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Thread: Race for a top ten pick heating up

  1. #1

    Default Race for a top ten pick heating up

    UI made a little spreadsheet to show how close we are to having a top ten pick. Honestly, we could get as close as a #6 pick if we have some critical losses to the right teams. In any case, I thought some folks might like to see how close we are. Currently, we are at the 11 spot however our last few games are pretty easy and we could easily play ourself out of getting a pick. Enjoy.

    Pick Team W L %
    1 Memphis 19 57 0.25
    2 Boston 23 51 0.31
    3 Milwaukee 26 48 0.35
    4 Atlanta 27 48 0.36
    5 Charlotte 30 46 0.39
    6 Seattle 30 45 0.4
    7 Sacramento 30 44 0.41
    8 Philly 30 44 0.41
    9 Portland 30 44 0.41
    10 Minosota 31 41 0.43
    11 Indiana 32 42 0.43
    12 New York 31 40 0.44
    13 Orlando 33 39 0.46
    14 New Orleans 35 40 0.47
    15 New Jersey 35 39 0.47
    16 LA Clippers 34 37 0.48
    17 Golden State 36 39 0.48
    18 Denver 38 36 0.51

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerCrazy View Post
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    UI made a little spreadsheet to show how close we are to having a top ten pick. Honestly, we could get as close as a #6 pick if we have some critical losses to the right teams. In any case, I thought some folks might like to see how close we are. Currently, we are at the 11 spot however our last few games are pretty easy and we could easily play ourself out of getting a pick. Enjoy.

    Pick Team W L %
    1 Memphis 19 57 0.25
    2 Boston 23 51 0.31
    3 Milwaukee 26 48 0.35
    4 Atlanta 27 48 0.36
    5 Charlotte 30 46 0.39
    6 Seattle 30 45 0.4
    7 Sacramento 30 44 0.41
    8 Philly 30 44 0.41
    9 Portland 30 44 0.41
    10 Minosota 31 41 0.43
    11 Indiana 32 42 0.43
    12 New York 31 40 0.44
    13 Orlando 33 39 0.46
    14 New Orleans 35 40 0.47
    15 New Jersey 35 39 0.47
    16 LA Clippers 34 37 0.48
    17 Golden State 36 39 0.48
    18 Denver 38 36 0.51
    Set your % calculator to round off at another value. Two sig figures rounds it off too generally...go to 3. (0.000)
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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    I don't know where you are getting your numbers from but they are off a little.


    Knicks 31-43
    Sixers 30-44
    Pacers 32-42
    Magic 34-41
    Hornet 35-40
    Wolves 31-43
    Blazers 30-44
    Warriors 36-39


    Bottom line in all of this is that it is really, really close. So many teams are within a couple of games - I've never seen anything like it. One or two games can mean the difference between getting the 10th pick or the 8th seed. With the Warriors record and the Hornets record and the way those teams are currently playing - they will finish with the 13th and 14th pick. So it's highly unlikely that the Pacers will get the 13th or 14th pick.

    edit: The Sixers are real threats to get the 8th seed. They are playing better than the Magic, Pacers, or the Knicks. The Knicks have the toughest schedule. The Pacers, Sixers, and Magic all have about the same strength of schedule.

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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    The Pacers are actually 12th right now, not 11th:

    Pick Team W L %
    1 Memphis 19 57 0.250
    2 Boston 23 51 0.311
    3 Milwaukee 26 48 0.351
    4 Atlanta 27 48 0.360
    5 Charlotte 30 46 0.395
    6 Seattle 30 45 0.400
    7 Philadelphia 30 44 0.405
    7 Portland 30 44 0.405
    7 Sacramento 30 44 0.405
    10 Minnesota 31 43 0.419
    10 New York 31 43 0.419
    12 Indiana 32 42 0.432
    13 Orlando 34 41 0.453
    14 New Orleans 35 40 0.467
    15 New Jersey 35 39 0.473
    16 Golden State 36 39 0.480
    17 LA Clippers 37 37 0.500
    18 Denver 38 36 0.514

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    If anyone knows where to check.....how often has a team with the 11th to 14th worst record in the League has somehow picked up the 10th pick in the draft?

    Unfortunately, we're in the perfect position to not only miss the Playoffs......we can miss out on getting the draft pick. "Death Valley"...here we come!

