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Thread: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

  1. #701
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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    I'm supporting Rasky on this one. First theory that sounds reasonably plausible. I don't think the Wolves use an all-encompassing theory, but this sounds like the best "hitlist" I have seen for a long while.

    I'm voting Hoop aswell.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    alright I managed to get online to go over what has happened and add my 2 cents...

    *whooo!* we got a wolfie! about damn time! Figures only a wolf would go after a human like myself...
    I'm sorry to see TWscholl gone...did he mention any other gut feelings as to who might've been a wolf?

    I'm honestly tired of Rasko's blabbering...he's placed blame on just about everyone in this game....I say it's time we chop his fingers off or something...he's just creating one hit-list after another...and now, he's accusing me of being a wolf? just cause I wasn't around to defend myself! for shame Rasko...for shame!

    I've been suspicious of Hoop since the begining as he's hardly around...he might be the silent wolf....hence I vote to hang Hoop. I pray that we'll see him shed some fur once he is lynched!

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    bellisimo matches my original theory... jumped on the voting early to hang pollardfreak.
    it's the first time i'm playing this game...hence I got a bit too trigger happy in hopes of lynching a wolf in the first round.
    if that makes me a wolf...that would also mean that mourning is also a wolf....

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    Obviously, I'm human, and so is Shade. If Shade isn't, he's just a brilliant, brilliant wolf. Thus we have
    what makes it so obvious that you're a human?
    all you do is try to create hitlists to get the people going in a voting frenzy for someone in your list...
    and I have to applaud you for pulling it off so well.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Fool View Post
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    Just look at your PM's or any of the haf a dozen posts I've restated that PM in. I advised him not to share anything in private that he wouldn't share in public because none of us could be sure who was who then no matter what we thought about anyone (that's still sound advice imo). Then when I was asked, I said I was suspicious of you (Rasko), Pig Nash, and Mourning. I also gave reasons for why I was suspicious of each.

    I was and still am suspicious of Rasko because he keeps adopting these "theories" that point the finger at different people each time, then when they prove incorrect, he doesn't think to be critical of his overall process, (creating an all-encompassing theorie trying to explain exactly who every player is) he simply changes his initial premise so that his new theory points at different people.

    I was suspicious of Mourning because it looked to me like he started the game out trying not to get voted for and then when his name came up on a couple of wolf lists he changed his style and got more confrontational. That's still true but he was also happy to vote for Indy0731 as mayor who I've said more than once (and well before he became our only successfull wolf hunter) struck me as being human.

    I was also suspicious of Pig Nash because of his abrupt turn around on Since86. Since86 proposed an idea of who he thought were wolves, Nash challenged it, Since86 fired back that maybe Nash was a wolf for challenging it, and Nash immediately threw his support behind Since86.

    It looks like one of those 3 suspicions was correct and nothing has really happened to make me more suspicious of someon else. Since Mourning has done something recently that appears less wolf-ish (voting to put a human in as mayor) I'll vote for Rasko.
    Everything you say is correct.

    Your vote however is not correct (in the way that you're voting for a human).

    If I had to say whether you are human or not without considering the voting behaviour, I'd say you're human. But IMO it's very dangerous to judge on the basis of feeling. I'd only do that afterwards in order to check on my results.

    Looking at PN's and the remaining wolf candidates' voting behaviour, you appear to be a wolf.

    Looking at your posting style and the facts you mention above, I never would've thought, so I'd be inclined to first hang Hoop and Ken, then reconsider my theory again.

    You're critical of everyone and everything, especially of the more vocal ones and inhabitants of the Low Countries, but you've never been criticized once yourself. Furthermore, now that I changed my vote, you still haven't received a single vote yet. And just because I reconsidered my vote, tried to back it up with a theory, and thus became more vocal after I'd been quiet for a while, you voted for me.

    The fact that you thought both Mourning and I could be wolves, even after calling out each other multiple times for being a wolf, never sat right with me. I guess it is a wolf strategy to try and make everyone as indecisive as bellisimo by questioning every principle someone else assumes (in this case, that two wolves would never continuously accuse each other of being a wolf).

