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Thread: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

  1. #26
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    I don't quite know how to answer your post. First of all, you show my post and answer it and then you insert two more posts not made by me and not attributed to anyone and they answer them. So I'm confused.
    Answering the thread down the line, using copy and paste after initially using the quote function to start my reply off of your post.

    If it looks like I'm talking to someone else then I am, no mystery to it. There are just several different points being made by different people.

    As for Jack, my discussion of him here is simply to say that we complained about his streaky shooting (and play), and IMO that wasn't solved by DunDun coming in. Yet somehow by a miracle his similar version of hot/cold is just fine with fans.

    I call BS on it. Simple as that. Red is red all the time, not green because you like the guy more.

    I gave Dun credit for his week, I have NO ARGUMENT against him as PotW as it was pretty obvious I think. All I said was streaky and then I caught a ton of grief for it. What's Dun do to support my view? Goes 5-14 the next game out. So I stand firmly by my point.

  2. #27
    Member Roferr's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Answering the thread down the line, using copy and paste after initially using the quote function to start my reply off of your post.

    If it looks like I'm talking to someone else then I am, no mystery to it. There are just several different points being made by different people.

    As for Jack, my discussion of him here is simply to say that we complained about his streaky shooting (and play), and IMO that wasn't solved by DunDun coming in. Yet somehow by a miracle his similar version of hot/cold is just fine with fans.

    I call BS on it. Simple as that. Red is red all the time, not green because you like the guy more.

    I gave Dun credit for his week, I have NO ARGUMENT against him as PotW as it was pretty obvious I think. All I said was streaky and then I caught a ton of grief for it. What's Dun do to support my view? Goes 5-14 the next game out. So I stand firmly by my point.
    I was just confused why I was the only one you identified.

    Anyway, the less said about Jax, the better, IMO. If Dun is still streaky after the amount of games Jax played for us, I'll probably be jumping on his case also.
    .

  3. #28
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Answering the thread down the line, using copy and paste after initially using the quote function to start my reply off of your post.

    If it looks like I'm talking to someone else then I am, no mystery to it. There are just several different points being made by different people.

    As for Jack, my discussion of him here is simply to say that we complained about his streaky shooting (and play), and IMO that wasn't solved by DunDun coming in. Yet somehow by a miracle his similar version of hot/cold is just fine with fans.

    I call BS on it. Simple as that. Red is red all the time, not green because you like the guy more.

    I gave Dun credit for his week, I have NO ARGUMENT against him as PotW as it was pretty obvious I think. All I said was streaky and then I caught a ton of grief for it. What's Dun do to support my view? Goes 5-14 the next game out. So I stand firmly by my point.

    Quote All I said was streaky and then I caught a ton of grief for it.

    NO! You caught grief for your unrelenting support of Jack at the expense of supporting Dun. Leave Jack out of the equation and you will catch no grief for saying Dun is streaky.

  4. #29
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    Quote Originally Posted by Roferr
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    I was just confused why I was the only one you identified.
    Again, my apologies. My only response to you was after your quote, and then bring up the 36 mpg issue that you're fond of bringing up. Other than that it had little to nothing to do with your comments. I edited the post to tone down the attitude some and to clarify the quotes as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by PacersFan83 View Post
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    You're very carefully picking and choosing your spots in order to skew the discussion in your favor....

    Let's compare Dunleavy's 3 point shooting in 2004-2005 (38.8%) with Jackson's 3 point shooting in 00-01 (25.0%) - WOW! Dunleavy is a much, much better 3 point shooter than Jackson. Just look at the stats!

    See how easy that was? That's pretty much what you're doing.
    No, you aren't doing what I'm doing. I saying LAST YEAR, the most recent effort by both players and closest to where they are current at.

    I didn't pick a worst and best year to make it look good. I just said "normal huh, what about just last year, was that normal?" That's more than fair.

    Do we hold Granger accountable now for his November rookie year numbers? Of course not, time has passed and his game has changed, improved, or otherwise altered.

    Harrington's 3pt numbers match LAST YEAR better than 4 years ago.


