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Thread: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

  1. #26

    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    How much talent does it take to have no 1st or 2nd round draft pick in the so-called one of the biggest draft of all time? We can't even say wait till next year given that next year doesn't look any better than this year.

  2. #27
    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    The fact that so many people think we'll drop below .500 is pathetic. This team, on paper, should be better than that.

    We have no major injuries or suspensions as excuses this time. If Rick can't get anything better out of this team than sub-.500, it's definitely time for him to go.

  3. #28
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    The fact that so many people think we'll drop below .500 is pathetic. This team, on paper, should be better than that.

    We have no major injuries or suspensions as excuses this time. If Rick can't get anything better out of this team than sub-.500, it's definitely time for him to go.
    Again, have you seen the schedule?

    You expect them to win games in Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio and Houston? I didn't BEFORE the trade and/or the slide. I'm not sold on home games vs WSH, CLE or CHI either.

    This team, on paper, should have won vs SAC, GS, SEA and DEN in Conseco. None of those games was even a back to back at home. I'm not hating on the team, I'm just facing facts.

    I understand if Rick catches some of the flack, but then again how did this team get better by trading Jack/Al for Dun/Murph? It was a talent shuffle at best, one that maybe helped in some areas but clearly depleated the already iffy backcourt a little more.

  4. #29

    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Here is a suggestion for improving this team. Play the guys who are supposed to contribute in the future so they learn the game-that means Williams, Diogu, Marshall, and Harrison if he ever can get healthy. We should forget about winning or having a respectable W-L percentage but concentrate on guys who can contribute next season in a meaningful way.

  5. #30
    Remember #31 dohman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    I think most of you forget this is a business and if we tank that bad there will be not much left. I see everyone gone and the simons starting over. When was the last time we had a losing record at the end of a season or didnt make the playoffs? Most of you doubt this team way to much. They had a great stretch before the allstar break and came back and just are not playing to well. They will bounce back and still be a good team just you watch. I say 46 win.

  6. #31
    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    I understand if Rick catches some of the flack, but then again how did this team get better by trading Jack/Al for Dun/Murph? It was a talent shuffle at best, one that maybe helped in some areas but clearly depleated the already iffy backcourt a little more.
    Except, a big reason the trade happened was because that group was underachieving as well.

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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Yeah, because that's what people have been saying about the Pacers, if only they had a promising rookie to take them to the next level.
    Having the pick would be nice, but "instantly becoming one of the most promising teams in the league" is a huge stretch.
    Actually, it's really not. When you consider the level of talent in the upcoming lottery, add someone from that talent pool to a team featuring JO, Granger, Quis, Murphy, Tinsley, Dunleavy, Foster, and a couple of promising young forwards.

    All-Star Big Man - JO

    Good Role Players - Quis, Foster, Murphy, Dunleavy

    Good Young Talent - Granger, Ike, Williams,Top-10 Pick



    PG: Law/James (both better than Tinsley right now)
    SG: Quis
    SF: Granger
    PF: JO
    C: Ike


    That's a team that has the potential to be something in this league, and thats not even counting Shawne Williams who was projected as a top-10 pick in this coming draft.

  8. #33
    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    You mean which teams got which pick?
    www.nbadraft.net
    History section
    Yeah, that's a great website. But I was hoping someone had already compiled (either here on PD or on another website) a list comparing the actuall W/L records of teams, and then where their pick ended up. I know it's rarely if ever exactly how it should be (remember how up until the Cleveland pick it seemed like the worst record never got the #1 pick for a stretch?).

    In other words, I'm trying to see where the teams with the 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th worst records have picked in the past several years.

  9. #34
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    I can't believe we didn't get this pick lottery protected at least. There is NO way we finish with one of the ten worst records in the league. Especially if JO plays hurt now too.

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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Yeah, that's a great website. But I was hoping someone had already compiled (either here on PD or on another website) a list comparing the actuall W/L records of teams, and then where their pick ended up. I know it's rarely if ever exactly how it should be (remember how up until the Cleveland pick it seemed like the worst record never got the #1 pick for a stretch?).

    In other words, I'm trying to see where the teams with the 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th worst records have picked in the past several years.

    They only run the lotto for the top-3 picks. So if we were to finish 11-14, unless we landed a top-3 pick (highly, highly unlikely) we'd be S.O.L.

