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Thread: Tank-o-Meter

  1. #1
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Tank-o-Meter

    No, this is not Baghdad, Iraq. I doubt they have any Pacer decals on their tanks.

    The question is, are you rooting for the team to win a draft pick or win a respectable number of games the rest of the year?

  2. #2
    Fat, Drunk and Stupid Lord Helmet's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    I want a respectable number of wins. **** rooting to lose. I hate that.

  3. #3
    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Isn't the pick only top 10 protected? We are now tied for the 16th worst record in the league. I think we are too good to drop that many spots.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    I have tickets @miami and @orlando! They better whoop the florida teams!

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    well if any of you have the delusion of getting a top 3 pick they would pick lose...Might as well get SOME playoff experience for our young guys like danger and shawne (hopefully)
    and anything can happen in a 7 game series
    "GIMMIE DAT!"-DANGER

  6. #6
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by SycamoreKen View Post
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    Isn't the pick only top 10 protected? We are now tied for the 16th worst record in the league. I think we are too good to drop that many spots.
    There is a large pack of teams just a couple games back from us. There are only 6 or 7 teams that are highly unlikely to pass us. Considering JO has kept this team afloat all year and will be out awhile and not healthy the rest of the year...and Quis is gimpy...and based on our schedule, I think it's very possible the complexion will change by the end of March.

    Here is the schedule through March. Many of the home games will be very tough wins.

    vs Philadelphia - red hot right now
    at Cleveland
    at Minnesota
    vs Washington
    vs Atlanta
    at Houston
    at San Antonio
    vs Miami - kicking it into high gear
    vs Chicago
    vs Cleveland
    at New Jersey
    at Orlando - has been losing but only because of a brutal schedule

  7. #7
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    There are only 6 or 7 teams that are highly unlikely to pass us.
    Pacers current max loss potential - 53
    Here's the "competition" with their magic numbers (any combo of a Pacer win or their loss reduces the number. This is for a tie, add 1 for outright worse. And then I'll put up something about their expected losses if you assume they will continue to win at the the rate they have just been at. So if a team has 20 games left I'll use their record in the previous 20 games.

    Memphis - 48 (5)
    Just went 1-9, they'll do 5 even without the Pacers winning.

    Boston - 43 (10)
    Just went 6-15, that hits the 10 easily.

    Charlotte - 40 (13)
    Just went 7-13, they make the mark all on their own too.

    Millwaukee - 39 (14)
    Just went 6-14, also hits the mark by themselves.

    Atlanta - 39 (14)
    Just went 7-12, so if they keep that pace the Pacers could win no more than 2 games to pass them (ie, not likely)

    Philly - 38 (15)
    Just went 12-8, that could put them past the Pacers if Indy wins no more than 6.

    Seattle - 37 (16)
    Just went 9-11, Pacers could only win 4 to finish behind them.

    Portland - 36 (17)
    Just went 9-12, Pacers can win no more than 4 to finish behind them.

    GS - 35 (18)
    Just went 8-10, Pacers can win no more than 7 and end up behind them.

    Orlando - 34 (19)
    Just went 6-13, Pacers can win no more than 5 here.

    OKC - 34 (19)
    Just went 11-9, Pacers could win up to 9 games and remain behind them.

    NJ - 34 (19)
    Just went 8-12, Pacers could win 6 and stay behind them.

    NY - 34 (19)
    Just went 10-10, 8 wins keeps Indy behind them.

    MIN - 34 (19)
    Just went 7-15, so the Pacers could only win 4 and finish behind them.

    SAC - 33 (20)
    Just went 11-10, so winning 9 keeps the Pacers behind them.

    So to recap in terms of PROJECTED (ie, other team's final record projected) Pacers wins that would put Indy ahead of the team (and worse in terms of draft pick) going from fewest wins needed by Indy to most:
    0 MEM
    0 BOS
    0 CHA
    0 MIL
    2 ATL

    4 SEA
    4 POR
    4 MIN
    5 ORL

    6 PHI
    6 NJ
    7 GS
    8 NY
    9 OKC
    9 SAC

    I think the Pacers win at least 5 games the rest of the way, perhaps 7-8 even. So I'd say that 9 teams at least are definitely ahead of the Pacers. It could be close if teams like SAC stay hot, and of course PHI and NY have to stay hot as well.


    Oh yeah, and if you get the 10th spot you have to hope that teams 11-14 don't hit the lottery for one of the top 3 spots or you wind up right back out of your pick.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    im not a fan of tanking, Go Pacers!
    If you havin' depth problems, I feel bad for you son; I got 99 problems but a bench ain't one! - Hicks
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  9. #9
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    at Orlando - has been losing but only because of a brutal schedule
    First off, the Magic still have to face UTH, TOR and MIA at home, plus hit the road vs HOU, MIA, TOR, DET and WSH...plus the Knicks too who will be fighting them for a playoff spot.

