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Thread: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

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    Member Roferr's Avatar
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    Default Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    How about some of your thoughts on the new WINVAL stats that have come out. There's an article in the Star this morning.

    No stat is perfect but his method takes into account many more variables than any other form of stat, especially the +/-.

    After reading what actually is fed into the computer for the bottom line, it seems to me the best thing going as far as an overall stat. As it takes into consideration, many other variables that aren't figured in by the +/- system. The biggest difference is that the defensive side is computed in as half of the equation.

    http://www.uncg.edu/eco/rosenbaum/NBA/winval2.htm

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    I especially like the fact that when Sarunas is on the floor we give away less points, so maybe his one on one defense isn't very good but the team defense is better with him in te game.
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    I was actually surprised at the ratings on both Granger and Sarunas. I never would have guessed Granger's ratings on both sides of the ball would have been so lopsided nor that Sarunas would be rated so much higher on the defensive end or overall.

    I won't claim to understand the WINVAL any more than I understand the +/-, but the way it's formulated it certainly makes one look at a player in a completely different light.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Statistics, such as these, don't matter. However, trends in statistics certainly matter, such as:

    The Pacers are 6-1 when Jamaal Tinsley has at least nine assists and 5-0 when Stephen Jackson scores at least 20 points.

    Jackson has averaged 18.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in the last three and the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 30 points in his 98 minutes on the floor.

    Jermaine O'Neal has averaged 21.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.67 blocked shots in the last six.

    Al Harrington has shot 7-of-26 (.269) in the last two.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    The Indiannapolis Star had two articles about the WINVAL...one was about how the Mavs use it and the other was about the Pacers and their techniques of compliling data like this on the computer.

    http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...egory=SPORTS04

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    I say don't pollute art with science......
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    without knowing........... what input, time frames/intervals, compensation values for minutes and opponents (who are they playing at that moment) what plays are ran and for who, and so on and so on neither of the articles are worth a penny except some nice advertising.
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by ajbry View Post
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    Statistics, such as these, don't matter. However, trends in statistics certainly matter, such as:
    I don't get what you're trying to say.

    Also, while I understand a message board is a venue for expressing your own personal opinions, I don't get how anyone can flippantly and totally disregard these systems when pretty much every team in the NBA employs systems like these, and one of the best uses the particular one in discussion.

    Basically, my point is these systems are used by people who know a lot about basketball, so anyone who's gonna go out and say they're entirely worthless should at least take the time to formulate some sort of dicussion.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by ajbry View Post
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    Statistics, such as these, don't matter. However, trends in statistics certainly matter, such as:

    The Pacers are 6-1 when Jamaal Tinsley has at least nine assists and 5-0 when Stephen Jackson scores at least 20 points.

    We should just let Tinsley bring it up the floor and pass to Jackson for the shot until he hits his 20. Then just put another W in the win column.

    Oh wait, we're kind of doing that already. Whatever works I guess. After Jax get his 20 and the game is decided Tins can take all the rest of the shots.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldog View Post
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    I don't get what you're trying to say.

    Also, while I understand a message board is a venue for expressing your own personal opinions, I don't get how anyone can flippantly and totally disregard these systems when pretty much every team in the NBA employs systems like these, and one of the best uses the particular one in discussion.

    Basically, my point is these systems are used by people who know a lot about basketball, so anyone who's gonna go out and say they're entirely worthless should at least take the time to formulate some sort of dicussion.
    This is not a whole different than the Major League Scouting Bureau. When I was working in professional baseball not a whole lot of credence was given to the scouting reports. What teams would do is use the bureau reports as an aside to their own scouting reports. The teams basically had their minds made up about things.
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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by ajbry View Post
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    Statistics, such as these, don't matter. However, trends in statistics certainly matter, such as:

    The Pacers are 6-1 when Jamaal Tinsley has at least nine assists and 5-0 when Stephen Jackson scores at least 20 points.

    Jackson has averaged 18.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in the last three and the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 30 points in his 98 minutes on the floor.

    Jermaine O'Neal has averaged 21.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.67 blocked shots in the last six.

