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Tough schedule?

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  • #31
    Re: Tough schedule?

    Originally posted by JayRedd View Post
    We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer
    Hmm, this explains the smell after that NJ loss.

    I know Dallas is tough, but they did get a pretty favorable situation to play them both times, and then got 2 days off before the sub-500 NJ game.

    Still waiting on the hay to start getting made.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Tough schedule?

      Bumping this as we move forward with our new roster.

      Losing 4 straight really doesn't help, especially while we're trying to integrate all the new guys during a stretch where we need to be pounding out Ws.

      On a good note, we have 10 of our next 12 leading up to the break at home. Four of the opponents are pretty tough (Chicago, Detroit, LAL and Denver). Two are wildcards (Miami, Golden State). And six are VERY winnable (Toronto, Boston, Memphis [twice], Seattle, Clips).

      Jan 22 - CHICAGO
      Jan 24 - MIAMI
      Jan 27 - TORONTO
      Jan 28 - @ Detroit
      Jan 30 - BOSTON
      ----------------
      Feb 2 - LA LAKERS
      Feb 3 - @ Memphis
      Feb 5 - Golden State
      Feb 7 - Seattle
      Feb 9 - Denver
      Feb 11 - LA CLIPPERS
      Feb 14 - MEMPHIS

      We really need to get out of this at around 29 - 23. Something like 27 - 25 wouldn't be disastrous, but we really do need to get a little cushion here before heading into a brutal, brutal March.

      Feb 27 - PHOENIX
      Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
      Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
      Mar 7 - @ Utah
      Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
      Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
      Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
      Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
      Mar 17 - ATLANTA
      Mar 20 - @ Houston
      Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
      Mar 23 - MIAMI
      Mar 25 - CHICAGO
      Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
      Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
      Mar 30 - @ Orlando









































      Read my Pacers blog:
      8points9seconds.com

      Follow my twitter:

      @8pts9secs

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      • #33
        Re: Tough schedule?

        Home 12-7
        Road 10-13

        Projects to
        Home 26-15
        Road 18-23
        Total 44-38

        Nothing has changed on the Home/Road projection, despite that NYK loss.

        How about West vs East
        East 17-12
        West 5-8

        Projects to
        East 30-22
        West 11-19 or 12-18
        Total 41-41

        FEB features every remaining HOME game vs a West team except for the Spurs game to start April. After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

        @ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal. So no complaining that things "suddenly" fell apart if they do well in FEB and tumble in March...by the schedule they should and the difference on paper should be really dramatic.

        We can only hope that the easy phase with lots of home games will help get them in synch just in time for the trial by fire. One thing seems certain, they won't back their way into the playoffs this year. They will have to earn their way into contention in March.

        Originally posted by me on page 1
        "If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances."

        Add the 1-1 already and you have me currently expecting a 9-4 or 8-5 JAN, which I guess means that I expect to be pumped about their chances.
        5-5, with TOR, BOS and @DET still to go. It will take another big win in Detroit to reach just the 8-5 mark, partly due to that darn NYK loss, and a little to the NJ game letdown.



        I don't know. Looking at the last month and what lies ahead, I'm a bit concerned. They must win those home games vs TOR and BOS IMO.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Tough schedule?

          Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
          After FEB it's all back on the road vs some really tough West teams, so as said in prior weeks here, now's the time to get something done. March is trips to Utah, PHX, HOU, LAC, MIN and SA.

          @ SAC actually counts as one of the few "easy" games in March, just to put it in perspective. March is just insanely brutal.
          If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

          Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

          March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.
          Read my Pacers blog:
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          Follow my twitter:

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          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Tough schedule?

            Originally posted by JayRedd View Post
            If we go 7-9 in March, I will be extremely happy.

            Aside from Philly and Atlanta at home, there's probably not a single other game on the schedule where we will be the favorite in Vegas.

            March is simply ridiculous. I'm half-expecting Stern to add another couple of games for us against the Dream Team and the '86 Celtics just for fun.
            Am I laughing or crying at this?