    It's also a wolf strategy to be indecisive, like bellisimo. Or to be extremely quiet, like Hoop. Or to be SycamoreKen, like SycamoreKen. Or to be quiet and chime in an accusation every once in a while, like Pig Nash.

    It's very well possible that you're just human. If you're not, you're a brilliant wolf.


    I also voted indy0731 by the way. And my vote still mattered at that point.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    what makes it so obvious that you're a human?
    all you do is try to create hitlists to get the people going in a voting frenzy for someone in your list...
    and I have to applaud you for pulling it off so well.
    I thought I was blabbering?

    I'm not trying to create hit lists, I ám creating hit lists.

    I'm always trying to back those up in a logical way. I always thought you were human, but one fact and a very likely assumption seem to 'prove' me wrong.

    I promise this will be the last list (or maybe just one more... ). If I'm wrong again, you might as well hang me to get rid of a human puppet of the wolves.

    Seriously, if I were a wolf, I wouldn't be motivated enough to come up with another theory over and over again.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    I guess it is a wolf strategy to try and make everyone as indecisive as bellisimo by questioning every principle someone else assumes (in this case, that two wolves would never continuously accuse each other of being a wolf).

    It's also a wolf strategy to be indecisive, like bellisimo. Or to be extremely quiet, like Hoop. Or to be SycamoreKen, like SycamoreKen. Or to be quiet and chime in an accusation every once in a while, like Pig Nash.
    alright...I'm confused there...
    at first you're saying that the wolves are making me indecisive about what to do....and then you're saying that I'm a wolf for being indecisive?
    not sure if I understood you correctly.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    I'm always trying to back those up in a logical way. I always thought you were human, but one fact and a very likely assumption seem to 'prove' me wrong.
    and what might that be?
    Are you talking about the time I voted for Anthem?
    maybe you should look at the reason why I voted for him...
    it was either him or me at the time...if I didn't vote for him, I might've gotten hanged all thanks for Pig Nash's false accusation!

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    alright...I'm confused there...
    at first you're saying that the wolves are making me indecisive about what to do....and then you're saying that I'm a wolf for being indecisive?
    not sure if I understood you correctly.
    There you do it again!

    My point is that you have been rather indecisive during the whole game. It was the way you played the game. The rationale then is that Fool tried, by being critical of everything and everyone, to make other humans as indecisive as you. If every vote is just a shot in the dark, chances are slim that we hang a wolf.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    There you do it again!

    My point is that you have been rather indecisive during the whole game. It was the way you played the game. The rationale then is that Fool tried, by being critical of everything and everyone, to make other humans as indecisive as you. If every vote is just a shot in the dark, chances are slim that we hang a wolf.
    holy....
    I'm a n00b to this "game"...so thats why I've been so indecisive...cause everything you do gets nitpicked...hence I'm trying to figure out the way this game works so that instead of just taking a shot in the dark or creating one hit list after another...I could vote for someone that makes sense. honestly I didn't really generate a persona for this game...hell I didn't even know that I should've created a persona...I'm just being me...
    yes...even in real life Im this indecisive

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    and what might that be?
    Are you talking about the time I voted for Anthem?
    maybe you should look at the reason why I voted for him...
    it was either him or me at the time...if I didn't vote for him, I might've gotten hanged all thanks for Pig Nash's false accusation!
    It's not that one vote. It's the process of elimination, based on PN's and the five possible wolves' voting behaviour. Re-read

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/forums/s...&postcount=690

    and

    http://www.pacersdigest.com/forums/s...&postcount=691

    If you're human, then just tell me where my rationale breaks down.

    (You're just going to have to accept that Shade and I are human. If I'm human, and I know I am, then Shade is definitely human as well.)