  11. #36

    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    I'll stick with 43-40 but my confidence level has dropped significantly. Winning two of these upcoming road games would help stall the downward momentum.
    Go Pacers!
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Quis View Post
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    They only run the lotto for the top-3 picks. So if we were to finish 11-14, unless we landed a top-3 pick (highly, highly unlikely) we'd be S.O.L.
    Wait, seriously? Then why do they call it the lottery if you miss the playoffs? That implied to me that the lottery determined all 14 picks. In fact, I'm sure it does; why else would the "lottery show" they always air during half-time of a playoff game include all non-playoff teams? Why show up if you know exactly what place you get? I'm pretty sure it's a lottery for all non-playoff teams. We could have the best non-playoff record and still have a tiny shot at the #1 pick IIRC. So there's hope of at least cracking the top 10. Not a great one, but still.

  13. #38
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    In fact, it has to be the way I said it (or something close).

    In 2005, Milwaukee finished with a record of 30-52. They got the #1 pick (to get Andrew Bogut) despite the fact that there were 5 teams with worse records.

  14. #39

    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Wait, seriously? Then why do they call it the lottery if you miss the playoffs? That implied to me that the lottery determined all 14 picks. In fact, I'm sure it does; why else would the "lottery show" they always air during half-time of a playoff game include all non-playoff teams? Why show up if you know exactly what place you get? I'm pretty sure it's a lottery for all non-playoff teams. We could have the best non-playoff record and still have a tiny shot at the #1 pick IIRC. So there's hope of at least cracking the top 10. Not a great one, but still.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wikipedia
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    The first picks of the draft belong to the fourteen teams that did not enter the playoffs in that year's season. These teams participate in a lottery to determine the order of the first three picks. Each team is assigned a number of chances based upon season standings to 'win' the lottery. After these three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest remaining picks. This lottery assures each team can drop no more than 3 positions from its projected draft position. The lottery also prevents teams from throwing the season to ensure a top draft pick.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nba_draft

  15. #40

    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Wait, seriously? Then why do they call it the lottery if you miss the playoffs? That implied to me that the lottery determined all 14 picks. In fact, I'm sure it does; why else would the "lottery show" they always air during half-time of a playoff game include all non-playoff teams? Why show up if you know exactly what place you get? I'm pretty sure it's a lottery for all non-playoff teams. We could have the best non-playoff record and still have a tiny shot at the #1 pick IIRC. So there's hope of at least cracking the top 10. Not a great one, but still.
    From NBA.com

    http://www.nba.com/history/draft_evolution.html

    2004-Present: 14-team Lottery
    The 2004 NBA Draft Lottery increased to 14 teams with the addition of the Charlotte Bobcats. Although a part of the 2004 Draft Lottery the Bobcats are locked into the fourth position in the Draft and therefore do not have a chance to receive other picks in the Lottery. The 2004 NBA Draft Lottery essentially decides picks one through three and four through 14.
    Go Pacers!
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  16. #41
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    I just took a good look at the final 26 games, and they are absolutely brutal. It looks like we will finish under .500. It could be as bad as 38-44.

    My prediction: 40-42

    We have 11 at home and here is what is being served (and the best case/worse case):

    Philadelphia - W/W
    Washington - W/L
    Atlanta - W/L
    Miami - W/L
    Chicago - L/L
    Cleveland - L/L
    San Antonio - L/L
    Detroit - L/L
    Boston - W/L
    New Jersey - W/L
    Washington - W/L

    We split this at best, we go 6-9 on the road...that's 11 more wins...for 40 wins.

  17. #42
    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Well, I've learned something.

  18. #43
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    I would not mind a top-10 pick this year. I absolutely HATE fantanking. Being a fan of the Celtics as well, it's been SO hard hoping that they lose but then I'm reminded of watching Greg Oden in a Celtics uniform and it's easier. The Pacers need a pick badly this year. We're a little too low on talent as is to contend and because of some salary restrictions we don't have much flexibility to make lots of moves.

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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    We wouldn't be taking (losing on purpose) we'd just be losing.

    Still, this Acie Law kid looks legit. Even if we land outside of the top-10, I'd like to see a move made to pick him up. Maybe using a future 1st or Ike or Shawne Williams.

  20. #45
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by mellifluous View Post
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    I also agree, but I don't think it has to be a draft pick. If the Pacers were to turn either Ike, Shawne, or Granger into a PG with a similar skill level/potential, that could make the difference also.
    This seems like the only alternative unless we want to trade JO and just start over. Foster is another candidate, but I don't think we can count on DH, Murphy, Diogu, or Maceo to be able to give us close to what Jeff does. Hopefully Tins can be shown the door in combination with any of these other guy or somehow assuming a PG is coming back. Unless he can adjust to being the backup, which he'd be suited for IMO, but not sure if he's willing.

