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Thread: Tough schedule?

  1. #26
    Member Frank Slade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Indeed this should be a little easier stretch of games coming up. I am anxious to see if we can take advantage.

    Consider even now only one team the Sixers, have played less home games(12) than Indiana has which is at (15).

    Only 5 of Chicago's wins have come on the road as they are a dreadful 5 and 12 on the road with 4 more home games played than the Pacers.

    Clevleand who leads the conference has only won 7 of it's 22 games on the road, and is 7-9 over all away from home. Even Washington has only won 6 of it's 20 games on the road this year. (6-11 overall).

    Compare that to Indiana who has won half of it's 20 games on the road. These next few weeks will really tell us alot about this club and
    The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here

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  2. #27

    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

    This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.

  3. #28
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Slade View Post
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    The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here
    I like that. Definitely applies.


    Flava - I agree, great chance to win back fans. Of course if they don't make hay now then....

  4. #29
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Of course if they don't make hay now then....
    We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer
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  5. #30
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

    This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.

    yes but playing Mia twice in the next few weeks now that wade is back and Shaq has started to practice... both could have waited a couple weeks... makes those games harder then they look
    You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you? ..... You know, for a second there, yeah, I kinda did.....
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  6. #31
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer
    Hmm, this explains the smell after that NJ loss.

    I know Dallas is tough, but they did get a pretty favorable situation to play them both times, and then got 2 days off before the sub-500 NJ game.

    Still waiting on the hay to start getting made.

  7. #32
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Bumping this as we move forward with our new roster.

    Losing 4 straight really doesn't help, especially while we're trying to integrate all the new guys during a stretch where we need to be pounding out Ws.

    On a good note, we have 10 of our next 12 leading up to the break at home. Four of the opponents are pretty tough (Chicago, Detroit, LAL and Denver). Two are wildcards (Miami, Golden State). And six are VERY winnable (Toronto, Boston, Memphis [twice], Seattle, Clips).

    Jan 22 - CHICAGO
    Jan 24 - MIAMI
    Jan 27 - TORONTO
    Jan 28 - @ Detroit
    Jan 30 - BOSTON
    ----------------
    Feb 2 - LA LAKERS
    Feb 3 - @ Memphis
    Feb 5 - Golden State
    Feb 7 - Seattle
    Feb 9 - Denver
    Feb 11 - LA CLIPPERS
    Feb 14 - MEMPHIS

    We really need to get out of this at around 29 - 23. Something like 27 - 25 wouldn't be disastrous, but we really do need to get a little cushion here before heading into a brutal, brutal March.

    Feb 27 - PHOENIX
    Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
    Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
    Mar 7 - @ Utah
    Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
    Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
    Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
    Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
    Mar 17 - ATLANTA
    Mar 20 - @ Houston
    Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
    Mar 23 - MIAMI
    Mar 25 - CHICAGO
    Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
    Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
    Mar 30 - @ Orlando










































  8. #33
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Home 12-7
    Road 10-13

    Projects to
    Home 26-15
    Road 18-23
    Total 44-38

    Nothing has changed on the Home/Road projection, despite that NYK loss.

    How about West vs East
    East 17-12
    West 5-8

    Projects to
    East 30-22
    West 11-19 or 12-18
    Total 41-41

    FEB features every remaining HOME game vs a West team except for the Spurs game to start April. After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

    @ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal. So no complaining that things "suddenly" fell apart if they do well in FEB and tumble in March...by the schedule they should and the difference on paper should be really dramatic.

    We can only hope that the easy phase with lots of home games will help get them in synch just in time for the trial by fire. One thing seems certain, they won't back their way into the playoffs this year. They will have to earn their way into contention in March.

    Quote Originally Posted by me on page 1
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    "If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances."

    Add the 1-1 already and you have me currently expecting a 9-4 or 8-5 JAN, which I guess means that I expect to be pumped about their chances.
    5-5, with TOR, BOS and @DET still to go. It will take another big win in Detroit to reach just the 8-5 mark, partly due to that darn NYK loss, and a little to the NJ game letdown.



    I don't know. Looking at the last month and what lies ahead, I'm a bit concerned. They must win those home games vs TOR and BOS IMO.

  9. #34
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

    @ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal.
    If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

    Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

    March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.

  10. #35
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayRedd View Post
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    If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

    Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

    March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.
    Am I laughing or crying at this?

