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Tough schedule?

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  • #46
    Re: Tough schedule?

    Buck, here's how I'm looking at it

    Losses
    Feb 27 - PHOENIX
    Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
    Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
    Mar 7 - @ Utah
    Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
    Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
    Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
    Mar 20 - @ Houston
    Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
    Mar 25 - CHICAGO
    Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
    Mar 28 - @ New Jersey

    Wins
    Mar 3 - @ LAC
    Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA
    Mar 17 - ATLANTA
    Mar 23 - MIAMI
    Mar 30 - @ Orlando


    Okay, CHI and CLE are here and the Pacers have beat them, but it seems to me that both are on the upswing while the Pacers are looking worse. Maybe you win one of those, but maybe you lose the MIA game if they have Shaq and aren't hurt without Wade as much as expected.

    NJ has played their way into the playoffs and have already worked the Pacers over in NJ.

    Loss to SAC is iffy, but so is the win @LAC

    That's where my 5-12 came from.


    And yet I was doing a little looking at Pacers tix anyway. I honestly don't give a F that they are in trouble and could be in bad shape in a month. I didn't hate Jack, I don't hate Dun, and I don't hate that it's not going as well as I'd hoped.

    I want them to stay positive, so I hold myself to the same expectations. Just play the game in front of you the best you can and will see how it goes.

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: Tough schedule?

      Well I had them down as losing all but 1 of the 2 games vs SAC and LAC, so not that shocked at this point. Not sure why this caught some people off-guard.

      So far the following is still on-target
      I'll guess 5-12 to be optimistic. That would put them at 34-38.

      Now the Knicks are 7 under, but they also have a definitely easier schedule coming up. Not cake, but enough nice games mixed in to go .500 or better. So they could be pushing Indy down the stretch.

      The Nets are only 3 under and about to pass the Pacers through this stretch.

      Miami is tough to know. They lose Wade but then beat CLE without him. They have an interesting homestand of 6 games against a bunch of strong teams, that could play big on where the Pacers stand in 3 weeks.

      ORL is in free fall and just as bad off as Indy. They look like benficiaries of an easier front-end schedule to me, the opposite of TOR. They have the Spurs win at home, but they just have so many more tough games and a lot of those on the road. I have to count them out right now.
      MIA now in front of Indy.

      NJ and NY are on the Pacers heels. Pacers could go 2-3 in their next 5. That would put them at 31-34.

      Next 5 for MIA, NY and NJ (I'm considering ORL officially done right now):

      MIA (31-29) coming off home wins over DET and CHI btw
      MIN, WSH, UTH, @NJ, SAC - I'd say 3-2 at least, putting more distance on the Pacers.

      NY (28-34)
      @WSH, @TOR, OKC, TOR, DAL - so at best 2-3 themselves and still trailing Indy

      NJ (28-33)
      @HOU, @SA, @MEM, @OKC, MIA - I think 1-4 with OKC being a 2nd night of a back to back road trip. Pacers look to be safe from NJ for the time being.


      Looking ahead I think 39 wins might be enough to stay in the playoffs after all.

      NY is 11-10 since the midpoint, carry that out and they finish at 38 wins, maybe 39. NJ is actually 8-12 since the 41 game point and are looking at 36-37 wins projected, and their 12 road game schedule full of playoff teams does nothing to dispel that expectation.

      So I guess Indy might be safe after all baring a mega-tank. Here are the 10 easiest games left for them (which would put them at 39 wins and probably in the playoffs):

      BOS
      ATL
      PHI (but without JO?)
      NJ

      @PHI
      @MIL
      @ATL
      @NJ
      @ORL
      @CHA

      Here's the one troublesome thing. Add in the @Minny game and that gives you ALL the reamaining games vs teams under .500, home or road). So 39 wins is reasonable, but not certain.

      It could still come down to the 2 games vs NJ. Might put NJ at 38 wins and leave Indy at 37, something like that.


      BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

      As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: Tough schedule?

        I glanced at the schedule for March through April...I think if the teams keeps playing at this level we could go on a 21 game losing streak. But that may be me dreaming of the draft again.
        I think KP is a Captain Planet fan. He believes that the collective will of five decent starters can outweigh the power of top-level talent. Too bad Herb won't cut the check for their Planeteer rings.

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: Tough schedule?

          As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.
          Still about the same 10 days later.

          Another set of very tough opponents on deck. @HOU looks rough and the next night they are in SA for what seems to be certain disaster. But after that they only play one more road game vs a winning team (MIA).

          In the meantime they come home for 3 games with a day of rest between each one. While the opponents are tough, it could be a chance to steal an unexpected win. Unfortunately each of those teams is coming in with their own day of rest, and in fact Chicago has several days off between a game in Chi-town and coming down to Indy.

