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Thread: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

  1. #1
    One man show ajbry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Cape Cod, MA

    Default Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

    I know a good amount of y'all live in Indiana and the surrounding area, and hurricanes are irrelevant, but there are plenty of us on the coast whom need to be concerned this year.

    The preliminary report came out a few months ago, but I felt it was still too early to post it. Today, Dr. William Gray, the foremost expert in the field, released his current projections for the hurricane season.

    According to his numbers, we should expect:

    - 17 named storms (all the way from tropical storms through full-fledged hurricanes)
    - 9 hurricanes
    - 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 and higher)

    The probability that one major hurricane hits the East Coast (including Florida) is 50%, whereas the Gulf Coast is right behind it with 49% - so if that prediction remains accurate, a category 3 storm or higher will hit the U.S.

    Additionally, El Nino ain't going to be nearly as much as a factor as last year (where it essentially lessened hurricane activity completely), so it should be a very interesting season.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Frankfort, IN

    Default Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

    I can buy this. Particularly note this passage:

    In a global warming or global cooling world, the atmosphere?s upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with the sea surface temperatures. Vertical lapse-rates will not be significantly altered. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures continue to rise. For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period of 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many) in the Atlantic basin. Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and hurricane activity do not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends.
    Part of the normal order of things - Read all of part 7 for more info.
    The poster formerly known as Rimfire

  3. #3
    Member Slick Pinkham's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004

    Default Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

    This is a concern, but last's year's season was predicted to be very bad by most people (these guys, I don't know) and it amounted to nothing.

    It would be good to repeat 2006 with respect to hurricanes.

  4. #4
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004

    Default Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

    Is it just me or is it the media age that we live in that is turning weather forecasting into "the boy who cried wolf"?

    They make long range forecasts when they can't even make 24 hour forecasts. And more times than not, if they can blow something out of proportion, they will. And the media just runs with it like it's a 100% certainty.

    And have they changed the requirements for a tornado 'warning'? Don't they now issue warnings when they see certain things on radar that POTENTIALLY could be a tornado? In the old days a warning meant a funnel had been sighted. For the last few seasons it seemed like anytime the skies clouded and you heard thunder you could count on the tornado sirens going off here. ...going off to the point I ignore them now.

    It is, what it is...

    Here's last season's hurricane forecast.

    May 22, 2006 ? NOAA today announced to America and its neighbors throughout the north Atlantic region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods.

    "For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.


    Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.


    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

    -John Wooden

  5. #5
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004

    Default Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2007

    thanks Bball - you stole the words right out of my mouth. I'll never forget the huge headlines in the USA Today on June 1st 2006 - you would have thought a cat 5 hurricane was 24 hours away from destroying the whole gulf coast and the whole east coast. RUN FOR YOUR LIVES type stuff.

    No one really knows - I certainly don't, but I do know one thing if it is a bad year - global warming will be blamed.

    Bball you are also correct about the tornado warnings. Now they issue them based upon dopplar radar

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