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Tough schedule?

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  • Tough schedule?

    Okay, when the schedule first came out my reaction (maybe only at Star, not sure about at PD) was that the final month or so was going to be brutal, but that the Pacers had a soft start to the season.

    Then people talked about all the road vs home games and the idea of it being a tough start picked up for me I guess. But more than that I think I wrapped the idea of the Pacers just having a rough early season due to chemistry/roster issues (as in trying to figure it all out and learning to play together) into the idea that the matchups were tough.


    So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.

    One playoff team from last year so far and they blasted the Pacers. The team has been handed a patty-cake start which is just what they needed to help get them through the learning phase.

    I'll give you that perhaps NO/OKC is the real deal which makes that loss look more acceptable, but are any of the wins games that a fan would have thought was a reasonable loss for a GOOD team? Not IMO.

    The 2 road games at Chicago, now there is a marker to go by. Cleveland and NJ are decent matchups, though both at home and NJ especially didn't look threatening last year.

    The first West trip is even the lighter version - borderline teams like GS, LAL and Denver are the tough games. No PHX or DAL (even with the slow starts let's be realistic), no SA, no LAC, no Utah.

    In December they have about 10-11 wins expected at least if they are of the CLE, CHI, DET, MIA caliber squad.

    Contrast the first 2 months with stuff like JAN which features on the road - DAL, NO/OKC, NJ, MIA and DET. And at home - DAL, CHI, MIA. You have 5 "easy" games thrown into that mix. It's downright brutal compared to this month's lineup.

    March is just as painful with road games - PHX, LAC, Sacto, Utah, CLE, HOU, SA, and NJ. Home games - WSH, MIA, CHI, CLE. You've only got 4 "easy" games to go with those 12 tough ones, and that's with games at Minny and at ORL being 2 of the "rest stops". And that 4 game West trip is 2 pairs of BACK TO BACKS even, which really hurts them with that level of travel. The month features 6 back to backs in total.

    April ends up being an easy month because it "only" features home games vs SA, DET, NJ and WSH and 1 road game at MIA. A month that is only 50-50 in terms of "tough" vs "easy" games with several of the tough ones at home.



    The point? I like the early wins and had my concerns about the team finding their way early, but the hard truth is that even if they are a solid 4-8th seed team they could hit the skids hard in the 2nd half of the season. Their schedule is heavily back loaded with tough games.

    Fans might want to be prepared and to keep things in perspective. If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.


    PS - naturally it could end up different if someone like PHX really is in the toilet. There could be some surprisingly good or bad teams as always. I just wouldn't count on it since the NBA typically doesn't shock fans. Bad teams become competitive (or vice versa) but they don't win it all out of nowhere.

  • #2
    Re: Tough schedule?

    BTW, you want tough? Look at Chicago's Novemeber schedule. They get a 7 game road trip that includes the Texas dip plus LAL and DEN as the "easy" West teams, instead of being the toughest on the trip. Even their easier PHI matchup comes at the end of the trip with travel from LA to DEN to PHI. They get a few days to catch up, but still its a coast to coast with no home time in between.

    They also had/have games at MIA and CLE plus home games vs SAC and IND. If they come out of the month above .500 they should be feeling pretty good about their chances.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Tough schedule?

      Their are teams with tougher schedules than us--and I'd argue that there's no such thing as an easy NBA schedule--but I still see ours as pretty brutal.

      For the elite teams in the NBA (50+ wins) the general rule is to "Protect your home court and go .500 on the road." So by that logic, with us "protecting" Conseco by going 4-2 in our 6 home games in Nov and .500 in our 10 road games, we'd be 9-7.

      December has 8 at home and 8 on the road, so ideally, if we are elite, we'd win 6 of the homes and 4 of the aways. That would give us an overall record of 19-13 on January 1. But, while I like what I see so far out of this group, I'm not ready to proclaim us a 50+ win squad that's gonna be in 70% home wins category. Especially not until our "sell-outs" start looking like there's actually 18,000+ in the stands.

      Plus, we have 8 more back-to-backs before 2007, which always is more difficult. Plus, we have to expect at least a minor injury or two from our key guys that will make things tougher.

      So, if you look at the names of the teams we play, we don't have SA, DAL, PHX, MIA, NJ, CHI, LAC, HOU, UTAH three times each or anything, but it's difficult to win on the road even in Portland, Charlotte or Boston in this league.