          Another disgusting break against Indy, they head out of this 3 game homestand to visit New Jersey on a 2nd night of a back to back. Meanwhile the Nets have 3 days off waiting on the Pacers' visit. Hardly seems fair.


          They need to rip up FEB so bad it hurts. They are either going to blow us away with impressive wins in Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland and/or Houston, or they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th (SA and DET come to Indy just for good measure to start April).

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: Tough schedule?

            Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
            BTW, 38-44 is a .463 win PCT. There are 15 teams below that WIN PCT right now, including NJ. Drop the Pacers to 36 wins (.439) and you have 8 teams below that level. That's the difference between losing just a few more games.

            As I worried about before, the Pacers remain on track to fall close to the area between playoffs and top 10 draft pick. This final month still has a drastic range of possible outcomes and dead center of all of those is the worst one possible, nothing and nothing.
            I seriously doubt this team is going to increase its winning percentage. Beating the Hawks at Conseco without Joe Johnson and on the heels of an 11 game losing streak is fools gold. It was about time.

            The next 5 teams are legit championship contenders fighting for playoff position. This is not November. If we win 1 of those with JO and Quis lame we will be fortunate.

            Then we face Jersey at their house which just got Richard Jefferson back. Then Orlando at Orlando. Orlando will see us an opportunity for sure. We might pick up another win.

            Then we have Detroit and San Antonio. Two more losses. Then the schedule lightens up, but we play 5 out of 8 on the road...with 3 back to backs. These teams will try to play spoiler and will not lay down. I say we win 3 or 4 of those.

            OK, at most 6 more wins. That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: Tough schedule?

              Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
              I seriously doubt this team is going to increase its winning percentage. Beating the Hawks at Conseco without Joe Johnson and on the heels of an 11 game losing streak is fools gold. It was about time.

              The next 5 teams are legit championship contenders fighting for playoff position. This is not November. If we win 1 of those with JO and Quis lame we will be fortunate.

              Then we face Jersey at their house which just got Richard Jefferson back. Then Orlando at Orlando. Orlando will see us an opportunity for sure. We might pick up another win.

              Then we have Detroit and San Antonio. Two more losses. Then the schedule lightens up, but we play 5 out of 8 on the road...with 3 back to backs. These teams will try to play spoiler and will not lay down. I say we win 3 or 4 of those.

              OK, at most 6 more wins. That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.
              Check the date on the post you quoted. That was from a couple of weeks ago.

              Even I said and then repeated in my most recent post to bump the ongoing thread that if they didn't pull off some big wins vs teams like PHX or SA that
              Originally posted by me
              they are going to watch their record plummet from March 1 to April 6th
              Originally posted by BnG
              That makes it 36 wins. A very good shot at a top 10 pick.
              More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Tough schedule?

                Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).
                I agree completely. We should have started the tank earlier. Very unlikely we will keep the pick or make the playoffs and in the event we do make the playofffs it will look bad.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: Tough schedule?

                  Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                  Check the date on the post you quoted. That was from a couple of weeks ago.

                  Even I said and then repeated in my most recent post to bump the ongoing thread that if they didn't pull off some big wins vs teams like PHX or SA that



                  More than 10 teams are going to end up with 46 losses. As I also repeated in my most recent post, this team is aimed squarely at no playoffs/no pick area. You keep hoping for a tank but the fact is that the playoffs are even more in range than a top 10 pick (not that the playoff situation looks good).
                  I've always heard a bunch of coaches I respect say that the best thing to look at is losses. You can't make those up.

                  So here's the bottom 20 of the league based on current number of losses:

                  1. Grizz - 50
                  2. Celtics - 47
                  3. Bobcats - 43
                  4. Bucks - 41
                  5. Hawks - 41
                  6. Sixers - 41
                  7. Blazers - 40
                  8. Sonics - 40
                  9. Kings - 38
                  10. TWolves - 37
                  11. Hornets - 37
                  12. Magic - 37
                  13. Clippers - 36
                  14. Knicks - 36
                  15. Nets - 36
                  16. Warriors - 36
                  17. Pacers - 35
                  18. Lakers - 32
                  19. Nuggets - 31
                  20. Raptors - 31

                  (no one else has more than 30)

                  I haven't checked all their schedules, but I just can't see us "making up" five losses to teams as bad as the Blazers and Sonics.

                  So that would mean, "at best" we could only hope to sneak in at 9th or 10th in order to keep the pick. It's definitely possible, but with all the other terrible teams in between, there are 9 squads "fighting" for those last two Top 10 slots, with us currently the furthest away.

                  We're bad, but I don't think we're that bad.

                  If anything, we should all be hoping for a 7 Seed to draw a pretty flawed Cavs squad in the 1st Round. This might actually be one year where I'd actually consider our signature 2nd Round KO a moral victory.
                  Read my Pacers blog:
                  8points9seconds.com

                  Follow my twitter:

                  @8pts9secs

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: Tough schedule?