    Al Harrington has shot 7-of-26 (.269) in the last two.
    I think that stats such as these are far too general to be of much use.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by able View Post
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    without knowing........... what input, time frames/intervals, compensation values for minutes and opponents (who are they playing at that moment) what plays are ran and for who, and so on and so on neither of the articles are worth a penny except some nice advertising.
    You can say this after reading the link that I listed in the opening post? I thought it was very thorough in explaining how they derived at their conclusions.

    http://www.uncg.edu/eco/rosenbaum/NBA/winval2.htm

    The Dallas Mavs think that they're worth more than a penny, actually in the 6 digit range. Seems to be working pretty well for them.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by hoopsforlife View Post
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    We should just let Tinsley bring it up the floor and pass to Jackson for the shot until he hits his 20. Then just put another W in the win column.

    Oh wait, we're kind of doing that already. Whatever works I guess. After Jax get his 20 and the game is decided Tins can take all the rest of the shots.
    What you are noting is that ajbry has made the mistake of viewing the symptoms as the cause. Trend stats suggest a correlation of course, but that can easily be do to both outcomes being created by the same cause. In other words when the team runs a bunch of PnRs with Tinsley he gets a lot of assists and the team gets a lot of easy scores which leads to the win.

    It's not "Tinsley getting 9 assists" that makes the team win, it's a style of play that gets the win AND gets him 9 assists.


    I love Rosenbaums work. He makes a sincere and detailed effort to find meaning within the data. And while sports fans love to dismiss data work as meaningless it's used in all facets of life, including making cell phones work or airplanes fly.

    Don't confuse bad data analysis with proof that data analysis isn't valuable. They are still looking to improve even this system but at least it's a better effort than just "PPG RPG APG", or Hollinger's highly flawed summation efficiency that benefits stat stuffers.

    I guess 82games is using his system rather than WinVal or just basic +/-, at least as of the last week or so. They still don't have the numbers up for this year using this method as far as I see. What you see in INDIVIDUAL TEAM PAGES is NOT this advanced version of adjusted WinVal, it's raw +/-. All they have up is the Rosenbaum method applied to LAST YEAR'S stats.

    So we aren't talking about the same thing in most of these cases as what is described in that link to Dan R's methods.
    I improve on past efforts by combining estimates of player value using both pure adjusted plus/minus ratings and a statistical index derived from these pure adjusted plus/minus ratings. This hybrid approach leads to player ratings that unlike press accounts of WINVAL ratings, pass the “laugh test” (p. 181). In addition, the results from this approach are even less noisy than ratings based on traditional statistical indices alone.
    It's the inclusion of the other 9 players own +/- into a players own adjusted +/- that take it a step further, along with the fact that he also weights out +/- based on how close a game is (blowout time means very little) or if it's late in a close game (clutch).




    And from the Washington Times article on Winston-Sagarin's system
    http://www.washtimes.com/sports/2004...1657-1462r.htm
    Last summer, Winston and Sagarin met with Walsh, whose Pacers were upset by Boston in the first round of the playoffs. In splitting the first two games of that series, Indiana fielded a particular lineup that had a plus rating of nearly 50.
    Over the next three games, however, that lineup barely played.
    "When we showed that to Donnie, his eyebrows nearly flew off his forehead," Sagarin says.
    Though Walsh was intrigued, then-coach Isiah Thomas expressed little interest in the system.
    Wow, what a shocker. Nice job Zeke.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Sorry I never buy into these stats that require some special math problem to figure out.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    What you are noting is that ajbry has made the mistake of viewing the symptoms as the cause. Trend stats suggest a correlation of course, but that can easily be do to both outcomes being created by the same cause. In other words when the team runs a bunch of PnRs with Tinsley he gets a lot of assists and the team gets a lot of easy scores which leads to the win.

    It's not "Tinsley getting 9 assists" that makes the team win, it's a style of play that gets the win AND gets him 9 assists.


    I love Rosenbaums work. He makes a sincere and detailed effort to find meaning within the data. And while sports fans love to dismiss data work as meaningless it's used in all facets of life, including making cell phones work or airplanes fly.

    Don't confuse bad data analysis with proof that data analysis isn't valuable. They are still looking to improve even this system but at least it's a better effort than just "PPG RPG APG", or Hollinger's highly flawed summation efficiency that benefits stat stuffers.




    And from the Washington Times article on Winston-Sagarin's system
    http://www.washtimes.com/sports/2004...1657-1462r.htm

    Wow, what a shocker. Nice job Zeke.
    Damn, Seth, I think that's twice now that we've agreed on something. What's happening?