    Players in all sports sometimes just lose their touch. Maybe an injury unreported has gotten to Dun, maybe pressure to prove something is hurting his game, but whatever the issue he hasn't really improved from where he started, and in fact had a terrible year last year (thus the EARNED boos from fans, just like Jack got last year).

    He also dropped like a rock this year after November. This has continued in Indiana. But I'm supposed to brush that off because 3 years ago he was better? Who cares, this is now.

    No one is giving Tinsley the benefit of his 3pt shooting when it peaked out. We look at it more recently.

    And when you look at Jack and Dun last year, Jack wins. Then when you look at Jack and Dun the last 2 months, Jack wins. Dun in the last year and a half has only outshot Jack basically in November of this season.


    You think I'm skewing and being a jerk, but here you run out these numbers (and get applause for it no less)
    Quote Originally Posted by PacersFan83
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    Dunleavy's Past 4 Seasons
    03-04: 45.1
    04-05: 40.3
    05-06: 44.9
    06-07: 44.4
    Nice. One problem. INCORRECT Clap clap for a point made with false numbers. This is why I'm upset on the issue. All these points being made with the wrong numbers.

    02-03 40.3 (not even listed)
    03-04 44.9 (not 45.1)
    04-05 45.1 (not 40.3) - the only one where the mistake hurt Dun's numbers, brushed off as "rookie year" curiously enough
    05-06 40.6 (not 44.9)
    06-07 43.2 (not 44.4)

    Why is it I don't see that 40.6 listed AT ALL in your list of his numbers? I'M SKEWING!?! You left out his worst shooting year, which just happened to be last season. But I'm pulling the fast one. You just rearranged all his numbers using his first 3 seasons, dropped last year, and then pulled out a made up one for this season to boot.

    Frankly, that's just insulting IMO. I might make a mistake from time to time, but I bust my butt to fact check and go out of my way to try and be fair. Then someone putting up fake numbers accuses me of skewing.

    Puts a new look on this quote
    Quote Originally Posted by Alpolloloco View Post
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    Naptown Seth is getting schooled here ....


    On top of that my point was that in 4 seasons TWO OF THEM feature him shooting 40% from the field. That's right, up till this year he was 50/50 on shooting 40% vs 45% (even 45 is no treasure). I would totally buy the "the first was his rookie year" angle...except that the other one was a full season with good minutes just last year.


    BTW, with the Pacers Dun's only at 42.6 right now, despite the 18-27 over 2 games.

    Here are the post NOV numbers for both Dun and Jack, in order to point out where each guy is at more recently this season in terms of shooting.

    Dunleavy
    42.2, 33.6

    Jack
    45.3, 35.5

    Where's my applause for taking the time and effort to research my stats before presenting them, and for supporting the case that since Dec 1 Jack has been shooting better. It's not a twist or lie, it's the cold hard facts.

    You pair that with Jack outshooting Dunleavy LAST YEAR (unlike the false numbers that PF83 tried to present) and you have legitimate questions on Dunleavy's shooting.

    Even on the season Dun doesn't have a huge advantage despite a vastly better November. Since then Jack's numbers keep rising and Dun's keep falling. We aren't getting the benefit of the full season numbers, we are getting what he is doing now. And right now he's shooting worse than Jack is or even was the last month with the Pacers (when he was being booed still).

    Dun 44.2, 35.3
    Jack 42.7, 31.6

    BTW, that 18-27 that got Dunleavy Pacers player of hte week. Jackson nearly matched it on WED alone (16-26), along with 8 assists just in case you thought it was all him chucking. They both do the same thing, bring a huge game then a 4-15 night.



    It's bad enough when someone ignores the facts and just goes with the truthiness as they see it, but flat out changing the numbers is just wrong.

    If someone wants to make the case that NOV is more important than the rest of the year, or that 2 years ago is more important than last year, then by all means do so. But please at least present some (correct) facts and logic behind it so that I can be properly convinced.

  5. #30
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    BTW, relatively brief periods????

    Dude played FOUR years before this season. TWO OF THEM have him at 40% shooting. Even if you brush off his rookie year, 1 out of 3 is 33%. That's not brief at all. That's a large chunk of his career.

    And I included this year too, so 3 out of 5 have him struggling with his shot, and the 2 counter ones are only at 45%, hardly so high that you ignore the bad years.


