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Tough schedule?

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  • #16
    Re: Tough schedule?

    Originally posted by JayRedd View Post
    Taking care of home court. That's exactly what we needed to do to weather the early-season storm of all these roadies. Great work defending Conseco.

    February should be great. 9 of 11 at home plus the All Star break to rest and heal.

    Let's just hope our boys don't do anything crazy in Las Vegas. Or, more realistically, lets just hope no one hears about the crazy things our our boys do in Las Vegas.
    Moving the AS game to Las Vegas was either the greatest idea in NBA history or the worst...I'm not quite sure yet.

    I know for a fact that the players would prefer it over Salt Lake City or, gulp, Indianapolis...

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    • #17
      Re: Tough schedule?

      Actually, I think moving the All-Star Game to Las Vegas was brilliant. Can you imagine the showcase set up for that one.
      The best exercise of the human heart is reaching down and picking someone else up.

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      • #18
        Re: Tough schedule?

        good teams win 50% of road games and dominate at home. If we win 50% of the reamaining road games, I'll start to believe. It's very conceivable that with the newness of this incarnation of this team that they could improve. It's the obvious, be healthy, Tinsley seems to be dead set on playing, and is probably the most important player IF he stays healthy. I wasn't sure where to put this, but I think that his defense is getting better or at least does in spurts. He is the key. Now back to the toughness of the schedule, its very interesting to me back when the Pacers were one of the best I would look at the schedule and think, wow, I don't see us losing any of these coming games, now its like wow, I don't know how we could win some of these games. The nex 2 months will be real interesting to see if we get the Pacers who played Detroit or the ones that played Cle the 2nd time.

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        • #19
          Re: Tough schedule?

          Another home/road projection update, plus taking a look at the next few weeks.

          Home 9-5
          Road 9-11

          Projects to
          Home 26-15
          Road 18-23
          Total 44-38

          Down a total of 2 wins in the projection from 3 weeks ago. Of course the Minny and Charlotte home losses had a major impact on that, and when you consider just how far up Indy was in that Minny game you can see where the JO frustration comes in. Let's say they hold both the Minny and Dallas wins...

          10-4 -> 29-12
          10-10 -> 20-21 or 21-20
          49 or 50 win projection instead, including what would have been a road win in Dallas plus a road win in Detroit.


          Here's the good news, the Pacers only have 8 more West road games to go, and of those on PHX, Utah and San Antonio look really tough. Clips, Kings, Minny, Houston (w/out Yao) and Griz are all winnable matchups.


          Now for the upcoming look. I just joked about the win 2 lose repeat cycle they've got going, but game 3 this time would be @Boston if they win at home vs Atlanta.

          If they could get those 2 wins and establish their first 3 game streak then it would carry into a tough home game vs Dallas. But after that they get 2 of their easier road games - NJ and the faltering MIA (who they had luck against even when they were strong).

          After that it really eases up with 4 home games and only CHI a real threat, then the @DET (obviously tough), and then back at home for Boston to end the month. 8-3 or 7-4 to finish the month is not unrealistic to expect from the talent, even given some of the ups and downs.

          And that leads right into the super soft FEB with only 2 road games (MEM, TOR) compared to 9 home games, most of which are mediocre West teams traveling East (only PHX is a top tier opponent in all of FEB). 9-2, 8-3 at the least should be the expectation for this current roster.

          Just winning the reasonable games in the next 2 months would get them out to around 34-22. No major upsets required.


          Now's the time to make the put up or shut up run. The time to gel is over, the time to shake off the rust, get to know each other, find rotations, etc is over. The complaints about road trips are over.

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          • #20
            Re: Tough schedule?

            From 2 months ago by me, just for whatever perspective...

            So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.
            They went 16-14. So no surprise that I feel pretty good about it then.

            and
            If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.
            Add the 1-1 already and you have me currently expecting a 9-4 or 8-5 JAN, which I guess means that I expect to be pumped about their chances.

            Again, it seems like not every fan on PD has been consistant/fair with their expectations of the team. Right now they are still on track to be a 5th-6th seed and playing better at the end of the season than the beginning.

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            • #21
              Re: Tough schedule?

