detroit); the Clippers have done it six times; and the Bulls have done it six times since 1999 (once via a New York pick). Why do we keep rewarding poorly managed teams with elite rookies? Why? It makes no sense.


    • Four teams had top-four picks for at least three straight years: The Sixers during 1995-97, the Grizzlies during 1996-2000, the Clippers during 1998-2001 and the Bulls during 1999-2002. The Sixers eventually played in the 2000 Finals (and lost). The Grizzlies haven't won a single playoff game. The Clippers finally made the playoffs last season ... now they're on the fringe of the lottery again. And the Bulls made the playoffs in 2005 and 2006 but never seriously contended.


    • Since 1994, only three top-four picks won a title: Duncan three times with the Spurs (who drafted him), Wallace with the '04 Pistons (his fourth team) and Billups with the '04 Pistons (his fifth team).


    • Only two top-three picks played in a Finals with the teams that originally drafted them: Martin (the '02 and '03 Nets) and Iverson (the '00 Sixers). Only one top-three pick played in a conference finals with the team that originally drafted him: Robinson (the '00 Bucks).


    • Seven top-four picks played in either the NBA Finals or a conference finals with a different team than the team that drafted them: Kidd, Stackhouse, Wallace, Van Horn, Billups, Bibby and LaFrentz. All of those players were traded by their original teams within four years.


    • Only four teams immediately became playoff teams by landing a top-four pick: The '98 Spurs with Duncan (20 wins to 56), the '00 Hornets with Davis (26 wins to 49), the '04 Nuggets with Anthony (17 wins to 43) and the '07 Raptors with Bargnani (headed for 45-plus wins and a top-four seed).


    • Four other teams became playoff teams within two years of landing a top-four pick (without help of a trade): the '96 Pistons (46 wins, first-round loss), the '04 Rockets (45 wins, first-round loss), the '05 Bulls (47 wins, first-round loss) and the '07 Jazz (headed for 50-plus wins and a top-five seed).


    • Of the 15 different franchises that had top-four picks from '94 to '99, eight landed back in the top four within five years: the Bucks ('94/'96 and '05), the Grizzlies ('96-'98 and '03), the Warriors ('95 and '02), the Clippers ('95 and '00; '98-99 and '04), the Hornets ('99 and '04), the Nuggets ('98 and '03), the Raptors ('98 and '03 or '06), the Bulls ('99 and '04) -- and two more are slotted for top-five picks in this year's lottery (the Celtics and Hawks). That's 10 of 15 teams.


    • The top six 2006-07 teams (Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit, Utah and Houston) feature just six top-four picks (Stackhouse, Duncan, Wallace, Billups, Deron Williams, Yao), only three of whom were drafted by their current teams.
    What does all of this mean? We can summarize it in four points:

    1. The lottery system was originally created to prevent teams from tanking for better draft picks ... which is exactly what's happening right now (as described in the magazine column). So they completely failed in that regard.

    2. The lottery system also hoped to turn the fortunes of struggling franchises. Well, as we just proved, it completely failed in that regard, too. If anything, top-four picks have a significantly better chance of struggling for a few seasons, then getting traded before finally landing on a contending team. It's much, much, MUCH less likely that they will turn around their first franchise themselves.

    3. We've had one major lottery success story so far -- the Spurs winning three titles with Duncan -- which was actually a complete fluke because the Spurs averaged 59 wins from '94 to '96, then dropped to 20 wins because their best two players (David Robinson and Sean Elliott) played a combined 45 games in '97. In the past 20 years, only two No. 1 picks won titles for their original teams: Robinson ('87) and Duncan ('97).

    4. For everyone rooting for tanking franchises right now and dreaming of multiple titles with Oden or Durant ... just remember, you never know.

  13. #38
    Cheeseburger in Paradise Los Angeles's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mourning View Post
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    Peck, I understand what you are saying and I am fully aware that this course of action that I and some others are advocating has risks I think you should also concede that in the early 90's we also had a young team that was to a very large part picked in the drafts of that time.

    I rather picture that time as our example then the 2000-2007 period.