    Secondly, while they have lost to tough teams recently, their slide began with losses @OKC, ATL, @ATL, NY, @MIL, @NJ, @NY. In other words, they just aren't very good, it's not the schedule causing it.

    Third, even when they were playing well the Pacers beat them.


    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
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    im not a fan of tanking, Go Pacers!
    Amen. Let's focus on the real drama, can the Pacers hold off the Nets and Knicks to get into the playoffs? And then can they get things back on track by then, enough to perhaps win a first round series? That's where a fan's focus should be considering the current circumstances.

    As posted elsewhere, the chance of the #8-10 pick just being a decent starter is around 50/50 or something. The pick isn't a very certain thing at all. Win the fans back by winning some playoff games instead.

  10. #10
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Third, even when they were playing well the Pacers beat them.
    JO and Quis are out and Jack and Al are gone. Any historical analysis needs to be thrown out the window. These Pacers are not going to be the same team you watched earlier this year.

    Instead, we will be relying on Ike, Murphy, Baston and Foster to hold down the interior. Harrison has proven he will fail, so he doesn't count. It's tough to score with no post game and no perimeter shooting...especially shooting for a back court that will be under even more pressure without a post threat. Without JO posting up and Quis driving into the paint, we are in real trouble against every team we play...even the really bad ones.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Oh yeah, and if you get the 10th spot you have to hope that teams 11-14 don't hit the lottery for one of the top 3 spots or you wind up right back out of your pick.
    Then we'd all look like ***holes now wouldn't we?

  12. #12
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by LoneGranger33 View Post
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    Then we'd all look like ***holes now wouldn't we?
    You are absolutely right about that. That is a worse case scenario that might even be the most likely scenario for this team. Certainly none of us wants that to happen. As a result, to me at least, it comes down to whether I think the team can make the playoffs. This is the first time this century that I am convinced we will not make the playoffs.

    There are 4 teams (possibly 5 if Philly beats us) fighting for the last two spots and we are not healthy and are sinking fast. Without JO and Quis healthy, I truly doubt we will be in the top two of that group...particularly with our difficult schedule. We have injected two bench players with poor defensive abilities into the starting lineup at a key time of the season. Not exactly a recipe for success down the stretch.

    ...and even if we do make the playoffs, it will only be one series against Detroit. Then next year, the big issue will be whether JO will opt out of a team lacking talent already. It is likely a top 10 draft pick in a deep draft would net another Granger level talent. That could make a big difference in JO's decision and the complexion of the team for next year.

  13. #13
    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    A top 10 pick is not going to fix this team. Also, JO is not going to walk away from the money left on his contract. Demand a trade? Maybe, but no one walks away from 60 million in the bank. But we have already had this discussion.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by SycamoreKen View Post
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    A top 10 pick is not going to fix this team. Also, JO is not going to walk away from the money left on his contract. Demand a trade? Maybe, but no one walks away from 60 million in the bank. But we have already had this discussion.
    A top 10 pick wouldn't be a panacea but it would most definitely help movement in the right direction. I think it's unlikely we get the pick, but if we continue to suck, and there's no reason to think we won't, and it somehow works out on it's own, I will be extremely happy. I'm not rooting for us to lose for that reason, but it's mere possibility makes watching each successive debacle marginally more tolerable. HYPOTHETICALLY better alternative to watching us be a 1st round sacrificial lamb again.

  15. #15
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by SycamoreKen View Post
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    A top 10 pick is not going to fix this team. Also, JO is not going to walk away from the money left on his contract. Demand a trade? Maybe, but no one walks away from 60 million in the bank. But we have already had this discussion.
    No, a top 10 pick even in this deep draft will not fix this team by itself but it is a step in the right direction...one of several we need to start making asap. ...but I think some have forgot just how good a top 10 pick can be.

    ..and this team will not magically become better next year. It is not constructed in a way to get better. More personnel moves will need to be made to get better. We have many needs and an injection of talent will only happen through the draft or a lucky trade. So far, the latter plan has not yielded much in terms of talent.

    If you are happy with just barely making the playoffs and getting knocked out in the first round, fine. I can respect that. It can certainly get worse to be a Pacer fan. However, I want this team to be a contender again. Maybe that's too much to ask...

  16. #16
    yawn cgg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by SycamoreKen View Post
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    A top 10 pick is not going to fix this team. Also, JO is not going to walk away from the money left on his contract. Demand a trade? Maybe, but no one walks away from 60 million in the bank. But we have already had this discussion.