    They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

    My guess at March
    Wins
    Phi, Atl, Wsh (maybe), Chi (feel good about that one), Miami (depends on Shaq and their whole situation), @SAC, one of the CLE games (here or there), @NJ (maybe)

    Losses
    @PHX, @LAC (could get this one perhaps), @UTH, @CLE (or the home version later), @MIN, @HOU, @SA, @ORL


    So 8-8 MAX at this point. For every surprise win I'd expect a surprise loss, and honestly I consider most of the "maybe wins" to be weaker chances for wins than for losses. 5-11 isn't insane to consider.

    Add in the PHX game here to end FEB and those first 2 April games and they could be looking at 6-13, or a 7 game drop in the over/under .500 number.

    That's why FEB is so critical. Get to 10-11 games over to ride out the tough stretch. 10-3 from now till PHX in Indy gets them 9 over. 10-11 over is nearly out of reach.

    Could be looking realistically at 38-36 going into the final 8 games, 5 of which are on the road, but only 3-4 are against possible playoff teams.

  11. #36
    Member quiller's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Yes. I am worried a little bit also about the march stretch. But I am just hoping that this team gets playing well enough that it just wills its way to a few wins to prevent any long prolonged loosing stretch.. and win half the games played in march..

    But the thing about March also is the back to back as brought up in another thread...

    @Utah, @ clev home Was, @ SA are all on second nights of back to back those are very very difficult games with the style of play of Utah, Cleve and Was all mostly up tempo hard to bring the intensity needed on back to back nights. Then SA... one of the top teams period.... and I haven't even mentioned our other two back to back final games in march @ clips after playing Pho and @ NJ after home game with Clev..... not easy win's either....

    this team just can not loose games in march they should win... if its a close game they have to find a way to win it not loose it.... and no let down against a "weaker" team.
    You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you? ..... You know, for a second there, yeah, I kinda did.....
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  12. #37
    Member Frank Slade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Well Det, Chi, and Cle all tied for first in the Division
    Pacers just two games back.

    Why Not Us ?


  13. #38
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    On the home/road thing, right now only 2 NBA teams are better on the road than at home, Detroit and Denver. And neither is very good at home by NBA standards.

    Detroit is only 12-9 at home, which puts them close to the company of teams like Seattle, NJ, and NOK. On the road they are 14-9 which doesn't sound incredible but relative to the league is very good (4th, though 1-3 are clearly better records).

    Denver is bordering on poor at home, going .500, that's getting into Portland, NY, ATL territory. But their 12-11 road record is again fairly decent. Of course just a 2-3 game home win streak flips their home record in front of the road one, so it could quickly be only DET as the team better suited for the road.


    The main point in this other than curiousity is that this H vs R thing isn't a BS spin to make us feel better or worse about the schedule. It's almost always a big impact on the outcomes.

    IMO a 4-6th seed should expect to win the next 10 games on the schedule before PHX comes to town at the end of the month. Time to raise out expectations way up.

  14. #39
    Member Frank Slade's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    And boy talk about an opportunity, In the next 11 games Indiana has
    9 at home! While Chicago's schedule is finally catching up to them, they play 8 out of the next 11 on the road.

    The best opportunity of the season to make a strong push , and move up in the division.

    Why Not Us ?


  15. #40
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    1 down, 9 to go (Gasol's return does make #2 a lot tougher)

  16. #41
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Okay, at the break and most of the way through the easy run of games. For some reason I had been leaving out the Boston game and saying 10 rather than 11. Anyway, so far it's definitely below my expectations considering the matchups.

    W Bos
    W LAL
    W @Mem
    L GS
    L Sea
    L Den
    W LAC
    W Mem
    Mil
    @Tor
    Sac

    5-3 with 3 to go. They need to pick up bonus wins on that West trip or at least vs PHX at home to make up for the couple of duds on the homestand. They certainly haven't given us much reason to expect them to pull something like that off.

    Here's where the home-road has them projected now.
    Home 17-10
    Road 11-14

    Projects to
    Home 26-15
    Road 18-23
    44-38 overall

    They now have MORE ROAD GAMES left than home games. Of those 16 road games, 7 are out west. 8 are vs teams at .500 or better, 9 are vs PLAYOFF teams (as of now) and 2 others are teams on the bordeline of the playoffs, LAC 1/2 behind MIN and the Nets still lingering 4 games under .500 and still within striking distance of taking Indy out of the postseason.