    I dunno, I agree that we are not as bad as our record says we are, but I also think this team is fundamentally ill-construed (sp?) and has way too many variables ("IF's") to seriously think we are going to be a lot better.

    Ok, so we make the playoffs next year, while doing almost nothing this summer except changing the coach, so we net a 7th or 8th seed and then what? The coach is very important, but the coach has got to work with the players he has and I truly see huge problems in what they can do.

    Why not bring in a new coach and start bringing in the sort of players he feels most comfortable to play with? Instead of him having to play some guys that he has to play, because they have the biggest salaries or are the oldest one the team.

    For all clarity, I'm not negative at all. I think we could have a very good future, but besides a new coach the franchise should make some key decisions this summer IMO.

    Regards,

    Mourning
    Mourning, I like your post as well, with only a couple of hitches:

    1) I never EVER want to bring players in to match a coach. It's the coaches job to maximize wins based on what players they have to work with. The players need to make sense together and the coach needs to be right for them. You should never start with the coach and work down from there.

    2) Not even my little old gray haired mother thinks the Pacers are done with changes after firing Carlisle.
    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston Churchill

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  14. #39
    Member Roferr's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    I don't really see any easy way out. It's going to be a little lean for a couple of seasons. Whether we trade JO or anyone else and obtain young talent or stay intact, we're going to be mediocre for a while.

    However, it's been a lot worse a few times over the years. As long as we get players who bust their buns every game, I'm fine with a losing record, but they have to be players with a little upside potential and will only get better over the years.

    I think a lot of posters are bailing out on Dun too early. I believe he can be an integral part of our team for years to come. We have not seen his best basketball yet. We've seen the slimmed down version that Nellie wanted him to be on an up-tempo game. His intentions is to bulk up about 20 lbs with muscle which he could easily handle with his 6-9 frame. He would produce more as SF or even PF (with the extra muscle) than he would relying on his outside shot. I look for a solid season for him next year.

    With a new Dun, Granger, Ike and the players we receive for JO, we don't have to be a cellar-dweller with a 20 game win season. I think we would be right at a .500 club with 2 or 3 younger players (obtained by trading JO). Especially if Quis stays healthy and Shawne shows up. Without JO, we would be more of a small-team like the Warriors with a lot of interchangeable parts.

    I would be willing to ride out a season with 20 wins but I just don't happen to think that we're as bad off as most writers, "experts", and posters on this board think.

    Yes, we're stuck with Murph's contract, but what are you going to do? We could be the Heat who just paid Shaq $20 million for laying an egg and will continue to pay him $20 million a year for the next 3 years, with his efficiency rapidly dropping. Brian Grant was paid almost $16 million this year for nothing, along with NY's Rose $17 million. Would you want to be stuck with Big Ben for the next three years with his contract? What a con job he pulled on the Bulls. Bad contracts are part of the game.

    When Murph first came into the league he surprised a lot of people. He was tough and wouldn't back down to the veterans as more than one found out. He's been a double-double performer 3 out of his 6 seasons in the league. I still think there is a lot of potential there for the right team. I can see a couple or three teams that would desire his contributions as an able post player coming of the bench playing 20-25 minutes or so. This season he played soft but in his first 3-4 years, he was noted as a tough-nosed competitor and I think he will still be that type of player. His stint with the Pacers has probably been the worse stretch of his playing career.

    With all of the above, we still have Foster with some fairly good trade potential. Even if he remained with the club, it wouldn't be the end of the world but I think we can obtain a pretty decent PG for him or at least a reliable back-up.

    Folks, the glass is still half-full and it ain't as bad as it seems. With a new coach, possible trades and players getting healthy, I'm stoked for next season already.
    .

  15. #40
    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Hmm... Ok I worded it wrong then, LA. What I was trying to say is that management decides on the coach and the direction of the team. Why decide that you want to play the team in a certain way, pick a coach who fits in that philosophy and then keep the team, well not really the same, but keep atleast the core players intact?