    I think he should opt out and resign for minimum.


    Seriously though, why do they never sign for minimum to get a ring until they are old? Tells me a ring isn't really all that important to them.

  17. #17
    The Future Is Bright JB's Breakout Year's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Wow. I am surprised to see that my vote broke a 17-17 tie. It's been a frustrating year, but maybe our expectations were too high if it looks like it's better to lose than win.

    If we are going to lose, that'll take care of itself-no rooting necessary . We ain't a perfect team, but c'mon!

    Go Pacers!

  18. #18
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    These Pacers are not going to be the same team you watched earlier this year.
    And as I proved (and said) neither are the Magic. Back when the Magic weren't losing to non-playoff teams all over the place the Pacers beat them (when they were also better of course).

    If THAT Magic team was coming into Indy then okay. But they are just as long gone as that Pacers team that beat them.

    There are 4 teams (possibly 5 if Philly beats us) fighting for the last two spots and we are not healthy and are sinking fast.
    Like I'm saying, the focus has to be on NJ and NY I think. Philly is coming on but I don't think they will be the team to put Indy out. It will have to be NJ/NY. Can they? The 2 games vs NJ are huge, just like the brawl season. Remember when they beat the Nets in Conseco with Reggie's scoring flurry followed by the huge jumper by James Jones (and FTs to lock it)?

    We could be seeing a repeat of that.

  19. #19
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    And as I proved (and said) neither are the Magic. Back when the Magic weren't losing to non-playoff teams all over the place the Pacers beat them (when they were also better of course).

    If THAT Magic team was coming into Indy then okay. But they are just as long gone as that Pacers team that beat them.
    Due to the trade, the only thing you can look at to make any judgment is recent performance. Orlando has been bad. The Pacers have been worse.

    Since the all star break, the Pacers average deficit is 12ppg. Orlando is losing, but only by an average of 7.8ppg. The only common opponent has been Milwaukee. The Pacers beat them by 7, Orlando beat them by 17.

    What is most significant, however is schedule:
    Orlando:
    at Detroit L 88-110
    vs Detroit L 89-94
    vs Houston L 93-97
    at Chicago W 94-87
    at Denver L 101-111
    at San Antonio L 74-98
    at Dallas L 98-103
    vs Milwaukee W 99-81
    vs Chicago L 76-100
    at Houston L 92-103
    at Charlotte L 108-119 - back to back on the road

    Indiana:
    vs Milwaukee W 136-129
    at Toronto L 88-110
    vs Sacramento L 93-110
    vs Phoenix L 92-103
    at Phoenix L 90-115
    at LA Clippers L 64-87
    at Sacramento L 98-102
    at Utah L 72-94
    vs Philadelphia L 96-100
    at Cleveland L 88-99

    It's pretty obvious Orlando has performed poorly, but not as bad considering a much tougher schedule. Goodness gracious. Detroit twice, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston twice, Chicago twice, Denver..all in 12 games...and their schedule gets easier while Indiana's gets significantly more difficult.

    Not saying Orlando will pass us. ...but on paper, it's pretty clear who is playing better.

  20. #20
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    No, a top 10 pick even in this deep draft will not fix this team by itself but it is a step in the right direction...one of several we need to start making asap. ...but I think some have forgot just how good a top 10 pick can be.

    Not rooting to tank necessarily, but I do believe Acie Law IV would help out a lot.

  21. #21

    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    I hope the Pacers only lose games they are supposed to lose. That said, I hope JO and Quis do not return, giving the young guys a chance to play. Jordan mentioned (saw on Hoopshype) that he is considering trading the Bobcats pick and Toronto's pick for a go to scorer. I wonder if he would be interested in JO and Harrison for both picks and bad contract.

  22. #22
    Member Dr. Goldfoot's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Seeing as how the Bobcats only have $7 million more in total salary next year than JO's contract I'm not sure how that would work. That's assuming Wallace and Brezec don't opt out. If those guys do opt out then JO makes more than the entire team, they have on the books as of today, for next year.

    P.S. That means they would have to sign someone to a bad contract to trade with us.

  23. #23

    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    I dont beleive so, since the Bobcats are under the cap salaries do not have to match up in a trade.

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Unreal, Unreal!!!! 31 people are wanting the Pacers to lose! No, I don't post here a lot but I check in daily and this flat out upsets me. Pacer Fans? HA

  25. #25
    Member Dr. Goldfoot's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tank-o-Meter

    Quote Originally Posted by Karmakillaz View Post
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    I dont beleive so, since the Bobcats are under the cap salaries do not have to match up in a trade.
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