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Thread: Draft race countdown

  1. #1
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Draft race countdown

    I'm pulling this out of the Tank-o-Meter and other discussions to make it more of a just a news item, just the facts about the draft slot magic numbers that I posted in the Tank-O thread.

    Here they are, now updated from the last few days. I'll bump it over the next couple of weeks as the numbers change and we see the race for draft position. I'm not rooting for it here, just reporting the numbers for discussion's sake (I'm anti-tanking pretty harsly).

    When the magic number hits zero it means the Pacers can do no worse than tie them, ie not pass them in draft position. Every Pacers win or one of these teams losing reduces the magic number (it's just the reverse of the magic number for winning).

    Grouped by fives for quick math.


    Memphis - 48 (5)
    Boston - 44 (9)
    Charlotte - 41 (12)
    Millwaukee - 40 (13)
    Atlanta - 39 (14)

    Philly - 38 (15)
    Seattle - 38 (15)
    Portland - 36 (17)
    GS - 36 (17)
    Orlando - 35 (18)

    OKC - 35 (18)
    NJ - 35 (18)
    MIN - 35 (18)
    NY - 34 (19)
    SAC - 34 (19)

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    I like it.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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  3. #3

    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Nice work, Seth. I need this on my cell phone.

  4. #4
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    It also works as a playoff spot countdown somewhat. I mean NJ, NY, PHI and ORL are on the list, so if they hit zero then the Pacers are in the playoffs.


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    Member indyman37's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Wow...i just checked and if NJ wins tonight and we lose...we would be tied with NY for the 8th spot in the East.

  6. #6
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Current as of Wed the 14th results
    Pacers can lose 53 still

    Memphis - 49 (4)
    Boston - 45 (8)
    Charlotte - 41 (12)
    Millwaukee - 41 (12)
    Atlanta - 39 (14)

    Philly - 39 (14)
    Seattle - 39 (14)
    Portland - 37 (16)
    GS - 36 (17)
    Orlando - 36 (17)

    OKC - 36 (17)
    SAC - 35 (18)
    NJ - 35 (18)
    MIN - 35 (18)
    NY - 34 (19)

    Technically the Pacers are still in the race for the most ping pong balls.

  7. #7
    The Doctor's In The House TheDon's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Honestly the way our schedule looks and the way some of these other teams below us play each other if we just keep on losing the rest of the way we have a decent chance at having the 6th worst record in the NBA and if the ping pong balls can just bounce our way we could land in the 1-5 spot. if that happens I'm hoping we trade up somehow to get Oden I would part with JO for Oden in a hot minute. Hell I would part with JO + Granger for Oden as long as we get to keep Shawne. I'd also try to pawn off tinsley + murphy on somebody for a draft pick so we can get acie law. Then fire carlisle and replace him with a cardboard cutout cause event he cutout would be more effective than he is. If that goes down I would weep with joy and find some way to afford season tickets like donate plasma or a kidney, I'd figure out somethin.

  8. #8
    Member owl's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    I am not sure what it says about the league but when you lose 10 in a row and you start out as the 7th seed and are still(almost) the 7th seed after the 10th loss that is a sad commentary on the league. This thread and team needs some theme music for it. I submit Tom Petty's
    "Free Fallin".
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  9. #9
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDon View Post
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    Honestly the way our schedule looks and the way some of these other teams below us play each other if we just keep on losing the rest of the way we have a decent chance at having the 6th worst record in the NBA and if the ping pong balls can just bounce our way we could land in the 1-5 spot. if that happens I'm hoping we trade up somehow to get Oden I would part with JO for Oden in a hot minute. Hell I would part with JO + Granger for Oden as long as we get to keep Shawne. I'd also try to pawn off tinsley + murphy on somebody for a draft pick so we can get acie law. Then fire carlisle and replace him with a cardboard cutout cause event he cutout would be more effective than he is. If that goes down I would weep with joy and find some way to afford season tickets like donate plasma or a kidney, I'd figure out somethin.
    Oden is truly a special player that will be a Lebron/Duncan like impact player. He is 7'1", with an NBA ready body and great skills. A true physical presence who is also very athletic. He will be an unbelievable shot blocking machine in the NBA. He is also a smart player and good community type guy. A perfect player to build a franchise around.

