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Thread: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

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    Default Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2...x?name=simmons



    the draft part of the article:

    1. Oden: Earned the spot Monday night.



    2. Durant: Stuck at No. 2 barring a miraculous string of workouts that include his making 24-of-25 halfcourt shots and dunking from the 3-point line. By the way, I'm not ruling this out.



    3. Brewer: A mortal lock to become a quality 3-guard.



    4. Brandan Wright, Al Horford, Roy Hibbert (tie): Depends on the team picking in this spot. If they want an inside scorer who's more of a finished product, they'd grab Horford. If they had time to wait on Wright's UPPPPPPPPPPPPP-side, they'd go with him. If they already had a competitive team and needed a center, they'd reach for Hibbert. Right now, these are the next three picks in some order. Somebody in the 4-6 range will need a center and talk themselves into Hibbert. Guaranteed.



    7. Mike Conley Jr.: The best point guard if he comes out. By a mile. I'd be shocked if one of the first seven lottery teams didn't need a potential All-Star point guard.



    8. Noah: Dropping him here for one reason: I found out from a reader Monday that Noah turned 22 last February. Twenty-two!?!?!?!?!? How did I miss this???? For instance, Wright is only 19, Horford and Hibbert are both 20 ... is it safe to say that Wright, Horford and Hibbert will be better two years from now than they are now? Absolutely. Since Noah hasn't outplayed any of those guys, he HAS to be ranked behind them. With that said, I continue to believe that he'll be a good pro and an asset to any team ... even if his best move last night was hogging 30 inexplicable seconds of postgame camera time from CBS's director so he could find his mother.



    9. Yi Jianlian: He's the 7-footer from China billed by Chad Ford as "the best Chinese prospect since Yao." Wait, so he's better than Sun Ming Ming? Are we sure? Anyway, I haven't seen this guy play and won't pretend to know anything about him ... but he'd have to blow away teams in the workouts to crack that top eight.



    10. Julian Wright: Took a major hit with consecutive no-shows in Kansas' last two games. Does he have a little too much Tim Thomas in him? Possibly. If he's smart, he'll go back to school.



    11. Ty Lawson: Based on the premise that two teams in the top 13 will need a point guard, even one who's not quite ready for the pros. You could call this the Ray Felton Corollary. If he's smart, he'll go back to school.



    (Notice a recurring theme here?)



    12. Jeff Green: We covered this Monday: When somebody's major draft-day gimmick is, "I come through when it matters," and then he disappears in a Final Four game ... well, that's not good. I'm trying to look at this objectively because he was one of my favorite college players, so here's the overriding question: The best comparison for Green is Danny Granger -- they have similar games and do similar things. Well, check out Granger's stats for an underachieving Pacers team this season. Would you spend a top-10 pick on him in a loaded draft? Probably not.



    13. Al Thornton, Acie Law IV (tie): I'd bet on these two guys making it over everyone else in the draft, with the possible exception of Chase Budinger (another guy who needs one more year in college) and Brandon Rush (the sleeper of Round 1).



    So there you go. Yes, that's a list in progress.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    I find myself getting a Bill Simmons column. I now hate me this morning.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    8. Noah: Dropping him here for one reason: I found out from a reader Monday that Noah turned 22 last February. Twenty-two!?!?!?!?!? How did I miss this???? For instance, Wright is only 19, Horford and Hibbert are both 20 ... is it safe to say that Wright, Horford and Hibbert will be better two years from now than they are now? Absolutely. Since Noah hasn't outplayed any of those guys, he HAS to be ranked behind them. With that said, I continue to believe that he'll be a good pro and an asset to any team ... even if his best move last night was hogging 30 inexplicable seconds of postgame camera time from CBS's director so he could find his mother.

    9. Yi Jianlian: He's the 7-footer from China billed by Chad Ford as "the best Chinese prospect since Yao." Wait, so he's better than Sun Ming Ming? Are we sure? Anyway, I haven't seen this guy play and won't pretend to know anything about him ... but he'd have to blow away teams in the workouts to crack that top eight.

    10. Julian Wright: Took a major hit with consecutive no-shows in Kansas' last two games. Does he have a little too much Tim Thomas in him? Possibly. If he's smart, he'll go back to school.
    Boy, that just screams "tank", doesn't it?

    Yeesh. Another reason why'd I'd just as soon see ATL take their pick from the Pacers this year and get it over with.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Boy, that just screams "tank", doesn't it?