              This season, so far, is exceeding my expectations. My hope for at least 7-13 levelling out to .500 by the ASB looks good so far. To be tacked onto that, I would like to find a "final" rotation by the 54-55 game mark. (including anyone brought in via trade)

              I'd like to finish on an upswing, find rhythm, and hopefully get to around 48 wins. I like our potential to get out of the first round, and maybe just be the team no one wants to play.

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              • #22
                Re: Tough schedule?

                Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                Okay, when the schedule first came out my reaction (maybe only at Star, not sure about at PD) was that the final month or so was going to be brutal, but that the Pacers had a soft start to the season.

                Then people talked about all the road vs home games and the idea of it being a tough start picked up for me I guess. But more than that I think I wrapped the idea of the Pacers just having a rough early season due to chemistry/roster issues (as in trying to figure it all out and learning to play together) into the idea that the matchups were tough.


                So while I will still agree that coming out the first 30 games at 15-15 would make me feel pretty good about it, I can't agree (even if I said it before) that the early schedule is tough.

                One playoff team from last year so far and they blasted the Pacers. The team has been handed a patty-cake start which is just what they needed to help get them through the learning phase.

                I'll give you that perhaps NO/OKC is the real deal which makes that loss look more acceptable, but are any of the wins games that a fan would have thought was a reasonable loss for a GOOD team? Not IMO.

                The 2 road games at Chicago, now there is a marker to go by. Cleveland and NJ are decent matchups, though both at home and NJ especially didn't look threatening last year.

                The first West trip is even the lighter version - borderline teams like GS, LAL and Denver are the tough games. No PHX or DAL (even with the slow starts let's be realistic), no SA, no LAC, no Utah.

                In December they have about 10-11 wins expected at least if they are of the CLE, CHI, DET, MIA caliber squad.

                Contrast the first 2 months with stuff like JAN which features on the road - DAL, NO/OKC, NJ, MIA and DET. And at home - DAL, CHI, MIA. You have 5 "easy" games thrown into that mix. It's downright brutal compared to this month's lineup.

                March is just as painful with road games - PHX, LAC, Sacto, Utah, CLE, HOU, SA, and NJ. Home games - WSH, MIA, CHI, CLE. You've only got 4 "easy" games to go with those 12 tough ones, and that's with games at Minny and at ORL being 2 of the "rest stops". And that 4 game West trip is 2 pairs of BACK TO BACKS even, which really hurts them with that level of travel. The month features 6 back to backs in total.

                April ends up being an easy month because it "only" features home games vs SA, DET, NJ and WSH and 1 road game at MIA. A month that is only 50-50 in terms of "tough" vs "easy" games with several of the tough ones at home.



                The point? I like the early wins and had my concerns about the team finding their way early, but the hard truth is that even if they are a solid 4-8th seed team they could hit the skids hard in the 2nd half of the season. Their schedule is heavily back loaded with tough games.

                Fans might want to be prepared and to keep things in perspective. If this team is going 8-4 in JAN or March we'll have a real reason to be pumped up about their chances.


                PS - naturally it could end up different if someone like PHX really is in the toilet. There could be some surprisingly good or bad teams as always. I just wouldn't count on it since the NBA typically doesn't shock fans. Bad teams become competitive (or vice versa) but they don't win it all out of nowhere.
                Those are good points about the upcoming schedule. However, I think it's offset somewhat by the fact that the Pacers have played more road games (20) than any other team. Also, I believe that they have had 10 back to backs which is probably close to the most.

                The quality of the teams in the second half go up but we have 27 of the last 48 at home. Hopefully, that will even out the higher level of competition.

                I still look for 48-50 wins. I'll probably catch hell for predicting this number, but the talent is there if RC can establish a consistent rotation pattern.
                .

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                • #23
                  Re: Tough schedule?

                  Roferr, you'll note that I've already switched to the "road vs home" view since that initital post. See my December 3rd post where Jay had me convinced.

                  I just bump this thread as the "schedule talk" thread, not really promoting the first post as my current view on it.

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                  • #24
                    Re: Tough schedule?

                    Alright, boys and girls, here comes the good stretch.