    If we could package JO somehow to get Oden it would be the best day of my Pacer life. I would definitely part with both JO and Granger to get him....and Granger is my favorite Pacer. Too good to be true.

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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Oden is truly a special player that will be a Lebron/Duncan like impact player. He is 7'1", with an NBA ready body and great skills. A true physical presence who is also very athletic. He will be an unbelievable shot blocking machine in the NBA. He is also a smart player and good community type guy. A perfect player to build a franchise around.

    If we could package JO somehow to get Oden it would be the best day of my Pacer life. I would definitely part with both JO and Granger to get him....and Granger is my favorite Pacer. Too good to be true.
    If Oden is coming out Memphis , Celtics or whoever else owns that pick will not trade it away for Oneal.Oden is that good.Keep in mind people, know one knows for sure if Oden is coming out, I know a couple of people on this board have already mentioned that theres a good chance that he might stay in school.Durant may stay in school too.I don't think anybody knows for sure.

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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Oden is truly a special player that will be a Lebron/Duncan like impact player. He is 7'1", with an NBA ready body and great skills. A true physical presence who is also very athletic. He will be an unbelievable shot blocking machine in the NBA. He is also a smart player and good community type guy. A perfect player to build a franchise around.

    If we could package JO somehow to get Oden it would be the best day of my Pacer life. I would definitely part with both JO and Granger to get him....and Granger is my favorite Pacer. Too good to be true.
    Have you seen him play at all?

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    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerMan View Post
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    Have you seen him play at all?
    No, he's just making things up and thinking about ways to get rid of our two favorite players .
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    He's aving a laugh.

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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    As of now there are 11 teams with worse winning percentages than the Pacers, so at least 2 need to pass us and we need to stay worse than the Knicks and Clippers, who have the same record.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/standings

    Philly seems like the hottest team behind us, but they are still 4.5 games back. Still if they keep winning 7 of 10, they will do it.

    New Orleans, Sacramento, and Minnesota are all within a game of us, though they are all playing crappy too. Sacto is 5-5 over the last 10 but they lost the last 4. Another 5-5 and they will catch us I think.

    It is actually looking possible!

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Yes, it is distinctly possible considering our schedule and injuries. Interestingly, Golden State could be a team that helps us get a top 10 pick. That would be ironic IMO.

    We actually better get the 9th worst record in the league or we could very possibly get bumped...which would be an absolute worst case scenario.

    Philly is hot but will have to climb several positions. The other teams on this list are basically tied with us. If all these teams pass us, I think we get the #8 position.

    New Jersey
    Orlando
    New York
    Golden State
    Clippers
    Minnesota
    New Orleans
    Sacramento or Philadelphia

    I will be rooting for Atlanta, Milwaukee, Seattle and Portland as well. One of those dogs could make a run at us.

    BTW, I think we should be shooting for the worst record in the league, not just one of the bottom 10.

  16. #16

    Wink Re: Draft race countdown

    If we did tie some of these teams record wise, these teams we will stay ahead of:

    Seatle beat us twice
    Denver
    Clippers
    Minny
    Kings

    This is good for us if we are tanking.

  17. #17
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Knicks lost tonight at home to the Hornets. Pacers could easily make the plays if they win 5 or 6 gaes the rest of the way

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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Ok, it is shaping up as a good night for us.

    New York and Sac lost
    ...BUT Clippers, New Orleans and Philly won
    Either GS or MN will win since they are playing each other

    4 going up, 3 going down is good news. Not bad for a bunch of dogs.

