Greg did good tonight. Ohio State All the way.
press pause on the second slow-mo replay around 0:12 mark
Now does Conley go top 10 if he comes out this year? That top 8 is pretty loaded on talent. NBADraft.net has Hibbert at #8 right now in fact.
Horford's got a mean low post game. The man's a beast.
As for Conley, I don't know where he goes but I'd be looking for somewhere between 15-25. I think if he stays in school one more year and gets his shot going - gets to 37-38 from 3 and 75-80 from the line - he goes top 10. The guy really does know how to run a team and break down a defense. The problem is, in the NBA teams will just pack it back in and dare him to shoot - and whatever team he's on will have to surround him with shooters to make up for that - before you know it he's a 4th year pro who never developed an outside shot because it wasn't what his team needed.
Someone who impressed me a lot in the tourney was Byers (sp?) from Vandy. Obviously at SG. His season numbers weren't all that great - 18 ppg or something - but he really showed some game. Not sure where he's rated but he's the guy who climbed during the tourney for me - top 15 anyway, maybe the 1st backcourt player picked.
IMO, Horford is a lock to be a good PF in the NBA. What sets him apart is his ability to BOTH hit the outside shot AND post up. Hibbert has some skills and size so he will be a decent player.
Oden does not look better than these guys at this point, but I think that will change. Horford and Hibbert, both juniors, scored about 5ppg as freshmen. Oden is averaging 15.5 in an injury limited freshman season. Oden does get out of position and make silly fouls, but that will change with more experience. Since he is not as fully developed as these other guys, it will be more of a risk to draft him...so perhaps he will drop some...
Horford has the skills to be an NBA all-star eventually - he does need to get a 12-15 foot shot he can depend on. IMO Hibbert will be decent but no more than that. Though I gotta say I almost fell off the couch when he hit that 20-footer.
What's interesting is I think Oden's game would be helped as much as, if not more than Conley's if he stayed in another year. It's sort of a useless conversation. He'll be the top pick and how can you tell him to stay in school? But there are a lot of pieces to his game that need work.
Some of that's just bad habits he's gotten into during the tourney. A couple of things he's doing that he didn't during the season. First, he was excellent at keeping his body off little guys and just waiting until they put the ball up and going at it. Now he's coming out and challenging guards as they drive. That's fine if you're 6-4 but when you're 7' they'll throw their body into you and you'll rack up the fouls. The other thing is he's gone to reaching down and over to block shots. During the season one of the things I was most impressed with was how he stayed long and perpendicular and just tried to tip the ball away.
In the NBA he'll need a shot he can hit from 12-15 feet. Maybe he can extend the jump hook but IMO he needs to develop a jump shot from there. Right now his footwork in the post is very good but his footwork away from the basket is very bad. As good of a leaper as he is, he should be able to combine his drop-step with a nice turnaround which would make him almost unstoppable. He should be able to elevate over just about anyone. He also needs to learn to pass out of the double better.
He'll be the number 1 pick anyway so I guess there isn't any point in spending much time on that. But he'll be going against guys Hibbert's size almost every night in the pros.
I'm praying Conley enters, then he MIGHT be around when we pick this year.(IF we pick this year, I think we will).
I convinced this kid will be a player. He might not start next year but we'd be set at pg for the next decade.
And he's a WINNER.
Gotta get him....
If the Pacers somehow end up with the 10th pick in the draft, I think Conley goes top 10 THIS year.
I was thinking of this....but if drafting Conley or Law is too high for a 10th pick......why don't we trade down?
There has got to be some team that wants a decent top 10 SF or PF?
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It's a mistake for Conley to enter this year. He's a short point guard by NBA standards. He has long arms and is lightning quick, but he's still short. Short, quick point guards need perimeter shooting (18-20 foot range min) to create space for themselves. No one will respect his outside shooting, so they can play off him and he'll be ineffective.
The guy is shooting 30% from the college 3-pt line.