    Oh well.....maybe we can trade for a 2nd rounder.....maybe someone will fall through to the 2nd round and we can find some gem
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    They only draw for the top-3 picks. If we finish from 11-14, the only way we're keeping our pick is if we miraculously jump into the top-3. The odds of that happening are about 0.3% or so. We must finish with one of the 10 worst records if we want to keep our pick.

    We're 1 game back of #10 and only 2 games back of #7. We need to pass up any 2 teams in front of us. The game Tuesday vs Philly is looking like the biggest game of the year.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Key stretch coming up,

    Charlotte
    Boston
    Philadelphia
    Milwaukee


    We need to focus on sucking bad. Boston is so good at that, we can't hope to eek out a loss there.

    Milwaukee has also gotten tanking down to an art form, so that might also be a hard one to pull out a tough defeat.

    The others are definitely losable. It might not be enough, though, unless 2 or more among the Knicks, Timberwolves, Kings, Blazers, or Sixers start winning some games.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    That San Antonio win really hurts. The Knicks have at least 3 key players injured, so I'm guessing they stay worse than us. I'm hoping for the 76ers to stay hot, as well as for the T'Wolves to finish on a high note.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    What if the Pacers wind up with the 10th worst record but someone in the 11th to 14th spot win a top 3 pick. That could ruin their tank job.

    If Atlanta gets the Pacers pick and a top 3 lottery pick, will they have to give the Pacer pick to Phoenix?

    Boston is pretty bad but they are probably in the pack if pierce didn't miss so many games. Same with Memphis. Their organization is a mess and losing Gasol for so many games killed their season.

    I don't agree with Van Gundy about all teams getting an equal shot at the lottery but maybe all the non playoff teams should get an equal shot at top 3 picks.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by sig View Post
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    What if the Pacers wind up with the 10th worst record but someone in the 11th to 14th spot win a top 3 pick. That could ruin their tank job.

    If Atlanta gets the Pacers pick and a top 3 lottery pick, will they have to give the Pacer pick to Phoenix?

    Boston is pretty bad but they are probably in the pack if pierce didn't miss so many games. Same with Memphis. Their organization is a mess and losing Gasol for so many games killed their season.

    I don't agree with Van Gundy about all teams getting an equal shot at the lottery but maybe all the non playoff teams should get an equal shot at top 3 picks.
    No b/c it's the Pacer's pick that the Hawks acquired. Phoenix can only get the Hawks pick, not one the Hawks acquired from another team.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    They only draw for the top-3 picks. If we finish from 11-14, the only way we're keeping our pick is if we miraculously jump into the top-3. The odds of that happening are about 0.3% or so. We must finish with one of the 10 worst records if we want to keep our pick.

    We're 1 game back of #10 and only 2 games back of #7. We need to pass up any 2 teams in front of us. The game Tuesday vs Philly is looking like the biggest game of the year.
    What he said.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    I think we'll either make the playoffs, or miss the playoffs with no pick.

    Looking at our schedule, I can't see us losing enough games to get 10 or lower. I know we're only a game or so back, but our schedule gets pretty weak. We'll either just make the playoffs, or just miss depending on the Magic, either or I don't see a pick in our future this year unless we trade for one.

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    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    If we end up with the 10th worst record or worse...we get a pick. If we get the 11th and luck into the 1st pick...Atlanta gets the pick.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by rexnom View Post
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    If we end up with the 10th worst record or worse...we get a pick. If we get the 11th and luck into the 1st pick...Atlanta gets the pick.
    Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

    Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

    Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.
    I was under the impression that as long as we finished in the top 10 we were guaranteed our lottery pick. If we finish with the 11th worst record and luck into the #6 pick or something, I thought we could not keep it.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
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    I was under the impression that as long as we finished in the top 10 we were guaranteed our lottery pick. If we finish with the 11th worst record and luck into the #6 pick or something, I thought we could not keep it.
    It's the opposite.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    The odds are so much against us getting a top 3 pick, that it should not be part of the conversation. It will come down to whether a couple dogs can pass us....and that Orlando can remain ahead of us. Nothing else really matters. We will get the 9th or 10th pick or nothing at all. We can only hope that some of these supposedly bad teams are hungry to take a bite out of the Pacers.