  19. #19
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Current as of Mon the 19th results
    Pacers can lose 52 still

    Memphis - 50 (2)
    Boston - 47 (5)
    Charlotte - 43 (9)
    Millwaukee - 41 (11)
    Atlanta - 41 (11)

    Philly - 41 (11)
    Seattle - 40 (12)
    Portland - 40 (12)
    SAC - 38 (14)
    Orlando - 37 (15)

    OKC - 37 (15)
    MIN - 37 (15)
    GS - 36 (16)
    NJ - 36 (16)
    NY - 36 (16)

    LAC - 36 (16)

    Added the Clippers who just went 3-7. 9th worst is starting to look more like the worst possible finish, but another aspect is that FOUR teams are "vying" for the 9th and 10th worst records.

    Bad news for Indy is that the next 5 games are all very tough. But the Pacers do have 8 winable games left (@NJ, @ORL, @CHA, BOS, @PHI, @MIL, NJ, @ATL). That would mean 4-5 losses by most of the teams listed would put them behind Indy.

    Time to start paying attention to what happens with SAC, MIN, OKC, and ORL.

    The tougher games those teams have:

    SAC (8)
    @Phx, Phx, @LAL, DAL, Uth, Hou, @SA, LAL

    MIN (6-8)
    @Phx, @Uth, Mia, Cle, Tor, Dal, SA, @Den

    OKC (6)
    LAL, Hou, Dal, @SA, Phx, @Hou

    ORL (4-5)
    @Tor, Tor, @Det, @Wsh, Mia

    Games vs each other
    Min @ Sac
    OKC @ Sac
    Min @ Orl
    OKC @ Min

    So 2 of the 4 teams are going to lose 1-2 more games beyond the tough ones, or all 4 will lose 1.

    Note that Orlando does have the easier schedule but they also have several games against other borderline teams like NJ, NJ and Ind, plus a road game against Philly.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Is an update forthcoming?



  21. #21
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    It appears to me that we have the 12th worse record right now...0.001% behind 3 other teams.

    From FoxSports

    NBA Standings
    Division | Conference | League

    Eastern Conference
    Atlantic W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    Raptors 36 31 .537 0.0 23-10 13-21 9-3 24-15 5-5 L2
    Nets 31 37 .456 5.5 18-17 13-20 7-6 21-17 3-7 L1
    Knicks 30 37 .448 6.0 18-16 12-21 3-9 19-22 5-5 L1
    76ers 26 42 .382 10.5 17-17 9-25 5-5 15-23 6-4 L2
    Celtics 20 47 .299 16.0 9-23 11-24 6-7 12-26 5-5 L1

    Central W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    Pistons 43 23 .652 0.0 20-13 23-10 6-5 27-12 7-3 W1
    Cavaliers 41 26 .612 2.5 26-8 15-18 7-5 23-17 8-2 L1
    Bulls 39 30 .565 5.5 25-9 14-21 9-3 28-13 7-3 L2
    Pacers 30 36 .455 13.0 19-14 11-22 7-5 21-17 1-9 L1
    Bucks 25 41 .379 18.0 16-15 9-26 1-12 12-28 6-4 W2

    Southeast W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    Wizards 36 29 .554 0.0 25-9 11-20 7-4 23-16 5-5 L1
    Heat 36 30 .545 0.5 23-11 13-19 6-4 20-17 9-1 L1
    Magic 31 37 .456 6.5 20-14 11-23 7-7 18-22 3-7 W1
    Hawks 27 41 .397 10.5 15-18 12-23 5-7 14-26 5-5 W1
    Bobcats 25 43 .368 12.5 16-18 9-25 4-7 16-22 3-7 W1

    Conf Rank
    Rk Team GB
    1 Pistons* -
    2 Cavaliers 2.5
    3 Wizards* 6.5
    4 Raptors* 7.5
    5 Bulls 5.5
    6 Heat 7.0
    7 Nets 13.0
    8 Magic 13.0
    9 Pacers 13.0
    10 Knicks 13.5
    11 Hawks 17.0
    12 76ers 18.0
    13 Bucks 18.0
    14 Bobcats 19.0
    15 Celtics 23.5


    Western Conference
    Pacific W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    y-Suns 51 16 .761 0.0 27-7 24-9 8-2 26-11 7-3 W1
    Lakers 35 32 .522 16.0 22-11 13-21 7-2 21-16 3-7 W2
    Warriors 32 37 .464 20.0 24-10 8-27 4-9 19-21 6-4 L1
    Clippers 31 36 .463 20.0 21-12 10-24 4-7 16-23 3-7 W1
    Kings 29 38 .433 22.0 18-14 11-24 3-6 14-23 4-6 L1