                    This is our remaining schedule until All Star Weekend.

                    New Jersey is starting to play better, and Miami does have Dwyane back, but if you just look at team records, the only team we have to face on the road with a winning percentage over .441 (as of today) is Detroit. And given that it's A) Detroit and B) a Sunday night ESPN game, we should be at least putting up 110% effort in the Palace.

                    The home schedule is by no means cupcake (Dallas, Chicago, Miami, LAL, Denver, Clips), but we do get 12 of our next 17 in Conseco.

                    We currently stand at 19-16. And with this stretch of schedule, we should be able to go at least 10-7 in those next 17.

                    That would leave us at 29-23 going into the break. To me, a record like that would make the first half a success, and set us up well for a late-season push.


                    January

                    Jan 10 at Boston


                    Jan 12 vs Dallas


                    Jan 15 at New Jersey


                    Jan 18 at Miami


                    Jan 20 vs New York


                    Jan 22 vs Chicago


                    Jan 24 vs Miami


                    Jan 27 vs Toronto


                    Jan 28 at Detroit


                    Jan 30 vs Boston



                    February

                    Feb 2 vs LA Lakers


                    Feb 3 at Memphis


                    Feb 5 vs Golden State


                    Feb 7 vs Seattle


                    Feb 9 vs Denver


                    Feb 11 vs LA Clippers


                    Feb 14 vs Memphis


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                    • #25
                      Re: Tough schedule?

                      Here's one really noticeable aspect. A day rest before Dallas at home on a FRI night (ie, big crowd). Unfortunately Dallas also gets a day rest and the travel up from Dallas is just as short as coming back from Boston. At least we have some cold weather to welcome them.

                      Still, this is a winnable game and doing so would have a buch of effects. One it would just make the statement of their ability level. Two they would have a 4 win streak for the first time this year. Three they would be 5 over .500 for the first time this year.

                      And best of all is that while they do go to NJ and MIA right after that, they have TWO DAYS OFF before each game, and then get another day off before facing NY at home. So from a schedule viewpoint this is one of the friendliest stretches you'll find. A Dallas win could easily turn into a 7 game win streak.


                      Let's hope they take advantage because a really rough 4 set of West road games is looming just past that, or 6 of 7 on the road total if you add the 3 games after it. Make a big move now in order to handle the lumps they'll take a bit later.

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                      • #26
                        Re: Tough schedule?

                        Indeed this should be a little easier stretch of games coming up. I am anxious to see if we can take advantage.

                        Consider even now only one team the Sixers, have played less home games(12) than Indiana has which is at (15).

                        Only 5 of Chicago's wins have come on the road as they are a dreadful 5 and 12 on the road with 4 more home games played than the Pacers.

                        Clevleand who leads the conference has only won 7 of it's 22 games on the road, and is 7-9 over all away from home. Even Washington has only won 6 of it's 20 games on the road this year. (6-11 overall).

                        Compare that to Indiana who has won half of it's 20 games on the road. These next few weeks will really tell us alot about this club and
                        The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here

                        Why Not Us ?

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                        • #27
                          Re: Tough schedule?

                          If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

                          This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.
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                          • #28
                            Re: Tough schedule?

                            Originally posted by Frank Slade View Post
                            The expression make hay while the sun shines would apply here
                            I like that. Definitely applies.


                            Flava - I agree, great chance to win back fans. Of course if they don't make hay now then....

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                            • #29
                              Re: Tough schedule?

                              Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                              Of course if they don't make hay now then....
                              We're sitting in a big pile of cow fertilizer
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                              • #30
                                Re: Tough schedule?

                                Originally posted by FlavaDave View Post
                                If we can beat Dallas, we will be on a 4 game win streak, which is a great soundbite for TV. Then, we play NJ, MIA, and NY which are three very winable games against sub-.500 teams.

                                This is a golden opportunity to win 7 in a row and really perk the ears of the "lost" fanbase.

                                yes but playing Mia twice in the next few weeks now that wade is back and Shaq has started to practice... both could have waited a couple weeks... makes those games harder then they look
                                You didn't think it was gonna be that easy, did you? ..... You know, for a second there, yeah, I kinda did.....
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