    Again, of the four in my current hit list, I'm most sure about Hoop and Ken. But you and Fool just remained in the list, while others whom I suspected more before, like Mourning, were eliminated. Did I righteously eliminate them? I think so. But if I didn't, please tell me.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    holy....
    I'm a n00b to this "game"...so thats why I've been so indecisive...cause everything you do gets nitpicked...hence I'm trying to figure out the way this game works so that instead of just taking a shot in the dark or creating one hit list after another...I could vote for someone that makes sense. honestly I didn't really generate a persona for this game...hell I didn't even know that I should've created a persona...I'm just being me...
    yes...even in real life Im this indecisive
    Hey, so am I. Don't worry about it.

    Apparently in this game I'm more decisive.

    And I'm new as well. For long I thought none of the new guys would get a special role, because, for instance, I didn't. Along with other reasons that was one of the reasons why I thought you were human. But I guess it is a dangerous assumption.

    The assumption that I used to create my latest theory seems a lot more likely.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    http://www.pacersdigest.com/forums/s...&postcount=690

    If you're human, then just tell me where my rationale breaks down.

    this is where your rationale breaks down...

    at first this is what you're mentioning...
    I however do think it's a fair assumption that he would never initiate a vote, or vote for a fellow wolf on a crucial moment. Let's analyze his voting and accusing behaviour.
    Then Pig Nash votes for you when its clear that PollardFreek would be the one to get hanged with the majority of the votes...

    doesn't that conflict with each other already?

    And then going back to your assumption of a crucial moment or initiating a vote...Pig Nash initiates by voting for me when only 4 people had casted their votes...

    those two points alone throw your whole assumption of me being a wolf out the window.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    this is where your rationale breaks down...

    at first this is what you're mentioning...


    Then Pig Nash votes for you when its clear that PollardFreek would be the one to get hanged with the majority of the votes...

    doesn't that conflict with each other already?

    And then going back to your assumption of a crucial moment or initiating a vote...Pig Nash initiates by voting for me when only 4 people had casted their votes...

    those two points alone throw your whole assumption of me being a wolf out the window.
    No.

    First of all, I said

    1. Rasko: it was the second vote for me and at this point pollard already had 7 votes. There was no risk at all in this vote, so this doesn't prove anything.
    In my theory I'm assuming that I'm human, because I know that I'm human. I'm not trying to prove it anymore, because I know there will be many to deny that again.

    Second of all, I also said

    2. Bellisimo: here he initiates the vote for belli, immediately followed by Tyrion. At that point, there were two people with two votes, Anthem and Mourning. Seems a bit risky to start voting for one of his fellow wolves. He could've easily voted for Anthem or Mourning, if they're human.
    and

    5. SycamoreKen: I don't really know what to think about this vote. Mourning already had 2, Anthem had 2 or 3. I guess this situation is very similar to the one where he voted bellisimo. Except with belli he was seconded by Tyrion. Still seems risky, but no certainties here.
    The cases where Pig Nash voted Soup and Mourning were the only ones were he took a big risk (if Soup and Mourning would be wolves). In your and Ken's case, the risk was a lot lower. That's why Soup and Mourning were scratched off the list, and you weren't.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    No.

    First of all, I said

    In my theory I'm assuming that I'm human, because I know that I'm human. I'm not trying to prove it anymore, because I know there will be many to deny that again.

    Second of all, I also said

    and

    The cases where Pig Nash voted Soup and Mourning were the only ones were he took a big risk (if Soup and Mourning would be wolves). In yours and Ken's case, the risk was a lot lower. That's why Soup and Mourning were scratched off the list, and you weren't.
    In the first instance...you can say it doesn't prove anything to your "standards" but it emphasizes that a known wolf, could very well be voting for another fellow wolf when he knows that the vote he is giving out to...in this case this being you...will not get lynched...

    how is this ANY different than my scenario? where in my scenario, the risk was much higher!

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by bellisimo View Post
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    In the first instance...you can say it doesn't prove anything to your "standards" but it emphasizes that a known wolf, could very well be voting for another fellow wolf when he knows that the vote he is giving out to...in this case this being you...will not get lynched...

    how is this ANY different than my scenario? where in my scenario, the risk was much higher!
    Yes, with you the risk was higher. (but not too high; nobody had suspected you before and it looked like it was going to be a race between Anthem and Mourning anyway. PN's vote seemed rather random and thus it wasn't very likely someone was going to follow him. Surprisingly, Ty did.)