    Southwest W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    x-Mavericks 55 11 .833 0.0 31-4 24-7 12-2 33-8 8-2 W3
    x-Spurs 46 20 .697 9.0 22-9 24-11 9-4 28-11 8-2 L2
    Rockets 43 25 .632 13.0 24-10 19-15 7-7 21-19 7-3 W4
    Hornets 31 37 .456 25.0 20-13 11-24 5-7 17-23 3-7 W2
    Grizzlies 17 51 .250 39.0 12-23 5-28 1-14 9-30 2-8 L1

    Northwest W L PCT GB Home Road DIV CONF L10 Streak
    Jazz 44 23 .657 0.0 26-7 18-16 8-3 26-12 6-4 W1
    Nuggets 34 31 .523 9.0 19-17 15-14 6-6 17-22 7-3 W5
    Timberwolves 28 38 .424 15.5 19-13 9-25 5-6 16-25 2-8 L3
    Trail Blazers 27 40 .403 17.0 16-19 11-21 5-7 16-24 3-7 W1
    SuperSonics 26 40 .394 17.5 18-15 8-25 4-6 13-24 4-6 W1
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  22. #22
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    Quote Originally Posted by Lbuckingham View Post
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    Is an update forthcoming?


    Trying to give it a couple of days at a time so there can actually be real changes in the numbers. I'll edit this after the Minny game ends tonight. Even though Indy lost, other teams keep losing too.

    Including the Wed the 21st results.

    Pacers can lose 52

    Memphis - 51 (1)
    Boston - 48 (4)
    Charlotte - 43 (9)
    Millwaukee - 42 (10)
    Atlanta - 42 (10)

    Philly - 42 (10)
    Seattle - 41 (11)
    Portland - 40 (12)
    SAC - 39 (13)
    Orlando - 38 (14)

    MIN - 38 (14)
    OKC - 37 (15)
    GS - 37 (15)
    NJ - 37 (15)
    NY - 37 (15)

    LAC - 36 (16)

    It appears to me that we have the 12th worse record right now...0.001% behind 3 other teams.
    But that doesn't matter because draft status isn't set till after the lottery and after each team has played 82 games. All that matters is the losses that are piling up for 10+ other teams beside the Pacers.

    A big reason for putting up this thread was that people were so focused on the Pacers losing and this assumption that 15-16 other teams were all going to suddenly be winning a lot more often.

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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    [quote=Naptown_Seth;559678]But that doesn't matter because draft status isn't set till after the lottery and after each team has played 82 games. All that matters is the losses that are piling up for 10+ other teams beside the Pacers.

    Winning % is the most viable, accurate option to use at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    A big reason for putting up this thread was that people were so focused on the Pacers losing and this assumption that 15-16 other teams were all going to suddenly be winning a lot more often.
    They already have "passed down" most of the other teams in the standings. Two weeks ago they had the 19th worst record in the league and were 5 games out of the bottom 10, now they have the 12th worst record and are only 1 game out of the bottom 10. Hell, they're only 5 games out of a bottom-3 record and a great shot at Oden or Durant. Highly unlikely that happens, but considering our remaining schedule, a top-10 is about as close to locked up as you can get.

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    We'll be lucky to get 1 of our next 5 IMO. And the last two are on the road against teams "fighting" us for the lowest playoff seeds. JO's status could also negatively influence this depending on if he plays and/or how effective he is while playing.

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Draft race countdown

    For those hoping for the "tank", although things could change for this year......a Win/Loss record to look at is a 34 (W) / 48 (L) record.

    Over the last 5 seasons, a team with a 34 win season has had ( at worst ) the 10th worst record in the league and ( at best ) the 8th worst record in the league.

    We are currentlly stuck at 30 wins and would need to win no more then 4 games to ( likely ) get the 9th/10th worst record in the league.
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