  21. #46
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    42-40 losing in the 1st round of the playoffs 4-1.
    "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
    - Benjamin Franklin

  22. #47
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Going over the remaining schedule, it looks as if it'll be tough to win more than 39 games. I hope I'm wrong but .500 looks as the best we will do and I'm usually an optimist.

    If the group can come together and learn to play with each other, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each other, the team could do better. After all, the new guys have had really a relative short period of time to blend in. If so, it'd be great if they could mesh about playoff time and play their best basketball of the season and surprise almost everyone.
    .

  23. #48
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    42-40 and 7th or 6th in the East

  24. #49
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Quis View Post
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    Actually, it's really not. When you consider the level of talent in the upcoming lottery, add someone from that talent pool to a team featuring JO, Granger, Quis, Murphy, Tinsley, Dunleavy, Foster, and a couple of promising young forwards.
    You are still adding a ROOKIE to this mix. A ROOKIE takes a team from losing at home to sub-500 teams to "most promising"?

    Not unless they get a top 5 pick, and then trade JO or Granger for a top PG/SG when they draft a 3, 4 or 5.



    Hicks, it's a little work but ESPN standings go back to 91-92 and can be arranged by league total. Copy, Paste Special (text) into XL sheet. Repeat. That takes you 5 minutes for 91-92 till now. Really quick.

    NBADraft.net will be trickier, but maybe someplace else has a cleaner source. To rip the rank from the city name I had to past to text file first, then open the .txt in XL. That lets you set the spacing or delimiters as it comes into XL (like using the space or "." to mark columns). "." burns you with a few names, but mostly it works well.

    The other issue from that side of it is the special circumstances that Draft.net notes. That's another part of the "clean" aspect I was talking about, getting to which teams ORIGINALLY were slotted where, rather than which team got the draft day position due to a trade.

    For Draft.net I had to take the " team y (from team x)" part and swap it as "team X (to team y)" so it would sort correctly (1 pick for every team, aligned with team that earned it, not who used it). Figure 2-3 per draft are like this. I didn't fix it till I had it in XL.

    Sort both by name, paste together, fix for expansion team gaps. Then you can sort by either record or draft pick. I just started this and might not finish it (certainly not right now), but I used tabs/sheets for each year. Obviously you could put it all on one sheet and scroll around. You could paste together to compile stats like % of worst records actually got the #1 pick, etc.


    If you had a source that didn't need the formatting fixes for NBADraft.net it would take 10 minutes tops.

    91-92 (let's see how the format carries over - edit, nice, it HTML'd my XL format)

    Team W L Draft Player
    Minnesota 15 67 3 Christian Laettner
    Orlando 21 61 1 Shaquille O'Neal
    Dallas 22 60 4 Jimmy Jackson
    Denver 24 58 5 LaPhonso Ellis
    Washington 25 57 6 Tom Gugliotta
    Sacramento 29 53 7 Walt Williams
    Charlotte 31 51 2 Alonzo Mourning
    Milwaukee 31 51 8 Todd Day
    Philadelphia 35 47 9 Clarence Weatherspoon
    Atlanta 38 44 10 Adam Keefe
    Miami 38 44 12 Harold Miner
    Indiana 40 42 14 Malik Sealy
    New Jersey (to Denver) 40 42 13 Bryant Stith
    Houston 42 40 11 Robert Horry
    LA Lakers 43 39 15 Anthony Peeler
    LA Clippers 45 37 16 Randy Woods
    San Antonio (a) 47 35 18 Tracy Murray
    Seattle 47 35 17 Doug Christie
    Detroit (b) 48 34 19 Don MacLean
    Boston 51 31 21 Jon Barry
    New York 51 31 20 Hubert Davis
    Phoenix 53 29 22 Oliver Miller
    Golden State 55 27 24 Latrell Sprewell
    Utah (to Milwaukee) 55 27 23 Lee Mayberry
    Cleveland (to LA Clippers) 57 25 25 Elmore Spencer
    Portland 57 25 26 David Johnson
    Chicago 67 15 27 Byron Houston

  25. #50
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Prediction: Pacers Final Record

    test - now I can't get it to paste with the formatting. Argh.

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