            They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

            My guess at March
            Wins
            Phi, Atl, Wsh (maybe), Chi (feel good about that one), Miami (depends on Shaq and their whole situation), @SAC, one of the CLE games (here or there), @NJ (maybe)

            Losses
            @PHX, @LAC (could get this one perhaps), @UTH, @CLE (or the home version later), @MIN, @HOU, @SA, @ORL


            So 8-8 MAX at this point. For every surprise win I'd expect a surprise loss, and honestly I consider most of the "maybe wins" to be weaker chances for wins than for losses. 5-11 isn't insane to consider.

            Add in the PHX game here to end FEB and those first 2 April games and they could be looking at 6-13, or a 7 game drop in the over/under .500 number.

            That's why FEB is so critical. Get to 10-11 games over to ride out the tough stretch. 10-3 from now till PHX in Indy gets them 9 over. 10-11 over is nearly out of reach.

            Could be looking realistically at 38-36 going into the final 8 games, 5 of which are on the road, but only 3-4 are against possible playoff teams.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Tough schedule?

              Yes. I am worried a little bit also about the march stretch. But I am just hoping that this team gets playing well enough that it just wills its way to a few wins to prevent any long prolonged loosing stretch.. and win half the games played in march..

              But the thing about March also is the back to back as brought up in another thread...

              @Utah, @ clev home Was, @ SA are all on second nights of back to back those are very very difficult games with the style of play of Utah, Cleve and Was all mostly up tempo hard to bring the intensity needed on back to back nights. Then SA... one of the top teams period.... and I haven't even mentioned our other two back to back final games in march @ clips after playing Pho and @ NJ after home game with Clev..... not easy win's either....

              this team just can not loose games in march they should win... if its a close game they have to find a way to win it not loose it.... and no let down against a "weaker" team.
              You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you? ..... You know, for a second there, yeah, I kinda did.....
              Silly rabbit..... Trix are for kids.

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Tough schedule?

                Well Det, Chi, and Cle all tied for first in the Division
                Pacers just two games back.

                Why Not Us ?

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Tough schedule?

                  On the home/road thing, right now only 2 NBA teams are better on the road than at home, Detroit and Denver. And neither is very good at home by NBA standards.

                  Detroit is only 12-9 at home, which puts them close to the company of teams like Seattle, NJ, and NOK. On the road they are 14-9 which doesn't sound incredible but relative to the league is very good (4th, though 1-3 are clearly better records).

                  Denver is bordering on poor at home, going .500, that's getting into Portland, NY, ATL territory. But their 12-11 road record is again fairly decent. Of course just a 2-3 game home win streak flips their home record in front of the road one, so it could quickly be only DET as the team better suited for the road.


                  The main point in this other than curiousity is that this H vs R thing isn't a BS spin to make us feel better or worse about the schedule. It's almost always a big impact on the outcomes.

                  IMO a 4-6th seed should expect to win the next 10 games on the schedule before PHX comes to town at the end of the month. Time to raise out expectations way up.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Tough schedule?

                    And boy talk about an opportunity, In the next 11 games Indiana has
                    9 at home! While Chicago's schedule is finally catching up to them, they play 8 out of the next 11 on the road.

                    The best opportunity of the season to make a strong push , and move up in the division.

                    Why Not Us ?

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Tough schedule?

                      1 down, 9 to go (Gasol's return does make #2 a lot tougher)

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Tough schedule?

                        Okay, at the break and most of the way through the easy run of games. For some reason I had been leaving out the Boston game and saying 10 rather than 11. Anyway, so far it's definitely below my expectations considering the matchups.

                        W Bos
                        W LAL
                        W @Mem
                        L GS
                        L Sea
                        L Den
                        W LAC
                        W Mem
                        Mil
                        @Tor
                        Sac

                        5-3 with 3 to go. They need to pick up bonus wins on that West trip or at least vs PHX at home to make up for the couple of duds on the homestand. They certainly haven't given us much reason to expect them to pull something like that off.

                        Here's where the home-road has them projected now.
                        Home 17-10
                        Road 11-14

                        Projects to
                        Home 26-15
                        Road 18-23
                        44-38 overall

                        They now have MORE ROAD GAMES left than home games. Of those 16 road games, 7 are out west. 8 are vs teams at .500 or better, 9 are vs PLAYOFF teams (as of now) and 2 others are teams on the bordeline of the playoffs, LAC 1/2 behind MIN and the Nets still lingering 4 games under .500 and still within striking distance of taking Indy out of the postseason.