    Yeesh. Another reason why'd I'd just as soon see ATL take their pick from the Pacers this year and get it over with.
    exactly what i was thinking while reading this.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Boy, that just screams "tank", doesn't it?

    Yeesh. Another reason why'd I'd just as soon see ATL take their pick from the Pacers this year and get it over with.
    I wouldn't feel bad about taking Law at #10.
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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    I'm amazed some of you are taking Bill Simmons word as gospel. The guys a proven know-nothing when it comes to the NBA and his opinion shouldn't ever be taken serious.


    Here's my top-14 list, a much better list.

    1. Greg Oden - Nothing needs to be said. A dominant defender and rebounder with a blossoming offensive game. He's a championship cornerstone and is a lock to go #1.

    2. Kevin Durant - The best college freshman ever. Hard to believe this guy is a lock to go #2 but no one's passing up Oden. He can do just about everything and then some.

    3. Mike Conley - This man must become a Pacer. Sure he can't shoot, but the rest of his game is nearly flawless. He can get to the rim anytime he pleases and is the best passer to come along in years. He's also a solid defender and a good kid who's a local product, that would definitely please the fans, something management has to have at the top of their priorities. Right now he's Tony Parker with 5x the passing ability. If he can learn to shoot in the coming few years, he's the second coming of Chris Paul.

    4. Brandan Wright - The latest in the line of finesse power forwards that includes KG, JO, and Chris Bosh. Easily the best pro prospect on UNC. He needs to add a ton of weight as he's one of the skiiniest players you'll ever see, but his offense is fantastic. His freshman season was about as good as Chris Bosh's, only he did it on a much more stacked team meaning numbers were harder to come by.

    5. Hasheem Thabeet - It's funny, everyones so busy gushing over Hibbert they're overlooking the best young center in college basketball not named Oden. This guys 7'3" 265 lb. and moves like a SF. Don't believe me, watch this.. Here's an amazing number - 3.8. Thats the number of blocks Thabeet averages per game, in only 24 minutes, as an 18 year old freshmen. Unreal. His rebounding is good but not great, as expected for an 18 year old, and his offense is very raw. But he has all the makings of the next Dikembe Mutombo.

    6. Al Horford - He's a much better NBA prospect than Noah or Brewer, but I still don't see anything special in his game. He has some solid skills but he doesn't have the athletic ability to become an All-Star caliber power forward. Then again, I thought the same about Carlos Boozer, who has a very similar game, and he not only had an All-Star caliber season but an MVP caliber season before his injuries. He'll probably go top-5.

    7. Yi Jianlian - I, just like about 99.9999999% of you, know absolutely nothing about this guy outside of what I've read. Still, Yao has been a big success and if this guy is comparable in talent, he's well worth a lotto pick. I've heard him described as KGesque so he'll be a fun prospect to watch over time.

    8. Tywon Lawson - This guys not far behind Conley in terms of NBA potential. If you wanna shoot for the stars at PG and Mike is gone, Tywon is your man. His offense is rough and he's not as good a defender as Conley, but his passing is just as special.

    9. Acie Law - The most NBA ready guard in this draft. He's a lights out shooter and the most clutch player in college basketball, but his passing skills are only average. Unlikely he'll ever be a big time assist producer in the NBA but a 20 point scorer isn't out of the question. Chauncey Billups-ish.

    10. Al Thornton - Maybe the most underrated player in this draft. I've seen prople refer to him as a tweener but I'm 99% sure he's an NBA small forward. Just a great athlete with a great body (no homo) and great scoring instincts. He'll have to improve his ball handling and passing, but he can and will. He's a much better prospect than Jeff Green or Corey Brewer, and I think he'll end up going before either of them unless his age (23) scares GMs off. You know how these guys are, if you've got hair on your balls you're considered old.

    11. Corey Brewer - a bust waiting to happen. Very unskilled - can't shoot, can't dribble, can't pass, can't rebound. All he can do is defend due to his great length and athleticism. He's a shorter Hakim Warrick. Anyone who drafts him in the lottery is gonan soon regret it.

    12. Roy Hibbert - I have no idea where all the Hibbert jock riding has come from lately. The guys 7'2" 280, which means hes bigger than 99% of all college players, yet can't even average 13 & 7 a game? He's fat, lazy, slow, and buttery soft. Is he really any better than David Harrison? I doubt it.

    13. Joakim Noah - Bust city. A nice hustle player, nothing more. He reminds me of a more energetic, slightly taller Jared Jeffries. Funny, people were wondering if he's a small forward or a power forward, the exact same thing they wondered about Jeffries coming out of IU. There's no way he goes top-5, NBA GM's aren't that stupid.