  16. #16

    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    You really have to be nuts to not realize that the team plays better overall basketball when Sarunas/DA are on the floor. I have to admit though that I am surprised about Granger being rated so low. It seems these ratings put the emphasis on team defense more than individual defensive skills and come to think of it, I don't find it so absurd to say that Sarunas plays better team defense than Granger if you really watch the games

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    WINVAL originally started with Sagarin at Dallas, but Cuban is a progressive owner and he's more open to these things. In a sense, Dallas is the first, but not necessarily best at using complex stats for games. San Antonio uses these types of analyses a lot too. Rosenbaum took Sagarin's basic model, and refined it quite a bit.

    There are a 2 or 3 guys out there who have been testing and doing this for years with fancy degrees, backgrounds in advanced CS, econ, etc. Most of these guys are consultants for teams. Most teams, in all honesty, have no idea what they're doing with this stuff.

    Dean Oliver helped the Supersonics achieve "overachiever" status, and Dan Rosenbaum is working with a team on statistical/personnel issues.

    Rosenbaum actually talks about the strength and weaknesses of WINVAL here http://danrosenbaum.blogspot.com/ He doesn't post here anymore since taking a position with the league.

    The post is titled: Using statistics in basketball: the bar is higher from Monday, August 29, 2005. The article speaks directly to the use of +/- stats vs. traditional scouting, and the weaknesses and strengths of each.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Moneybasketball?

    If Donnie Walsh retires, we should make a run at Billy Beane.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roferr View Post
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    Damn, Seth, I think that's twice now that we've agreed on something. What's happening?
    The problem is that you think this proves that Saras or Foster are good, or that Jackson is bad. At least I think that's what you view. I recall last year you being very big on the RAW per 48 +/- of Saras, for example. That's where we tend to disagree I think, not in the method of analyzing the team. In that regard we typically line up pretty well I think.


    Please note that Dan R's system noticed BOTH of these following things (for 03-04)
    Three players (Nenê, Jeff Foster, and Eric Williams) seem to have genuinely quite good ratings that cannot be explained away by sampling variation. Foster replaced an All-Star in Brad Miller and his team did not miss a beat, ending up with the best record in the League.
    Go Jeff.

    But...
    It appears that rebounds are less valuable than typically assumed

    Also a further note that I think 82games only did the standard adjusted +/- of Dan's formula, not the one that combines the "pure adjusted" with the one created by weighting stats into a formula in order to remove more of the noise (that crazy 5 minute player that is apparently 6th best in the NBA in raw stats).


    But you know me, I do believe in data as long as the applications of analysis are done with caution and understanding, something Dan is really good about. He will always qualify his work and note it's flaws and limitations.

    Even after all of this he suggests that there will likely still be a 15% error rate even with unlimited data points to enter (games played).

    I prefer to go to multiple data sources when looking at a player.


    I will say this, Dan's numbers totally supported my point about AI vs Andre Miller according to 82games David Lewin
    David runs the Dan R formula for 05-06
    The Allen Iverson Trade
    The biggest story in basketball lately is Allen Iverson’s move to Denver. There has been a lot of speculation as to whether the Nuggets are now a title contender, or if this trade even makes them better. Iverson is clearly a great scorer, but he tends to use a huge number of possessions inefficiently, and doesn’t play much defense. I was very surprised to see John Hollinger gloss over these facts in his recent review of the trade, but clearly he buys into the conventional wisdom that although Iverson is flawed his scoring ability is enough to make his teams better.

    Reality tells a bit of a different story. In 2005-2006 Iverson made his team 7.38 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court (as opposed to replacing him with an average player). This is good, 42nd in the league, but not as good as Iverson’s reputation would lead you to expect. Andre Miller closely followed Iverson, ranking 52nd with a value of 6.62. In 2004-2005 (full report on that data coming next week) Iverson actually had an impact of -4.41 compared to an average player. Miller was more consistent year to year, with a value of 5.62. This suggests that if both players play as they have in the past then the Nuggets will be at best as good as they were before the trade.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by rimock31 View Post
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    You really have to be nuts to not realize that the team plays better overall basketball when Sarunas/DA are on the floor. I have to admit though that I am surprised about Granger being rated so low. It seems these ratings put the emphasis on team defense more than individual defensive skills and come to think of it, I don't find it so absurd to say that Sarunas plays better team defense than Granger if you really watch the games
    Another thing to consider is who both of these players match up against. A lot of Granger's minutes come against lineups with 5 starters, or 4 starters/1 bench player. Most of Sarunas' minutes are against lineups with no more than 3 starting players. If you put Granger on a second unit, he would be matching up against less talented offensive players and his defense would "look better". If you consistently put Sarunas out there as a starter, the defense will be exposed.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    [QUOTE=Naptown_Seth;527028]The problem is that you think this proves that Saras or Foster are good, or that Jackson is bad. At least I think that's what you view. I recall last year you being very big on the RAW per 48 +/- of Saras, for example. That's where we tend to disagree I think, not in the method of analyzing the team. In that regard we typically line up pretty well I think.
    _________________________________________________