    The current projection has them going 7-9 on the road to finish out, but that's due to easier road games early on in the schedule. 5-11 might be more realistic to hope for on the road.

    If that happens then you are talking 42-40 instead.

    Time to start closely watching the Nets and hoping they don't put a 7-3 run together anytime soon.


    The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".

    I hope we are talking playoff seeding at the PD party rather than lottery seeding, especially if it's spot 11-14 in the draft.

  17. #42
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".
    Well the TOR outcome didn't kill off that GFL attitude, that's for sure. It was exactly what I feared seeing, a reality check regarding playing winning teams on the road.

    More good news, copied from my post in the Quis/Jack thread.

    While at home in this stretch (starting vs NY) they've faced 8 teams under .500 in Conseco.

    So what you say? So this. They only face SIX teams under .500 at home the rest of the freaking season. That matches what they just faced in their last 6 games, except that Denver is actually at .500 right now. To get to six technically you have to go back to the BOS game to make it 6 losers at home in nine games.


    The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind. There are a lot more games like @TOR on the way than ones hosting MIL or MEM. IMO the Pacers will be at or below .500 within the next 10 games.


    However I found that with my lowered expectations I was able to really enjoy the TOR game. There were lots of things about the team I did like and I didn't really feel bothered by the loss because I've felt that TOR was better than Indy for at least the last couple of weeks.

  18. #43
    It Might Be a Soft J JayRedd's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind.
    Especially when you see that going on the road to play the team that blew us out at home last night is the third easiest game of the next month (after home games with Philly and ATL).

    Yall ready for this gauntlet? Six of these are back-to-backs.

    Feb 27 - PHOENIX
    Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
    Mar 3 - @ LAC
    Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
    Mar 7 - @ Utah
    Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
    Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
    Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
    Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
    Mar 17 - ATLANTA
    Mar 20 - @ Houston
    Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
    Mar 23 - MIAMI
    Mar 25 - CHICAGO
    Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
    Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
    Mar 30 - @ Orlando

  19. #44
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    This is why I was asking about their draft pick protection. Seriously.

    Wade might be their only salvation.

    I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

    Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

    The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

    Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

    ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.


    So the 8th seed looks to be a race between NY and IND at this point. Both of which will be ushered out in a hurry by DET.

    The real bad news is that it's very possible that the Knicks could beat out Indy for the 8th seed (ugh) and that the Pacers could fall behind GS, Minny, LAC, etc and yet miss a top 10 pick when ORL loses their way into the 10th spot vacated by those other teams.

    I don't see any of the other 9 worst teams catching the Pacers at all.



    Again this is just on paper I realize. But you'll excuse me if I get my umbrella out because I see storm clouds on the horizon. I don't think this is doom and gloom, it's not a huge stretch to expect losses to teams like CHI, UTH, WSH or HOU. The betting lines sure aren't going to have the Pacers as faves very often the next month or so.


    Unlike some PD posters, I won't get off the wagon, even if they end up with the 11th worst record, no playoffs and no draft pick. Oh well, at least they have youth that is developing. There's always a little sunshine to be found.

    And if they surprise me with some huge wins, it will be that much sweeter.

  20. #45
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    As I scan the the March schedule I see the Pacers going 6-10.

    I don't see how the Pacers will possibly win at Phoenix, Utah, Houston, San Antonio. Pacers could play very well in those games and still lose. So that is 4 losses right there. And then if they go 6-6 in the other 12 games that would give the pacers a 6-10 record.

    So at the end of March we'll have a 35-36 record.

    Of course if you look at March - you could make a case that the Pacers could go 2-14 with there only wins at home after two days off before playing the Sixers and an improving Hawks team.

  21. #46
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Buck, here's how I'm looking at it

    Losses
    Feb 27 - PHOENIX
    Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
    Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
    Mar 7 - @ Utah
    Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
    Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
    Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
    Mar 20 - @ Houston
    Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
    Mar 25 - CHICAGO
    Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
    Mar 28 - @ New Jersey

    Wins
    Mar 3 - @ LAC
    Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
    Mar 17 - ATLANTA
    Mar 23 - MIAMI
    Mar 30 - @ Orlando


    Okay, CHI and CLE are here and the Pacers have beat them, but it seems to me that both are on the upswing while the Pacers are looking worse. Maybe you win one of those, but maybe you lose the MIA game if they have Shaq and aren't hurt without Wade as much as expected.