    14. Jeff Green - There's absolutely nothing special about this guy. Nothing. He's average across the board. Funny, nimrod Simmons compared him to granger but Granger was light years ahead of Green in college in practically every way. I don't think he'll go lottery unless a team is desperate for a small forward.

    This is just the guys who will likely go lottery, not my list of top players.

    And for the record, Julian Wright is a lock to stay in school another year, hence why he wasn't listed.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    [quote=Y2J;564111]


    11. Corey Brewer - a bust waiting to happen. Very unskilled - can't shoot, can't dribble, can't pass, can't rebound. All he can do is defend due to his great length and athleticism. He's a shorter Hakim Warrick. Anyone who drafts him in the lottery is gonan soon regret it.

    quote]

    Seriously how many florida games have you watched all season?

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Conley may crack the top ten but there is no way he goes number three.
    There are too many big men of quality who will be picked first.
    {o,o}
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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by owl View Post
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    Conley may crack the top ten but there is no way he goes number three.
    There are too many big men of quality who will be picked first.
    I didn't say Conley would be picked #3.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    [quote=mike_D;564122]
    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    11. Corey Brewer - a bust waiting to happen. Very unskilled - can't shoot, can't dribble, can't pass, can't rebound. All he can do is defend due to his great length and athleticism. He's a shorter Hakim Warrick. Anyone who drafts him in the lottery is gonan soon regret it.

    quote]

    Seriously how many florida games have you watched all season?
    Every single one of them. Brewer can use his athleticism to be an above average college player, but he lacks the skills to be anything special in the NBA.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    I'm amazed some of you are taking Bill Simmons word as gospel. The guys a proven know-nothing when it comes to the NBA and his opinion shouldn't ever be taken serious.
    Sorry, I usually read him on espn page 2.

    Your writing must be on page 1.


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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by pacertom View Post
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    Sorry, I usually read him on espn page 2.

    Your writing must be on page 1.


    He's a comedy writer.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    [quote=Y2J;564127]
    Quote Originally Posted by mike_D View Post
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    Every single one of them. Brewer can use his athleticism to be an above average college player, but he lacks the skills to be anything special in the NBA.

    Just the fact you are saying hes only an above average college player tells me you haven't seen him play nearly enough to determine how good he will be on the next level

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    I wouldn't feel bad about taking Law at #10.
    I would. Big reach.

    Now, if you can trade 9-10 to get 17-18 and a 2nd round pick this year, then you get Law and a flier. I'd consider that. Maybe the Clips would like to come up to 9, you go to 17 and 47 and get Law and Strawberry, maybe Marko Tomas instead (Bird loves Euros).



    Just remember how extremely lethal Travis Best was in college (a 20 ppg player with a 38% 3pt shot his senior year even, very quick too). Now think about how limited he was in the NBA. Tinsley made him expendable to put it in perspective (thus the trade the next year).

    You never can tell, I'll admit that, but then that's my point anyway. I really don't see anything about Law that says "can't miss" that would warrant a top 10 pick (which is why he's slotted at 20 right now). I see "could be solid". That describes just about the entire first round of every draft.

    Conley to me is a safer pick and even he has the downside of maybe just being a Watson or someone like that.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    I would. Big reach.

    Now, if you can trade 9-10 to get 17-18 and a 2nd round pick this year, then you get Law and a flier. I'd consider that. Maybe the Clips would like to come up to 9, you go to 17 and 47 and get Law and Strawberry, maybe Marko Tomas instead (Bird loves Euros).



    Just remember how extremely lethal Travis Best was in college (a 20 ppg player with a 38% 3pt shot his senior year even, very quick too). Now think about how limited he was in the NBA. Tinsley made him expendable to put it in perspective (thus the trade the next year).

    You never can tell, I'll admit that, but then that's my point anyway. I really don't see anything about Law that says "can't miss" that would warrant a top 10 pick (which is why he's slotted at 20 right now). I see "could be solid". That describes just about the entire first round of every draft.

    Conley to me is a safer pick and even he has the downside of maybe just being a Watson or someone like that.
    Sorry, but if you're moving from #9 to #17, you'd better get a hell of a lot more out of it then a mid-round 2nd. An additional 1st, no later than #20, is the bare minimum.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Yi Jianlian
    He was interesting in the World Championships. I worry about the rawness of his game, but he is athletic. Can he turn that into NBA caliber play, tough call I think. If I recall correctly the thing with him was that he was great for his age (and I thought he looked good as I say) but that some suspected that he was actually a few years older than that, which would sort of change your view on him (potential vs that's about all you're gonna get).