    A team like Philly or NY is going to be extremely motivated to make the playoffs. The difference here is that perhaps no other team is in our situation who might benefit from losing. If Philly gets the #12 position, they still get their pick...where we would not. That means Philly should be even more motivated. They lose very little come draft day by winning an extra couple games. We, however, could come away with nothing at all....which is precisely where we are right now.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    The thing that always bothers me about these conversations is when someone implies that the Pacers WANT to lose, or are at least tempted to lose, because the team might then drop into a good lottery situation.

    (It's not so bad in this thread, but in others I've seen many people seem to honestly think in terms of teams wanting to lose or trying to lose).

    What gets lost in these conversations is the actual players who are playing these games. Does anyone really think that any of the Pacers players care one way or another about our draft pick next year? How hard they're trying to win right now (or not trying to win) is surely dependent on personal or team motivation. Jamaal Tinsley doesn't care right now if we're getting a #9 draft pick next year. Neither does Rick Carlisle or any of the other coaches or players. They've got too much drama/frustration going on right now to be concerned with that.

    The only people who really have a stake in this right now are DW/LB and long-term fans. And they don't play the games, the players do.

    Sorry about the rant, this might not really be the thread for this right now, but let's at least assume that the team is still attempting to win games, or at worst is giving up or not trying as hard, rather than trying to lose on purpose. I just don't buy it.

    Thank you, that is all.

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    From now on, I'm rooting for every non-playoff (and non-Memphis) team in the West.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

    Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.
    We've been discussing it for a month now, I run updates to the draft race magic numbers basically daily, yet up pops another redundent thread which is then filled with a bunch of misinformation and confusion. I don't get why Mal or Y2J have to jump in and straighten this stuff out still.


    Protection for the Pacers pick.
    This year 1-10
    Next year 1-8
    3rd year 1-5
    4th year, no protection (ie, if they haven't taken a first round pick from the Pacers yet then the Hawks get this pick no matter what).

    Hawks/Phx have the Joe Johnson pick, but it's 1-3 protected which is why Atlanta is dropping games in a hurry.


    The 14 teams not in the playoffs all get some ping pong balls. The worse you do the more balls you get. The TOP THREE picks are then chosen using this ping pong lottery. Then everyone else slots in as they finished.

    Ties are broken with a coin flip, so forget head to head records and stuff like that.

    Because you draw for the top 3 spots it means that the only way a team can do better than it's finish is by hitting the lottery for one of those 3 spots. The side effect of this is that if a team behind you jumps into the top 3 it pushes you down a pick.

    Thus the Pacers could finish 8th and still end up picking 11th, it would look something like this - 9, 12, 14, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, Pacers, 10, 11, 13. The point? Nothing is certain.

    The mathematical odds of being pushed down a spot are about the same as for them to jump into a top 3 spot themselves. The chance of 10 becoming 1-3 is about the same as 10 becoming 11.

    If the pick is outside 10th, Atlanta takes it. This is POST-LOTTERY, meaning where the pick is determines if they get it, not where the Pacers actually finish. The Pacers could hit 14th and be about to hand it over to ATL and then hit the lottery for 2nd and end up keeping it.

    NY is going to be extremely motivated to make the playoffs
    Then explain their record post-Isiah contract extension. They are dropping as fast as Indy. That has been the main point of my draft race thread, I'm showing how the magic numbers keep dropping despite what the Pacers do. True the Pacers could fall behind, but there are just so many other teams floundering and with equal motivation to miss the playoffs rather than be first round fodder.

    Heck, I'd say the Wiz wouldn't mind bailing out at this point and getting a better pick. What's the point of going to Toronto in round 1 without Butler and Arenas.

    And regardless of intentions, these bad teams got these records not by tanking but by sucking. Why would anyone expect them to turn it around? They aren't tanking, they just have remained as poor as they've been all season. The Pacers are the exception, but clearly they made a major trade and that marks a drastic change in their performance.




    BTW, just in case anyone cares, MEMPHIS is very close to locking up the worst record. I think their magic number is down to 2 (combo their loss or Boston win). They are "running away with it".

    Still only gets them a 25% chance at the #1 pick. Think about that, 75% shot that after this terrible year the Griz still won't get the top pick from it.