    I dunno I think that's asking for trouble. Offcourse, I don't know if the franchise is willing to change the core or not or what direction they want the team to go in. But, from what is beying said by both Larry and Donnie we can conclude that they want the team to be less focused on the halfcourt and want more (ball)movement.

    I think the trade was a decent step in that direction, but I think some of our keyplayers just aren't very much suited to that style. Even if you bring in a new coach.

    Ah well... it's all waite and see for us.

    And... your little old gray haired mother follows the Pacers if only a little?

    Regards,

    Mourning
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  16. #41
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    I have become more and more convinced that the best way to go, especially for this franchise, it to mix veterans with some young pieces (the latter of which we already have), and add a coach to make it work. Do that, and you probably just earned a 1-4 year window of at least moderate contention. I think the "right coach" and a veteran starter PG would do WONDERS for this team. Maybe add a vet. big man off the bench, too.

  17. #42
    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Question offcourse becomes... who are you willing to sacrifice? Whether you want picks, young talents or established players/veterans the team is going to have to give something back.

    Or do you expect the team to get a starting vet PG with the MLE? Personally, I just don't see that happenning, especially with the salaries handed out to players nowadays and even more so now that decent to good PG's are so high in demand.

    Just to make one thing straight. I prefer to aim for the younger players, but a team should NEVER forget to have some valuable veterans. A team of only youngsters is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Regards,

    Mourning
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  18. #43
    Banned Big Smooth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by 3rdStrike View Post
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    If the team looks good, I'll still watch them.

    If they are still giving minutes to Dunleavy and Murphy and those type of players, then no, I won't watch.

    The losing years have to be developmental. Otherwise the team will be stuck in a cycle like the eternally lottery bound teams you see in the league.
    I feel the same way. As long as it's a team that is playing hard, has some exciting young players and appears to have a better future ahead then I could deal with an awful season in the W/L column. But if it is watching Murphleavy and similar guys slog along, then no thanks.

  19. #44
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mourning View Post
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    Question offcourse becomes... who are you willing to sacrifice? Whether you want picks, young talents or established players/veterans the team is going to have to give something back.

    Or do you expect the team to get a starting vet PG with the MLE? Personally, I just don't see that happenning, especially with the salaries handed out to players nowadays and even more so now that decent to good PG's are so high in demand.

    Just to make one thing straight. I prefer to aim for the younger players, but a team should NEVER forget to have some valuable veterans. A team of only youngsters is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Regards,

    Mourning
    I'd see if I could get a starter PG who's a little older than we'd all like to be here for 1-2 years before moving on to someone else. At that age, we probably could land him at the MLE. Sam Cassell comes to mind, but he may already be too old. Maybe in 2005 this would have worked. But someone like the SC of a couple years ago. I'm not sure off the top of my head who that would be now.

    And also, speaking of the MLE, I have 0 concern over what it does to our cap. As long as the Simons agree to pay it, which generally the seem willing to do, we can always re-sign our guys because you don't have to be under the cap to do it. As long as you have Bird rights or whatever else you're good to go if your owner will pay the cash. So between that and the MLE always being there for teams in our situation, I have 0 concern about cap space. We're never going to be in a spot where we'll sign someone who's more than a MLE player. Everything we get will be through trades, sign and trades (one direction or the other), and the draft, all of which we can do being over the cap.

    I'd try to hold onto Dunleavy, Diogu, and Williams or Granger, trading the other in for a G of equal talent/potential (if possible). And depending on if that G is a 1 or a 2, fill the 2 or the 1 with a vet for the MLE. Then see what you can swing for a vet. big man off the bench. The veteran's minimum for a 10mpg or less type of big, or maybe a minor trade if possible.

    There's not a lot of clarity here, but I would not be surprised if something along this line of thinking is possible.

    I still think it's time to move on from JO. If that means trying to get another "star" who isn't working out on his respective team, OK I suppose. Or if that means a young guy, an expiring deal or an overpaid "maybe he'll do better here" and a draft pick, OK. But we can't keep pretending JO will lead us to a title. Between him not being an A-list star and his mileage, it's just not gonna happen. Better to move on. There is no quick fix, but the sooner we do it, the sooner we head down the path of something new. I don't want to drag this out another year.