    I'd compare his game to Baston's, except he's a bigger player. He dunks like Baston, at least from the baseline. He's pretty good with the ball. I don't think I ever saw him post up, I think he's more of a face up guy like JO without his array of moves, can't recall what his shooting range was like.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    Sorry, but if you're moving from #9 to #17, you'd better get a hell of a lot more out of it then a mid-round 2nd. An additional 1st, no later than #20, is the bare minimum.
    Okay, more than mid-2nd, but it might be tough to get something higher than another top 20 protected first rounder in the next draft I think. Teams can only give what they've got.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    [quote=mike_D;564131]
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    Just the fact you are saying hes only an above average college player tells me you haven't seen him play nearly enough to determine how good he will be on the next level
    He's an above average college player, nothing more. The awards back me up on this.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by mike_D View Post
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    Seriously how many florida games have you watched all season?
    I like Brewer a little more than he does, but how many Florida games have you watched? It took a lights out tournament for him to bump his 3pt percentage to .336 for the season. He doesn't shoot from deep, either, so whether he'll be able to hit from the perimeter in the NBA is a concern. He has plus handles and good defense, so he'll be a solid player. But he's definately not the lights-out shooting, all-around player that he may have looked like in the tournament.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    I didn't say Conley would be picked #3.
    Um, what? Maybe my reading comprehension is off, because it sure looked like you did...
    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    I'm amazed some of you are taking Bill Simmons word as gospel. The guys a proven know-nothing when it comes to the NBA and his opinion shouldn't ever be taken serious.

    Here's my top-14 list, a much better list.

    ...

    3. Mike Conley - This man must become a Pacer. Sure he can't shoot, but the rest of his game is nearly flawless. He can get to the rim anytime he pleases and is the best passer to come along in years. He's also a solid defender and a good kid who's a local product, that would definitely please the fans, something management has to have at the top of their priorities. Right now he's Tony Parker with 5x the passing ability. If he can learn to shoot in the coming few years, he's the second coming of Chris Paul.
    I mean, you didn't say he WOULD be picked #3, but that he SHOULD be. So?
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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    I mean, you didn't say he WOULD be picked #3, but that he SHOULD be. So?
    It's totally different. I didn't say it was cold out, I said it was like a cold winter day. How do you not get this?






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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by 3rdStrike View Post
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    I like Brewer a little more than he does, but how many Florida games have you watched? It took a lights out tournament for him to bump his 3pt percentage to .336 for the season. He doesn't shoot from deep, either, so whether he'll be able to hit from the perimeter in the NBA is a concern. He has plus handles and good defense, so he'll be a solid player. But he's definately not the lights-out shooting, all-around player that he may have looked like in the tournament.
    I never said he was a lights out shooter and if i was looking for a pure shooter I wouldn't be picking him. First off the kid is not a just a good defender, he is a excellent defender.He has a long wingspan and is extremely quick laterally which will allow him in the NBA to be to guard both backcourt spots and the smallforward spot.Offensivley he's solid I don't think hes a 20+ scorer but he'll be able to get you 15-16pts a game eventually,rebound for you, solid passer and of course be your teams defensive stopper.He will obviously have to work on his ball handling and jumpshot in the next level.Just like Granger did when he came out.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Um, what? Maybe my reading comprehension is off, because it sure looked like you did...

    I mean, you didn't say he WOULD be picked #3, but that he SHOULD be. So?
    Those were MY RANKINGS. Not a projected draft order. if it were a projected draft order, I'd have the overrated duds like Noah, Hibbert, and Brewer much higher on the list.

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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    Quote Originally Posted by Y2J View Post
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    Those were MY RANKINGS. Not a projected draft order. if it were a projected draft order, I'd have the overrated duds like Noah, Hibbert, and Brewer much higher on the list.
    Didn't read my whole post, huh? That's cool, it was pretty long. I skip the boring parts too.
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    Default Re: Sports Guy: NBA draft and the top 14 "safest bets"

    I hate when people compare college players to proven professional vets. On the other hand, I love it when they go the extra mile and say they're even better than all-star players. There is no such thing as a safe bet...is there Roy Tarpley(7th), Jay Williams(2nd), Joe Smith(1st), Pervis Ellison(1st), Sam Bowie(2nd), Dennis Hopson(3rd),Jon Koncak(5th), Joe Kleine(6th). I'm sure all of those guys were considered locks at the time.

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