    There you go again, Seth....telling me what I think. I purposely, withheld any comment about any of the ratings of the particular players, so that you couldn't accuse me of what you just did.

    I posted the thread because, with all the variables that are factored in, the Winval stats are a better indicator than the +/-.

    I haven't made a derogatory remark about Jax for what seems like months. He's been playing his best ball, for the most part, since he became a Pacer. Even you have to admit, that his play has been much better than at any time last season. The big differences I think are shot selection and taking the ball to the rack with authority. When he does these two things, he's a different ballplayer which I've noted now several times.

    Why do you always think my posts are bashing Jax? You're not getting paranoid, are you.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by able View Post
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    without knowing........... what input, time frames/intervals, compensation values for minutes and opponents (who are they playing at that moment) what plays are ran and for who, and so on and so on neither of the articles are worth a penny except some nice advertising.
    Using your logic, all stats are worthless. I think that I will listen to the experts on this, they seem to know what they are talking about.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by ChicagoPacer View Post
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    WINVAL originally started with Sagarin at Dallas, but Cuban is a progressive owner and he's more open to these things. In a sense, Dallas is the first, but not necessarily best at using complex stats for games. San Antonio uses these types of analyses a lot too. Rosenbaum took Sagarin's basic model, and refined it quite a bit.

    There are a 2 or 3 guys out there who have been testing and doing this for years with fancy degrees, backgrounds in advanced CS, econ, etc. Most of these guys are consultants for teams. Most teams, in all honesty, have no idea what they're doing with this stuff.

    Dean Oliver helped the Supersonics achieve "overachiever" status, and Dan Rosenbaum is working with a team on statistical/personnel issues.

    Rosenbaum actually talks about the strength and weaknesses of WINVAL here http://danrosenbaum.blogspot.com/ He doesn't post here anymore since taking a position with the league.

    The post is titled: Using statistics in basketball: the bar is higher from Monday, August 29, 2005. The article speaks directly to the use of +/- stats vs. traditional scouting, and the weaknesses and strengths of each.
    No doubt, the team to which he was referring was the Mavs.
    .

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by bulldog View Post
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    I don't get what you're trying to say.

    Also, while I understand a message board is a venue for expressing your own personal opinions, I don't get how anyone can flippantly and totally disregard these systems when pretty much every team in the NBA employs systems like these, and one of the best uses the particular one in discussion.

    Basically, my point is these systems are used by people who know a lot about basketball, so anyone who's gonna go out and say they're entirely worthless should at least take the time to formulate some sort of dicussion.
    Sorry, I just do not see the amazingly significant information presented by the WINVAL statistics, to be that important in the scope of the team. In certain cases, WINVAL and +/- can prove to be useful, however, if you legitimately need them to determine your lineups (and judge individual performers), then there's something missing. You play your best players, hope it works out, and if it doesn't, you work on different lineups in practice and make adjustments that way. Otherwise, relying too heavily on some formulation created by someone who doesn't even watch your team on a regular basis just seems a bit flawed.

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    Default Re: Thoughts on the WINVAL stats?

    Quote Originally Posted by ajbry View Post
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    Sorry, I just do not see the amazingly significant information presented by the WINVAL statistics, to be that important in the scope of the team. In certain cases, WINVAL and +/- can prove to be useful, however, if you legitimately need them to determine your lineups (and judge individual performers), then there's something missing. You play your best players, hope it works out, and if it doesn't, you work on different lineups in practice and make adjustments that way. Otherwise, relying too heavily on some formulation created by someone who doesn't even watch your team on a regular basis just seems a bit flawed.

    I have the feeling that if these WINVAL stats showed that Jack had one of the better numbers, you would be singing a different tune.

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