      And we have 9 of our next 12 on the road. Let's just say, I'm glad we got a little cushion early. And I'll be happy if come back from out West at 9-9.
      Read my Pacers blog:
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      • #4
        Re: Tough schedule?

        Yeah, I also thought the road fears were unwarranted. Not only is the competition light, but one would think all the early travel helps chemistry and cohesion.
        Come to the Dark Side -- There's cookies!

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        • #5
          Re: Tough schedule?

          December is the toughest month, mainly for the number of games. Or I should say starting right after Thanksgiving things get really tough. With 4 in 5 days all on the road, and 5 out of 7 coming and going, and then it doesn't let up when the pacers get home. ,

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Tough schedule?

            Jay, I agree with that rule of thumb, but we both know that it's based overall on how many tough vs easy games you will face on the road. You end up .500 by getting wins in CHA to make up for losses in SA, DAL or MIA.

            The problem could be that they end up "spending" some of those make-up wins on losses to teams they should beat, which will force them to go .500 on the road vs almost all 50+ win caliber squads.

            Don't get me wrong, I'm 100% happy with how they've come out. I just fear that some fans are going to get really negative when the going gets tough, because it gets a lot tougher after New Year's in terms of WHO they play rather than when and where.

            Tonight's game at Chicago was a hopeful sign. If they can keep from losing too many due to their own internal struggles and can get it together in the next 2 months they could still slot decently in the playoffs.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Tough schedule?

              Another note about the schedule, after the tough CHI loss the Pacers are getting a really strong chance to regroup and start to put it together for a little run.

              3 days off before going to Boston, then games vs ORL, MIL (home and away), NJ in Indy and at ORL before hosting CLE in a few weeks. Going 4-1 in that stretch is certainly within reach I think, and that would plant them at a nice 8-4 and a possible shot at passing CLE for the Central lead with a win in their game.

              Now's the time to fatten up a bit for the lean days to come.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Tough schedule?

                Personally, I would have liked to see the Pacers start off with a few games with last year's playoff teams. We knew that it was going to be shooting craps as far as settling on a consinstent starting five and substitution pattern.

                The losses would be losses we wouldn't have to sustain against the better teams later on in the season when we are a more developed team. As it stands now, we have 5 losses to some border-line teams, which would have been much more winnable later in the season.

                Except for the Bulls and Nets, who have we played? The way the Bulls have played makes me wonder whether I've entirely over-rated them when I picked them to take it all, but that's another post.

                Now, when we face the elite, we're going to get hit like running into a brick wall. Maybe, we've just been playing down to the level of our competition and will step it up when the big boys come on.

                My concern is that when we do round into shape and are playing are best ball, it just might not be good enough for the best teams and we lose a few hard fought, close games.
                .

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Tough schedule?

                  Yeah, I said something similar somewhere around here recently, that now would be the time to take those "probable" losses in Dallas or San Antonio or Miami.

                  It's tough, do you take easier competition when you are weak so you have a chance to win every game over the course of the season, but also to lose them all? Or do you concede 30-40 early losses in order to have winning matchups to end the year?

                  Having seen them lose a few of these easier games we obviously agree that it would be better to lose what you were going to probably lose anyway. But that's hindsight talking.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Tough schedule?

                    I will say that after seeing the team come out in the 2nd half looking really tired/disinterested I think JayRedd's point about road games looks stronger.

                    Others had been focusing on it which got me looking back at it, but right now the Pacers again (still) lead the NBA in road games, with 12. Only a couple of other teams even have 10-11 road games yet. And the Pacers still have another one yet to come.

                    In fact 3 teams have 10 and 2 others have 11. Guess what, all 6 teams with 10+ road games are from the EAST. Maybe that has something to do with the East vs West thing too. I was surprised to notice how unbalanced that was at this point.

                    The West only has 4 teams that have even played 9 road games, and GS has only played 4. The Lakers have only played 5, and one of those was vs LAC which is literally a home game still. The Lakers haven't gone east of Salt Lake City yet.

                    So maybe the road-home thing will alter some of the landscape. The Lakers eventually have an 8 game road trip in which they don't go WEST of Detroit/Indy for about 2 weeks...and during the FEB winter no less, Atlanta being the only warm weather city on the trip.