    The risk was zero when PN voted for me. That's why I'm saying that PN's vote for me doesn't prove anything. Neither does it emphasize anything, like you're implying. Based on that fact only, I could be human, or as much as likely, be a wolf.

    The only reason I scratched myself off the list is because I know I'm human.

    Again, if you're human, you have nothing to fear from me right now. I'm most sure about Hoop and Ken. A lot can happen along the way that forces me to change my opinion about you.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Raskolnikov View Post
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    Yes, with you the risk was higher. (but not too high; nobody had suspected you before and it looked like it was going to be a race between Anthem and Mourning anyway. PN's vote seemed rather random and thus it wasn't very likely someone was going to follow him. Surprisingly, Ty did.)

    The risk was zero when PN voted for me. That's why I'm saying that PN's vote for me doesn't prove anything. Neither does it emphasize anything, like you're implying. Based on that fact only, I could be human, or as much as likely, be a wolf.

    The only reason I scratched myself off the list is because I know I'm human.

    Again, if you're human, you have nothing to fear from me right now. I'm most sure about Hoop and Ken. A lot can happen along the way that forces me to change my opinion about you.

    its just that Im on vacation right now...hence I have limited access to the internet...last thing I want to happen is to come back to see you hang another innocent human like myself while I was away...
    that's all i'm tryin to prevent.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Now that I think of it, I'd like to remind Robertmto of our little bet.

    If at least 3 of the 5 people on this list

    SIG
    Anthem
    Rasko
    Shade
    Pig Nash

    are wolves, he wins and I have to put a picture of his liking in my sig. If at least 3 of those 5 are human, I win and he has to put "I've lost a bet to the mighty Raskolnikov. That's why I have to put this in my sig." in his sig.

    Thus far, Rob leads with one proven wolf (PN). According to my latest theory however, none of the remaining on the list are wolves. We'll see how it pans out.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Current voting tally:

    Anthem: 1 vote (Ken)
    Ken: 1 vote (Anthem)
    Hoop: 4 votes (Shade, Rasko, Mourning, bellisimo)
    Rasko: 1 vote (Fool)

    Haven't voted yet:

    SoupIsGood
    Hoop

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Since SIG and Hoop will not be able to change my mind on this one I am going to follow Rasko's theory and hope he proves right. Today we send Hoop to the gallows and hope that he shows us those pearly whites.

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem
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    Holy cow, that was impressive. I've been suspecting Fool for a little while now, along with SycamoreKen. bellisimo matches my original theory... jumped on the voting early to hang pollardfreak.
    I would be suprised at this but since its about the 3rd of 4th time that Shade Anthem and Rasko have spontaneously agreed with each other, it seems a little less impressive.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rasko
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    Everything you say is correct.

    Your vote however is not correct (in the way that you're voting for a human).

    If I had to say whether you are human or not without considering the voting behaviour, I'd say you're human. But IMO it's very dangerous to judge on the basis of feeling. I'd only do that afterwards in order to check on my results.

    Looking at PN's and the remaining wolf candidates' voting behaviour, you appear to be a wolf.

    Looking at your posting style and the facts you mention above, I never would've thought, so I'd be inclined to first hang Hoop and Ken, then reconsider my theory again.

    You're critical of everyone and everything, especially of the more vocal ones and inhabitants of the Low Countries, but you've never been criticized once yourself. Furthermore, now that I changed my vote, you still haven't received a single vote yet. And just because I reconsidered my vote, tried to back it up with a theory, and thus became more vocal after I'd been quiet for a while, you voted for me.
    1st bolded statement: Looking at my voting behavior, I'd say it looks a lot like Anthem's, assuming we still think the first 2 votes are pretty useless, we've both given our vote to 86 and then voted for Mourning, but he can't possibly be a wolf because he backs you all the time while I question your large and flawed theories (none of which have turned out to be accurate about anything so far, btw) and so I must be a wolf. He agrees with you about hanging humans and I question you about it and poof he's definately human.