    Also Atlanta, while they are pushing for a bottom 3 record they stand a good chance of getting lottery'd back out of the top 3 picks and having to hand it to Phoenix. Phoenix has a good shot to pick 4-5. Now you know why the owner was ticked off at the other ownership group.

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    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by rabidpacersfan View Post
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    The thing that always bothers me about these conversations is when someone implies that the Pacers WANT to lose, or are at least tempted to lose, because the team might then drop into a good lottery situation.

    (It's not so bad in this thread, but in others I've seen many people seem to honestly think in terms of teams wanting to lose or trying to lose).

    What gets lost in these conversations is the actual players who are playing these games. Does anyone really think that any of the Pacers players care one way or another about our draft pick next year? How hard they're trying to win right now (or not trying to win) is surely dependent on personal or team motivation. Jamaal Tinsley doesn't care right now if we're getting a #9 draft pick next year. Neither does Rick Carlisle or any of the other coaches or players. They've got too much drama/frustration going on right now to be concerned with that.

    The only people who really have a stake in this right now are DW/LB and long-term fans. And they don't play the games, the players do.

    Sorry about the rant, this might not really be the thread for this right now, but let's at least assume that the team is still attempting to win games, or at worst is giving up or not trying as hard, rather than trying to lose on purpose. I just don't buy it.

    Thank you, that is all.
    Amen. As I just said (and have in previous posts) even if you try really, really hard you aren't going to win much if you are a bad team. These teams were losers before they got anywhere near "tank time". Why in the world would Boston, Atlanta or even New York suddenly be so good that all they had to do to win was try?

    I agree that teams on losing streaks get down, depressed, frustrated, and that compounds the problem. But even if those things weren't part of it, you still expect the lesser team to lose most of the time, or a 500 team to win and lose about the same.


    None of these players even know if they'll be around next year to enjoy the pick. Or in fact they might be traded to another team that might have a shot at picking before the Pacers. So why would they want to tank when they don't even know if they'll be around to enjoy it or if it might actually hurt their situation.

    Heck, some players wouldn't want to tank just because they don't want to see their status made obsolete by a rookie.

  22. #22
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
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    Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

    Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.
    Thanks for straightening this out...I was just confused by a thread UB ran earlier which had a quote from the Rick Carlisle Show indicating what I was saying. I guess I read it wrong.

    EDIT: Ah...now I see...Mark Boyle explained it...

    "
    Quote Originally Posted by mboyle1313
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    I checked this out today, and assuming my understanding is correct, here's the deal:

    Pacers keep pick if:

    A) They end up out of the playoffs (in the lottery) and the fortuitous bounce of the ping pong balls gives them one of the top ten picks (regardless of whether the record is one of the ten worst).

    They give up the pick if:

    A) They make the playoffs, or

    B) They end up in the lottery but fail to get a top ten pick, or

    C) They end up with one of the ten worst records, but the bouncing of the ping pong balls shoves them down to the 11th pick or lower.


    MJB
    Sorry for being slow there...

  23. #23
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Charlotte will not be a gimme. They are 8-5 over the last 13. They have gone 6-2 at home with wins over Cleveland and Washington...and have a 3 game home winning streak. Gerald Wallace has been playing at an allstar level. Okafer is back after missing a month of play. Matt Carroll will blow up if he's guarded by MDJ. This will likely be the Jamaal Tinsley show (yippee, I love that style of play...NOT!) b/c he's guarded by the smaller Felton.

  24. #24
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Tinsley probably won't play and if he does it will be one-handed because he injured his elbow during the Spurs game

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    Default Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Charlotte will not be a gimme. They are 8-5 over the last 13. They have gone 6-2 at home with wins over Cleveland and Washington...and have a 3 game home winning streak. Gerald Wallace has been playing at an allstar level. Okafer is back after missing a month of play. Matt Carroll will blow up if he's guarded by MDJ. This will likely be the Jamaal Tinsley show (yippee, I love that style of play...NOT!) b/c he's guarded by the smaller Felton.
    And don't forget about Walter Hermann, that guy has been on a tear as well! Of course Morrison is capable of heating up as well!


    As for Tinsley, he might play, he might not. He gave it ago against Detriot, and played well early, but I think the elbow got to him late, so we'll see if it got any better

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