                        The current projection has them going 7-9 on the road to finish out, but that's due to easier road games early on in the schedule. 5-11 might be more realistic to hope for on the road.

                        If that happens then you are talking 42-40 instead.

                        Time to start closely watching the Nets and hoping they don't put a 7-3 run together anytime soon.


                        The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".

                        I hope we are talking playoff seeding at the PD party rather than lottery seeding, especially if it's spot 11-14 in the draft.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Tough schedule?

                          The Sunshiner half in me is hopeful that with some big road wins they'll fix their situation and make me a believer. A win in SA or UTH would carry a ton of weight. But the realistic side of me says "GFL".
                          Well the TOR outcome didn't kill off that GFL attitude, that's for sure. It was exactly what I feared seeing, a reality check regarding playing winning teams on the road.

                          More good news, copied from my post in the Quis/Jack thread.

                          While at home in this stretch (starting vs NY) they've faced 8 teams under .500 in Conseco.

                          So what you say? So this. They only face SIX teams under .500 at home the rest of the freaking season. That matches what they just faced in their last 6 games, except that Denver is actually at .500 right now. To get to six technically you have to go back to the BOS game to make it 6 losers at home in nine games.


                          The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind. There are a lot more games like @TOR on the way than ones hosting MIL or MEM. IMO the Pacers will be at or below .500 within the next 10 games.


                          However I found that with my lowered expectations I was able to really enjoy the TOR game. There were lots of things about the team I did like and I didn't really feel bothered by the loss because I've felt that TOR was better than Indy for at least the last couple of weeks.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Tough schedule?

                            Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                            The phrase "uh-oh" comes to mind.
                            Especially when you see that going on the road to play the team that blew us out at home last night is the third easiest game of the next month (after home games with Philly and ATL).

                            Yall ready for this gauntlet? Six of these are back-to-backs.

                            Feb 27 - PHOENIX
                            Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
                            Mar 3 - @ LAC
                            Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
                            Mar 7 - @ Utah
                            Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
                            Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
                            Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
                            Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
                            Mar 17 - ATLANTA
                            Mar 20 - @ Houston
                            Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
                            Mar 23 - MIAMI
                            Mar 25 - CHICAGO
                            Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
                            Mar 28 - @ New Jersey
                            Mar 30 - @ Orlando
                            Read my Pacers blog:
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                            Follow my twitter:

                            @8pts9secs

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                            • #44
                              Re: Tough schedule?

                              This is why I was asking about their draft pick protection. Seriously.

                              Wade might be their only salvation.

                              I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

                              Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

                              The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

                              Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

                              ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.


                              So the 8th seed looks to be a race between NY and IND at this point. Both of which will be ushered out in a hurry by DET.

                              The real bad news is that it's very possible that the Knicks could beat out Indy for the 8th seed (ugh) and that the Pacers could fall behind GS, Minny, LAC, etc and yet miss a top 10 pick when ORL loses their way into the 10th spot vacated by those other teams.

                              I don't see any of the other 9 worst teams catching the Pacers at all.



                              Again this is just on paper I realize. But you'll excuse me if I get my umbrella out because I see storm clouds on the horizon. I don't think this is doom and gloom, it's not a huge stretch to expect losses to teams like CHI, UTH, WSH or HOU. The betting lines sure aren't going to have the Pacers as faves very often the next month or so.


                              Unlike some PD posters, I won't get off the wagon, even if they end up with the 11th worst record, no playoffs and no draft pick. Oh well, at least they have youth that is developing. There's always a little sunshine to be found.

                              And if they surprise me with some huge wins, it will be that much sweeter.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Tough schedule?

                                As I scan the the March schedule I see the Pacers going 6-10.

                                I don't see how the Pacers will possibly win at Phoenix, Utah, Houston, San Antonio. Pacers could play very well in those games and still lose. So that is 4 losses right there. And then if they go 6-6 in the other 12 games that would give the pacers a 6-10 record.

                                So at the end of March we'll have a 35-36 record.

                                Of course if you look at March - you could make a case that the Pacers could go 2-14 with there only wins at home after two days off before playing the Sixers and an improving Hawks team.

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