                    Best thing to note, the Pacers are 2-1 vs the top 3 East teams (1-1 vs ORL, 1-0 vs CLE, 0-0 vs DET).

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                    • #11
                      Re: Tough schedule?

                      My pre-season hope was for 7 wins in the first 20 games, and maybe .500 by the ASB. Even with letdown games like we had at Denver, we are still exceeding my expectations. (or so I remind myself)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Tough schedule?

                        I think our record is about as good as we could expect right now. The road is always tough, no matter the competition. Especially on the extended trips.

                        But I really think it's good that we had all these road games early. With all the new personnel, and all of the new things Rick is supposedly implementing, we weren't going to be consistent or find an identity in the first 20 games anyway. Given that, I doubt we would have done much better had we played 14 homes games during this adjustment phase. So may as well get the roadies out the way while we're figuring the rotations/assignments/roles/etc.

                        We've exceeded my expectations so far.
                        Read my Pacers blog:
                        8points9seconds.com

                        Follow my twitter:

                        @8pts9secs

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Tough schedule?

                          Just keeping this as the catch all for schedule specific talk/review.

                          After the win tonight
                          Home 7-2
                          Road 5-10

                          That projects to
                          Home 32-9
                          Road 14-27
                          46-36 overall, basically about where expected by many posters here. I think my guess was around 48-49.

                          Why can you believe those numbers? Well 4 of the road losses were 2nd nights of back to backs. 8 of the 17 road games on the 2nd night of back to backs have already been played (4-4 in those so far). 2 of the 6 total road and road back to backs have already been played.

                          The longest road trip of the year is over. The Pacers only go across the Mississippi for 4 games straight from now on. They also have a 2 game set with SA/Houston and another with DAL/OKC.

                          The last 2 road losses featured no JO, the Chicago game obviously featured 3 starters MIA.

                          At home the Pacers have lost to NJ and OKC. Both were in the first 10 games of the season and before Foster moved to the starting position, even before Jackson was tried coming off the bench.

                          OKC featured Al in his 2 game slump to start the year, 1-9, and Saras in his early slump as well, 1-8. NJ was a 1 point game with 2:45 left and a 3 point game with less than 2 to play. It also feature Daniels finishing the game (good night for him, terrible shooting from Jack that night) and only 7 Pacers playing more than 7 minutes, with Saras only seeing 3...just to show how much things have changed since then.

                          Teams the Pacers have beaten at home so far - Orlando (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, MIL, PHI, POR...so 4 of the 7 wins have been against the top 3 teams in the East. Pacers have a 5 game home winning streak going.

                          In FEB the Pacers play NINE of 11 games at home. NINE. This includes 6 straight at home with the first 4 being teams coming from Denver or farther west.

                          In March there are a lot of road games, but in the Pacers favor is a 3 game homestand near the end of the month with a day in between each of the games, and these games are MIA, CHI, and CLE which means that the Pacers get a bump from their schedule in what could be some crucial playoff race games.


                          We have a chance to get another indicator when Utah comes to town on SUN. This will mean the Pacers will have played ALL their home games against the #1 East and #1 West teams for the year (as of the current standings). If they can win this game (and of course the NY game) then the case for a 50 win season only gets stronger.

                          The Pacers have 12 home games against the top 9 NBA teams (currently). After Utah they will have played 5 of those already. That only leaves 7 of those to go with 26 against teams playing roughly .500 or worse ball.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Tough schedule?

                            Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post

                            After the win tonight
                            Home 7-2
                            Road 5-10

                            That projects to
                            Home 32-9
                            Road 14-27
                            46-36 overall, basically about where expected by many posters here. I think my guess was around 48-49.
                            Taking care of home court. That's exactly what we needed to do to weather the early-season storm of all these roadies. Great work defending Conseco.

                            February should be great. 9 of 11 at home plus the All Star break to rest and heal.

                            Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.
                            Read my Pacers blog:
                            8points9seconds.com

                            Follow my twitter:

                            @8pts9secs

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tough schedule?

                              Originally posted by JayRedd View Post
                              Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.
                              [Matt Foley]Jay, I'd wish you could shut your big YAPPER![/Matt Foley]


                              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Foley (for non-SNL fans)

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