This concept has been discussed here and there this year, but last nights games--both the Pacers and the Pistons--give me reason to think that the theory that the Pistons peaked too early may have a lot of merit.
All you avid Pacers fans: I'm sure you can clearly remember the past three or four years where we start strong at the beginning of the year and the Pistons seem like a fuster-cluck in chaos, even with the great Larry Brown at the helm.
But, year end and year out, the tides would slowly change during the season. Some of those years, I was just convinced that Detroit was finally declining. Then, sure enough, the steady, persistant, fundamentals-focused Brown would get them in position for a strong run at just the right time late in the season.
Last night those of us with Direct TV were able to see the Pistons lose somewhat handily to the Nuggets. What was interesting to me was that Denver figured out how much the Pistons cheat upward on defense and force turnovers--(and more power to them if they are not kept honest). But Denver must have executed, literally, 20 or more alley-oop passes last night overtop the cheating defense.
Teams are starting to decode some of the Piston's secrets. This is one example of many trends that make me think Detroit is in for a difficult rest of the year. Here are some others:
1. Every team is shooting for the Pistons now, because of their starting so strong in the beginning. Atlanta can rarely put it all together, but they do for the Pistons. The Nuggets crowd goes crazy after beating them and its only a non-conference, regular season game. Besides going to the playoffs, the biggest thing you can do during the regular season now is beat the Pistons. Obviously, this forces Detroit to play at a strenuos high level all season--unlike their competitiors--and has the potential to really wear them down.
2. The technicals and flangrants and other attitude issues are really starting to increase. That can't continue if they expect to focus on winning and good basketball.
3. Speaking of good basketball, everybody has been just plain giddy about their free-flowing offense and high winning percentage, etc. But what I see is a team that has been let free by the coach to go their own way. At first it looks great, and many people probably still agree that amnesty from Larry Brown's chains is a great thing.
I see the exact opposite. LB would not approve of the less-disciplined offense. Many three are being jacked up before better percentage shots are explored. I have already mentioned the cheating on defense that ultimately can get you in trouble, and I don't think larry would put up with as much attitudinal and technical foul activity. This is going to catch up with them in the playoffs. I think Larry Brown will get the last laugh at the end of this year.
Now, with the Pacers, we have a different trend. Mind you, I don't think we are as good as the Pistons. But we are in a position to have better momentum. And with a few things going our way, we could beat them in the playoffs.
Last night's win demonstrated, to me, the opposite of the slow deterioration of fundamentals that I see with the Pistons. We cranked and cranked and cranked last night, down about five to ten the entire time, but continued to play solid defense, work for high percentage shots, and, most importantly, actually hit our free throws. (That last point may have been a fluke. Let's watch and see.)
Ultimately, we persevered and won the game. Nothing flashy, no big runs. Just solid fundamental basketball and good coaching--the kind players hate but is ultimately good for them, the kind of coaching Larry Brown provides and players try to shuck off.
One last point. The Pistons have been very lucky in that none of their starters have gotten injured. This may last, but percentages say its unlikely. And even if not, for reasons stated above their starters will be worn down come playoff time. The Pacers have been forced to develop the ability to rotate players and learn the flexibility to work together and win with strange and unfamiliar line-ups.
The Pistons haven't. If circumstances force them to do so, it will only increase the chances that they have, in fact, peaked too early.
With a few more tweaks and continued rapid development by our newbies (Hulk, Granger, Saras), the Pacers are poised to peak late. Go Pacers!
All you avid Pacers fans: I'm sure you can clearly remember the past three or four years where we start strong at the beginning of the year and the Pistons seem like a fuster-cluck in chaos, even with the great Larry Brown at the helm.
But, year end and year out, the tides would slowly change during the season. Some of those years, I was just convinced that Detroit was finally declining. Then, sure enough, the steady, persistant, fundamentals-focused Brown would get them in position for a strong run at just the right time late in the season.
Last night those of us with Direct TV were able to see the Pistons lose somewhat handily to the Nuggets. What was interesting to me was that Denver figured out how much the Pistons cheat upward on defense and force turnovers--(and more power to them if they are not kept honest). But Denver must have executed, literally, 20 or more alley-oop passes last night overtop the cheating defense.
Teams are starting to decode some of the Piston's secrets. This is one example of many trends that make me think Detroit is in for a difficult rest of the year. Here are some others:
1. Every team is shooting for the Pistons now, because of their starting so strong in the beginning. Atlanta can rarely put it all together, but they do for the Pistons. The Nuggets crowd goes crazy after beating them and its only a non-conference, regular season game. Besides going to the playoffs, the biggest thing you can do during the regular season now is beat the Pistons. Obviously, this forces Detroit to play at a strenuos high level all season--unlike their competitiors--and has the potential to really wear them down.
2. The technicals and flangrants and other attitude issues are really starting to increase. That can't continue if they expect to focus on winning and good basketball.
3. Speaking of good basketball, everybody has been just plain giddy about their free-flowing offense and high winning percentage, etc. But what I see is a team that has been let free by the coach to go their own way. At first it looks great, and many people probably still agree that amnesty from Larry Brown's chains is a great thing.
I see the exact opposite. LB would not approve of the less-disciplined offense. Many three are being jacked up before better percentage shots are explored. I have already mentioned the cheating on defense that ultimately can get you in trouble, and I don't think larry would put up with as much attitudinal and technical foul activity. This is going to catch up with them in the playoffs. I think Larry Brown will get the last laugh at the end of this year.
Now, with the Pacers, we have a different trend. Mind you, I don't think we are as good as the Pistons. But we are in a position to have better momentum. And with a few things going our way, we could beat them in the playoffs.
Last night's win demonstrated, to me, the opposite of the slow deterioration of fundamentals that I see with the Pistons. We cranked and cranked and cranked last night, down about five to ten the entire time, but continued to play solid defense, work for high percentage shots, and, most importantly, actually hit our free throws. (That last point may have been a fluke. Let's watch and see.)
Ultimately, we persevered and won the game. Nothing flashy, no big runs. Just solid fundamental basketball and good coaching--the kind players hate but is ultimately good for them, the kind of coaching Larry Brown provides and players try to shuck off.
One last point. The Pistons have been very lucky in that none of their starters have gotten injured. This may last, but percentages say its unlikely. And even if not, for reasons stated above their starters will be worn down come playoff time. The Pacers have been forced to develop the ability to rotate players and learn the flexibility to work together and win with strange and unfamiliar line-ups.
The Pistons haven't. If circumstances force them to do so, it will only increase the chances that they have, in fact, peaked too early.
With a few more tweaks and continued rapid development by our newbies (Hulk, Granger, Saras), the Pacers are poised to peak late. Go Pacers!
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