    2nd bold statement: That's right, I am critical about everyone's theories because that's how you come up with better ideas. I guess you've ignored the fact that I've said that I've agreed that some theories brought up were the best thing we've come up with so far and voted in kind with them.

    You are also right that you've accused me and no one has voted for me so far and yet here I am challenging you. That's because I'm not out here to save myself from being hung. I'm out here trying to find wolves. I do want everyone to be critical of everyone else. Why? Because trusting a wolf that you just assume is human seems to me to be the quickest way for us all to lose this game. You've produced what, your 6th theory now on who's a wolf and who's not? All of which have pointed at different people, all who've been hung are human, and you still aren't the slightest bit doubtful about how you are going about this?

    You say this theory is based on projecting Pig's voting habbits to others yet you start off your list of candidates by excluding people you just assume are human prior to even applying "what your new theory is based on". Then when you find someone who fits the bill but is also on your "I know they are human list" you just brush off that they would be considered a wolf by your own theory's standard. Why doesn't your theory apply to everyone? Arbitrarily removing people from your selection sample only biases your results. Purposefully removing people who your theory points to as wolves DEFINATLY biases your results. It seems to me that your theory is actually based on either hoping those you assume are human are actually human or its based on protecting the few players who've backed you from the start.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rasko
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    The fact that you thought both Mourning and I could be wolves, even after calling out each other multiple times for being a wolf, never sat right with me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fool
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    I think its possible that either one of you is a wolf and I don't assume that any one of my suspicions is entirely correct and so I don't let the fact that two of my suspicions might lead me in opposite directions stop me from paying attention to either one.
    In the same post I make a comment about how its stupid to totally cancel out anyone from being a wolf (something you continually do) even if you think they are human because its always possible you've been played. So it is 100% possible that you and Mourning are wolves because only you and Mourning know what you are (and I guess the wolves know as well).


    BTW, what exactly is that "especially the inhabitants of the Low Countries" comment supposed to mean? Because if its what I think it is, its pissed me off a good amount and you better come with some defense of your claim that I've been prejudice against non-americans. This is a game, and I've had fun (except for the long wait times) but I take that kind of slanderous statement seriously and I am not about to let someone flippantly call me such.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Fool, it was just a joke.

    Why do you always take me so seriously? If you've seen me post around the Digest, you must know by now that I'm not a very serious person, and that I'm not inclined to make the remarks you think I make.

    I'm a bit tired of having to justify myself.

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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    The Low Country = The Netherlands

















    .... yeah, ok, Belgium too



    Btw I think I have questioned Rasky, Shade and Anthem and their voting pattern, etc. quite some in the last two voting rounds, some of the most heated debates in ANY Wolf game I can remember (and I have played in ALL of them so far) took place in that period.

    I'm still not 100%, but to me this is a crucial vote. IF Hoops a wolf then we seem to be having some sort of core. IF human then those three are wolves IMO. But, I have a good feeling about this one.

    Also IF he's a wolf then anyone who has NOT voted is a MAJOR suspect, not just the ones voting for other people then Hoop.

    Regards,

    Mourning
    2012 PD ABA Fantasy Keeper League Champion, sports.ws

    2011 PD ABA Fantasy Keeper League Champion, sports.ws

    2006 PD ABA Fantasy League runner up, sports.ws

  24. #724
    flexible and robust SoupIsGood's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    I don't want to vote for Hoop, I am heading back home today, I'll try to log on after my drive and say who I vote for.
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

  25. #725
    flexible and robust SoupIsGood's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Wolf Game Begins, Returns and it's United

    Oops I did mean to say I like the logic used in raskos list, IMO you must keep randomly guessing for a wolf until you get one, and then use the evidence from there to find the rest. SO i'll prolyl end up votin for someone else on raskos list
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

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