    The remaining "youngins" should show improvement next year, and like I said before that with "the right coach" and a couple of veterans could put us back on a good path. I think we need some vets who aren't considered part of the elite, but a notch or two down that when they play as a team, under "the right coach" that they can function effectively as a unit with our younger, more talented guys to make something happen. Try it, give it some time, then punt if it didn't work and repeat.

  20. #45
    Gotta Play Big BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
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    Bill Simmons wrote a pretty good blog about top 5 lottery picks. The argument is essentially, there's a lot of good players in the top five, but a player winning a championship with his original team is pretty rare.
    Rare? Pardon me if I'm wrong, but I thought the following players were picked in the top 5 and won with their original team:

    Tim Duncan - #1 in 1997 draft with 3 championships
    Michael Jordan - #3 in 1984 draft with 6 championships
    Isiah Thomas - #2 in 1981 draft with 2 championships
    Magic Johnson - #1 in 1979 draft with 5 championships
    Hakeem Olajuwon - #1 in 1984 draft with 2 championships
    DWade - #5 in 2003 draft with 1 championship

    That's 19 of the last 27 championships...or 70%! I don't consider that rare at all. A landslide victory. All of these players were picked by the team they won championships with.

    Add Larry Bird in at #6 pick with 3 championships and the % goes to 81 freaking percent!

    Wait a couple weeks and Timmy might bump that up a bit more.

    This explains something. There's an unfounded assumption on this board that championships are not dependent on the draft. This assumption is running RAMPANT in this forum. You look at the last 10 or so drafts and expect championships to flow from players with only a couple years of experience. Even Michael Jordan took a few years to get started. You have to give guys like Bargani, Lebron, Dwight Howard, etc. etc. time to win it. Those guys are still young and each will have their shot.

    Whether it's 70% or 81%, the numbers speak very loudly if you ever want a championship in Indy.

  21. #46
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    I think this from Conrad Brunner is the best summation of what the Pacers need for next season.



    http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/ask_the_pacers.html

    Question for Conrad Brunner | April 30, 2007


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Q. What areas do you think call for the most improvement? I think that a deadly 3-point shooter is something this team is in dire need of. Most teams in the league don't have a dead-eye shooter, but it seems as if a lot of teams' second-best shooters are better than anyone on the Pacers. (From Eric in Union, Ky.)


    A. Though there is an obvious need for at least one more 3-point shooter, the Pacers' most obvious offensive shortcoming last season was the lack of players capable of making something from nothing. When the shot clock is winding down or the play called didn't achieve the desired result, they often were left with a desperate heave because there was no one on the court with the requisite creativity and skill to break down the defense on his own. Marquis Daniels was just such a player and was beginning to come into his own when sidelined by the knee injury. The devastating effect his absence had on the offense clearly illustrates how badly the Pacers need help in this area. Daniels' return to health will help, and Danny Granger could become that kind of player but there still is a major need for a creator -- a player that can create either for himself or a teammate when all else fails.

  22. #47
    Administrator/ The Real Jay ChicagoJ's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jermaniac View Post
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    20 win season? Maybe Bird gets fired after it. Then it would be worth it.
    It should never come to that. He should already be fired.

    But since it hasn't happened yet, then yes, it would be worth it.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  23. #48
    Cheeseburger in Paradise Los Angeles's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Blue N Gold - your numbers are WAY off.

    You should look into how many championships the other four players in those drafts have as well as the success of all 5 top-5 players in all the drafts you are ignoring.

    At quick glance, the chances of riding a top 5 pick all the way to a championship is less than 5%. And without Darko, it's even lower.
    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston Churchill

    “If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.” - Catherine Aird

  24. #49
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay View Post
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    It should never come to that. He should already be fired.

    But since it hasn't happened yet, then yes, it would be worth it.
    We like to fire everybody a year later after they are supposed to get fired

  25. #50
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    Default Re: Rebuilding question: What do you think about a 20 win season?

    Everyone of the championship teams have a top 5 players in them

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