    Quote Originally Posted by PF83
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    Dunleavy's 3 Point Shooting Last Season: 74-260, 28.5% - Fairly Lousy
    Dunleavy's 3 Point Shooting The Rest of His Career: 306-831, 36.8% - Very Good
    Dunleavy's 3 Point Shooting for His Career: 380-1091, 34.8% - SolidJackson's 3 Point Shooting for His Career: 577-1722, 33.5% - Mediocre
    28.5 "fairly lousy"
    More like WORST IN THE NBA among players with 200 or more attempts. But by all means, when shooting sub-30% keep putting them up.

    Guys in the ballpark, Payton 29% on 230, Artest 31% on 253, TMac 31% on 234, Paul 28% on 177. Of the 138 players that took 100 or more 3PA last season, only Daniels (WSH) 23%, Murray (CLE/SEA) 26%, and Melo 24% shot the 3 worse than Dunleavy did.

    Now what is it when you call "worst" = "fairly lousy". Spin or skew, that's what. As bad as Jackson has shot the 3, he's never been the worst in the NBA among regular shooters and he's never dipped south of 32% outside of his 9 of 36 stint for all of the 01-02 season.

    Okay, so then what is it when 34.8 = "solid" and 33.5 = "mediocre"? Spin or skew. They rate virtually in the same grouping of players, middle of the road guys that you wish would limit their attempts to 2 per game rather than 4.

    What is it when 36.8 = "Very good" for a 3pt shooter? Spin or skew. 36.8 on a given year rates a player around 60th or so in the league, even limiting the list to qualified shooters (guys who took enough attempts). That's not "very good". That's average for guys that put up 200+.

    Cripes, Jason Kidd dropped 35% last year even. Names like Smush Parker and Jayson Williams fall into the 36% range. Very good is more like 40%, where you find the top 20 and guys like Ray Allen, Mike Miller or Kyle Korver (or Dunleavy 2 years ago). Elite or excellent is closer to 45%.



    Simply by the adjectives you judge the numbers with you give away some crazy bias to not only trash Jack (his shooting warrants some complaints of course) but to support Dunleavy as this "very good" shooter, when in fact he was booed and traded because he's only mediocre and was coming off a year of missing 186 of 260 attempts.


    I wish people would keep in mind that my main point is that Dunleavy is a streaky, unreliable shooter. He is according the the results in his career so far (ie, stats). He certainly is according to his run with Indy up to this point. Streaky doesn't discount good nights, in fact it requires them by definition.

    If he didn't have good nights he would go from streaky to plain old bad.


    Also again, please note that I have repeatedly EQUATED Jack and Dunleavy. So if I'm a Jackson supporter then be definition you are calling me a Dunleavy supporter too. Of if you think I'm trashing Dun then I must also be trashing Jack. My opinion of both players is equivilent. You can't ask for a clearer statement than that, and it contradicts any opinion that I'm for Jack over Dun. I'm not. Repeat, I'm not.

    If proving that I am is your angle in this you are severely misguided.

  6. #31
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    Can we get a full SAS analysis of Jack vs. MDJ stats to settle this? Possibly a proc univariate just to get all the details?

  7. #32
    Headband and Rec Specs rexnom's Avatar
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    Default Re: Dunleavy Pacers Player of the Week

    Since I was bored and I don't know who else would do it, here's a brief statistical analysis of Ray Allen, and Mike Dunleavy, and Stephen Jackson over the past 13 games (14 for Jack). I included Ray for comparison purposes. I cut out a lot of details simply because I wasn't sure what would be useful. Personally I think median and interquartile range are better to use here simply because of the outliers (and their effect on our discussion of streakiness). I highlighted the aforementioned points of interest. MDJ clearly has less of an IQR than both Jack and Allen. That's important to note. However, if we're going define Jack as streaky then we have to define Allen as streaky as well. But taking a look at the deviation from their averages, Allen's deviation leads him to games of around 20pts at worst while Jack easily falls below 10. That's my only comment, you can judge the rest of the stats yourselves...

    p.s. This is a small sample size. If we want accuracy, a general rule of thumb is at least 30 as sample size. Below that, all these numbers lose some of their significance.
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