    NJ has played their way into the playoffs and have already worked the Pacers over in NJ.

    Loss to SAC is iffy, but so is the win @LAC

    That's where my 5-12 came from.


    And yet I was doing a little looking at Pacers tix anyway. I honestly don't give a F that they are in trouble and could be in bad shape in a month. I didn't hate Jack, I don't hate Dun, and I don't hate that it's not going as well as I'd hoped.

    I want them to stay positive, so I hold myself to the same expectations. Just play the game in front of you the best you can and will see how it goes.

  22. #47
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Well I had them down as losing all but 1 of the 2 games vs SAC and LAC, so not that shocked at this point. Not sure why this caught some people off-guard.

    So far the following is still on-target
    I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

    Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

    The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

    Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

    ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.
    MIA now in front of Indy.

    NJ and NY are on the Pacers heels. Pacers could go 2-3 in their next 5. That would put them at 31-34.

    Next 5 for MIA, NY and NJ (I'm considering ORL officially done right now):

    MIA (31-29) coming off home wins over DET and CHI btw
    MIN, WSH, UTH, @NJ, SAC - I'd say 3-2 at least, putting more distance on the Pacers.

    NY (28-34)
    @WSH, @TOR, OKC, TOR, DAL - so at best 2-3 themselves and still trailing Indy

    NJ (28-33)
    @HOU, @SA, @MEM, @OKC, MIA - I think 1-4 with OKC being a 2nd night of a back to back road trip. Pacers look to be safe from NJ for the time being.


    Looking ahead I think 39 wins might be enough to stay in the playoffs after all.

    NY is 11-10 since the midpoint, carry that out and they finish at 38 wins, maybe 39. NJ is actually 8-12 since the 41 game point and are looking at 36-37 wins projected, and their 12 road game schedule full of playoff teams does nothing to dispel that expectation.

    So I guess Indy might be safe after all baring a mega-tank. Here are the 10 easiest games left for them (which would put them at 39 wins and probably in the playoffs):

    BOS
    ATL
    PHI (but without JO?)
    NJ

    @PHI
    @MIL
    @ATL
    @NJ
    @ORL
    @CHA

    Here's the one troublesome thing. Add in the @Minny game and that gives you ALL the reamaining games vs teams under .500, home or road). So 39 wins is reasonable, but not certain.

    It could still come down to the 2 games vs NJ. Might put NJ at 38 wins and leave Indy at 37, something like that.


    BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

    As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.

  23. #48
    Member indyman37's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    I glanced at the schedule for March through April...I think if the teams keeps playing at this level we could go on a 21 game losing streak. But that may be me dreaming of the draft again.

  24. #49
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.
    Still about the same 10 days later.

    Another set of very tough opponents on deck. @HOU looks rough and the next night they are in SA for what seems to be certain disaster. But after that they only play one more road game vs a winning team (MIA).

    In the meantime they come home for 3 games with a day of rest between each one. While the opponents are tough, it could be a chance to steal an unexpected win. Unfortunately each of those teams is coming in with their own day of rest, and in fact Chicago has several days off between a game in Chi-town and coming down to Indy.

    Another disgusting break against Indy, they head out of this 3 game homestand to visit New Jersey on a 2nd night of a back to back. Meanwhile the Nets have 3 days off waiting on the Pacers' visit. Hardly seems fair.


    They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

  25. #50
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Tough schedule?

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

    As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.
    I seriously doubt this team is going to increase its winning percentage. Beating the Hawks at Conseco without Joe Johnson and on the heels of an 11 game losing streak is fools gold. It was about time.

    The next 5 teams are legit championship contenders fighting for playoff position. This is not November. If we win 1 of those with JO and Quis lame we will be fortunate.

    Then we face Jersey at their house which just got Richard Jefferson back. Then Orlando at Orlando. Orlando will see us an opportunity for sure. We might pick up another win.

    Then we have Detroit and San Antonio. Two more losses. Then the schedule lightens up, but we play 5 out of 8 on the road...with 3 back to backs. These teams will try to play spoiler and will not lay down. I say we win 3 or 4 of those.

    OK, at most 6 more wins. That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.

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