Looking down a list of young PG types without much height from the last 7 or 8 years:
TJ Ford, Paul, Marbury, Bibby, Davis, Felton, Duhon, Tinsley, Hinrich, Francis, Jason Williams, Derron Williams, Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, Andre Miller.
All of these guys made pretty quick impacts for their ballclubs. The only two who were worse outside shooters than Conley? Andre Miller and TJ Ford. Ford gets banged up because he's forced to drive the lane to create things, and Miller's career has taken a downward turn early. The fact that Tinsley was a much better outside shooter coming into the league than Conley should tell you something.
Conley needs a full year without Oden and Butler, where he has sole PG duty in a more open offense with Cook and Lighty. If he gets his 3-pt shooting up to the upper 30s/low 40s and adds another 4-5 ppg while making the same good decisions, he's top 5 next year. Right now, he's mid first round.
Right now, what the Pacers need more than anything is a guy who can create his own shot. Dunleavy and Murphy will never be able to do this, and Granger seems hesitant at times to do so. Only O'Neal can. So he gets doubled. Conley could be that player if defenders respected his shooting ability, but they won't. Not yet anyway. Get a guy who can create opportunities, and get a vet PG for the exemption as a stop gap measure for Tinsley.
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He shoots less than two shots from 20 feet per game. He only shoots them when he is wide open, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but these shots will be contested in the NBA. He only hits 30% of these shots. Any way you cut it, that's not good enough.
I dunno, Tony Parker only shoots layups and he is doing pretty well for himself.
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Actually, you're right. We just need to keep the other defenders busy guarding guys. We can trade O'Neal and Granger straight up for Duncan and Ginobili. That should do it. Then we can let Conley go to the hoop.
Noah = Horford > Oden
we'll see tonight.
08 and Beyond
For right now, I unfortunately think you're right. I see Oden committing more cheap fouls tonight due to inexperience.
Oden is under a pretty big microscope and I think Packer was a little unfair to him the other night. A few other guys' first year in college. Or their second year if they didn't play HS ball in the US:
27 mpg, 14 pts, 11 reb, 61%fg (soph)
37 mpg, 17 pts, 13 reb, 59%fg (soph)
29 mpg, 13 pts, 8 reb, 63%fg
28 mpg, 14 pts, 12 reb, 57%fg
28 mpg, 13 pts, 7 reb, 60%fg
26 mpg, 11 pts, 11 reb, 71%fg (soph)
If you're wondering, these are the players in order: Olajuwon, Duncan, Ewing, O'Neal, Mourning, and Mutombo.
When you look at it that way, Oden's 15 pts, 10 reb, and 61% fg in 29 minutes doesn't look too bad.
Well NBADraft.net finally added Conley and he is currently listed as the 12th overall pick. That could certainly go up in the next few months though.
Why Not Us ?
Too funny. Doesn't this look silly now.
Florida > OSU
BUT Oden >> Horford > Noah
Oden is a freshman playing against the best frontline in college basketball. Horford, Speights, Noah and Richard could not stop him.
BTW, Noah is an overrated wussy. Certainly he goes after Oden and Horford in the draft.
I can't believe anyone could possibly even compare Noah to Horford let alone Oden. Oden will be a great NBA player and Horford could easily develop into one. Noah, however, wont be anything more then a 10/7 guy on any given night. He may be scrappy and he may try, but he has no offensive game at all and has no shot outside of 10 feet of the basket. Jeff Foster with an even smaller body and quite possibly less offensive potency.
I told you all Noah was extremely overrated, and Oden was going to be a monster. I feel bad for whatever team gets suckered into drafting Noah Top 5.
And I would trade ANYTHING and EVERYTHING possible for Oden.
Sorry, Rob. I warned you about Noah, and I know you hate Oden, but he really is that good. And I don't say that lightly.
It may take 3-4 years for Oden to adjust to the NBA, but he's going to be dominant when he does. In 3-4 years, Noah may not even be in the league.