                    Keep the Faith, JayRedd.

                    “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” - Winston Churchill

                    “If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning.” - Catherine Aird

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Tough schedule?

                      Originally posted by JayRedd View Post
                      I've always heard a bunch of coaches I respect say that the best thing to look at is losses. You can't make those up.

                      So here's the bottom 20 of the league based on current number of losses:

                      1. Grizz - 50
                      2. Celtics - 47
                      3. Bobcats - 43
                      4. Bucks - 41
                      5. Hawks - 41
                      6. Sixers - 41
                      7. Blazers - 40
                      8. Sonics - 40
                      9. Kings - 38
                      10. TWolves - 37
                      11. Hornets - 37
                      12. Magic - 37
                      13. Clippers - 36
                      14. Knicks - 36
                      15. Nets - 36
                      16. Warriors - 36
                      17. Pacers - 35
                      18. Lakers - 32
                      19. Nuggets - 31
                      20. Raptors - 31

                      (no one else has more than 30)

                      I haven't checked all their schedules, but I just can't see us "making up" five losses to teams as bad as the Blazers and Sonics.

                      So that would mean, "at best" we could only hope to sneak in at 9th or 10th in order to keep the pick. It's definitely possible, but with all the other terrible teams in between, there are 9 squads "fighting" for those last two Top 10 slots, with us currently the furthest away.

                      We're bad, but I don't think we're that bad.

                      If anything, we should all be hoping for a 7 Seed to draw a pretty flawed Cavs squad in the 1st Round. This might actually be one year where I'd actually consider our signature 2nd Round KO a moral victory.
                      Here are the teams we are competing with:

                      9. Kings - 38 0-2 against them (most of the wins came early here)
                      10. TWolves - 37 0-2
                      11. Hornets - 37 1-1
                      12. Magic - 37 2-1
                      13. Clippers - 36 1-1
                      14. Knicks - 36 2-1
                      15. Nets - 36 0-2
                      16. Warriors - 36 1-1

                      There is only a 3 game "deficit", not 5, that we have to make up...maybe 2 if we lose to the Magic. The odds are very high that a number 10 pick would not get bumped....so I am growing less concerned about a higher pick. I would also consider some dogs like Philly might rise up....where the higher teams are less likely to gap down. Our biggest problems could turn out to be MN and Orlando.

                      Get prepared for this gap to close by the end of this month.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Tough schedule?

                        Originally posted by speakout4 View Post
                        I agree completely. We should have started the tank earlier. Very unlikely we will keep the pick or make the playoffs and in the event we do make the playofffs it will look bad.
                        I'm still in the "you never know till you try" mode.

                        Get in their, prove something to yourself and the fanbase, and at the very least give it a run similar to last year. Then give Atlanta a mid-first pick and keep your potentially higher/better pick in the next 2-3 years.

                        I sure as heck would rather ATL took a 16th pick this year than a #1 in 3 years. That is what you are toying with when you say "tank now".

                        BTW, look closely at your list BnG. The Pacers only need to TIE Orlando and NY to lose the 10th pick. All of the other teams can win out (not technically possible since they play each other) and the Pacers would lose the pick and miss the playoffs. The point is that the Pacers are up against MANY other teams, not just 1 or 2. Some of those teams have tough roads ahead and are slumping themselves.

                        Looking ahead I think 39 wins might be enough to stay in the playoffs after all.
                        Looking more like 36-37 wins will do the trick now.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Tough schedule?

                          Tonight is an important night.

                          Orlando or NJ is going to win.
                          Minnesota plays lowly Seattle.
                          Philly plays lowly Charlotte.
                          We play the Heat.

                          On paper it should be a good night.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Tough schedule?

                            We are getting near the end of this nasty stretch finally, just a few more really tough spots and then it goes back to normal.

                            Looking back at my own expectations.
                            Originally posted by me
                            Losses
                            Feb 27 - PHOENIX
                            Mar 2 - @ Phoenix
                            Mar 6 - @ Sacramento
                            Mar 7 - @ Utah
                            Mar 11 - @ Cleveland
                            Mar 13 - @ Minnesota
                            Mar 14 - WASHINGTON
                            Mar 20 - @ Houston
                            Mar 21 - @ San Antonio
                            Mar 25 - CHICAGO
                            Mar 27 - CLEVELAND
                            Mar 28 - @ New Jersey

                            Wins
                            Mar 3 - @ LAC
                            Mar 10 - PHILADELPHIA

                            Mar 17 - ATLANTA
                            Mar 23 - MIAMI
                            Mar 30 - @ Orlando
                            A little worse than expected, but the Chicago, Minny, Sacto and Philly games were all winnable, the CLE and NJ games remain winnable as well. I guess this is why I'm not too freaked out. They took their hit, seem to have recovered and really haven't done much worse lately than I assumed they would.

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